Probus

Lancet hit a model of 2S1
 

Yeah it is still early but I think I am distinctly hearing creaking noises from that shoddily built Russian house. 
freakin months of Russian gains measured in inches per body and in a week we are starting a list of liberated settlements.  My bet is Russian high command is studiously avoiding being near windows. 

aand we got replacements:
 

This former general's view:
 

I'm imagining a drone that drops a litre of vodka, followed by a grenade when Russian troops scramble out to get it.

On a lighter note: Germany currently plays its 1000th international football match vs Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine leads 1:2, but it's still one hour to go
(flag reads: 'Thanks, now I have Leopard')
 

Large summary from about an hour ago:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-advances-made-in-grueling-fight

These sorts of reactions are delusional - Just stop it guys - The only thing that matters is the  operational level goals at this point . We should not be freaking out about tactical losses - these are guaranteed to happen .  I mean seriously - please restraint the doom and gloom posts and  just thanks your lucky stars you are not at the leading edge of these attacks . The Ukrainians are  the ones shedding their blood to retake their own territory back from the orcs  . Give them some room please ! .

About as much good news as we could hope for, the land bridge is only  ~100k wide.

Russia lacks men to defend the full front. The Kherson front is closest to Perekop. Keeping strong raiding parties from crossing the Dnieper saves Russian manpower and provides defenses in terms of flooded land that are better than anything the RuAF can do themselves. The reservoir will be harder to cross at a lower level (no established landings, muddy banks for 100s of yards, etc). 

The quick version is that it's (probably) an exercise in economy of force. The flooding is a serious obstacle, meaning Russia can take troops out of the line opposite Kherson and use them to react to the Ukrainian offensive.

Ingenious, and can double as spaced armour/ anti-loitering munitions net:
 

Mayor explained the unusual vibrations in Kyiv this night: Weapons are going to the front (yahoo.com)
Mayor of Kyiv, Vitalii Klitschko, explained the unusual vibrations felt by the residents of the capital on Sunday night as the movement of powerful weapons to the front.
Source: Klitschko on air during the national joint 24/7 newscast
Details: The mayor was asked if he knew what caused the vibrations that residents of the city of Kyiv and its oblast confused with an earthquake.
Quote from Klitschko: "That is weapons going to the front, new and powerful ones. The vibration may be caused by that."
Background:
On the night of 28 May, an air-raid warning, local residents felt unusual vibrations reminiscent of an earthquake in the city of Kyiv and its oblast.
However, as reported by UP.Zhyttia, no earthquakes were recorded by the Main Center of Special Control in Kyiv Oblast that night. The international services that monitor the activity of seismic phenomena on Earth also did not report earthquakes in Ukraine in recent hours.
 
 

There is no way this can be more interesting than what is going on in Belgorod.

JonS, this is so ridiculously and demonstrably wrong.  I can go on the internet right now and find hundreds of examples where a difficult and complex problem is easily solved by "this one simple trick".  QED!  Debate won!  Woo woo!  that'll show all you people who are educated on subjects and actually know things!   HA HA HA I WIN!  (legal disclaimer: this is sarcasm)
But seriously, excellent discussions here.  I was out after yesterday morning & had ~5 pages to get thru, y'all were quite prolific and good (one notable exception).
Meanwhile, Bakhmut falls.  Which may be the stupidest victory in history.  I am still of the belief that Wagner needed to win here because of contractual obligations -- meaning Putin gave Wagner financial incentives for Bakhmut many months ago, before knowing the cost, but kept it going because he needed the propaganda.  Well, congratulations to all.  Your reward is coming soon.
Seems the new longer range precision weapons are taking corrosion to a lovely new level.  Airfields & logistics & HQs that were out of range are now being hit regularly.  I was chomping at the bit for months for the ground to dry but now I am quite content to wait and let corrosion work its magic before the big show.  In the meantime, attack weakened, exhausted RU positions and cause consternation in RU troops & command.  Move some fancy NATO-supplied units to some rear of some section of the front, let it 'leak' out to the world.  Then remove it a week or two later to some other place.  Really F with 'em while the missiles take out the backbone.
 

One of my more favoured aphorisms is "for every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious, and wrong."
Words to remember, words to live by. It's a complex old world out there, and dumbing it down doesn't help anyone.

I wonder how affective they are against buttoned up armor. They should at least cause advancing armor to stay buttoned up.
  I also wonder how Combat Mission is going to include them in any future modern titles they release. Drone squad with "over the horizon" attacks? Or a mixture of a recon drone with an attack button?

I wonder how affective they are against buttoned up armor. They should at least cause advancing armor to stay buttoned up.
  I also wonder how Combat Mission is going to include them in any future modern titles they release. Drone squad with "over the horizon" attacks? Or a mixture of a recon drone with an attack button?

Ok let’s play “How Many Reasons Why Russia May Open Up Negotiations That Are Not An Immediate Sign Of Defeat” - all the College Boys chime in.  I will start:
- Shifting the strategic narrative/reframe the war in an attempt to demonstrate that they are the reasonable ones and start down a road to victimology that may appeal to certain political parties in the west who have their heads in warm dark places while they listen to “experts” with big mics, empty heads and a serious lust for more money and power.
- To create uncertainty in the European alliance and NATO as some nations just want this to be over and renormalize. 
- A ploy to pull China into this in some sort diplomatic tag team. China enters the side of “Putin the Reasonable” and leverages it towards a win for them both.
- The Russians simply stall for time in a hope to slow down the UA in a hope for a battlefield reverse.
- To play up to a domestic audience, with never any real intention of ceasing the conflict.
- Because Putin is finished and we wind up negotiating with a bunch of separate goons, none of whom actually represent the Russian people.
- Putin is not finished but wants us to believe it and over reach.  Link to playing for time and dumber political machines moving into power.
- Random irrational objectives that we can only guess at.
Now just for you - go look up Dunning-Kruger and think about it for awhile. And did you just walk into Steve’s house and tell him to shut up and sit down?  Seriously, how does that get right on any political spectrum?  And we are at Ignore.

And what is the quality of those new systems?  Given shortages in tech supply within Russia these systems will likely have issues with guidance systems and flight controls.  They will be then plugged into a 3rd rate ISR architecture that is being eroded as well.  Which is plugged into a Command and Control system that was a mess to start with.
This is what it looks like when organized crime tries to fight a conventional war.  
We have been watching the one-way erosion of the RA for over a year now.  The symptoms of systemic failure are written on the walls, underlined and bolded.  I am getting a growing sense that the upcoming collapse may be spectacular.
All war is communication, and Russia has been sending out signals of failure since this thing began.  All war is violent, but it has to be effective violence.  Simply doing disconnected or ineffective violence only reinforces an opponents resolve because they get angry, not despondent. You never create a curve they feel they are falling behind.  Russia has been a testament to ineffective violence in this war - it has not been focused or connected, a flailing windmill of murder and rage that looks scary for the first few seconds and then everyone realizes it is in fact a seizure.
Russia has already lost this war, they likely already know it.  We have already won it, but some refuse to see it.  All that remains is how do we end it?

Hi All, 
First post here, I'm a 44-year gamer who plays a bit of everything but my main interest is anything WW2. I've been playing Gary Grigbsy War in the East, Steel Division, Panzer Corp, Hell Let Loose, and pretty much anything related to WW2.
Took me until 2 weeks ago to actually hear about Combat Mission (probably did but never took note). I took the plunge and picked up Battle for Normandy and have already clocked up 120 hours and barely seemed to have scratched the surface. 
I am so amazed at how low profile this game is considering how addictive and rewarding it appears. I am already installing mods and now pay little interest in graphics, UI, and presentation. It really takes me back to a golden age when you actually bought a good game, book, or film and indulged yourself in it, and keep going back to it! 

Fu...k!!!! Sh...t!!! Damn!!! What a hell I just heard at 3:00 of night?! 22 loud explosions not far from of us! And about dozen distant boo-boom... Sh...t!!! Reportedly series of Kinzhals on Kyiv, also there were reports about Kalibrs launches. Well, I want to read good news at the morning

If my hypothesis that these are distraction attacks in preparation for the main offensive is correct, then this is exactly the result the Ukrainians were hoping for. The more troops Russia sends this way, the easier the real offensive will be.

It cuts a multitude of ways. Prigozhin certainly would have Kremlin approved reasons for having GUR contacts. Prisoner exchange is the obvious one. Another would be to create provocations and transmit misdirection. But Prigozhin also is operating in a milieu in which such approvals aren't written down anywhere so that they can be turned against one at any time. In addition, he is in an elite power struggle in the Kremlin so it is entirely believable that he would attempt to negotiate a 'victory' in Bakhmut and embarrass his bete noirs, Gerasimov and Shoigu. It is a good example of a pawn imagining that he's a player. 
I don't rate his long term chances. 

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/