How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Maybe Russia has indeed acknowledged the inability for the Russian forces to mount a offensive, but could it simply be intended as a short/midterm measure to reequip and rest formations while waiting out bad weather and mud? Instead of a long term switch to the defensive, maybe they finally got it into their heads they need to start prepping for a real stage 2 of the war.

 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

As Steve has previously mentioned, the Russians are losing a battle group per day, and depending on the how that damage is distributed that could be two or three battle groups combat ineffective. They can't do this very for long.

There's a Polish saying "small rain from a big cloud" and that's what this Donbas offensive turns out to be. Ukrainians don't cease to amaze!

Edited April 23, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

As Steve has previously mentioned, the Russians are losing a battle group per day, and depending on the how that damage is distributed that could be two or three battle groups combat ineffective. They can't do this very for long.

How many BTGs did they scrape together for Phase 2 (Donbas/Southern Ukraine)? 75 something BTGs? So in theory they are finished in late June? I guess it will be way earlier around whitsun/pentecost weekend.

[Homo_Ferricus]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Russian forward C&C was destroyed today in #Kherson region by our artillery. Intel suggests there were as many as 50?! senior and junior officers there at the time. Maybe even a general if we are that lucky, and the Russians are that stupid.

Unfortunately this is likely to be a morale-booster for the Russian troops at the front.

[DavidFields]

What?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

How many BTGs did they scrape together for Phase 2 (Donbas/Southern Ukraine)? 75 something BTGs? So in theory they are finished in late June? I guess it will be way earlier around whitsun/pentecost weekend.

Sketchy.  22 supposedly went into the Izyum area and another 4+ came in the far east and went elsewhere.  But I've not really paid too much attention to the various reports about what is coming in from wherever.  Partly because I don't think of these as likely being full BTGs to start with.

Steve

[DavidFields]

1 hour ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Unfortunately this is likely to be a morale-booster for the Russian troops at the front.

Sorry for the sort of double post.  Do not understand this. 

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Rankorian said:

Sorry for the sort of double post.  Do not understand this. 

If a Russian general is killed it is probably a morale booster for his troops. I would be happy too if I was a Russian soldier.

Edited April 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, Rankorian said:

Sorry for the sort of double post.  Do not understand this. 

Making fun of the fact Russian officers treat their soldiers like crap, give them no context to their orders, and just generally lead them into slaughter over and over again.

[Homo_Ferricus]

5 minutes ago, Rankorian said:

Sorry for the sort of double post.  Do not understand this. 

Just some dark humor... if you listen to (and believe) the phone intercepts between Russian soldiers, they have very little respect for their officers. Obeying orders is deeply ingrained, but they don't necessarily respect the people giving them. Lately some have started to refuse the orders, which is pretty bonkers. High-ranking guys die? Good, they're the ones that got us into this mess and continue to screw us over with their selfishness and incompetence.

Reminds me of a personal experience that captures this relationship between the leaders and the led in Russian military culture--I was playing a tactical game called "Project Reality", a FPS game centered on coordination that draws a military simulation crowd. Decided to play in a Russian-speaking squad once. All were grown men from Russia (that had presumably served in the military), I speak Russian so I could play with them. The leader overbearingly gave orders, micromanaging everyone while insulting them both inferentially and explicitly. No one had room to practice personal initiative in the evolving tactical situation for risk of provoking more of his berating chatter. Everyone was confused trying to execute his half-baked orders. In the defense of an apartment building, we were overrun by an unspectacular attack that should have been repelled. There was a most odd moment--one of the guys went down wounded and asked for orders. The frustrated leader called him an idiot and told him to count to 100 (this served zero purpose and was really just an insult). The wounded man patiently counted to 100 while lying in the street bleeding out. I later asked him, "Why the F* did you actually count to 100 out loud, on mic?" His reply? "It was an order."

The American and European squads did not roll like that, generally speaking...

[Battlefront.com]

For obvious reasons I don't follow this war through mainstream media.  Not really much of a point, except the occasional Human interest story (THAT stuff they can do exceptionally well).  But a headline story in NY Times caught my eye because it was about the offensive that's going on right now.  I figured it might be fun to see what they are saying about it.  In short, it was a good consumer level summary.  One reason why... they interviewed ISW   Here's one particular part of the article that I was impressed to see:

Quote

Big militaries fight with tight organization and strict hierarchy, with multiple levels of command ensuring that large forces can move in a coordinated way, but during the current invasion, analysts and U.S. officials have said, the Russian military has abandoned that structure. It has formed 800-person-strong battalion tactical groups, and to fill them out it has combined units that had not previously worked together, and gutted the middle layers of its battlefield command structure.

