How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

N/t

Edited April 17, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If google maps is pointing me to the right places, the Ukrainians are pushing back on a ten or twenty mile front southeast of Kharkiv, or at least on two axis of attack ~twenty miles apart.

From what I can see there's roughly 4 areas Ukraine is focused on right now:

• NE of Kharkiv - likely to further push Russian artillery back from the city.  Moving along road T21-04 makes sense too as it is could cause Russian pullbacks in the adjacent areas north and south to pull back.  At the very least advancing along T21-04 ensures a solid LOC for Ukraine's advance.
• SE of Kharkiv - seems a pretty obvious way to put pressure on Russia's attempts to use Izyum as a springboard.  Advancing SE means putting a lot of Russian force south of Kharkiv and north of Izyum on notice.  The moves here, so far, aren't posing a serious threat to Russian operations in the region, but it should get them a bit nervous that it might.
• NE of Slovyansk - this is the important one to watch.  The Russian forces there must be pretty well spent.  Based on the counter attacks going on now I'd say the Ukrainians are not.  Widening the area to the east creates more room to operate and could create a general crisis in the Luhansk area for the Russians.  It also affords Ukraine more opportunities to strike towards Borova.  If Ukraine should take this town then Izyum will be cut off from high volume resupply.  Given the amount of forces Russia has in the area, this would be very problematic.
• Kherson - slow and steady progress pushing to eliminate Russian positions north of Kherson on the western bank of the Dnipro.  Not seeing any real strategic push here, so I'm guessing it's more like pushing against weak points.

Steve

[panzermartin]

On other news, Russia seems to want to exploit all the influence it has on Turkey. Today it was announced it is opening a consulate in occupied Northern Cyprus. Bad news for us. It will also mean they will attack the east med pipeline deal. 

It's a bit worrying that they might give everything Turkey wants to open a second front in the Mediterranean if things escalate. We have US bases in Alexandroupoli and Souda Bay, but Turkey closed all NATO bases on its territory. We are fully complied with sanctions against Russia and weapons for Ukraine. Turkey on the other hand no... 

I hope I won't end up in some aegean island with bayraktars hovering above and under artillery fire from the Turkish coastline damn. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uwidata.com/23997-russias-attention-is-now-on-the-turkish-republic-of-northern-cyprus-trnc/amp/

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hard to tell, but it looks like the Russian knock-off of A-TACS.  I've seen quite a lot of Kadyrov's guys wearing it to the point where it looks to possibly be their dominant uniform.  MULTICAM knock-offs being the other one.  So my guess is the above picture is of Chechens.

Thanks. That's also what I initially thought (Chechens) but the absence of beards on each of the three soldiers made me doubt .

[TheVulture]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

On other news, Russia seems to want to exploit all the influence it has on Turkey. Today it was announced it is opening a consulate in occupied Northern Cyprus. Bad news for us. It will also mean they will attack the east med pipeline deal. 

 

Turkey-Russia relations are complicated though (as are US-Turkey relations). They have conflicting interests in Syria and in the Caucasus. An in the black sea as well for that matter. In Ukraine, Turkey has called the situation a war and therefore closed the Dardanelles to Russian ships (and Ukraine's, for what that's worth).  But at the same time they also have points where their interests align.

But I have a hard time seeing anything where Turkey is going to stick its neck out to support Russia in any meaningful way. There's nothing in it for them that would be worth antagonising the rest of NATO (of which Turkey is still a member - for now).  The EU and USA make up a large chunk of Turkey's foreign trade, and the financial kicking they would get for supporting Russia would be crushing. Plus having the whole of NATO unequivocially supporting Greece in its territorial disputes with Turkey in the Agean. There's nothing Russia can offer it that's worth even a fraction of what it would have to lose.

 

[Taranis]

 

 

[Taranis]

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte paid tribute to the Ukrainian team during the opening ceremony of the Invictus Games on Saturday April 16. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong) PETER DEJONG/AP

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian forces, defening Azovstal and port in Mariupol rejected to lay down a weapon. Russians started heavy shelling and bombing this territory with heavy ammunitions, including heavy bomb strikes from Tu-22M3

 

[acrashb]

On 4/12/2022 at 12:03 PM, Battlefront.com said:

This is true, however it also was very quick to adopt interim strategies and industry was quick to ramp up production to meet them.  The best example of this were field led "up armoring" of unarmored trucks.  For sure not adequate, but unlike the bits of aluminum taped to the front of Russian trucks, effective to some extent.

