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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I don't see how this is going to work. While it looks like you are right and many Russians do want to have a "strong man" at the top who somehow restores Russia to its former glory, how can you force them to change their mind? There is no historical evidence that punishing a people for their government ever worked (correct me if I missed something). There are a bunch of countries which had sanctions imposed on them for decades like Cuba, Iran, North Korea. Did they overthrow their government? No, on the contrary isolation help the respective regime to tighten its grip.

As a German I'd say let's look at what we can learn from history: As Steve pointed out, after WW1, Germany was isolated and severly punished. What good did it do? It only served to give the Germans a deep feeling of humiliation combined with growing resentment towards democracy. The latter because a) they actually stuck to the Versaille Treaty and paid the reparations and b) since democracy really has to be learned, the democratic parties grew quite detached from the people and often only served their own needs. Added to all that came worldwide economic crisis of 1929 which struck (as far as memory serves) Germany the hardest in all of europe. Enter Hitler, the "strong man" who gave the people a feeling of "being someone again", improved the economic situation (doesn't matter that hald of it was based on plans of the previous government and the other half was indebting the country like there's no tomorrow, what counts is perception). By contrast, after WW2, the (western) Allies helped Germany and after a relatively short time Western Germany was welcomed back to international community (again, doesn't matter that this in large parts wasn't kindness but needing the Germans agains the Soviet Union and the Marshall Plan helped the US at least as much as it helped Germany, again, what counts is perception).

So, now there is Russia. After the fall of communism what happend? In Russian perception democracy just meant a weak and always drunk Boris Jelzin who stood by and watched while corrupt oligarchs together with "Western" capitalist companies plundered Russia. This in combination with seeing how the once mighty Soviet Union was now, as Russia, only called a "regional power" by western politicians that could do nothing to prevent the former enemy (USA = NATO = EU (perception...)) from encroaching on their borders. Enter Putin. And I fail to see how this would change with further isolating Russia after a hypothetical regime change.

That said, I'm no Russia-Apologist, it doesn't justify attacking another country. Still it would be a grave mistake not to see that pattern and to draw the necessary conclusions from it.

Yeltsin wasn't considered weak by anyone. He was a very strong and ruthless tyrant who took power from Gorbachev, managed to completely fool the West, while launching 4 very violent and bloody wars in just his first few years and doing a complete crackdown on whatever small freedom that people got during "perestroika".

However after horribly losing the war in Chechnya and de facto leaving it independent - he lost support among elites and was gradually poisoned by FSB (which is why he suddenly started to look like a "drunkard"), that wanted to take power for itself and after dethroning him - launched propaganda about how bad bad Yeltsin was. In fact this is standard russian modus operandi - every previous leader is bad bad.

As for isolating Russia and changing its people or not with your examples:

Cuba, Iran and North Korea are incapable of invading other countries. Sure - they can piss in someone's boots - but a major threat to neighbors they are not.

And it's made very clear to their people that if they want to live better - they have to change. If they don't want to change - they will stay backwards and get nothing from the rest of the world.

Is it possible to change russian people? I don't know, at least nowhere near as fast as Germany.

But it's of utmost importance to disable Russia. Russia is a major threat to whole planet and right now most wars on the planet are started by Russia.

Coming back to start of the reply - Yeltsin fooled the West by playing nice and millions of people suffer for it for 30 years. That "money faucet" should be closed and stay closed for good, ideally for at least a generation.

Edited by kraze
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Ukrainian pilots losses, knowingly for now

- Dmytro Kolomiyets, mayor, 39th Tactical aviation brigade (Ozerne airfield, Su-27). Duty unknown. Got lost 24th February probably over Ozerne airfield, covering the withdrawal of other planes on reserve airfield. Shot down in air combat.

- Lieutenant colonel Eduard Vagarovskyi, 39th Tactical aviation brigade (Ozerne airfield, Su-27). Duty unknown. Got lost in the night from 24th to 25th of March in dogfight with Russian jets.

-  Olexandr Oksanchenko, colonel, 831st Tactical aviation brigade (Myrhorod airfield, Su-27). Officially got lost in the night from 25th to 26th of March in dogfight with Russian jets over Kyiv, unofficilly mistakingly shot down by friendly fire of our S-300. Huge lost for our aviation. He was the best pilot-instuctor with great experience

- Hennadiy Matuliak, lieutenant colonel 299th Tactical aviation brigade (Kulbakine airfield, Su-25/L-39). Duty unknown. Got lost between 24-26th Feb, shot down during airstrike of enemy troops in Hostomel area.

- Stepan Chobanu, mayor, 831st Tactical aviation regiment (Myrhorod airfield, Su-27). Got lost on 28th February in air combat over Kropyvnytskyi airfield  

- Lieutenent colonel Oleksandr Maryniak, 16th Army aviation brigade (Mi-24/Mi-8, Brody airfield). Duty unknown. He have retired from service year ago, but returned to service after the war began. Got lost on 8th of March during helicopter attack on enemy column in Baryshivka area (east from Kyiv) - his Mi-24 was shot down. Together with him got lost captain Ivan Bezzub

- Yevhen Lysenko, mayor, squadron leader of 114th tactical aviation brigade (MiG-29, Lutsk airbase. Previuos location - Belbek airfield, Crimea). Got lost approx 10-11th of March in air combat with two Russian fighters in Zhytomyr area. Reportedly shot down Russian jet (not confirmed), but was hit by Russian SAM sytem (probably S-400 from Belarus territory).