Those choices contributed to the logistics and communication problems that hampered the Russian military, leading to its defeat in the battle for Kyiv, and exposed deep weaknesses in its forces, outside analysts said.

That's really a pretty good summary of what we've been discussing as one of the primary reasons Russia has fought so poorly.  The article went on to describe how big exercises they do are just for show, not to be good at fighting.  And it made clear that the experts do not expect Russia to do well with this offensive.  Especially in time for Putin's Parade, which they specifically mentioned as well.

It's not an article that will be interesting to anybody here, but it is nice to see this sort of information getting out to people who do not obsess over the details like we do

It's behind a paywall, but here it is anyway:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/22/world/ukraine-russia-war-news?campaign_id=249&emc=edit_ruwb_20220422&instance_id=59257&nl=russia-ukraine-war-briefing&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=90031&smid=url-copy&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6#here-are-the-latest-developments-in-the-war-in-ukraine

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Unfortunately this is likely to be a morale-booster for the Russian troops at the front.

Winner!

[Battlefront.com]

Two translations of conversations regarding DPR conscripts:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Crap, I hate it when Girkin and I are in agreement.  It makes me feel icky.  However, he is seeing this offensive in the same light, which is that it's not going well at all:

 

[dan/california]

This opinion is worth what you are paying for it, but I think I have had a revelation about the Ukrainian campaign plan. The mud has absolutely wrecked whatever plan the Russians had, Right? Everybody agrees on that. So not being stupid the Ukrainians are just letting the Russians bleed themselves until things dry out. Then at whatever point looks most promising, all the armor they have been husbanding like baby chicks, and the 100 plus new pieces of 155 hit like the hammer of god. The Russians in the way just evaporate, and the armor just FLOODS into the Russian backfield, and a third of the Russians in Ukraine are cut off by the third day, and prisoners by the sixth. The only thing I haven't figured out is if they do this at Kherson or Izium. To be clear I have no information except this board and twitter, but I am strongly of the opinion that the Ukrainians are going to make Long Left Flank very happy sometime in middle too late May. Which is when sane people launch offensives in this part of the world.

[Battlefront.com]

Video of the Somali Battalion (DPR) pulling out of Mariupol and going elsewhere.  I have no idea how many went into Mariupol, or if this is the sum of all that is leaving, but we're looking at 2 platoons.  Which makes me thinking of a slightly rephrased joke:

What do you call a Russian Battalion leaving Mariupol?

Two Platoons.

 

[FancyCat]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Crap, I hate it when Girkin and I are in agreement.  It makes me feel icky.  However, he is seeing this offensive in the same light, which is that it's not going well at all:

 

I recall a long while ago a bunch of separatist commanders dying. How long before Igor gets the same treatment for being too outspoken?

[Battlefront.com]

I'm sure many of you have already seen this video since it dropped (heck, 50,000 watched it since I saw it earlier tonight!), but I wanted to make sure those who are just catching up have something else to do this weekend

If I could only have access to a single YouTuber covering this war, hands down "Perun" would be my pick.  Great information presented very well.  I don't know a lot of people that can make a 1 hour presentation of military logistics riveting, but this guy did it.

Anybody who wants to think Russia can win the "long war" against a Western backed Ukraine, please review the linked video and let me know why.  Because I just don't get it:

 

[sburke]

Russian official admits sanctions are crippling the economy as the country grapples with a sell-off and mass shortages (msn.com)

“The sanctions imposed against Russia affected the situation in the financial sector, spurred the demand for foreign currencies, and caused fire sales of financial assets, a cash outflow from banks, and surging demand for goods,” said Elvira Nabiullina in prepared remarks first published in English on Friday.

The frank assessment of Russia’s economic problems contrasts sharply with political attacks launched against the current U.S. administration for a sanctions policy that failed to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. 

Presenting the CBR’s annual report to parliament this week, Nabiullina painted a picture to lawmakers of just how grim the situation was that confronted her.

Depositors withdrew 2.4 trillion rubles in the first weeks after the war broke out, eating up a year’s worth of bank profits and a third of their accumulated capital cushion.

