Separatist push/Ukraine shove back

[IMHO]

On 2/9/2017 at 11:13 AM, IMHO said:

Would you name those "various power blocks", the sources of their influence and their views on Donbass?

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Like all government leaders/movements, Putin relies upon a web of support to maintain his position.

Steve, you have a grand scheme in your mind BEFORE you start looking at the facts. In real life it's extremely dangerous approach because that's exactly the way blunders of historical proportions are made. To quote: "President Bush said to all of us: 'I am driven with a mission from God'. [...] And then God would tell me 'George, go and end the tyranny in Iraq'. And I did." Tens if not hundreds of thousands people died, ISIS sprang up just because critical thinking process was eschewed in favour of beliefs

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

...the Russians who in 1990/1991 left the Blatics and Eastern Europe after actively or passively participating in the repression and misery of the local populace for 40+ years.

Bluntly put as you estimate 40+ years you mean children and grand children of Russian speaking people resettled to Baltics by Stalin must have been ethnically cleansed for "passive participation in the repression". I'd suggest the term "complicity in reprehensible acts by virtue of one's DNA"

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Because the Russian leadership will throw the people of Donbas under a bus in a heartbeat

Steve, decision making in Russia of today is very intimate process, you're almost seven thousand kilometres from Kremlin, apparently you don't have any first hand sources in the play. I admire how confident you're in meting out verdicts. But in reality it's just Dunning-Kruger effect - the less one knows the more self-assured one tends to be

Would you afford me the liberty to conclude our discussion here, would you not?

Edited February 10, 2017 by IMHO

[Erwin]

"Bluntly put as you estimate 40+ years you mean children and grand children of Russian speaking people resettled to Baltics by Stalin must have been ethnically cleansed for "passive participation in the repression". I'd suggest the term "complicity in reprehensible acts by virtue of one's DNA""

Hmm...  Sore point since most of my family comes from Estonia and were refugees escaping from the Soviets, suffered terribly, and some still live there.  (And my wife's family come from neighboring Latvia.)  The issue is the Russians who were settled in those nations by Stalin with the same concept that Hitler had when he tried to "resettle" all the Nazi's conquered territories.  Many (not all) of these Russians have not "integrated" and want Russia to come back.  This somewhat traitorous sentiment is greatly resented by the Estonians (and Latvians and Lithuanians btw) who would be happy for these unhappy Russians to go home.

We're already engaged in lengthy BS about Ukraine.  Now we have to start on the Baltics?

 

[IMHO]

2 hours ago, Erwin said:

We're already engaged in lengthy BS about Ukraine.  Now we have to start on the Baltics?

WFW3 - World Forum War III

2 hours ago, Erwin said:

This somewhat traitorous sentiment is greatly resented by the Estonians (and Latvians and Lithuanians btw) who would be happy for these unhappy Russians to go home.

I guess the proper question is how long people need to live on the land to be considered residents. Is progeny responsible for deeds of the fathers and if yes is there a limit to this responsibility? Do minorities have inalienable rights and is there a limit to what majority can disallow minority? When majority has the right to revert to force to execute its will? But these are all moral issues - heated arguments, no impact in the end or rather no end to heated arguments

Edited February 10, 2017 by IMHO

[Erwin]

Whether the rights of a "tribe" should override or be subservient to international law is an interesting question.  If the majority of the people/voters of a nation (defined as a "tribe") vote for option "A", is that an inviolable decision?  Or, is there some higher authority that could disenfranchise the tribe?  Europe is facing those sorts of decisions now and for the foreseeable future. 

In the above example, what if the "progeny" continue to be subversive and to work to sabotage the nation that is supposed to be home and the nation which the progeny are supposed to be integrated into?

This dovetails into another controversial current issue elsewhere re people who perhaps do not "love the host country and its people".

 

 

[Kinophile]

@DMS as far as I am aware Ukraine forces have NOT shot separatist POWs.

Separatist forces have,  including recording it, and several commanders boasted of it. 

That is a very incendiary comment and backed up by pretty much no credible reporting,and guaranteed to draw a reaction. For me, It's very close to trolling. 

Please don't corrupt this thread further. 

Why not Stay on topic?  Why not start your own thread if this is such an important topic to you? 

Honestly,  I'm kinda fed up with this: pro- Russian members of thus forum pile into every damn thread they sense is pro-UKR but never start their own on similar subjects. 