There were also rapid changes to how units operated.  YEARS of training were tossed out the window and new improvised methods applied immediately.  If this hadn't happened the war effort would likely have collapsed before FM 3-24 was developed.

And while I'm here, a good analysis of the impact and gaps in FM 3-24:

"How radically did FM 3-24 alter the US military’s counter-insurgency theory and practice in Iraq?"

This goes well beyond tactical innovations like up-armouring, primarily in shifting the centre of gravity from the enemy to the population.  Anyway, I thought it might of interest to you.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by acrashb

[panzermartin]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Turkey-Russia relations are complicated though (as are US-Turkey relations). They have conflicting interests in Syria and in the Caucasus. An in the black sea as well for that matter. In Ukraine, Turkey has called the situation a war and therefore closed the Dardanelles to Russian ships (and Ukraine's, for what that's worth).  But at the same time they also have points where their interests align.

But I have a hard time seeing anything where Turkey is going to stick its neck out to support Russia in any meaningful way. There's nothing in it for them that would be worth antagonising the rest of NATO (of which Turkey is still a member - for now).  The EU and USA make up a large chunk of Turkey's foreign trade, and the financial kicking they would get for supporting Russia would be crushing. Plus having the whole of NATO unequivocially supporting Greece in its territorial disputes with Turkey in the Agean. There's nothing Russia can offer it that's worth even a fraction of what it would have to lose.

 

These are all good points and I hope they are thinking it twice indeed . I'm worried because when Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 it was already a NATO member. Things are different now but Turkey has always been a two faced state, dreaming of past ottoman glory. And if things go out of hand this might be their chance. (even if they fail miserably in the end )

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Thanks. That's also what I initially thought (Chechens) but the absence of beards on each of the three soldiers made me doubt

To be clear, the uniforms are not, er, uniformly worn   DLPR guys probably wear A-TACS as well, though these guys in the picture all seem to be wearing it head to toe and that's more of a Chechen thing to do.  However, the lack of beards is problematic so maybe it's DPR guys after all.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

These are all good points and I hope they are thinking it twice indeed . I'm worried because when Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 it was already a NATO member. Things are different now but Turkey has always been a two faced state, dreaming of past ottoman glory. And if things go out of hand this might be their chance. (even if they fail miserably in the end )

I understand the concern, but I don't think Turkey will try anything.  NATO's mood for such a thing happening now is zero.  I expect Turkey will focus their attentions where they conflict with Russia and take advantage of their diminished attention and ability to resist.  If Turkey is going to do anything to piss off NATO, it would be doing something that puts it in conflict with Russia and not Greece.

Steve

[pintere]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Kids play in checkpoint. Man jokingly two times incorrectly says word "palianytsia", which Russians usually can't say in right way 

 

Amusing, if not a little sad. There’s no problem with kids playing with guns of course, but that every single one has a toy rifle is testament to the fact that war and militarism are an inseparable part of their lives. Better than submission or cowardice of course, but it’s still a shame they couldn’t grow up in a less violent world.

[domfluff]

If anything, I'd expect current events to make conflict over Cyprus as *less* likely, not more. The Turkish government is a minority one, propped up by hard-right "neo-ottomans", but the line that the ruling party has taken is one that's an intermediate one between Russia and the west. Those scales have likely shifted quite a bit over the last few months...

[CAZmaj]

4 minutes ago, pintere said:

Amusing, if not a little sad. There’s no problem with kids playing with guns of course, but that every single one has a toy rifle is testament to the fact that war and militarism are an inseparable part of their lives. Better than submission or cowardice of course, but it’s still a shame they couldn’t grow up in a less violent world.

Nama puška, njima puška, pa kome sreća junačka! 
Bolje grob, nego rob! (Montenegro / Serbia)

We have guns (as in weapons) and our enemies that invaded our lands have guns! With warrior's luck we heroes shall win!

Rather dead than a slave!

 

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I understand the concern, but I don't think Turkey will try anything.  NATO's mood for such a thing happening now is zero.  I expect Turkey will focus their attentions where they conflict with Russia and take advantage of their diminished attention and ability to resist.  If Turkey is going to do anything to piss off NATO, it would be doing something that puts it in conflict with Russia and not Greece.

Steve

Yes the timing is not particularly good. Although Turkey is gaining many points in all fronts, at least this is the picture now. The last time we followed allies against the russians, it backfired with the minor Asia disaster in 1922, where they helped Ataturk and an ancient thriving communty since 2000 bc was lost in flames...(our foolish leaders helped too of course). 

But since Steve, you haven't relaased any CM game in the aegean (although it would be interesting with terrain and mixing russian/NATO equipment ) i it is a good first sign this ain't gonna happen

[TheVulture]

Not great quality, but video of TV screen showing drone footage of what appears to be a javelin hit on a Russia tank close to the Luhansk front line. The link doesn't say that it's a javelin, but stepping through the video frame by frame it looks like the last second or so of a javelin's top-down attack dive.

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Not great quality, but video of TV screen showing drone footage of what appears to be a javelin hit on a Russia tank close to the Luhansk front line. The link doesn't say that it's a javelin, but stepping through the video frame by frame it looks like the last second or so of a javelin's top-down attack dive.

 

 

No, judging on display this is Stugna-P, just missile was lauched from upper storeys of the modular building  

[Combatintman]

Deleted

Edited April 17, 2022 by Combatintman

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, judging on display this is Stugna-P, just missile was lauched from upper storeys of the modular building  

I trust your opinion on this more than my own  And now you've said that, the missile trail on the screen does look very much like how Stugna-P missiles normally look (aside from the downward angle). 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, judging on display this is Stugna-P, just missile was lauched from upper storeys of the modular building  

Tank thought it was safe tucked in between buildings the way it was, nice shot!

[Battlefront.com]

The range appears too short for it to be Javelin.  At least for top attack mode.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Putting this one up for AKD in case he hasn't seen it already.  If I know him as well as I think I do, he'll get a smile out of it:

 

[Combatintman]

On 4/15/2022 at 3:40 PM, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is squaring  off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

I'll see your Flight Simulator and raise you map army ...

MilitaryMap - Plan your Mission

I've been noodling around this one as well and am miles off finishing but I've done enough to work out in terms of ground alone that a Russian attack is going to be a big ask.

The images above are different map/imagery sets of the same area with the red line being the approximate FEBA as of a few days ago.  The area shown is basically Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.

The broad COAs for Russian are basically:

• COA1 - Deep Envelopment.
• COA2 - Medium Envelopment.
• COA3 - Shallow Envelopment.

Of the three COAs - COA1 offers the best opportunity for manoeuvre and is the preferred COA.  COAs 2 and 3 both involve moving through severely restricted terrain and a battle for Slovyansk.  As a guesstimate, moving through the woods to Slovyansk will swallow up a minimum of three BTGs if the Ukrainians choose to disrupt the advance on the approaches to Slovyansk.  Slovyansk cannot be bypassed which means that if it is going to be defended, it will require a minimum of 4-5 BTGs to subdue.  A number of 22 x BTGs has been banded around for the force assembling in Izyum meaning that COAs 2 and 3 will expend nearly a third of the available combat power in Izyum covering the first 35km.  That is assuming that Russia can knock Slovyansk over easily for which there is little evidence to suggest that it is capable of doing so should it be defended.  It will also probably take at least a week to clear out the defenders which means that COAs 2 and 3 stand little chance of achieving a face saving "victory" by 09 May.  In fact COA 2 will definitely fail to deliver on that timeline.

Map Army Files are below if anybody wants to rummage around the detail bearing in mind this is WIP.

BAE.milxlyzRussian FLOT 10 Apr.milxlyz

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Combatintman

[Huba]

I just came across those photos. Yay or nay - is this Moskva? Are those legit and not photoshopped?