Without the imposition of strict capital controls, there would have been a “a series of defaults and a domino effect” throughout the financial system, she argued.

It doesn't end there, either, not by a long shot, as businesses have flashbacks to what it was like when the coronavirus pandemic hit.

“Loan repayment holidays were resumed. Currently the demand for them is comparable with the first month (of) the 2020 lockdown.”

 

Numerous moratoria have also been granted that ease the regulatory requirements for banks, with accountants effectively allowed to freeze the value of the assets on their balance sheets at artificially high pre-crisis levels. 

Marking them down to reflect the reality of Russia’s shrinking economy would only trigger a crippling wave of deleveraging among lenders—either through divestments, a withdrawal of credit to the economy, or a mixture of both. 

“Today’s scale of the regulatory easing is unprecedented,” she admitted, arguing that otherwise easing measures would not have been commensurate to the scale of problems faced.

Since foreign reinsurers are cancelling their contracts with Russian companies, Nabiullina’s central bank was forced to hike the guaranteed capital to the Russian National Reinsurance company tenfold to ensure there was enough reserves to cover insured losses.

Pain only now beginning
While all of these measures and many more the CBR instituted may have prevented a meltdown in the banking system, companies starved of key raw materials and choked off from their export markets will experience severe pain as they scramble to adjust.

“The sanctions have affected the financial market, but now they will start to impact the real economy increasingly more significantly,” the governor said. 

Despite inflation surpassing 9% in February, her monetary policy committee will only target a return back to 4% for 2024. Nor would they intervene if consumer prices run hot in the meantime. 

Nabiullina said this was a natural and inevitable process as supply chains adjust to the sanctions. The central bank, in other words, is helpless in this regard as hiking its 17% benchmark rate would not resolve the coming supply-side restrictions.

“Currently this problem might not be as acute because the economy still has inventories, but we can see that the sanctions are being tightened almost every day,” Nabiullina added, predicting there was no way of telling how long this will potentially last. 

“Already in the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter, we will actively enter a period of structural transformation and the search for new business models for many enterprises.”

Translation: Russian companies haven’t even begun to feel the pain. 

[Battlefront.com]

When we see a daily report from Ukrainian sources that specify a bunch of equipment destroyed one could wonder if it's accurate.  Russians, however, come to our aid by having most of the destroyed stuff in one place at one time.  Sure does make verification easier!

 

[sburke]

Japan says disputed islands 'illegally occupied' by Russia (msn.com)

Just to give Putin something else to think about

[Taranis]

Ukraine, Donbass, towards Avdiïvka, April 21, 2022. In front of a trench firing post. On the other side, the Russian soldiers have positions. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm sure many of you have already seen this video since it dropped (heck, 50,000 watched it since I saw it earlier tonight!), but I wanted to make sure those who are just catching up have something else to do this weekend

If I could only have access to a single YouTuber covering this war, hands down "Perun" would be my pick.  Great information presented very well.  I don't know a lot of people that can make a 1 hour presentation of military logistics riveting, but this guy did it.

Anybody who wants to think Russia can win the "long war" against a Western backed Ukraine, please review the linked video and let me know why.  Because I just don't get it:

 

No way they can win it if West keeps it's resolve (we know Ukrainians will). But they can wage it anyway, Nazi germany 1943+ style. And that's a horrible thing to look up to

Edited April 23, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Zelenskyy articulates the Russian dream: “To steal a toilet and die” | Ukrayinska Pravda

"To be honest, the territory in which Russia should take care of the rights of Russian speakers is Russia itself.

Where there is no freedom of speech, no freedom of choice. Where there is simply no right to dissent. Where poverty thrives and where human life is worthless. To such an extent that they come to us, they go to war to steal at least something that resembles a normal life.

You know they used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die. And their behaviour now is just shocking. Because their dream now is to steal a toilet and die."

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Zelenskyy articulates the Russian dream: “To steal a toilet and die” | Ukrayinska Pravda

"To be honest, the territory in which Russia should take care of the rights of Russian speakers is Russia itself.

Where there is no freedom of speech, no freedom of choice. Where there is simply no right to dissent. Where poverty thrives and where human life is worthless. To such an extent that they come to us, they go to war to steal at least something that resembles a normal life.

You know they used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die. And their behaviour now is just shocking. Because their dream now is to steal a toilet and die."

 

Always has been.