How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

43 minutes ago, kraze said:

Whole Syrian standing army is 130k and it's absolute trash that couldn't do jack to insurgents without russia, sending quarter of that force that is much worse than russian army into an alien, heavily wooded, environment - is just BS

But sure they can send a few thousand of syrians here and they will just get wiped.

yeah I don't think Assad would want to see those guys leaving Syria.  he isn't that secure.

[akd]

Can more clearly see that there is someone running down screen out of the smoke on fire in this version:

 

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

I don't see any of that.  there are a few folks who voted against the sanctions even before that clip, but I haven't seen anything to indicate there is any change of heart just because of that.  I think you are letting your hatred of Russia color everything you see.  Not good to be that unobjective.

It has nothing to do with hatred. Russian state media not ever having live news shows is a known fact. Furthermore - media in Russia is so controlled - nobody would let anyone near the newsroom while it's on air.

Especially a woman with a huge sheet of paper with English text so conveniently written on it.

 

But let me give you an example:

In the first week of the active war russians had a similar psyop here with hundreds of POWs stating same BS about "we thought we were doing military exercise" word for word and we had tons of bots posting same-ish texts about "poor innocent soldiers that evil putin sent here" - to force a classic narrative onto our people about how "it's politicians' war" to tone down support of our army. Russian soldiers are people too, can't shoot them, you know.

Luckily that BS quickly fell apart when intelligence got docs where every single soldier signed a paper where he agreed to take part in an invasion. We haven't heard a single POW saying "durrr exercise" since. Instead we now know that all of them had an order to target civilians specifically as early as Feb 21.

Make of it what you will.

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[keas66]

Great opinion piece in the Atlantic which I strongly agree with :

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-united-states-nato/627052/

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Luckily that BS quickly fell apart when intelligence got docs where every single soldier signed a paper where he agreed to take part in an invasion. We haven't heard a single POW saying "durrr exercise" since.

Make of it what you will.

How would your average Russian soldier know to suddenly stop using the phrase?  What now the godless Russian horde is linked by a skynet like Comms set up?  c'mon man. You have spent quite a bit of time on this thread talking about the essentially subhuman Russian people on here.  It permeates every post you make about Russians.

[DesertFox]

Looks like something was fired from the side. Remote AT?

The follow up vehicles are at an awfull distance and this single tanks seems to have zero flank security. Very odd tactical behaviour.

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

How would your average Russian soldier know to suddenly stop using the phrase?  What now the godless Russian horde is linked by a skynet like Comms set up?  c'mon man. You have spent quite a bit of time on this thread talking about the essentially subhuman Russian people on here.  It permeates every post you make about Russians.

Well to be sure - Russian Artillery Men seem to have no problems bombarding Civilian targets including Hospitals  ....so I am afraid  my opinions  with regards the civilized nature of your average Russia are tending towards Kraze's  views at this point .

[Lethaface]

29 minutes ago, akd said:

Can more clearly see that there is someone running down screen out of the smoke on fire in this version:

 

Wow, indeed. So much for my T-2 theory, although I guess that's still lottery ticket luck (if he survived it).

Perhaps that person was in the trench/gully and or had something to do with the explosion. Came running from the left side of the tank, or at least that's where I first see the moving flames.

Can't really imagine someone in that tank survived.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Lethaface

[dan/california]

This could be the next piece of bad planning to rain on Putin's parade.

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1503768412266377223/photo/1

This is the newest way to track the war, using a NASA satellite that was built to track forest fires.

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

How would your average Russian soldier know to suddenly stop using the phrase? 

For example you can tell one you know he signed an agreement to take part in an aggressive war abroad and there's no need to repeat what his politruk told him.

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Well to be sure - Russian Artillery Men seem to have no problems bombarding Civilian targets including Hospitals  ....so I am afraid  my opinions  with regards the civilized nature of your average Russia are tending towards Kraze's  views at this point .

hey I get that.  I think not long back Steve gave a response after I posted about war crimes trials for those guys. But we aren't talking about even the soldiers.  We are talking about Russian civilians back in Moscow.  Americans did some awful things in Vietnam including dropping a chemical agent all over the country including on our own troops.  But that didn't make every American a sub human incapable of higher reasoning.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Bombard with what?

Shells from another convoy that will get ambushed on a random Ukrainian road and sent to hell?

I'm assuming that the Russians at least control the area close to the border opposite Kyiv. I don't know exactly where the frontline is, but I'm thinking that if Russians could be ambushed everywhere, the war would already be over.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

How many of these guys will end up seeking refugee status in Europe . I would be releasing a counter  to this by stating that no armed  foreign combatants in the Russia Army can seek refugee status in the West .