Steve,  can you not Please snip & shunt this kind of distraction into new threads? I've seen it done. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

IMHO is once again dodging the primary point.  The Russian populations were deliberately placed in neighboring non-Russian ethnic areas explicitly to undermine independence from Moscow.  This was their purpose, so why is it any surprise they are viewed with suspicion when they still overtly align themselves with Russian interests even two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union?  Why, after 40+ years of brutal Russian oppression of the non-Russian native populations, wouldn't the Russians living in these areas think that maybe it is time they left for fears both real and imagined?  It's logical that both sides have issues with the previous Soviet and Russian Empire policies.  To think it's all part of some grand ethnic cleansing conspiracy theory is simply unfounded.

In regards to Ukraine specifically, it is also understandable that Ukrainians (including vast amounts of ethnic Russians) are not at all happy with what Russia is doing to their country.  It is natural, understandable, and justifiable that Ukrainian politics are decidedly cold towards Russia as a result.  But there is absolutely no evidence that this extends directly to the Russians living within Ukraine.  On the other hand, the evidence of Russian government actions against Tatars and Ukrainians in Crimea is extreme and very well documented.  So I say to any pro-Russian out there that has a problem with ethnic cleansing and ethnic repression, let's focus on Crimea since that's how this whole war started.

BTW, anybody with Russian language skills want to discuss what is going on within Russian state sponsored media?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kinophile said:

@DMS as far as I am aware Ukraine forces have NOT shot separatist POWs.

Separatist forces have,  including recording it, and several commanders boasted of it. 

That is a very incendiary comment and backed up by pretty much no credible reporting,and guaranteed to draw a reaction. For me, It's very close to trolling. 

Please don't corrupt this thread further. 

Why not Stay on topic?  Why not start your own thread if this is such an important topic to you? 

Honestly,  I'm kinda fed up with this: pro- Russian members of thus forum pile into every damn thread they sense is pro-UKR but never start their own on similar subjects. 

Steve,  can you not Please snip & shunt this kind of distraction into new threads? I've seen it done. 

 

We cross posted.

You're right, of course.  The long established pro-Russian strategy of the 4 Ds (Dispute, Distract, Distort, and Derail) is well practiced and, sadly, effective.  The Whataboutism tactics, in particular, are hard to resit because they are usually so paper thin and illogical that it's easy to defeat them.  However, in doing so we fall victim to the 4 Ds.

Since IMHO has chosen to ignore my challenge to him, which he himself asked for, I'm going to say that he should stop posting to this thread unless he wishes to express opinions directly related to the military fighting that this thread is about.  I'm going to try much harder to resit the temptation to get sucked into to derailing this thread any further.  I hope others can do so as well.  I'm going to ask that they do.

Steve

[IMHO]

Steve, so this thread is limited to actions of war with no political or emotional labels attached and the rule is golden for all parties present? Am I correct?

Edited February 10, 2017 by IMHO

[Battlefront.com]

OSCE graph of ceasefire violations.  Note the Luhansk area violations have remained fairly steady, only the Donetsk violations have gone through wild peaks and valleys in relative terms.  With the biggest spike being the last few weeks.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, IMHO said:

Steve, so this thread is limited to actions of war with no political or emotional labels attached and the rule is golden for all participants? Am I correct?

It is impossible to have a discussion of war without some discussion of politics directly related to that war.  But the nonsense of who established Donetsk hundreds of years ago or imagined ethnic cleansing are too far off topic.  So if that's what you're here to discuss, please don't.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Don't be so obtusely pompous @IMHO. 

Please just stick to the subject of the thread.

[DMS]

Just now, kinophile said:

Please don't corrupt this thread further. 

kinophile, if your feelings are so sensitive, why to read this thread about real war? There are POWs, they are beaten, tortured, sometimes they are shot. It is reality. If you are so naive to think that there is a "good" side that never breaks laws of war... I'm sorry.

I was talking that Kremlin won't allow Ukraine to take control over Donetsk even if they would like to do it. (And some of them surely do) POWs were just an illustration to explain why. And you used it to blame me again...

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Since IMHO has chosen to ignore my challenge to him, which he himself asked for, I'm going to say that he should stop posting to this thread unless he wishes to express opinions directly related to the military fighting that this thread is about.  I'm going to try much harder to resit the temptation to get sucked into to derailing this thread any further.  I hope others can do so as well.  I'm going to ask that they do.

 

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

.  The Russian populations were deliberately placed in neighboring non-Russian ethnic areas

"Were placed"?! They are not animals. that "are placed". Were Americans "placed" to Texas to undermine the Mexica goverment? Were they "placed" to the west by U.S. goverment to drive off the natives? That is the lexicon of Ukrainian nazis. And It is very intersting, when Donbas area became non-Russian ethnic area. May be mr. Hughes "placed" Russian workers there.

Okey, please stay here with good, filtred information from right sources, telling you about fights against Russian-terroristic forces supported by intentionally "placed" Russians. I won't bother you.

[Kinophile]

Apparently Givi killed by 1)Shmel ATGM, or  2)Grenade Launcher. Both pretty accurate systems if you're experienced and have time. 

What's interesting to me about these killings is the variety of methods, and the very careful planning beforehand. Both Motorola & Givi were struck in places that minimize casualties, but contain the target, and where their duties/routine give a high likelyhood of them being present. 

Thus suggests a slow but steady recon/observation of about 2 months to determine patterns,  another 1-2 months to develop and test a killing method and a final month to strike. 

If another commander dies in a unique manner in 4-6 months then I'd put my money on there being  a UKR kill team operating behind separatist lines.

Edited February 10, 2017 by kinophile

[IMHO]

Both "nonsense of who established Donetsk hundreds of years ago" and "Suitcase! Station! Russia!" were Haiduk's - not mine  To my taste - it would be more practical to get rid of political labelling altogether - otherwise emotions would be inflamed nonetheless. Let's see...

PS Erwin, PM me if you're interested to continue - I'd rather stick to the rules of the house.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, DMS said:

Okey, please stay here with good, filtred information from right sources, telling you about fights against Russian-terroristic forces supported by intentionally "placed" Russians. I won't bother you.

Thank you.  Dealing with yet more Whataboutisms and displays of ignorance (at best) are not productive.

Steve

[Kinophile]

@DMS @IMHO  my angle is that you're distracting the thread with unrelated comments. I'm not blind to the brutally on both sides. 

So,  anything relevant to add? 

Edited February 10, 2017 by kinophile

[DMS]

 

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Thank you.  Dealing with yet more Whataboutisms and displays of ignorance (at best) are not productive.

Hm. you wrote that post to IMHO. Sorry for too emotional reaction. But still I should leave the thread.

Edited February 10, 2017 by DMS

[Kinophile]

No need to leave. Just stay on topic. 

[Kinophile]

http://liveuamap.com/en/time/01.02.2017

Always useful. Hit the MAP icon at top. 

Edited February 10, 2017 by kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kinophile said:

Apparently Givi killed by 1)Shmel ATGM, or  2)Grenade Launcher. 

What's interesting to me about these killings is the variety of methods, and the very careful planning beforehand. Both Motorola & Givi were struck in places that minimize casualties, but contain the target, and where their duties/routine give a high likelyhood of them being present. 

Thus suggests a slow but steady recon/observation of about 2 months to determine patterns,  another 1-2 months to develop and test a killing method and a final month to strike. 

If another commander dies in a unique manner in 4-6 months then I'd put my money on there being  a UKR kill team operating behind separatist lines.

There's no one motive for the killings, there's no one source of assassins.  That's why they aren't consistent in terms of time, place, or method.

The three possibilities for Givi's killing are as follows:

1.  His own men fragged him because of losses recently sustained in unsuccessful attacks and at least one major friendly fire incident. 

2.  Russia decided it was time to get rid of Givi as it has other troublesome leaders in the past.

3.  Ukraine sent in a special forces team which hid itself until it had a specific and totally verifiable opportunity to kill Givi.

Of the three, the Ukrainian assassination theory is the least likely because it is the most difficult from a logistics standpoint.  The amount of things the team would have had to do to pull this off *and* escape is immense.  There's some history of Ukrainian special forces conducting rear area hit and runs, but they are more traditional in nature (blowing stuff up, for the most part).  Which is to say while it is technically possible, it's not as likely as the other two options.

Russia deciding to take Givi out of action is very plausible.  It has a proven track record of removing, arresting, and assassinating troublesome elements within Donbas (sometimes when they were on Russian soil).  This is not to say that the Russian government was directly involved in executing the actions with Russian Federation employees, but some degree of authorization and/or direction and/or direct aid is likely common to all.

The theory of Givi's own men fragging him is totally plausible given the specific facts we know of but also parallels in history.

Either way it is totally predictable for DPR and Russian media to blame Ukraine.  They always do

Steve

[IMHO]

29.01.2017-04.02.2017 Ukrainian deployment and bombardment are shown

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, IMHO said:

29.01.2017-04.02.2017 Ukrainian deployment and bombardment are shown

Thank you,  good to know! 

