Russian army under equipped?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Interviews with the captured men point that it (the plan) was arranged in Ukraine. They have witnesses, they captured some guys, they have footage showing the equipment they captured, and also evidence that some guys fled into the Ukrainian border. 2 servicemen were killed. There's a bunch of theories floating around, I'm going to assume this was not something Poroshenko said "Go ahead do it" unless he's dumb enough and wants war. So far from the evidence, It's probably done by someone who is in the SBU or has good connections in Ukraine, he organized some trained men and sent them through to do some damage. Anyways, I'm not the guy who's investigating this, so I'll just leave it to that guy.

 

Sorry... I have to ask this.  For a year there was thousands of pieces of evidence, ranging from photos of Russian only equipment to captured Russian soldiers, that was verified by thousands of people, including non-Russians, that showed Russia was fighting a war in Ukraine.  Hell, even Russian citizens said quite proudly "I was there, I got paid to be there, and I don't regret it".  And yet somehow none of that was good enough to convince you that Russia is behind the war in Donbas but a couple of vague statements and pictures from the KGB (oops... sorry, FSB) is good enough to convince you that Ukraine launched some sort of cross border raid?

As we say in English, "dude, seriously?"

Steve

[Peter Cairns]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As we say in English, "dude, seriously?"

Seriously Steve the last people to say "Dude" we the Coyne Brothers in the Great Lewynski......

 

[Kinophile]

Vlads already stated couple of pages back that in any dispute between the populace and the Government he would take the side of the Government (with no caveats mentioned), so really any disbelief at his readiness to believe thinly veiled Government agitprop (versus heavily sourced and verified OSINT of the various Russian activities in the Donbass) is a little naive. The basis of his outlook is to support those in power, so questioning that is never going to happen. This entire exercise in trying to convince him otherwise is pretty futile. 

Which is fine -  he's Russian, and like all of us we are products of the society,  culture and politics we grow up in. I have no doubt that if I grew up in Russia over the last 3 decades I would also value stability and clear political  leadership. It's a pity he can't see through the filter,  or even question it, but it is what it is. 

I'm certain I have my own biases and some very very uninformed opinions about Russia -  I grew up during the Cold War and it's a little hard to shake 2 decades to of our own RUSSIA BAD WEST GOOD propaganda. 

Still though,  Vlad. .. Why not question the Government? Why not question Putin - his motives, actions and the results for your country? If it's a legal thing (and Putin has emplaced some very dangerous laws) I completely understand. But fear of arrest for dissent has never figured in your comments - it's always,  always been defence of the Government line. Which is safe, but intellectually and morally weak. 

To my Western,  European mind,  the populace should ALWAYS question the Government, the Elite, the Leadership, and they Must answer truthfully. 

(they often don't, but are then politically vulnerable to revelations).  

Otherwise the bastards will literally get away with, murder. 

Questioning does not equal rioting. But denial of the right of questioning will lead, inevitably, to violence. 

This, essentially, is what lead to Maiden -  the denial of the populace at large the right to question and vote on the pivot away from the EU.

Edited August 14, 2016 by kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Peter Cairns said:

Seriously Steve the last people to say "Dude" we the Coyne Brothers in the Great Lewynski......

If you were in the US you'd know that's not true.  But what is true is that rug really tied the room together

41 minutes ago, kinophile said:

Vlads already stated couple of pages back that in any dispute between the populace and the Government he would take the side of the Government (with no caveats mentioned), so really any disbelief at his readiness to believe thinly veiled Government agitprop (versus heavily sourced and verified OSINT of the various Russian activities in the Donbass) is a little naive. The basis of his outlook is to support those in power, so questioning that is never going to happen. This entire exercise in trying to convince him otherwise is pretty futile. 

I don't mind shaking the tree to see what falls out.  You never know what nagging doubts he, and others like him, might have.  Chisel away at the false reality and maybe, just maybe bigger changes will come.  Kinda like that Matrix movie, only without as much leather.

41 minutes ago, kinophile said:

Which is fine -  he's Russian, and like all of us we are products of the society,  culture and politics we grow up in. I have no doubt that if I grew up in Russia over the last 3 decades I would also value stability and clear political  leadership. It's a pity he can't see through the filter,  or even question it, but it is what it is. 

For the record, I challenge my fellow countrymen and women on the extreme right and left.  Not much difference in terms of mindset, but it's a lot easier to agree on basic facts.

41 minutes ago, kinophile said:

I'm certain I have my own biases and some very very uninformed opinions about Russia -  I grew up during the Cold War and it's a little hard to shake 2 decades to of our own RUSSIA BAD WEST GOOD propaganda. 

