BlackMoria

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

My experiences in the Canadian military in winter exercises demonstrated that one can survive in quite harsh conditions but ALL of the below are essential to due so:
1.  High quality and well fitted personal clothing and footwear.  The Canadian military winter gear is very good.   I did have occasion while working with US forces and the UK forces to try their winter gear at the time I was in (mid 70s to mid 90s) and at that time the American and UK winter gear was crap.  Don't know about today's military gear.
2.  Knowledge - this is critical.  You have to know how to fight in winter conditions. How to fit and wear clothes in layers.  Take a layer of clothes off when you start to get sweaty.  How to build shelters.  How to move in the cold.  How to stay warm and DRY while lying prone in snow or on ice for periods of time while on the attack or defence.  Etc.,   And you learn by doing.  Theorycrafting how you get by in the cold just doesn't work.  You learn and modify and improvise your personal cold protection strategies by living and working in the cold.
3.  Mindset - if you think you are going to freeze your arse, you will freeze your arse.   Keeping a positive and stubborn mindset to see you through helps a lot.   Not easy to do at -40C but having all of the above and a positive mindset will see one through.
I have been on winter exercises like Brimfrost 85 were I live in the wilds of the Camp Wainwright ranges in Alaska for 30 days in January.   I have been on several exercises of several weeks duration with the Canadian Rangers in the very far north of Canada in Jan / Feb where I can recall on one exercise in particular, wind chills of -80C.  Without tents.  Each night was burrow into packed snow drifts with 4-5 other people each or we constructed igloos.   And it wasn't that bad a time, as long as you had the three points I outlined above in spades.
The russians do not have point 1 above, point 2 is most likely low or none existent and given the morale and other motivations of Russian forces, they lack point 3.   The basterds are going to have a very, very, miserable existence on the front lines once the cold hit in ernest.  A dare say, if a cold winter, the weather will be more of an enemy than the Ukrainian forces.

Barrel blew off above the recoil system external to the vehicle.  The round most likely cleared the barrel at the time of the malfunction so no 155 detonation so the barrel broke due to propellant prressure.   No external damage to the turret.  The crew would be fine... the big arse breach block on this gun would protect them from such overpressures.  All in all, the damage seems confined to the barrel.  SPG is rotated to rear for 2nd or 3rd line maintenance/repair.  All should be good. - crew survives with little or no injuries and howitzer just needs a new barrel and a detailed inspection for recoil system.  The 155 round on the other hand, could land anywhere from just outside the SPG out to charge bag range.  Hopefully, it didn't hit any friendlies or civilians.

Barrel blew off above the recoil system external to the vehicle.  The round most likely cleared the barrel at the time of the malfunction so no 155 detonation so the barrel broke due to propellant prressure.   No external damage to the turret.  The crew would be fine... the big arse breach block on this gun would protect them from such overpressures.  All in all, the damage seems confined to the barrel.  SPG is rotated to rear for 2nd or 3rd line maintenance/repair.  All should be good. - crew survives with little or no injuries and howitzer just needs a new barrel and a detailed inspection for recoil system.  The 155 round on the other hand, could land anywhere from just outside the SPG out to charge bag range.  Hopefully, it didn't hit any friendlies or civilians.

Barrel blew off above the recoil system external to the vehicle.  The round most likely cleared the barrel at the time of the malfunction so no 155 detonation so the barrel broke due to propellant prressure.   No external damage to the turret.  The crew would be fine... the big arse breach block on this gun would protect them from such overpressures.  All in all, the damage seems confined to the barrel.  SPG is rotated to rear for 2nd or 3rd line maintenance/repair.  All should be good. - crew survives with little or no injuries and howitzer just needs a new barrel and a detailed inspection for recoil system.  The 155 round on the other hand, could land anywhere from just outside the SPG out to charge bag range.  Hopefully, it didn't hit any friendlies or civilians.

