G.I. Joe

I guess we'll see soon, hopefully EU won't budge, that would be the worst we could do. Hell, if it comes fo that, Poland should veto the compromise, Russian threats really do not impress us anymore. 

Well we have to find one first....

and on the subject of american victims of Putin's criminality, there's hostage taking.  Specifically Britney Greiner, WNBA star.  Also there's another guy currently held hostage, name Whelan (sp?).  The reporter here talks about what Russia is up to on this.  Also they discuss the amount of coverage relative to her level of famousness (meaning Greiner is not Serena Williams level famous).
I get that this seems trivial relative to the numbers of Ukranians killed, maimed, displaced, kidnapped by Putin.  
 

UKR is outgunned, locally in Donbas by RU artillery and air.  So they are going after the ammo for the guns and now the airbases.  I like it.  I like it a lot.  Hard to find all those dang guns.  but easy, it seems, to find the ammo storage.
And a lot of talk about Russia and its future on the thread today.  But what's missing is that Russia is in control of what happens.  Remove Putin, make peace, make it stick, reform gov't and in 5-10 years things will start getting better.
Keep on the path Russia is on and it will be severe, ongoing economic decline and probably dangerous political instability.  
No one is invading Russia, especially not going to moscow removing the Russian gov't.  That's absurd beyond belief.  And Russia attacking NATO in a way that hurts NATO 1% as much as it hurts Putin is only slightly less absurd.

It looks like Finland, Sweden and Turkiye reached an agreement. Press conference to follow in a moment:
 

Yes, I needed a bit of a "vacation", so to speak and got out of the constant drumbeat of Twitter, Telegram, Discord and forum threads about the war for a month or so. I highly recommend it to clear one's head. 😃

Endorse all of this. This war...for the West at least...is about stability. And the strategic thinking as far as I can tell isn't focused on any end state yet other than "how can Ukraine win without anyone triggering WWIII". 

So I encourage everyone to simmer down a bit - it is not like we are going to solve it here.  We all have opinions that are influenced by current events, and the heat is understandable.  I would offer that we perhaps take a step back and maybe take a bit more pragmatic view of this whole thing.
As far as I can see many seem to be weighing in on the strategic end state for Russia; however, this cannot be viewed in glorious isolation:
Western Strategic Endstate - this is a gross oversimplification because "The West" is comprised of many nations, all with their own interests; however, we can probably sum up the western desired end-state as a "manageable version of the former status quo".  In simpler terms, the west just wants the stability and order they have enjoyed for 30+ years so we can all stay rich - while at the same time allowing that wealth to slowly distribute globally.  Kind of a weird global trickle down theory of wealth but if you crunch the numbers it actually happened, although not nearly as fast or as equitable as a lot of people wanted.  The West wants to remain top dog globally and ensure that it holds the pen that writes the global order.
Ukrainian Endstate - beyond basic survival, Ukraine will be focused on security and integrity of its state.  It needs to be secure and free from what is happening right now in all its forms, and allowed to chart its own destiny as a collective entity within the international community.  I think that Ukraine in the EU and NATO is almost a certainty as elements of that end-state. In fact being within NATO is about the only guarantor of security for any nation neighboring Russia right now.  NATO is too big to fail and even Russia recognizes that triggering an Article 5 above recognized conflict thresholds is suicide. 
Russian Endstate - Only China and its growing global power is a viable challenger to the western bloc - and Russia already knows this, Putin's pipedream of somehow re-creating a third global power pole around Russia was weak-tea for domestic consumption.  So wither goes Russia?  
Well first off, I get the heat and anger...and it is well deserved; however, the idea that the endstate is the elimination of the Russian people, as a people, is a dead end.  We would break that Western Endstate if we endorsed a war of extermination in any form - so be angry, but western support will dry up the instant we get into the "destruction of Russia" territory.  Beyond the disruption to the global order this is just a bad idea for so many reasons, all centered on the fact that Russia currently holds roughly 6000 nuclear warheads. 
Now I know some will say - "Ya but they are all under tight control in concentrated areas" - well good for them; however, if Russia fractures into several smaller states or duchies or freaking warlord centric tribes we basically have the worst parts of Africa with the power to kill millions rolling around the floor.  Make all the arguments you like, we dodged a bullet in '91 and this would be a lot worse than that because we are not talking about dissolution into already semi-functioning former vassal states, we are talking new states and non-state entities.   For example, what happens when a break away semi-state decides that a 500 year old grudge is worth firing off nuclear weapons?  What happens when a non-state group decides that Ukraine is to blame?  Or the EU?  Or the US?  Way too many factors to control and recall my rant on relative rationality, it gets more relative the smaller the social structure you are looking at.
So no, I am sorry, but the break up of Russia or total dissolution is not on the grown ups table, and likely will not be unless we are talking WW3.  Too many of our interests are threatened by this eventuality, to the point that if it did happen we would likely be talking about the largest intervention operation in history to secure those nukes, and we are highly likely to miss some. 
The contraction of Russia, however, is definitely on the table.  As I wrote previously, Russia must be punished, be seen to be punished, and know it has been punished.  In the West, I frankly suspect that we do not care what government rules Russia - so long as it is rationale, reasonable and we can rely on it for normal business.  We do business and support dictators around the world right now (e.g. Saudi Arabia) and frankly could care less if another one rules Russia with an iron fist...so long as they stay in their lane and know their place.  So regime change is also very likely on the table, the US has already signaled this.  As is, the serious reduction in the Russian economy its ability to sustain military power is definitely on the table.  This is to ensure that it cannot threaten its neighbors for some time; time to build security guarantees with any and all neighboring nations that want them...why?  Because stability.
So what is the strategic endstate for Russia?  Contracted, Compressed, Constrained, and most importantly Contained...but not Shattered.  We need a semi-functioning state in the penalty-box, cooperating in war crimes trials and paying reparations, selling off its nuclear stockpile "in kind for destruction"...all the while still selling cheap energy to us and not China.  Russia's deep cultural dysfunction needs to be in a box where it can be happy at how miserable it is and leave the rest of us alone...not thrown up all over the geopolitical dance floor with a nuclear weapon in hand and mascara running down its tear soaked face while it blames us for "wanting to sleep with every other nation in the bar!!"