I was raised in a very "liberal" environment that included a lot of refugees from the Soviet Union and it's Warsaw Pact.  One of my most influential teachers was, in fact, married to a Russian.  Therefore, I was fortunate enough to grow up without the typical American opinion of Russians.  It's only been fairly recently that I've had a decidedly negative view of Russia.  I'm still not anti-Russian, though, as I believe the Russian people are like battered and abused children in fear, yet in awe, of their brutal father.  I understand the psychological condition and therefore have a great deal of sympathy.  And, obviously, patience.

41 minutes ago, kinophile said:

To my Western,  European mind,  the populace should ALWAYS question the Government, the Elite, the Leadership, and they Must answer truthfully. 

Absolutely.  Even the Founding Fathers of the United States instructed future generations to never fully trust government.  Some have taken that too far and are bat poop crazy about it (cough-soverign-cough-citizens-cough), but the concept is sound.  Can't stop power from corrupting, but you can stop absolute power from corrupting absolutely.  However, you have to try.  The problem with the Russians is they seem to have had the will to try bread out of them.  Millions murdered, tens of millions tortured, and the rest terrorized for near 100 years will do that to a people.

Steve

[sburke]

4 hours ago, Peter Cairns said:

Seriously Steve the last people to say "Dude" we the Coyne Brothers in the Great Lewynski......

 

That would be the Coen brothers and The Great Lebowski.... dude. 

 

[Haiduk]

Andrey Zahtej, second "sabateur", arrested by FSB turened out... foreman from Yevpatoria. And his data contains in database of "Peacemaker" site as separatists acomplice - I briefly translate screen from "Peacemaker" below. Guy was born in Western Ukraine in L'viv region, but last years was living in Cremea and have a appartment reconstruction works business . He had troubles with law and several convictions. In 2014 Zakhtiy took part in pro-Russian actions in Cremea, but soon left peninsula and have moved to Moscow region in order evade consription to army. He had ties in Russian (Cremean ?) police structures and that allowed to him to establish business of Russian passports registration. 

 

About first guy - Evhen Panov. He was local Euromaidan activist, army supporter, in 2014 as volunteer went to war, served in recon platoon of 37th motorized infantry battalion. In 2015 was demobilized and turned back to own work of truck driver on Zaporizhya nuclear energy plant. Some time ago was elected on post of chief of local organization of ATO veterans and civil volunteers. On eve of incident, for a wek, he said he want to go in hospital for treatment. On weekand went to rest and dissapear. Very hard to explain how he could turn out in Cremea with such biography. So we have some versions: 1) abduction, 2) his friend. local deputy said he directed Panov to Cremea to watch on his realty in Cremea, 3) Panov want to rest in Cremea and became a victim of provocation (of course Russian FSB know about people passed ATO) 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Haiduk

[Peter Cairns]

Sburke,

That's what you get for trusting Google. I wasn't quite sure how to spell Coen or Lebowski, so I put in my attempt and up came "Did You mean "Coyne Brothers in the Great Lewynski" so I just cut and pasted that.... Pretty slack seeing as i'd watched it on TV the night before and loved it but thought the language so outdated.

Personally I blame Steve as he wrote "in English" as opposed to "as we Americans say", but then it's nation that's idea of Irony is saying what you don't mean and then putting "NOT" at the end!

Mind you I am one to talk as Scots are arguably the worlds most sarcastic people!

 

[Peter Cairns]

Steve,

As a lecturer of mine once said about the extremes ( and sometimes not that extreme) of left and right, it's not so much about ideology as means and ends, for them the Ends justify the Means, but for most of us in a democracy, the Ends and the means are One and the Same, we exercise the things we believe in.

 Free Speech; we say what we think and let others do the same,

Freedom of Religion; we choose our own beliefs, let our kids choose theirs and respect other peoples choices.

Freedom of Assembly; we march when we want to and protest against our government even when it's democratically elected if we don't like it and we let others do the same even if we don't like them.

Freedom of Choice; we can be in any connecting relationship we like and so can others, we might not like their choices but we accept they are theirs to make not ours.

The odd thing about these and watching the US election unfolding (unravelling is probably closer) is that the ones talking most about American Freedoms are the ones that want most to impose their way of life on others. Liberal might be a dirty word for many in America but it's mostly about individual choice and the more people have it the more diverse societies become which some people feel threatened by.

That's really a big difference between US and Russian society and politics, Russians believe far more in uniformity and conformity, in being what your supposed to be. In America it's much more about being what you want to be!

[VladimirTarasov]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sorry... I have to ask this.  For a year there was thousands of pieces of evidence, ranging from photos of Russian only equipment to captured Russian soldiers, that was verified by thousands of people, including non-Russians, that showed Russia was fighting a war in Ukraine.  Hell, even Russian citizens said quite proudly "I was there, I got paid to be there, and I don't regret it".  And yet somehow none of that was good enough to convince you that Russia is behind the war in Donbas but a couple of vague statements and pictures from the KGB (oops... sorry, FSB) is good enough to convince you that Ukraine launched some sort of cross border raid?