Barrel blew off above the recoil system external to the vehicle.  The round most likely cleared the barrel at the time of the malfunction so no 155 detonation so the barrel broke due to propellant prressure.   No external damage to the turret.  The crew would be fine... the big arse breach block on this gun would protect them from such overpressures.  All in all, the damage seems confined to the barrel.  SPG is rotated to rear for 2nd or 3rd line maintenance/repair.  All should be good. - crew survives with little or no injuries and howitzer just needs a new barrel and a detailed inspection for recoil system.  The 155 round on the other hand, could land anywhere from just outside the SPG out to charge bag range.  Hopefully, it didn't hit any friendlies or civilians.

"Death is light as a feather...Duty, heavy as a mountain."    The mountain on Zelensky's shoulder is very evident here.

"Death is light as a feather...Duty, heavy as a mountain."    The mountain on Zelensky's shoulder is very evident here.

"Death is light as a feather...Duty, heavy as a mountain."    The mountain on Zelensky's shoulder is very evident here.

There is another saying.  "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity."   Russian leadership so far has shown that there is 'no bottom' so far for the hole of stupid.  With a huge heaping of Malice on top of this sh*tty sundae to top it off.

Heh.  Sure it doesn't make sense to you.   Just like all the decisions Russia has made in the months prior to 24 Feb and since don't make any sense to most of us.   But here we are.  If Russian sabotaged their pipeline, it makes as much sense as all their other decisions concerning this war to date.   We are in Alice in Wonderland territory now and have been for some months now.   We are at the point the Red Queen (Putin) is screaming off with their heads.    

There is another saying.  "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity."   Russian leadership so far has shown that there is 'no bottom' so far for the hole of stupid.  With a huge heaping of Malice on top of this sh*tty sundae to top it off.

I am thinking it is a 'purity' test.   They can fudge up any number they want but if this is a 'purity' test, drag peoples' asses into voting booths.  Given no cover to the actual voting tables and a well placed camera, they can determine who voted yea or nay.   Also, refusal to vote is likewise a 'purity' test.   Vote 'nay' or refuse to vote - means you are 'impure' and....well, you can imagine what the consequences for that are....

Correct.   Countries don't have friends, they have shared interests.    People in this forum is forgetting that little fundamental reality...

That is some grade A trolling by the Ukrainians.  🤣

Ahhhh,   I hope your solemn regret remark is the BS work and NOT the getting married part.  And if you also meant the latter, for god's sake, don't let your fiance ever read this board.... 😂

Damn, there is still pearl clutching and hand wringing about Putin's nuclear threat after reading the past 4 page.   I view the issue very big picture and it is this.    The big wigs are not thinking about if Putin's red line is Crimea or whatever jigger is teasing his prostate up his *** will do it on any given day henceforth.   It is THE RED LINE that has existed for over 70 years.   The political, military and social costs of using a nuclear weapon since the two dropped against Japan has controlled the narrative - they are weapons too terrible to use, period... establishing THE RED LINE.   That red line was tested several times but managed to hold due to this...  once that red line is crossed, we are truly into the great unknown of what happens afterwards.  I am not just talking the effects and consequences of using the weapons themselves.  It is the real possibility that the red line get erased outright and then assuming we all somehow survive the war that initiated first release, then mushroom clouds become possible in the next conflict, if there is one, after that.  And so forth.
It is one of the reason THE RED LINE has endured until this day.  Cross the line and there is no going back.  And there may be no going forward either if nuclear release escalated to the BIG ONE. The war to end all wars.
Because of that very thing, military planners and leaders of countries right now have restless nights because to some of them, it is one second to midnight in there heads.   But one thing should be clear to them.  They HAVE to respond to THE RED LINE being crossed.  If there is no response or the response is insufficient, THE RED LINE is gone forever, to the peril of every one of us.  Every country with a nuke can coerce their neighbours at will and... well... say goodbye to the Rules Based Societies then.  It will be the Rule of the Strong.  You have no idea what anarchy is like until that occurs.
Which is why THE RED LINE must stand or we risk a second Dark Ages for all of us.  There will be a response to the crossing of THE RED LINE.  Putin knows this.   Because if the shoe was on foot and any nation did a nuke strike on Russians, Putin would respond.  Probably in kind but there would be a response.  And he knows the west will respond to him launching a nuke.   He just doesn't know what the response will be but there will be one.
For the west, the calculus is this.  When the rabid frothing Russian bear lunges across THE RED LINE, you need to put it down.  Hard.  Decisively.  No tut tut or eye rolling.  No pearl clutching or hand wringing.   The bear needs to go down....hard.
I think people in the halls of power in Russia understand this.   The naked man with nothing on but a set of cuffs from a torn shirt can't pull a magic card from those cuffs to respond to our response.  It has to be another nuke(s).  And the west will respond to that.  And that, my friends, is game over.  Probably for most of us.  
The russians know this.    Maybe send them a copy of War Games.  Annotate the spot in the film where the AI says..."Interesting game.  The only winning move is not to play."
 