[Haiduk]

Another "small step forward". Looks like it happened already some time ago and became knowingly only after clash 3-4 days ago. In Maryinka area 12 soldiers of 92th brigade repelled enemy attack and destroyed with ATGM KAMAZ with 10 DNR fighters (1 KIA, 1 lost an arm, rest were slightly wounded). Other enemy losses unknown (reports of known Ukrainian civil volunteer Roman Donik about 50 KIA and WIA from enemy side is obviosly very overestimated). Here the social network post of former (?) DNR fighter, from which can something to draw on map:

Translation: On Petrovka /plural name of Petrovskyi district, SW "appendix" of Donetsk/, more exactly on Trudovskie /settlement of Trudovskaya coal mine on west of this district/, on rotation our KAMAZ with guys has been hit with ATGM at the morning. Nothing have told about victims. I am waiting all day, but there is no communication. I already a year don't serve there. Guys are complaining, ukies just in this year also shelled them on rotation with ZU-23. Fortunately weren't any victims. For what I say - ukies already so close, that if military vehicle is driving further than bus station "Trudovskaya", it is just shooting out. There is a direct road on T-shape crossroad. When I have served, ukies have only "eyes" on that position. Now, thanks to our curators (prohibit to shot) there is strong firing position. And silence in media,

I have got through, they briefly have explained to me: yes, KAMAZ has ben hit with ATGM with direct shot further of bus station "Trudovskaya". One man torn off the head, other - an arm. Other were chopped with fragments variously. 

Here the map (sorry for bad drawing). Yellow  marking - bus station "Trudovskaya". T-shape crossroad I found only one - this is side road to horseriding club "Equicentre". In 2015 DNR forces from this position launced atatck on Maryinka. In 2016 our troops burned out enemy fortifications there, but not seized this positions - its were remaing as contest area. So, our fortified point can be in scholl or even already on crossroad itself. Roman Donik also said that two weeks ago our troopers from that position badly damaged two enemy trucks on 1430-1530 m with DShK-TK HMG (Donik's and other volunteers project of precision fire HMG and specially trained machinegunners for its). For direct hit with ATGM and HMG operators have to see a target, but because of houses close LOS on Petrovskogo street in bus styation area, I think new position is on crossroad.

    

Edited February 11, 2017 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

kinophile,

On 2/9/2017 at 7:28 AM, kinophile said:

 

Still,  to flog a dying horse, putting pressure on Luhansk could yield useful results. 

Avoid overtly using Mech units, use SOF instead to strike at valuable Russian kit (radar, SAMs, EW),  keep killing Sep leaders and Sep artillery. Ambush with IEDs on HV Russian kit retreating/incoming to/from Russia.

 

 

I like your SOF based central idea. I'd like it even more if 12.7 mm or .50 BMG AMRs with SLAP or similar were provided by patriots or other helpful individuals or groups. Something like those would punch very nice holes in anything short of a tank and make things altogether too exciting for the occupants. With a good enough shooters, they could cause a lot of expensive damage to optical and thermal sights on tanks, too.  Given what I've seen of Russian and presumably even sloppier proxy forces. API and HEI could cause no end of merriment with ammo dumps and POL. Additionally, I'd give serious consideration to arming SOF with ATGMs, preferably Corsar, but otherwise AT-7. Combining AMRs and ATGMs would create a tremendous capability for conducting ambushes at (life expectancy improving) long range and making all sorts of problems go away. Would imagine life would be more challenging for "those people" if Ukrainian SOF put a string of ATGMs into their CPs. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Ashez]

On 30.01.2017 at 5:51 AM, Battlefront.com said:

On 10.02.2017 at 4:57 PM, Battlefront.com said:

In regards to Ukraine specifically, it is also understandable that Ukrainians (including vast amounts of ethnic Russians) are not at all happy with what Russia is doing to their country.  It is natural, understandable, and justifiable that Ukrainian politics are decidedly cold towards Russia as a result.  But there is absolutely no evidence that this extends directly to the Russians living within Ukraine.  

 

The latest Gallup poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/203819/nato-members-eastern-europe-protection.aspx?g_source=World&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

Eastern European Countries' Views of NATO in 2016

Do you associate NATO with protection of your country, as a threat to your country or do you see it as neither protection nor a threat?

Ukraine	29	35	26

Comment:

Ukrainians Sour on NATO

The proportion of residents of Ukraine -- a potential NATO member state until a few years ago -- who view NATO as a threat has increased in recent years after years of steady decline between 2008 and 2014. In 2014, after NATO sanctioned Russia after it annexed Crimea, Ukrainians for the first time were more likely to see NATO as protection (36%) than a threat (20%). However, the percentage viewing it as a threat shot back up to 35% in 2016 as the Ukrainian population has grown tired of the ongoing conflict between its military and Russian-backed separatists, as well as a poor economy and rising crime rates.

So again - situation in Ukraine differs from 'US reality' and certainly it is far from black and white propaganda style.

Edited February 19, 2017 by Ashez