I think it would definitely have been a factor. In particular, the "how not to" aspects of the lessons of Vietnam were keenly felt among the U.S. officer and NCO corps. I recall General Schwarzkopf's autobiography It Doesn't Take a Hero had a lot of good first person insight into what that era was like for U.S. Army officers (also a good firsthand account of Operation Urgent Fury), but it has been ages since I read it. Over on the Air Force side of things, I highly recommend C. R. Anderegg's book Sierra Hotel: Flying Air Force Fighters in the Decade After Vietnam. Being in federal copyright, Sierra Hotel is legally available for free online if you don't mind an ebook in PDF format.

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

Somehow, that gives me the mental image of 4:00 AM Winston Churchill drunk-tweets...

UKR Air Forces command claimed for today 12 sorties, including by groups. Su-24M and Su-25 struck positions of two Russian BTGs and hit ammunition depot. 
Locals on RUMINT level write Russian fighter engaged UKR Su-24M over Apostolove area (Kryvyi Rih - Nikopol direction) and launched AA missile at it, but the crew of our bomber conducted evasive maneuvers and saved own jet.
 

Yes, didn’t sleep through history classes.
But your are right. Russia ‘22 isn’t Germany ‘45. Each country has its own history. But I took it as an example that a) a country can be ‘fixed’ and, b) you might need external help for that.
If Twitter had existed in ‘45 the posts by German nationalists wouldn’t have looked much different from Russias today (Hitler did everything wrong, we just need to do x, bla bla…).
So I don’t agree that the existence of those kind of postings make Russia unfixable per se. With what I agree is the necessity of Russia loosing this war very clearly and the following dissolution of the federation. If Russia stays in its current form nothing will happen for a very long time.

I was thinking same thing.  I want to politicians & media to start framing this war better.  I want to start hearing things like "serial mass murderer & dictator of Russia, Vladimir Putin" become the norm.  He as murdered dozens of thousands now, crippled and maimed many times that, and wrecked the lives of literally millions.  He's totally disrupted the already damaged world economy.  He's worked to undermine democracy in the US and Europe.  
He's a murderous menace to the world but it needs to be framed so that it can start sinking in w folks that aren't paying much attention.

F**k Putin all the way to hell the effing coward.
I can take a vacation for saying this but I had to get it off my chest.

TLDR: 
 

That is 241 meters per day.  I also am hesitant to give Russia too much credit for adaptation in this last offensive.  Back in May they looked like they were trying for manoeuvre/break out at Izyum and those attacks stalled.
I suspect these grinding artillery heavy assaults are not some clever re-tooling, they are the only tactical offensive option the RA has left.  The reliance on massed artillery is straight out of historical doctrine but we have not seen concentrations like this since WW2.
The other weird thing is the near total absence of armor/mech breakout.  The last big mech push we saw was back at that bridge crossing.  Reports from Severodonetsk looked like infantry-artillery primarily, which may explain the walking pace of this thing.
I think that Russian warfare has devolved over time, not evolved.  I am very interested as to why.

@Elvis. I  think this guy needs some attention.

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis