Russian army under equipped?

[John Kettler]

Ivanov,

What to you mean by "used for the aerial attacks," please? I didn't really understand the video you posted until I saw the caption on the keyframe. I found this one in the sidebar to yours over on YT, and I'm not sure what happened. I don't speak French, but I think it says the named UA battalion abandoned its position. I don't know what happened, but the level of destruction is impressive. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

I don't want this thread to get locked up.  Debating the 2003 invasion of Iraq will cause it to be locked up because it is off topic and is something that tends to never end once started.  So let me just tie together what was said about it already and please, please, please just drop it.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was technically legal, but was both unnecessary and also unwise.  Something that pretty much everybody but the most hardline, reactionary right wing people fully admit.  However, the fundamental reasons for going to war against Iraq were factual even if exaggerated.  The debate about going to war was carried out in public and the whole world had a chance to weigh in, not just the American people.  The fact that most people view the Iraq war as a mistake that was largely carried out, and ineptly led, by a very small group of idologues is the direct result of a society and government system that allows the truth to come out, even if belatedly. 

Here's a contrast of systems of government.  78% of Americans polled in a large 2014 poll viewed the war in Iraq as a mistake.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iraq-turmoil/not-worth-it-huge-majority-regret-iraq-war-exclusive-poll-n139686

By contrast, polling in Russia showed that almost the same percentage (65-70%) of Russians don't even think they are fighting a war in Ukraine.  Even Vladimir, for all his denials, justifications, and minimizations knows this is untrue.  So give Vladimir credit for being at least better informed than the average Russian.

http://www.stopfake.org/en/supporting-a-war-that-isn-t-russian-public-opinion-and-the-ukraine-conflict/

To bring this full circle... I'd rather be a citizen of a country that carried out a poorly chosen war after a dishonest public debate than to be a citizen of a country that engages in wars without admission and ensures there is no public debate through all forms of repression.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Ivanov,

What to you mean by "used for the aerial attacks," please?

I think he meant "top attack", in the form of bomblets rather than conventional HE artillery or rocket fire.  Russian artillery was fairly active in Ukraine during July, including within Ukraine as Ivanov points out.

Quote

I found this one in the sidebar to yours over on YT, and I'm not sure what happened. I don't speak French, but I think it says the named UA battalion abandoned its position. I don't know what happened, but the level of destruction is impressive.

The unit in question was a battalion of the 72nd Mech Infantry Brigade. This destruction was the result of a massive bombardment from Grad launchers on Russian soil hitting a battalion that was "caught napping" out in the open.  This was well documented on the Russian side as well as the Ukrainian side.  Here's some footage, from within Russia, of the attack in question:

 

Here is an article on the artillery activities of Russian Armed Forces on Russian soil in the vacinity of Gukovo and Kuyjbyshevo.  The article also covers other activities of Russian artillery into August.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/02/17/origin-of-artillery-attacks/

An interview with survivors of the attack:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/remembering-the-shelling-we-saw-a-glow-they-were-burned-alive

This was the earliest part of the Russian counter actions against the Ukrainian offensive.  The 72nd Mech was part of the force moving to cut in behind Luhansk from the south and sever all connections with Russia.  It had already successfully cut Donetsk's southern connections to Russia and was on the verge of accomplishing its mission despite at least 2 Russian Army BMGs fighting along the northern portion of the Ukrainian push.  The video Ivanov linked to is from the pinnacle battle of that portion of the front... Saur-Mogila.  Once Russian Federation forces helped push Ukraine off of those heights the positions south became untenable.  The larger Russian counter offensive that started in mid August finished the destruction of the Ukrainian force by coming in behind it and driving to Ilovaisk. 