To be fair to me, I never denied Russian advisors, and arms being given to DPR/LPR, the only thing I did deny was actual Russian ground troops in Ukraine fighting in structure. Well after talking with some friends, I've realized that's not true, there were battalions deployed during critical times. I am more actively reading Ukrainian articles that doesn't sound like it was written by some.... Anyways, now to Crimea, Steve, Ukraine has been always blubbering about with "We will take Crimea back!" https://news.vice.com/article/ukraines-new-president-pledges-to-retake-crimea and whatever. They move units close to the DPR/LPR lines, reinforce near Crimea, and when Russia reinforces its borders, we're evil. 

Now with their claims that they will take Crimea back or get it whatever, if squads of men are caught, enter a shootout, 2 of your men are killed, you capture some of them, they admit that they were ordered by some man in Ukraine who is allegedly in SBU, you have video footage showing all the equipment you have captured, one FSB operative was cutting a tire open and C4 type explosives were pulled out the tires. This shows that some of these guys are trained, if not most of them. And if this is a false flag, it is very poor and not very KGB like  don't you think it would have been better if the explosions were set off, and I don't know killed some people in Crimea?

[VladimirTarasov]

9 hours ago, kinophile said:

Still though,  Vlad. .. Why not question the Government? Why not question Putin - his motives, actions and the results for your country? If it's a legal thing (and Putin has emplaced some very dangerous laws) I completely understand. But fear of arrest for dissent has never figured in your comments - it's always,  always been defence of the Government line. Which is safe, but intellectually and morally weak.

There isn't any laws that worry me and honestly I wouldn't care if there really were dictator style laws prohibiting me from discussing (which there isn't). Vladimir Putin has done many great things for Russia obviously, the 90s were shameful which is why he does have a good reputation. Of course normal Russians criticize his mistakes, you're acting as if we don't. Now there are some Russians on the internet that are die hard Putin fans, it's the same as die hard Trump or Clinton fans. Domestic policies of his are not bad, but he still has issues in some of his domestic policies which I've questioned. The thing that makes him stand out most in Russia is his foreign policy. Generally, everyone agrees with his foreign policy.

In Russia we fund channels that provide a totally opposite perspective of the state owned channels, basically an anti-Putin's government channel. I think there is a wide misconception that Russians are being brainwashed. Well according to westerners yes but we also have access to the same information you do (internet) I personally, always supported Putin, but I know quite a few people who don't agree with him and criticize him. It's not like it is North Korea up here, and sometimes it's as if westerners think it really is a dictatorship in Russia, which is totally wrong. 

[Haiduk]

41 minutes ago, VladimirTarasov said:

 They move units close to the DPR/LPR lines, reinforce near Crimea, and when Russia reinforces its borders, we're evil. 

Em... So, we have to disband army, give independense to Luganda&Donbabwe, recognize Russian Crimea and ask Putin to forgive ?

How will you comment this ? 7-8th of Aug local administrations shared proclamations about four Russian deserters, which made shotout near the border. And suddenly 10th Aug we have "two Ukrainian diversion groups, agents network, shelling of Crimea from Ukrainian territory". And orange tent photo from touristic resourse. And full moon in TV reportage, when such moon was 19th July. Exactly in time when Russia conduct maneuvers and isthmus overflowed with Russian troops our intelligence sends diversion groups directly throw the border and more - support them with heavy fire, possibly in order Russian thought nothing ). And anyway - for what to send groups with fight, when they could just sit in bus with women and children and сalmly cross the border as if they go to the sea. All equipment already was waiting for them inside Crimea. Bad work. If even our recon groups operate in Crimea - this is our territory, occupied by Russia. This give for us legitimate rigth to conduct any conventional operations for liberetion. To blow up HE in order to foil resort season ? In Armiansk and Djankoy, where no sea. How stupid. Crimean resort season dead even without bombs. Impossible to kill what is already dead %) 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Haiduk

[Peter Cairns]

Vladimir

14 minutes ago, VladimirTarasov said:

"We will take Crimea back!" https://news.vice.com/article/ukraines-new-president-pledges-to-retake-crimea and whatever. They move units close to the DPR/LPR lines, reinforce near Crimea, and when Russia reinforces its borders, we're evil. 

if you are going to quote an article at least read it first, particularly this bit;

  "No mention was made on how Ukraine planned to reclaim the Black Sea peninsula"

Ukraine, and indeed pretty much the rest of the world don't accept it's your border. Even with a majority of ethnic Russians, a notion for nationhood most of the world now rejects, Russia's actions in usurping the democratic process negate it's claim.