Wrong idea - ukr Need them to surrender/flee. That Golden bridge needs to stay up, otherwise they only have one option - fight, which, fine, I doubt they'll be highly effective but they will be a distraction of effort, resources, ammunition.

If they can defect they will:

1)decrease RuAF morale further,

2) open holes in the RUS lines / leave rear areas undefended

2)f#ck with Putin's narrative (always a good thing) 

3) reinforce the UKR/NATO/EU "good guys" narrative.

This is why "taking no prisoners" is only ever useful (?) in a tactical sense, and even then...

You want your enemies forces to melt away, for his own draconian efforts to keep them in line to be self defeating. If you are also uncompromisingly unwelcome then they might as well stay with the devil they know, whereas you want to say "hey, no devils here, just rainbows, bunnies and most importantly - pierogi!"

[akd]

26 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The follow up vehicles are at an awfull distance and this single tanks seems to have zero flank security. Very odd tactical behaviour.

Claim from yesterday:

Same road / overpass? Seems likely so.  Looks like the follow-on tanks were also engaged.

Edited March 15, 2022 by akd

[BeondTheGrave]

15 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Great opinion piece in the Atlantic which I strongly agree with :

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-united-states-nato/627052/

Cohen is a smart writer, but very conservative. His comments on the Poland plane program is a great example. First it was an obvious play by Poland to use the war to get a bunch of free kit, not sure why more people havn't commented on that part. 26 F-16 @ $18mil ea. is damn near $300mil in weapons transfers, half the amount the US has authorized to spend on Ukraine aid. And the transfer ultimately weakens NATO in the short term as it moves airframes out of NATO control and into Ukrainian, until either a new batch of F-16s is transferred in from the US or another base (escalating US position in Europe) or new planes are built and shipped over in the normal fashion. Second, we have ZERO clue what the back channel discussions with Russia are over escalation. Maybe they threatened to hit the Polish airfield where the transfer would occur? Or retaliate in some other way? Cohen is quick to blame the NSC for this issue but we simply have no idea whats happening behind the scenes. In fact he downplays repeatedly the risk the US runs in playing this situation badly. What happens if there is another chemical weapons 'red line' like with Syria? Or if more direct aid triggers a Russian strike on a NATO country? What if a US plane, in their eagerness to gather more ISR data, is shot down over Ukraine? Its impossible to predict the outcome of a NATO member intentionally or accidentally become involved in the conflict. Maybe the Russian army would be broken. Maybe Moscow and Washington turn in to radioactive craters. Who knows! Cohen knows this, how could he not, but choses to use this opportunity not to grapple with the realities of what hes saying, but to score some cheap political points. 

Which is ironic because I do agree with his ultimate assessment, that the US should become more deeply involved. That they should be more risky re: escalation. The US should draw a chemical weapons red line, and if Putin crosses it they should erase the Russian army from existence. But I also recognize this is a dangerous course of action, the results of which are unpredictable and almost certainly would be unpopular at home and abroad. Direct US involvement in the conflict would probably crush the anti-war dissident movement in Russia, for example. I judge that Russia is on the verge of collapse, they're weak and you should always strike at weakness. But this risks a much wider war in Eastern Europe, one which not every NATO nation might want to fight, and which radically increases the possibility of nuclear escalation. I am not, for example, certain that Putin wouldn't use nukes to save the DR/LR or Crimea from a US counterattack. Somehow Cohen seems to be, maybe hes talked directly with Vlad on the issue. 

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

hey I get that.  I think not long back Steve gave a response after I posted about war crimes trials for those guys. But we aren't talking about even the soldiers.  We are talking about Russian civilians back in Moscow.  Americans did some awful things in Vietnam including dropping a chemical agent all over the country including on our own troops.  But that didn't make every American a sub human incapable of higher reasoning.

In USA when a single cop murdered a single dude without cause, even if criminal - police precincts burned.

In Russia when their army invaded a country without cause and started doing massive warcrimes - IKEA had the longest queues in its existence.

From 60 to 70% russians support the invasion openly according to multiple non-state polls, the rest may just not give a **** - so color me unempathic.