Steve

[John Kettler]

Steve,

Fantastic material I never saw before and very much appreciate! Love that the bellingcat folks are doing old-fashioned crater resection.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Since some material is already in this thread, I thought I'd mention that South Front.org has a very detailed video on the whole purported cause of the current brouhaha between Ukraine and Russia. By detailed, I mean hi-def video of what was allegedly found, people being hauled away, large Russian force movements--by train with AFVs and other weapons not shrouded and convoys with vehicles closely spaced en route to named locations, etc. Here's the information on the organization itself and its clearly stated goals. From everything I can see, this is an international OSINT group which has a page overflowing with what appear to be serious articles. It also has lots of videos on YT.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited August 13, 2016 by John Kettler

[Peter Cairns]

9 hours ago, Splinty said:

 

Peter , the labs, scientists, and technicians, were all still there. Saddam could have restarted his chemical warfare programs at any time he chose. He also deliberately let the world believe he still had an active chemical warfare program. Then of course there was all that truck traffic going to Syria in the run up to the invasion.

 

 

Splinty,

That's not being right, that's a statement of the obvious, Any country that had a weapons programme still has the scientists unless it shoots them..

As to Labs and technicians well you can make Anthrax or Sarin in a high schools so short of going back to the stone age that's not a reason to attack it's an excuse.

On that basis Iran would have just cause to first strike Israel. 

As to making people believe he still had chemical weapons...eh yeah, like the ones he successful used against Iran when the war with got ugly.

It's called "A Deterrent!"

Even if he did move some stuff to Syria it never amounted to a threat to his neighbours let alone the West. 

For me Iraq is done and dusted and though I am interested in the combat side, the politics is the past and it should be left there as long as we remember that you start with the evidence and then make the decisions not the other way round.

Peter.

[Sgt Joch]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was technically legal

No, the 2003 invasion of Iraq was an illegal war.

The Bush administration tried to come up with legal rationales, i.e enforcement of existing U.N. resolutions or some made up doctrine of the "preemptive self defense", but those have been debunked by legal experts.

but we are getting way off topic.....

[Ivanov]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think he meant "top attack", in the form of bomblets rather than conventional HE artillery or rocket fire.  Russian artillery was fairly active in Ukraine during July, including within Ukraine as Ivanov points out.

That's correct. I'm sorry for not being precise, I thought that the information Steve posted was already well known by the forum members.

 

@John Kettler be careful with South Front, they are as independent and unbiased as Russia Today, if you know what I mean. If you're looking for a real OSINT source, then Bellingcat is the best hands down.

[John Kettler]

Ivanov,

Who is it you're implying/saying South Front really supports? I can't tell whether you're arguing here by analogy or whether you're saying it's simply another form of Russian propaganda. I very much like the work of InformNapalm. It's done some pretty phenomenal stuff. I was delving into it well before I encountered bellingcat. What started this OSINT stuff for me, though, was the splendid and oh so revelatory IMINT & Analysis blog. It's author is a Jane's contributor and a SME in air defense and strategic warfare. His site is a must see. Unfortunately, it covers only through June 2013. That said, I found a truly outstanding resource called The Open Source Intelligence OSINT 2oolKit On The Go and is 168 pages long.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited August 13, 2016 by John Kettler

[Ivanov]

@John Kettler 

South Front is a Russian propaganda. Let's just take a look at the video that supposedly "explains" the recent tensions in Crimea. It's called "Who Instigates Russian-Ukrainian War Over Crimea" and the video thumbnail features a photo of Hillary Clinton, however there's no mention of her during the almost 3 minute video. The video simply repeats the claims of Russian official propaganda about the Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea, which is a lie. No sorry, I've actually found the picture of the Ukrainian special forces group captured near Simferopol. Here it is:

hosting imagenes

There's also a South Front video about NATO called "War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery NATO Information Operations". That kind of stuff sounds like it was written by the same people who work for Russia Today or Sputnik. Don't be deceived by their English accents.
 

Edited August 13, 2016 by Ivanov

[Splinty]

5 hours ago, Peter Cairns said:

Splinty,

That's not being right, that's a statement of the obvious, Any country that had a weapons programme still has the scientists unless it shoots them..

As to Labs and technicians well you can make Anthrax or Sarin in a high schools so short of going back to the stone age that's not a reason to attack it's an excuse.

On that basis Iran would have just cause to first strike Israel. 

As to making people believe he still had chemical weapons...eh yeah, like the ones he successful used against Iran when the war with got ugly.

It's called "A Deterrent!"

Even if he did move some stuff to Syria it never amounted to a threat to his neighbours let alone the West. 

For me Iraq is done and dusted and though I am interested in the combat side, the politics is the past and it should be left there as long as we remember that you start with the evidence and then make the decisions not the other way round.

Peter.

Peter, I didn't say Bush was right, I said he wasn't as wrong as he was portrayed to be and that his administration did not lie. As for Saddam having labs etc. as a deterrent, that would fly if it weren't that he was banned from having  or developing WMDs in ANY form after the '91 Gulf War by the UN. Those very violations were part of the case presented to the UN.

Edited August 13, 2016 by Splinty

[John Kettler]

Ivanov,

Very much appreciate the clarification. I had some concerns over the supposed diversionary weapons displayed, since doing stuff like that is a classic tactic to blacken the other side, and I'm well aware the Russians bombed their own people to sell a Chechen(?) terrorist scenario. Have to say I find your photo ID absolutely brilliant! Now that I know what South Front is about, I can use it to suss out what the particular meme is being conveyed. That in and of itself can be most revealing. Simply saying anything about a topic itself indicates some level of interest and/or concern. It also speaks to self-perception. If the Russians are conducting a maskirovka by creating a false Ukrainian diversionary narrative, is Putin simply playing aggrieved and reacting strongly in order to shore up domestic support and ram through yet more restrictions on the Russian people; is he trying to portray Russian strength and determination when tested, lest the US and NATO challenge him in some way; is he showing the Russians have real insecurities regarding their vulnerability in the Crimea to such diversionary efforts? What I'm saying is that despite my knowing Southern Front is a somewhat covert Kremlin mouthpiece, there is still value in seeing what's there. To me, what's talked about and what isn't tell their own important tales.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

Please... let's stop having the debate about the Bush Admin and the 2003 war in Iraq before I lock this thread.  Almost nobody thinks it was a good idea and just about everybody thinks that (at a minimum) the Bush Admin stretched the truth to justify an invasion that the key players in the Admin had advocated for more than 10 years.  Legality is legitimately questioned both for and against because the international system of laws and the practice of those laws is horribly designed and practically never enforced because we don't have an enforcement mechanism worth a damned.

Since we can at least agree on that, drop it.  It has absolutely no relation to what Russia did in Crimea, despite what Russian propaganda tries to portray.

Steve

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

The whole Ukrainian special forces thing has a sort of dark humor to it.   It's the absolute thinnest, least believable fig leaf for whatever happens next.  It's clearly not intended to be realistically believed by anyone outside of Russia simply because it is so patently absurd.  

Actually now that I think about it, the Ukraine could send literal battalions of special forces troops into Russia, and leave little cards announcing that they are real Ukrainian special forces, with photo copies of their military IDs, and leave behind a specially trained operator at each attack site who's job it was to remain behind and announce that it really was Ukrainians that did this attack, and even then Russia has so little credibility that no one would believe it was happening.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Ivanov said:

@John Kettler 

South Front is a Russian propaganda.
 

Beat me to it

There's three forms of Russian propaganda out there.  First is the overt state controlled media.  Second are the overtly single minded pro-Russian websites which are not necessarily directly attributed to Russian state media.  Third are the sites that try very hard to appear "international" or at least not pro-Russian when, in fact, they are.  It's pretty easy to spot which is which if you look.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

The whole Ukrainian special forces thing has a sort of dark humor to it.   It's the absolute thinnest, least believable fig leaf for whatever happens next.  It's clearly not intended to be realistically believed by anyone outside of Russia simply because it is so patently absurd.  

Beyond absurd, especially when you take into consideration that FSB also said that Ukraine conducted a large artillery strike to allow the subversive groups to enter Crimea.  Yet for some reason Russian artillery didn't respond?  Yeah, right.  If Ukraine really did fire artillery at Russian military positions in Crimea there would be mobilization notices in the mail to hundreds of thousands of Russians the same day.

So if the FSB is lying about that...

Also, does anybody here think that if Ukraine, or even volunteer extremists, wanted to blow up stuff in Crimea that they would try to go overland?  Wouldn't they more likely take a boat and land anywhere of their choosing in the middle of the night close to their targets and then escape by sea instead of fighting their way into Crimea by land?