Three things the worlds leaders unite behind;

Taking parts or all of someone else country, Overthrowing people like themselves and Leaders like them being killed. 

Britain spends a fortune defending the falklands, a worthless patch of moorland in the South Atlantic with more troops than civilians not because of it's value or imperial pretentious but because Argentina tried to take it by force. Most americans couldn't find Kuwait on Map (a lot still couldn't) but they went to war to liberate it. Few western Governments like the Turkish President but they all opposed the Coup attempt.

Regardless of the merit of a claim using force unilaterally to solve it invariably undermines it.

Putin seems to believe that the west lacks resolve and that possession is 9/10 of the Law, but he's wrong. he may believe in a form of the Brezhnev Doctrine;

"When forces that are hostile to socialism try to turn the development of some socialist country towards capitalism, it becomes not only a problem of the country concerned, but a common problem and concern of all socialist countries."

Not surprising given his background but the facts remain that that Doctrine was applied to justify the Invasion of Czechoslovakia, which is now part of the EU and Nato. As Steve has pointed out, in the long run Russia will lose. It might take 30 years, but when Putin is gone and things are so much better on the EU Ukrainian side the people of Crimea will turn to the West and for the same reason Russia will let them. It's like the Cold War we have all the time in the world to sit and financially stave you out.

Peter.

[VladimirTarasov]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Em... So, we have to disband army, give independense to Luganda&Donbabwe, recognize Russian Crimea and ask Putin to forgive ?

Oh no, I think there is a misunderstanding, Minsk 2? Do you remember this? I don't have a problem with Ukraine moving in but I also don't get why Russia is being condemned for moving in to reinforce their border.

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

How will you comment this ? 7-8th of Aug local administrations shared proclamations about four Russian deserters, which made shotout near the border. And suddenly 10th Aug we have "two Ukrainian diversion groups, agents network, shelling of Crimea from Ukrainian territory". And orange tent photo from touristic resourse. And full moon in TV reportage, when such moon was 19th July. Exactly in time when Russia conduct maneuvers and isthmus overflowed with Russian troops our intelligence sends diversion groups directly throw the border and more - support them with heavy fire, possibly in order Russian thought nothing ). And anyway - for what to send groups with fight, when they could just sit in bus with women and children and сalmly cross the border as if they go to the sea. All equipment already was waiting for them inside Crimea. Bad work. If even our recon groups operate in Crimea - this is our territory, occupied by Russia. This give for us legitimate rigth to conduct any conventional operations for liberetion. To blow up HE in order to foil resort season ? In Armiansk and Djankoy, where no sea. How stupid. Crimean resort season dead even without bombs. Impossible to kill what is already dead %) 

 

Have you even looked into the evidence? It's as if you're ignoring the fact that Ukrainian citizens with a military past have been captured here. If you really think Crimea belongs to Ukraine which certain people didn't get a say in what happens, I'd like you to ask the Crimean people, who voted to leave Ukraine, and join the Russian Federation. But of course, Russians and Ukrainians in Crimea are under gun point by the Russian military, and forced to live in the Russian Federation. They are too chicken to take arms and fight the evil Russian enemy out their territory, or even mass protest. I'd like to ask what you think about this incident, and how it happened? 

[Peter Cairns]

57 minutes ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Have you even looked into the evidence? It's as if you're ignoring the fact that Ukrainian citizens with a military past have been captured here.

But, that doesn't make them spies....They are Ukrainians, but so are another 340,000 of Crimea's 2.3m population. They have a military background, but given that until recently like Russian the Ukraine had mandatory military service it would be odd if they didn't. So far those put on show seem to have more links to Moscow that Kiev and it's increasingly looking like some gangsters caught by the police have been "convinced" to say they are Ukrainian agents.

This isn't fooling anyone...well with the obvious exception of you!

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

 I'd like you to ask the Crimean people, who voted to leave Ukraine, and join the Russian Federation.

So would we all, in a free and fair election held and overseen to international standards, with funding limits, fair treatment by the media and no intimidation. Voting to join Russia when that is what the State wants when the State can check how you vote and you work for a State or State supporter enterprise and live in a State owned apartment or have a State pension is a bit of a no brainer. 

It's bad enough you believe this saboteur nonsense, but you don't even understand how your own system works.

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

They are too chicken to take arms and fight the evil Russian enemy out their territory, or even mass protest.

No, but like pretty much everyone who has seen the way Russia deals with protests, from the Czars, through Stalin to today, that's a very quick way for nasty things to happen. Ukrainians are no more chickens than the hundreds of thousands of patriotic Russian POWs who didn't overcome their German guards.

 

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

I'd like to ask what you think about this incident, and how it happened?

