Anonymous_Jonze

My two cents:
Putin does NOT want fight w NATO, that's suicide for his war and probably his regime (meaning his life)
Poland gov't first priority is public relations IMO
Poland gov't probably has lots of contingency plans, but maybe this one falls in between the plans, like stray missile plan maybe didn't have loss of life, and loss of life plan assumed targeted missile.  
I think what Poland now needs to do is think about 'outcome-based' response.  What is there that Poland would like to do but could really only justify to partners with some kind of pretext?  Poland sends some long range missiles to UKR?  I just don't see Poland doing anything that would actually kill russians at this point, whether that is knocking out a bridge or hitting an ammo depot or any other attack.

I think this forum has a good handle on technical, tactical, and strategical discussion of events in the battlespace. But these discussions of NATO, Article 5, no fly zones, world politics, nuclear weapons, and so are usually weak and come to people just making gut feelings or wishes of events.

I think it would be good to step back from edge and think with a more sedate mindset about what might happen now. Or better to keep larger focus on this groups strengths

OK, let's put this in prespective. Putin WANTS NATO to respond. He lacks even passive support of the majority of Russian Federation populations, BUT, historically, any attack or threat to the "Rodina" causes ALL the populations to rise to the defense of the "Mother Russia!" Perhaps that's exactly what he wants. Then, he'll be able to say that Russia (and by extension he) were beaten by the evil west NATO, and not the subhuman inferior Ukraines.
 

Zelensky amazes me.  Here's a guy that only 4 years ago was an actor, comedian and businessman with a law degree and no foreign policy, governmental or military experience.  But yet, he's leading one of the most complex, challenging globally high profile and difficult situations of this century.  And he seems to be making all the right moves time and again.  The way he handles himself, his words and quiet but confident demeanor continue to be on point.  Yes, I'm sure he's getting expertise, coaching and direction from multiple sources---but he's choosing to listen and take advise from seemingly all the right people which is an art unto itself. 
And to think what his life is like on a daily basis, to have to be "on" month after month.  The guy flat out has my respect and I hope to someday read his memoirs on from late 2021 until this ends.  
 
 

the attack on Kinburn was significant in that it demonstrated that the French and British fleets had developed effective amphibious capabilities and had technological advantages that gave them a decisive edge over their Russian opponents.The destruction of Kinburn's coastal fortifications completed the Anglo-French naval campaign in the Black Sea; the Russians no longer had any meaningful forces left to oppose them at sea.
 
Oh, wait, that was 1855.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kinburn_(1855)

This dug in Panzer IV is well placed to deal with enemy armour, but how effective is it against their heavies?...........

This effective....

I'm now placing all the new stuff, the mod is really coming together...Cheers guys for all your help, support and expert blender models. Cheers

Dragon teeth, dead soldiers, Red Cross trucks and SPW, larger trees, factory chimneys, dugged in tanks etc.etc.
You guys are unbelievable!
Personally I think that the absence of dragon teeth in CM is inexcusable.
 

So UKR BMP charges trench defense network w one squad.  RU has excellent positions + outnumbers UKR team.  And the RU forces ran away?  This should have been a suicide charge for the UKR team?  Unbelievable reckless courage that succeeded due to utter RU incompetence/lack of morale as far as I can tell.  None of us would ever do this in CMBS or CMCW.  Not this close. 

A little melee. Ukrainian BMP storms Russian trenches

It was always like that since its inception in 1943. Stalin ordered the creation of it to help brainwash soldiers into dying with little remorse and so it began. It was always (and to this day) ran by the highest ranking KGB officers, so all sermons were properly crafted by the agency and so it never put any value into human life with maximum militarism and dehumanization of both the enemy and the listener in its "religious" texts.

The two main soldiers are definitely not from Quebec or from a French-speaking country. Their "R"'s are rolled. They say "petit" instead of "petite", which a French speaker wouldn't do. Quebec spoken is more nasal. They seem rather to legionnaires from Eastern countries (Poland, Romania etc). They also say "Kurwa" but it is a generic term throughout the Legion so not really proof. It's more like the way of speaking of the Polish Legionnaires that I could know. Just my two cents

Just to raise morale. Today first journalists reach Kherson. Russian comments at Telegram they are of course actors; there is significant coursing on ineffectivness of Russian military. Turbo-patriots seem to be especially angry, morons really believed Kherson was now Russia and populace was largely supportive. They feel extra betrayed.
Also:
 

The man, who performed a plan of General Staff of right bank liberation - major-general Andriy Kovalchuk, 48 y.o., commander of Operative Command "South" and Operative-Strategic Troops Grouping "Oleksandriya" (Southern theater). Today he visited Kherson. 
He participated in peacmaking operation in Kosovo and Liberia. In 2014-2016 was a commander of 80th airmobile brigade, was wounded during the battle for Luhansk airport, but didn't leave own sodiers. In 2018 he received honorary British award for best graduates of National Defense Univercity - the Sword of Queen Elizabeth II 
 
 

These videos of citizens of Kherson rejoicing are already more corrosive to Russian national morale than military withdrawal in itself. Muscovite nats are coping hard, but one can feel that narration of "liberation of Russian citizens" lost its magic, at least regarding areas beyond Donbas and Crimea.
 
Gen. Hodges on optimistic scenario. Not sure how realistic, but he was very hawkish from the start.
 

I think history will reflect favourably on Biden.  He has effectively lead the western response and the sharing of intelligence on Russian intentions prior to the Feb invasion blunted any surprise.  The courage and determination of the Ukrainian people have been an inspiration.  They have earned their place in the drivers seat of their self determination.
Zelensky, at least to this external observer, has been a great leader. He has been relentless in his pleas for support to the world.  He is held in high regard amongst the public.
 

https://www.thebulwark.com/the-liberation-of-kherson/
A big outcome of the US elections is that the candidates pushing hardest to reduce aid to Ukraine last pretty badly. For you non-US folks, the out party tends to crush in the mid terms. This time, it didn't. Really good news.

T-62 in Kherson area

Maybe Russians are trying their version of Severodonetsk, if you recall, Russia attempted a push into the city head on and got bloodied for it.
End of the day, letting Russia leave Kherson quietly is the best thing, no Mariupol, no turning another one of Ukraine's cities into rubble.
Destroy the equipment. The men are useful to kill or maim but forcing them to fight in urban defense is not great vs retreating.

Lest we forget


"A woman in front of the wall of memory of defenders of Ukraine who fell during the Russian-Ukrainian war, in downtown kyiv, Monday, November 7, 2022. BERNAT ARMANGUE / AP"

In the words of Russian propaganda 🤡
Mostly platoon-sized units working independently of each other. Previous combat experience of many volunteers probably position them as elite light infantry or SF engaged in recon/assaults/QRF; at least 3 known volunteers from Poland serve in such role. But others may man the trenches, it seems a lot of it is dependant on necessicties.
Belarussians from Kostas Kalinousky reg. seem to be fighting as relatively coherent formation, various Georgian detachments as well (Didgori "brigade" or rather platoon seem to have heavy casualties two weeks ago, there were several orbituaries of them).

Seconded!

Makes you wonder about the consumer benefits of preordering something.

Looking forward to the Ogledow campaign, especially because I made a map for this exact area for the Forgotten Hope 2 Mod for BF2. Due to the gameplay limitations of that engine, it is scaled down a bit, but the general look is similar:
http://forgottenhope.warumdarum.de/fh2_maps.php?map=51
 

Some close up vision of two very old warhorses
And some nice vision of a NONA
Last one, I imagine this makes it feel worth it to these guys.