The Russian government obviously thinks the average Russian citizen is an absolute idiot.  Because only an absolute idiot would believe such poorly constructed BS stories.

3 minutes ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

Actually now that I think about it, the Ukraine could send literal battalions of special forces troops into Russia, and leave little cards announcing that they are real Ukrainian special forces, with photo copies of their military IDs, and leave behind a specially trained operator at each attack site who's job it was to remain behind and announce that it really was Ukrainians that did this attack, and even then Russia has so little credibility that no one would believe it was happening.  

Sad, but true.  The Russian media doesn't always lie, but they lie so consistently and boldly that the term "trust and verify" doesn't apply.  Instead it is "verify and still don't trust".

Steve

[Splinty]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Please... let's stop having the debate about the Bush Admin and the 2003 war in Iraq before I lock this thread.  Almost nobody thinks it was a good idea and just about everybody thinks that (at a minimum) the Bush Admin stretched the truth to justify an invasion that the key players in the Admin had advocated for more than 10 years.  Legality is legitimately questioned both for and against because the international system of laws and the practice of those laws is horribly designed and practically never enforced because we don't have an enforcement mechanism worth a damned.

Since we can at least agree on that, drop it.  It has absolutely no relation to what Russia did in Crimea, despite what Russian propaganda tries to portray.

Steve

Sorry Steve, it wasn't my intention to derail this thread or start a fight. I will not speak of Iraq again.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Sorry Steve, it wasn't my intention to derail this thread or start a fight. I will not speak of Iraq again.

No problems.  It's one of those topics which many of us find too interesting to NOT talk about and, therefore, it's hard to stay away from it.  I know it's tough for me and others in this thread too.  Which is to be expected from one of the most controversial topics of this century so far.

Have some Cheez-Its and enjoy the day  

Steve

[Splinty]

Will do! Mmmmmmm Cheeze-Its......

[HerrTom]

Steve, you earlier talked about possible Russian solutions to their lot in the Donbass,  What do you think about the economic route?  Russia is surely capable of outspending Ukraine on the ATO, especially with the chaos on the Ukrainian economy by one of their major industrial centers suddenly being in a warzone.  Furthermore, maintaining the ATO surely is expensive.  Is it possible in your mind that Russia can maintain their position to the point where Ukraine simply cannot afford to keep going?

[Peter Cairns]

Given that I think there is a consensus that what Russia is saying about Ukrainian saboteurs is bunkum, it does raise another question.

Just what kind of intelligence gathering/Special forces do people think the Ukraine has inside Crimea;

a) None, the risks of capture/provoking a Russian response outweigh what they might learn.

Sympathisers who are mainly untrained civilian who pass on/ smuggle out what they can in terms of information.

c) Actual members of their intelligence services including inside the Crimean administration and paramilitaries ( Crimean Russians who see Putin as we do)

d) Dormant special forces who could act if and when needed to give real time intel or disrupt operations.

e) active units either intelligence or special operations who are actively involved in sabotage.

Peter.

 

[VladimirTarasov]

1 hour ago, Peter Cairns said:

Given that I think there is a consensus that what Russia is saying about Ukrainian saboteurs is bunkum, it does raise another question.

Just what kind of intelligence gathering/Special forces do people think the Ukraine has inside Crimea;

a) None, the risks of capture/provoking a Russian response outweigh what they might learn.

Sympathisers who are mainly untrained civilian who pass on/ smuggle out what they can in terms of information.

c) Actual members of their intelligence services including inside the Crimean administration and paramilitaries ( Crimean Russians who see Putin as we do)

d) Dormant special forces who could act if and when needed to give real time intel or disrupt operations.

e) active units either intelligence or special operations who are actively involved in sabotage.

Interviews with the captured men point that it (the plan) was arranged in Ukraine. They have witnesses, they captured some guys, they have footage showing the equipment they captured, and also evidence that some guys fled into the Ukrainian border. 2 servicemen were killed. There's a bunch of theories floating around, I'm going to assume this was not something Poroshenko said "Go ahead do it" unless he's dumb enough and wants war. So far from the evidence, It's probably done by someone who is in the SBU or has good connections in Ukraine, he organized some trained men and sent them through to do some damage. Anyways, I'm not the guy who's investigating this, so I'll just leave it to that guy.

 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Interviews with the captured men point that it (the plan) was arranged in Ukraine. They have witnesses, they captured some guys, they have footage showing the equipment they captured, and also evidence that some guys fled into the Ukrainian border. 2 servicemen were killed. There's a bunch of theories floating around, I'm going to assume this was not something Poroshenko said "Go ahead do it" unless he's dumb enough and wants war. So far from the evidence, It's probably done by someone who is in the SBU or has good connections in Ukraine, he organized some trained men and sent them through to do some damage. Anyways, I'm not the guy who's investigating this, so I'll just leave it to that guy.

 

I'm going to go with no.  I'm sure "evidence" will appear to totally validate whatever Russia does next, but:

1. The Ukraine has very successfully let Russia paint itself as the aggressor.  A cross border anything would undo that rather handily which makes very little to no sense.

2. There's no good strategic mission for a direct action mission outside of the active fighting areas, or much deeper in Russia.

In either event looking into the rumblings outside of Russia, literally no one believes the Russian line.  The most common theory is that Putin has some security crackdown or increased aggression against the Ukraine, and he's looking for something to justify it further domestically.  

[Ivanov]

The only captured guy they showed on Russian TV, is a Ukrainian driver who looks like he was beaten up, so I guess he would confess to anything. His cousin said, that on the video he wears a t-shirt that he normally wears when he goes to his work in a car workshop. So it looks like he was snatched by the FSB.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, HerrTom said:

Steve, you earlier talked about possible Russian solutions to their lot in the Donbass,  What do you think about the economic route?  Russia is surely capable of outspending Ukraine on the ATO, especially with the chaos on the Ukrainian economy by one of their major industrial centers suddenly being in a warzone.  Furthermore, maintaining the ATO surely is expensive.  Is it possible in your mind that Russia can maintain their position to the point where Ukraine simply cannot afford to keep going?

Sure, and that appears to be Russia's hope since nothing else has worked.  At the very least the major diversion of resources and attention necessary to prevent Russia expanding it's foothold in Ukraine is resources and attention not invested elsewhere.  Ironically, the war has put far more pressure on the new Kiev government to reform itself than anything else.  At the same time it has switched Ukrainians from thinking "let's go with the EU and stay with Russia because they are our brothers" to something I can't print in this Forum without having to ban myself   The longer this goes on the more Ukraine is under pressure to reform and the harder it will be for Russia to regain good relations with Ukraine in the future.  So I view this as a counter productive strategy, but it's the only one Russia seems to have at the moment.

On the flip side, the war is also costing Russia a lot in terms of its economy and its standing in the world.  Every day is another day which things could get worse for Russia in regards to both of these things.  The domestic situation is already causing Putin problems, which can be seen by a recent wave of political shuffles and legal actions against previous allies.  The polls in support of Putin are going down and, for the first time in something like 10+ years, the unfavorable rating of the United States is decreasing.

On top of that... Russia's net outflow of educated, young Russians has dramatically increased in the last 2 years.  This is a perpetual problem for Russia that is already have major consequences internally.

In short, piles of money are only one element that has to be considered when looking at return on investment.

4 hours ago, Peter Cairns said:

Given that I think there is a consensus that what Russia is saying about Ukrainian saboteurs is bunkum, it does raise another question.

Just what kind of intelligence gathering/Special forces do people think the Ukraine has inside Crimea;

a) None, the risks of capture/provoking a Russian response outweigh what they might learn.

Sympathisers who are mainly untrained civilian who pass on/ smuggle out what they can in terms of information.

c) Actual members of their intelligence services including inside the Crimean administration and paramilitaries ( Crimean Russians who see Putin as we do)

d) Dormant special forces who could act if and when needed to give real time intel or disrupt operations.

e) active units either intelligence or special operations who are actively involved in sabotage.

Peter.

 

My guess is mostly A) with a smattering of D).  I do not think there is much in C) and I don't think there's anything in E).

2 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Interviews with the captured men point that it (the plan) was arranged in Ukraine. They have witnesses, they captured some guys, they have footage showing the equipment they captured, and also evidence that some guys fled into the Ukrainian border. 2 servicemen were killed. There's a bunch of theories floating around, I'm going to assume this was not something Poroshenko said "Go ahead do it" unless he's dumb enough and wants war. So far from the evidence, It's probably done by someone who is in the SBU or has good connections in Ukraine, he organized some trained men and sent them through to do some damage. Anyways, I'm not the guy who's investigating this, so I'll just leave it to that guy.

And where does all this "evidence" come from?  The same agency that said Ukraine's artillery blasted Russian forces?  The same agency that has kidnapped foreign nationals on their soil, brought them back to Russia, and then tried them on laughably fictitious charges?  Yeah, sorry... not buying it.  Not even with a devalued Ruble.  FSB is about as reliable a source of truth as my dirty socks are.

48 minutes ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

I'm going to go with no.  I'm sure "evidence" will appear to totally validate whatever Russia does next, but:

1. The Ukraine has very successfully let Russia paint itself as the aggressor.  A cross border anything would undo that rather handily which makes very little to no sense.

2. There's no good strategic mission for a direct action mission outside of the active fighting areas, or much deeper in Russia.

True, but not applicable if the "saboteurs" were not acting on orders from Kiev.  That's the theory Vladimir is proposing.  The thing is Russia has already got "confessions" that they were acting on orders from Kiev.  Which makes sense because Russia could not direct it's ire against Kiev if it was a bunch of criminals.  So it invented the story it needed, not one that is plausible.

Quote

In either event looking into the rumblings outside of Russia, literally no one believes the Russian line.  The most common theory is that Putin has some security crackdown or increased aggression against the Ukraine, and he's looking for something to justify it further domestically.  

Here's a cut/paste of something I wrote yesterday in regards to the recent military moves to and within Crimea and it's possible connection to what happened on the border.  It was part of a conversation between a friend in Ukraine (who is in the area of Crimea) and myself.  This is a candid look at how I write outside of this Forum, so be gentle

...there’s bunch of Russia experts coming to similar conclusions that this is all about Minsk and the EU sanctions.  Putin is doing his usual posturing prior to negotiating and, at the same time, trying to give his paid flunkies in places like Italy some more ammo for he next round of sanctions renewals.  Some reports I read said the last round barely resulted in continuation and the feeling was that the EU has “sanction fatigue” bad enough that January’s renewal would likely not happen.  The moronic Boris Johnson seems to be adding to the speculation that the EU’s position on Russia is softening (even though technically Britain is out of the EU ASAP).

As for the military moves, it seems to me that these are different.  The reports about stuff moving around Crimea is, as you say, a daily yawn fest from the Ukrainian blogs.  But several days before the incident there were enough reports that my ears perked up.  A sign that something had changed because I’d largely drown them out.  In particular there were a lot more reports of movement over Kerch rather than internal movement around the peninsula.  There were also reports about larger movements of heavy stuff towards the Ukrainian border than normal.  Again, these things managed to cut through my attention filters just a couple days before the incident, so it’s probable that there was something unusual going on right before.

The big question is whether this shoot out was planned or simply taken advantage of by Putin.  My guess is the 3 day lag indicates, more than anything else, that it was unplanned.  If it was unplanned, and the movements days before were indeed unusual, then it is probable that the two were somehow connected.

Oh, and I also think that his team figured that they could blame the terrible summer holiday activity in Crimea on Ukraine.  While he might not care about the people providing those services, the Crimeans do.  And if the Crimeans are unhappy about the lack of business despite Putin’s claims of turning it into the new Monte Carlo, this seems like a great way to duck responsibility at a time when his poll numbers are slipping.

I’m not worried about Russia invading Ukraine.  I think all this stuff Putin is doing now is for political effect, both internationally and at home.  Still, Putin is a gambler so it’s only right to keep in mind that he could decide to roll the dice.  If he did I think that would indicate that things are a lot worse for him domestically than even we suspect.

Steve