I think people have covered that, the FSB have beat up some punks put them in front of a camera and told them what to say, it's as believable as an American capture by ISIS burning the Stars and Stripe when surrounded by hooded men with knives. Contrast these people who are supposedly Special Forces with a young Female Ukrainian Pilot during weeks of trial. Given her defiance do you not think commandos would put up a better showing.

You don't believe this because it's convincing you believe it because you want too.

Peter.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Generally, everyone agrees with his foreign policy.

Which is a little baffling, considering how much that policy is costing you economically now and over the next decade due to lost investment and technological development.

Maybe his successor wont feel the need to project so hard. But I doubt it.

[VladimirTarasov]

1 hour ago, Peter Cairns said:

Ukrainians are no more chickens than the hundreds of thousands of patriotic Russian POWs who didn't overcome their German guards.

That was a great comparison of what happened in Crimea to heroic Russians and Ukrainians who have been captured by Fascists fighting a war against them. I'm not saying Ukrainians are chicken anyways, I said that because obviously majority of Ukrainians and Russians would rather live in the Russian Federation. There is a Crimean guy on the forum, you can ask his perspective, and the perspective of the people around him. Taking Crimea is not the same as Russia somehow got a part of Alaska because some how there is a majority of Russians there and wanted Russia and there is a history of Alaska being Russian. It's because there is an obvious disgust towards what happened in Kiev, because of not being able to have a say in what happened in Kiev and the government of the country radically did a 180 degree turn. And obviously, Russians and Ukrainians who are close to Russia, will revolt against this, the same way people in Kiev revolted against the "corrupt, bad guy" in power. I'm not saying Russia felt the need to be the good guy here, obviously there is a geopolitical war going on behind the curtain, but it was what the people of Crimea wanted. 

1 hour ago, Peter Cairns said:

No, but like pretty much everyone who has seen the way Russia deals with protests, from the Czars, through Stalin to today, that's a very quick way for nasty things to happen.

Oh yes Stalin and Putin do the same thing. Come on, If you really think Russia is against protests like Stalin was, read into the details of the protests, and maybe the laws they were breaking. This is ridiculous you just compared Putin to Stalin.

1 hour ago, Peter Cairns said:

But, that doesn't make them spies....They are Ukrainians, but so are another 340,000 of Crimea's 2.3m population. They have a military background, but given that until recently like Russian the Ukraine had mandatory military service it would be odd if they didn't. So far those put on show seem to have more links to Moscow that Kiev and it's increasingly looking like some gangsters caught by the police have been "convinced" to say they are Ukrainian agents.

I am very sure Poroshenko did not green light this plan, but someone with good connections in Ukraine. Probably the far right group, because this has got to be the worst false flag that Russia is being accused with, a good false flag would actually be letting the bomb go off and actually kill people... that's when you have anger build up in the people. In the past Ukrainian far right groups have destroyed power line to Crimea and blocked it from restoring power to Crimea, I don't see how even an event like this is blamed on Russia. The guy who arranged all this is obviously motivated against Russia. I'm not drawing conclusions, other than this is obviously not a Russian false flag. 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

I'd like to ask what you think about this incident, and how it happened? 

I will not continue political flame here, so answer only on last question.

Several Russian troopers deserted with small arms from field camp. Some said they were former Ukrainian servicemen, which betrayed Ukraine and enlisted to Russian army. They were under continous humilitation and bully from the side of Russian officers. So when maneuvers have started, they catch a moment and deserted. Some said they wanted to run in Ukraine back. I can't confirm that (other rumor level version - deserted two officers with interest information, they breakthrow to Ukraine, our recon group was directed to meet them, during operation engagement with Russian troops took place, our recons really came on occupied territory, but successfully turned back). On their way deserters encountered FSB group, shot one officer and escape. In this day Russia have closed all chekpoints w/o explainations. During next day police and local administrations were issued leaflets, where was written about operation against four deserters. 8 Aug group have other engagement, when soldier of 247th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division was wounded and soon have died, because of untimely evacuation. In social networks, twi, FB - nobody wrote about "intensive shelling" from Ukrainian territory in that day, only about some shots hearing and checkpoints closing. 

So, 7,8,9th Russia after "double diversion raid", "armor support" and "Crimea territory heavy shelled" keep silence, and ta-daaam  - 10th FSB issued own statement! Interest, that Russia - "victim of terror" even not gathered a meeting of UN Security Counsil, instead this made "aggressive terrorist state" -Ukraine  When Turkey shot down Su-24 reaction was immediately! Looks like evil brains of Russian "hawks" invented how from common criminal incident with deserters to concote international scandal - blaming Ukraine in "terrorism and terroristic attack", which can solve several questions:

- by Russian military doctrine this is Casus Belli, which give a right to strike Ukrainian "terrorist bases". Not shure Putin will do that, but this is clear intensification of pressure on Ukraine by military chantahe. For what ? In order to force us execute Minsk2 on Russian conditions. 

- a way to cancelling sanctions. 

- a way to tarnish Ukraine in order West canceled support of Ukraine as "terroristic state" and toughly force Ukraine to execute Minsk2 on Russian conditions

- reason for leaving Normandy format negotiations

How this to do? Easy ! Make a statment about uncovered Ukrainain intelligemnce agents network and merge this with "war" on the border. But re-name deserters in Ukrainian sabateurs. Pro-russian activist Zahtey in role of "ukrainian sabateur" this is a real fail of FSB. A role of Panov need to research, we havn't firm information how it turned out in Crimea. But looks like FSB had information about his ATO service and use it (abduction from Ukraine territory or detention in Crimea). Interest, that Panov on camera named "organizer" of "terroristic acts" and other "terrorist group" members - all his former comrades of 37th mot.inf. battalion. I don't believe in Panov is FSB agent, though after Savchenko all may be...  

 

   

Edited August 14, 2016 by Haiduk

[VladimirTarasov]

@Haiduk So you're also agreeing that Ukrainian troops made it into Crimea? You confirm the shootout, ect ect. And in the interrogations it also corresponds with what you are saying. So Ukrainian recon makes it into Russian soil, has a shootout and successfully makes it out with two officers? So all this happened, and Russia decides to issue a casus belli against Ukraine by abducting Panov, getting everything together and doing a false flag operation. Or am I missing out on something?

 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

If prior military service in a foreign country is enough evidence to prove malice, I've got some Russian terrorists to round up.  There's an old guy down the street who was once a vile communist murderist 1st class (or whatever a "clerk" is in the Soviet Army of Rapists Supreme), and I'd better get him out of the picture before he tries to make the miners of this state revolt and carve off the People's Republic of Cascadia.

This is has sort of gone from "debate between two very different perspectives" to "Kafka" at this point.  Needless to say given the Russian security apparatus's tendency to "shop" for people to accuse, I imagine any one of us stands a remote chance as showing up as a NATO death commando should we present the chance.

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Or am I missing out on something?

 

This thread has pages and pages dedicated to that.  So much so it has gotten boring.  Believe what you want, no one here is apparently going to change your mind no matter how much evidence is shown to the contrary.  You have the fearless leader you deserve.  Good luck with your economy and political freedoms.  If you don't exercise them, you won't miss them.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

@Haiduk So you're also agreeing that Ukrainian troops made it into Crimea? You confirm the shootout, ect ect. And in the interrogations it also corresponds with what you are saying. So Ukrainian recon makes it into Russian soil, has a shootout and successfully makes it out with two officers? So all this happened, and Russia decides to issue a casus belli against Ukraine by abducting Panov, getting everything together and doing a false flag operation. Or am I missing out on something?

 

I only confirm skirmish your FSB and paratroopers with your deserters, that officially claimed by Crimean authorities 8th Aug. All other - internet rumors like "my source in Dzhankoy told me..." and no more. But obviously that deserters through three days have turned into "ukroDRG". And of course no any evidence of "heavy shelling from Ukrainain side". If Putin is ready to pay very high price for "forcing Ukraine to peace", he is welcome, but let he not expects repeating of August 2014. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

To be fair to me, I never denied Russian advisors, and arms being given to DPR/LPR, the only thing I did deny was actual Russian ground troops in Ukraine fighting in structure.

Which was painfully obvious that they were.  Which is my point.  You have an extremely poor sense of judgement of what is fact and fiction.  When this is clearly pointed out, to the point that even you have to admit this, you still claim to know what is going on and that everybody else is wrong.  It's a pattern that everybody else sees very clearly. 

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Anyways, now to Crimea, Steve, Ukraine has been always blubbering about with "We will take Crimea back!" https://news.vice.com/article/ukraines-new-president-pledges-to-retake-crimea and whatever.

Of course they are.  If some nation swept in and stole a big chunk of Russia would you be saying "oh, that's OK.  Easy come, easy go"?  No.  In fact, the bulk of the Caucuses absolutely and independently rejected Russian control and Russia killed hundreds of thousands to retake it.  So I am not sure why you think Ukraine, and the rest of the world, should accept an illegal annexation and occupation of Ukrainian territory.  By "illegal" I mean both according to international law as well as the Russian constitution.

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They move units close to the DPR/LPR lines, reinforce near Crimea, and when Russia reinforces its borders, we're evil. 

Since Russia is the aggressor and is the *ONLY* reason there is a war in the first place, not to mention keeping it going, this is logical.  Because Russia has already invaded Ukraine multiple times in the last 2 years it would be utterly incompetent of the Kiev government to assume that Russia won't do it again.  Especially since in the prior week Russia was moving forces to the Crimean border all on its own.

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Now with their claims that they will take Crimea back or get it whatever, if squads of men are caught, enter a shootout, 2 of your men are killed, you capture some of them, they admit that they were ordered by some man in Ukraine who is allegedly in SBU, you have video footage showing all the equipment you have captured, one FSB operative was cutting a tire open and C4 type explosives were pulled out the tires. This shows that some of these guys are trained, if not most of them. And if this is a false flag, it is very poor and not very KGB like  don't you think it would have been better if the explosions were set off, and I don't know killed some people in Crimea?

Your government has a history of lying.  Not just with this war but for the last 100 years.  It makes a policy decision and then invents a justification.  It is a standard Soviet and Russian tradition which we have seen time and time again in this war.  MH-17 is the most clear example of this.

But since you want to talk about "evidence", let's do it.  This should be fun!

1.  photos and video of the captured explosives and other stuff.  When Ukraine shows videos of things like T-72B3 and T-90s the Russians say it's "obviously faked".  But when the FSB shows non-descript stuff, much of it I could have made in my kitchen, it's considered "evidence". 

2.  Russia claims that the Ukrainian Army used artillery, tank, and BMP fire to cover the "saboteurs" entry into Crimea.  There is no evidence of this happening and if it had the Russian military would have for sure responded with their own fire.  Or can you document any events where Russian forces were attack in which they did not respond?  No, I thought not.

3.  We have two "confessions" so far.  At least one looks like he was beaten and Russian "confessions" are traditionally acquired that way.  Further, some of the stuff that they confessed to is the stuff that's unlikely to be true, such as having the Ukrainian Army shooting at Russian forces without a military response from Russia.

4.  There was apparently a video shown on Russian TV allegedly from the "saboteurs" which was quickly debunked.  I'll post more abut that after I get the original.

5.  There's been no names of the allegedly dead Russians.  No big state hero worshiping events, funerals, expressions of outrage, etc.  That's very, very un-Russian.

6.  Russia waited 3 days to make this "act of terrorism" public.  Who here believes that Russia, or any nation, would wait THREE DAYS to make such a thing public if it really happened?  No, not even remotely probable.  However, it does take three days to create a fake story and kidnap a bunch of people.

7.  The story makes NO SENSE!  Ukraine has shown zero interest in conducting terrorist actions against any Russian or Crimean targets, though Ukraine can show lots of evidence of Russians doing it on Ukrainian soil.  Quite proudly, in fact.  Anyway, the notion that Ukraine's military would fire on Russian frontline forces to insert a couple of guys who could have more easily gone by boat is the sort of story only an utter fool would buy.  Therefore, everything that Russia puts out to support this theory presumes that we are all fools.  I'm not a fool

Here's a more detailed examination of the "evidence" so far, including a counter theory:

http://www.interpretermag.com/day-907/?pressId=14807

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The Ukrainian news site Leviy Bereg (LB) has a completely different version of the incidents based on its sources.

They say there were two incidents; the first, on the night of August 6-7, involved Russian soldiers serving near the Armyansk checkpoint who opened fire on their own Russian border guards in Russian-occupied Crimea, who had sailed up to them on speedboats. The border guards at the checkpoint then fired back. As a result, one border guard was killed and four people were wounded (one soldier and three border guards). The border guards are part of the FSB; hence the story of one FSB officer killed.

Then on the night of August 7-8, Russian soldiers once again opened fire at the Armyansk checkpoint, this time on a civilian automobile headed toward Kherson Region. According to this version of the story, five Russian soldiers stopped the car of Khafiz Mukhamadov, a 23-year-old resident of the village of Suvorovo. With him in the car was his 20-year-old girlfriend. They were headed to visit relatives in Krestovka in the Chaplyn District in Kherson Region. According to sources, the soldiers, who were intoxicated, demanded that the young people supply more documents to prove their identity besides their passports. But Mukhamadov asked who were they to demand this, and refused to show them anything more.

An argument broke out, the soldiers fired on the car and after the two passengers tried to run away, the soldiers fired on them as well. Six bullets struck Mukhamadov, and his girlfriend was lightly wounded. When the soldiers realized what they had done, they fled, but three of them were later detained. 

Mukhamadov is alive and came out of a coma yesterday and is in the city of Krasnoy in the hospital, under armed guard, according to LB's sources.

Local authorities claimed Mukhamadov was carrying explosives which is why he was shot. When a group of local residents began to gather apparently to ask questions, police dispersed them.

All the checkpoints were closed August 7 supposedly due to a shootout, according to eyewitnesses who heard this claim and also heard gunfire. LB's sources say that the incident involving Russian soldiers misbehaving accounts for everything in the FSB's story.