Edited by Haiduk
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L’opération militaire russe en Ukraine est un « succès », selon Poutine
Le président russe Vladimir Poutine assure que son opération militaire en Ukraine est un « succès » et affirmant que Moscou ne laissera pas ce pays devenir une « tête de pont » pour des « actions agressives » contre la Russie.

« L’opération se déroule avec succès, en stricte conformité avec les plans préétablis », a déclaré M. Poutine lors d’une réunion gouvernementale diffusée à la télévision, assurant une nouvelle fois ne pas avoir l’intention « d’occuper » l’Ukraine.

Russian military operation in Ukraine a 'success', says Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin assures that his military operation in Ukraine is a "success" and affirming that Moscow will not let this country become a "beachhead" for "aggressive actions" against Russia.

"The operation is taking place successfully, in strict accordance with pre-established plans," Putin said during a government meeting broadcast on television, assuring once again that he had no intention of "occupying" Ukraine.


Strange definition of "success"... 🤔

Edited by Taranis
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4 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Russian military operation in Ukraine a 'success', says Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin assures that his military operation in Ukraine is a "success" and affirming that Moscow will not let this country become a "beachhead" for "aggressive actions" against Russia.

"The operation is taking place successfully, in strict accordance with pre-established plans," Putin said during a government meeting broadcast on television, assuring once again that he had no intention of "occupying" the city. 'Ukraine.


Strange definition of "success"... 🤔

Putin is trying that old tactic  of Authoritarian Dictators everywhere - Creating your own reality  and shoving it down the throats of your captive population .

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2 hours ago, Baneman said:

Isn't there at least one Moscow in the States ?
That could make for some tense double-checking of your targeting co-ordinates !

There is a Moscow in Maine, as well as the entire nations of Mexico, China, Norway, and Sweden :)  Not to mention places like Belfast, Bath, Bangor, and other places named for lesser known locations in Europe.

Steve

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10 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Russian military operation in Ukraine a 'success', says Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin assures that his military operation in Ukraine is a "success" and affirming that Moscow will not let this country become a "beachhead" for "aggressive actions" against Russia.

"The operation is taking place successfully, in strict accordance with pre-established plans," Putin said during a government meeting broadcast on television, assuring once again that he had no intention of "occupying" Ukraine.


Strange definition of "success"... 🤔

This could also be a signal.  The narrative is shifting slightly and heading towards "Mission Accomplished".  He needs something at the negotiation table - Ukraine not in NATO and Crimea neutral state, may be enough.  He can then declare "victory" and pull back "peace with honor" style, claiming a need to stop the suffering being perpetrated on Ukrainians by their own government, or some weird narrative.  

Putin is too cagey not to start seeing writing on the wall.  When/If this happens, we can start thinking about what happens next.

Edited by The_Capt
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35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Kharkiv oblast, 40th artillery brigade strike on Russian vehicles deployment

Зображення

Зображення

Зображення

Help me Jebus!  Does this look like a refueling point to anyone?  Could explain the clustering...damn...ouch.  I mean the Russians earned every hit they are taking but this one is just cringe worthy. 

Edited by The_Capt
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3 minutes ago, akd said:

Post-strike destruction at Russian forward base on Kherson airport:

 

You guys remember that Navy guy video who went on about "forward airfields as logistical hubs?"  Ya, here is the problem, you have to make them absolutely ironclad and airtight or stuff like this happens.  This is not Afghanistan or Iraq, those rules do not apply. 

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I don't know. Doesn't this just make him a ... serial killer?

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Please don't infer that he and people like him are 'serial killers'

Technically speaking, or how I should call it, he is a serial killer because he kills more than three separate individuals within a short period of time, which I think is the FBI definition of a serial killer, and this can be said about many other soldiers that are in active duty. The difference is that he, hopefully, doesn't get any sexual gratification from the killing which is what serial killers often seek from it.

Edited by BornGinger
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One weapons system I havent seen much of, and which I personally never warmed to, are the AGS type grenade launchers.

I've never liked them as a deployable weapon (i hate deploys on principal), its ROF is abysmal and it is easily ID's before it can properly suppress. Not a fan.

@Haiduk are AGS much in use in the new Ukrainian army, in this invasion? They seem to static for the current UKR mobile/dispersed infantry format...

Even better, do you have a relatively current OOB? Although I think I asked this before...

Edited by Kinophile
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On 3/14/2022 at 10:13 PM, DesertFox said:

One has to wonder if there will be something left of Kharkiv when all this is over?

Whether or not one likes it, that's definitely a good way of getting rid of those old soviet era concrete buildings and getting some more modern ones when they begin to rebuild that city.

Edited by BornGinger
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