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[keas66]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Cohen is a smart writer, but very conservative. His comments on the Poland plane program is a great example. First it was an obvious play by Poland to use the war to get a bunch of free kit, not sure why more people havn't commented on that part. 26 F-16 @ $18mil ea. is damn near $300mil in weapons transfers, half the amount the US has authorized to spend on Ukraine aid. And the transfer ultimately weakens NATO in the short term as it moves airframes out of NATO control and into Ukrainian, until either a new batch of F-16s is transferred in from the US or another base (escalating US position in Europe) or new planes are built and shipped over in the normal fashion. Second, we have ZERO clue what the back channel discussions with Russia are over escalation. Maybe they threatened to hit the Polish airfield where the transfer would occur? Or retaliate in some other way? Cohen is quick to blame the NSC for this issue but we simply have no idea whats happening behind the scenes. In fact he downplays repeatedly the risk the US runs in playing this situation badly. What happens if there is another chemical weapons 'red line' like with Syria? Or if more direct aid triggers a Russian strike on a NATO country? What if a US plane, in their eagerness to gather more ISR data, is shot down over Ukraine? Its impossible to predict the outcome of a NATO member intentionally or accidentally become involved in the conflict. Maybe the Russian army would be broken. Maybe Moscow and Washington turn in to radioactive craters. Who knows! Cohen knows this, how could he not, but choses to use this opportunity not to grapple with the realities of what hes saying, but to score some cheap political points. 

Which is ironic because I do agree with his ultimate assessment, that the US should become more deeply involved. That they should be more risky re: escalation. The US should draw a chemical weapons red line, and if Putin crosses it they should erase the Russian army from existence. But I also recognize this is a dangerous course of action, the results of which are unpredictable and almost certainly would be unpopular at home and abroad. Direct US involvement in the conflict would probably crush the anti-war dissident movement in Russia, for example. I judge that Russia is on the verge of collapse, they're weak and you should always strike at weakness. But this risks a much wider war in Eastern Europe, one which not every NATO nation might want to fight, and which radically increases the possibility of nuclear escalation. I am not, for example, certain that Putin wouldn't use nukes to save the DR/LR or Crimea from a US counterattack. Somehow Cohen seems to be, maybe hes talked directly with Vlad on the issue. 

The above simply puts you on the side of  erring by caution because Putin makes some threatening noises  - again leaving the field open for Putin to do as he wishes and only the Ukrainians paying for it with their lives .  Lets  agree to disagree I guess . I would like to see Putin confronted far more directly than he is  and if we risk escalation then so be it .

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Claim from yesterday:

Ugh! You mean the tanks in red circle near the overpass are wrecks from yesterday? Then it is even more puzzling what this single tank is/was doing here.

Edited March 15, 2022 by DesertFox

[akd]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Ugh! You mean near the overpass are wrecks from yesterday? Then it is even more puzzling what this single tank is/was doing here.

We should not assume that all this media is being uploaded in perfect chronological sequence and corresponding to the same day it is published.  My guess is that the first tank was destroyed and then the armor further up the road was engaged, but we have some media from a different perspective on the engagement published first (looks like a phone pic of screen showing a telephoto video view).

Same could be true for the Mariupol pics, as I believe some of these wrecks have already been recorded as losses days ago.

Edited March 15, 2022 by akd

[keas66]

Seems like a major chunk of VDV ( VDK ? )  units walking away from their vehicles  ?

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by keas66

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

In USA when a single cop murdered a single dude without cause, even if criminal - police precincts burned.

In Russia when their army invaded a country without cause and started doing massive warcrimes - IKEA had the longest queues in its existence.

From 60 to 70% russians support the invasion openly according to multiple non-state polls, the rest may just not give a **** - so color me unempathic.

yeah I understand.  I think we are sidetracking the thread a bit too much at this point.  Back to the original point if in fact that was just a ploy on Russian TV I think it has made squat difference to western reaction.

[sross112]

 

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Ugh! You mean the tanks in red circle near the overpass are wrecks from yesterday? Then it is even more puzzling what this single tank is/was doing here.

 

 

It was probably running away from the menacing tractor that is parked behind the house on the right side of the road in the video.  

Edited March 15, 2022 by sross112
forgot the quote

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, akd said:

We should not assume that all this media is being uploaded in perfect chronological sequence and corresponding to the same day it is published.  My guess is that the first tank was destroyed and then the armor further up the road was engaged, but we have some media from a different perspective on the engagement published first.

Same could be true for the Mariupol pics, as I believe some of these wrecks have already been recorded as losses days ago.

Yeah I see. That could very well be the case. Anyways that single lonesome tank makes no sense. May it be the first kill or the last in sequence.

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm assuming that the Russians at least control the area close to the border opposite Kyiv. I don't know exactly where the frontline is, but I'm thinking that if Russians could be ambushed everywhere, the war would already be over.

They control that area near Belarus alright but now they have 10th brigade raiding them from Zhytomyr's direction daily so we'll see for how long even that control will last.

In fact it's the reason you see Lukashenko getting a lot more hysterical about sending in the troops and putting more pressure on his troops to actually go there