While it is understandable is that the FSB might wish to conceal such examples of disorder in the ranks, it's not clear why they would then arrest Ukrainians in connection with the incident.

So far, the FSB only says that it has arrested residents of Crimea and Russian citizens, but neither the number or the names have been released.

The narrative woven so far makes for a good morality tale from the perspective of the Kremlin: a Crimean Tatar, a patriotic Ukrainian activist and former volunteer fighter, and a Russian involved in cross-border business with Ukraine -- all the kinds of people Putin wishes to discourage.

Whether this is true or not, in part or in full, we do not know for sure.  However, it is absolutely more plausible than the laughable MH-17esque story coming out of Moscow.  Plus, if someone held a gun to my head and told me to pick either a random blog or the Kremlin's official story as being the real one or not, without any information at my disposal I would pick the random Ukrainian blog.  Why?  Because I love Ukraine and hate Russia?  No, because in the last 2.5 years the credibility of each has been pretty firmly established, and not in favor of Russia.  Obviously I don't have a gun to my head so I'm going to examine both critically, but the source of such fun things as SU-25 aircraft defying the laws of physics and thousands of troops taking over Crimea with weapons and vehicles bought on eBay is presumed lying until proven otherwise.

Steve

[Peter Cairns]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Plus, if someone held a gun to my head and told me to pick either a random blog or the Kremlin's official story as being the real one or not,

Be honest Steve, You'd do what we all would; ask the guy with the gun which story he wanted you to pick, pick that one and sing like a canary....

A bit like the guys the FSB just paraded!

[Battlefront.com]

A more detailed article about the more plausible scenario of what happened. 

http://en.news-4-u.ru/turchinov-called-the-data-about-the-preparation-of-terrorist-acts-in-the-crimea-an-attempt-to-hide-the-shooting-of-drunk-russian-military.html

Note that the KGB/FSB is well known for the concept of "when it rains lemons, make lemonade".  Meaning, when something embarrassing happens find a way to reshape it and pin it on someone else so a to get a benefit.  However, it's more difficult to do in reality than in theory.  First, the cover story has to be improvised very quickly, which understandably results in mistakes being made.  Second, since whatever really happend is fact and the story is fiction, it is inevitable that the story will fall apart.  In the old days that used to take time, however third point is that there is an increased ability to quickly fact check Russian claims. This allows debunking to start almost immediately, as it did in this case.

While many Russians and international right wing extremists buy into these poorly constructed "alternate realty" events, the rest of the world does not.  When the lie is for purely domestic consumption (such as covering up a mine collapse, train disaster, or what not) the opinion of the outside world doesn't matter as much.  However, when it is an international event then these sorts of things tend to reinforce the notion that Russia can not be trusted.  For sure the West isn't buying this BS, which means Russia will be trusted even less in the future.  Provided, of course, it is possible to trust Russia even less.

Steve

[Peter Cairns]

Steve,

I agree almost totally with your assessment of how the FSB tried to make this into something it never was, with one caveat.

In a system where the truth is only ever what you want it to be and facts can be changed at will a culture developed that means even those in charge trying to from above to manipulate events have a distorted picture. In one respect  you can see how those further up would want to hush up an embarrassing story but it is equally possible that those below feed them rubbish.

One of the mistakes I think we made with Milosevic in Bosnia was to see him as being in full control, able to let lose the dogs of war at his command, when in reality I saw him more like an old man being dragged by his dogs. It wasn't so much when we attacked he let them off the leash and told them to kill, as when we hit him they broke free and went on the rampage. As with Yugoslavia under Tito or Iraq with Saddam and indeed Libya and Syria when a dictator who has ruled by fear weakens or falls the products of a culture of fear are all that is left to pick up the pieces and as we have seen there is all to often fragmentation around clusters of groups every bit as brutal is their former master.

In Russia thank goodness it's not the terror and arbitrary violence of the Stalin years , but it is a culture where you say what needs to be said, do what needs to be done and evidence is what it needs to be to serve a purpose, as earlier the Ends Justify the Means and the Facts are what you require them to be.

it's the replacement of due diligence with simple expediency. Whats in the Tin isn't reliably whats on the label

This creates culture where at all levels no one can be sure what is fact or fiction and all sources of information become suspect. Putin might be pulling the strings but they are coated in treacle and he is doing it in the dark. 

In the same way I wouldn't rule out that some hapless right wing Ukrainian nut was trying to make some mischief in Crimea, but that is more akin to an ISIS lone wolf than a Kiev run operations. In the same way I actually think that despite their best efforts Putin and those around them probably have a blurred view of what is going on and less control that they and indeed we think over events.

Going back to an earlier point it's also why figuring out what the Russian army is capable of is so difficult and why I still think they might be less capable than you think, if not by much.

Peter.