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet  But it is 100% worth it!

wait, does that mean you are getting married today or in about 15 hours she's gonna read that post and introduce you to a Russian window?

Congrats!!
And if you post in the next few day, a scolding by me you will get.  Starting a life with a wife is primary importance.   Enjoy the time.  The war isn't going to dramatically change in the next fews day.  

Look, we are going to have to agree to disagree here.  You once called my experience into question so let me fill you in a bit - I have personally been on the ground in one civil war and an insurgency.  You are really underplaying a lot of really complex factors here, for example:
“I’m sure there will be some sort of insurgency, but a clampdown of the border should keep it down.”  This tells me that you have zero idea how insurgencies actually work and frankly you are making some extremely dangerous deductions from that.
It appears that you have a firm conclusion and you are wrapping reality around it - this has been a serious strategic error in the past - see Iraq 2003.  
Insurgencies are about an idea.  An idea by a sub-section of a population that things need to be different.  When you are combating one, you are combating that idea.  As you have noted and I do not think anyone can deny, the idea of being “not Ukraine” exists within these regions to a statistically significant level.  Further, these factions have demonstrated that they will act on that idea, clearly.  
So assuming you can “clampdown” on hundreds of kms of coastline in Crimea, and along the Russia  border in Crimea - perhaps by “building a wall”?  You have done nothing, nor have you suggested anything to actually combat the idea of an insurgency- one you admit is likely.  You are glossing over some enormously difficult, some say unsolvable problems, all in pursuit of a nice clean end-state.
”I am not sure it will be a risk to Ukraine’s PR”.  Seriously?  So Ukraine has to deal with two likely insurgencies deeply embedded within two separate regions.  Two insurgencies that you, and others fully admit cannot be solved through democratic process.  So we are at FID.  So how is your history?  Now find me a counter-insurgency, or god help us, civil war, that was nice and clean.  And we are talking years here, maybe decades - the same decade Ukraine is reliant on western reconstruction money.  You think the first collateral damage, or unrighteous shoot isn’t going to wind up on the internet as Macgregor makes as much hay about it within political circles?  One soldier screw up caught on camera and you are talking narrative risk - especially as you are also prescribing restrictions on democratic freedoms.  Even if those reasons are legitimate, it will get lost in the political churn.
I get the point but in the business we call this exposure.  And Ukraine’s exposure in these regions is too high in my estimation.  Beyond the spectre of nuclear weapons, the post-conflict risks are very high as there are all the ingredients for some really dark roads.
Solutions that may actually work:
- kick it over to international community.  Let the UN deal with these open sores and in a generation or two you may have re-integration.
- Let Russia have them and then build a shining city on a hill and attack the idea that life in Russia is better than in a new Ukraine - money and personal interest matter.  Russia is going to botch the job anyway, they are being set up for economic collapse.  Attraction back into Ukraine is a powerful tool, and a win-win if you tie it to democratic freedoms.  In a few years you will likely have them begging to re-enter into the Ukrainian union.
Key attribute here is patience.  Even in the face of atrocity and injustice.  Play it right and you can come out on top without risking WW3 and/or a weeping open sore that covers you in sh#t while you are trying to rebuild a nation.