kevinkin

Sure. But given the assistance NATO is providing already, combined with modern day blockage techniques (sanctions/freezing money flow etc..), war has been declared on Russia de facto. Today, a Declaration of War has really become semantics. But with US HIMARS raining death on Russians, does it really matter? Politicians will often use the excuse of needing a Declaration of War to provide any assistance - not just troops. I think formal Declarations of War are a thing of the past. Warfare does not fit into a defined box anymore. If the money flow into Russian can be stopped without a blockade so be it. But it could be used as the final nail in the coffin. 

That is one outcome for sure. But, I would hope the west could not tolerate continued buzz bomb attacks and give Ukraine the means to stop them. Perhaps oil eating nations like India would have to say enough is enough. Can I suggest a NATO naval blockade against a severely weakened Russia would be possible under those circumstances? 

Another issue with these conscripts (not to belabor the point) is they weigh down the command structure so that even good enough leaders become baby sitters. Their operational/tactical thinking is stuck with supplying basic needs: water, food and shelter(that goes boom) and ammo (that goes boom in the wrong place). Russian culture where you are not a man if you can't endure hardship is a poison under these circumstances. Soon Russian women will out number men to such and extent that new equipment won't matter. 

There have been major concerns about the mobilized conscripts becoming a bigger liability in many ways than an advantage. This may end up being glaring proof of such sentiments.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-troop-loss-catastrophe-in-donetsk-outrages-russias-military-bloggers

Not sure who the writer is, but below is a rather long and footnoted explanation (if not history) of the development of Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine:
 https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/resilience-and-resistance-ukraine
It is sort on unusual for Americans to think along the lines described within the article since we are protected by two great oceans. The thought of an occupying force never enters our minds  while our military focuses of expeditionary warfare. It's hard for the average American to understand how visceral the war is to both sides. Ukraine has been in a state of war constantly and that culture is simply difficult to overcome given proper Western support. What is interesting is the very last word in the report is "Taiwan".  The writer calls on the West to not merely document lessons learned from Ukraine but to begin to practice them. (My take anyway). Resistance warfare is not monolithic, like a motor boat with one engine. But many low tech oars rowing in the same direction without the need of a single navigator. 
 
 

AP on the strike at the technical college:
https://apnews.com/article/kyiv-russia-ukraine-war-vitali-klitschko-86fd573ab5703957663fd40a5ec8d2a6
The strike, using a U.S.-supplied precision weapon that has proven critical in enabling Ukrainian forces to hit key targets, delivered a new setback for Russia which in recent months has reeled from a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
According to the governor of Russia’s Samara region, Dmitry Azarov, an unspecified number of residents of the region were among those killed and wounded by the strike on the town of Makiivka.
Russian military bloggers, whose information has largely been reliable during the war, said ammunition stored close to the facility had exploded in the attack and contributed to the high number of casualties.
Expressing anger at the losses, Daniil Bezsonov, an official with the Russian-appointed administration in Russian-occupied Donetsk, called for the punishment of military officers who ordered a large number of troops to be stationed at the facility.

Not sure who the writer is, but below is a rather long and footnoted explanation (if not history) of the development of Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine:
 https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/resilience-and-resistance-ukraine
It is sort on unusual for Americans to think along the lines described within the article since we are protected by two great oceans. The thought of an occupying force never enters our minds  while our military focuses of expeditionary warfare. It's hard for the average American to understand how visceral the war is to both sides. Ukraine has been in a state of war constantly and that culture is simply difficult to overcome given proper Western support. What is interesting is the very last word in the report is "Taiwan".  The writer calls on the West to not merely document lessons learned from Ukraine but to begin to practice them. (My take anyway). Resistance warfare is not monolithic, like a motor boat with one engine. But many low tech oars rowing in the same direction without the need of a single navigator. 
 
 

Not sure who the writer is, but below is a rather long and footnoted explanation (if not history) of the development of Resilience and Resistance in Ukraine:
 https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/resilience-and-resistance-ukraine
It is sort on unusual for Americans to think along the lines described within the article since we are protected by two great oceans. The thought of an occupying force never enters our minds  while our military focuses of expeditionary warfare. It's hard for the average American to understand how visceral the war is to both sides. Ukraine has been in a state of war constantly and that culture is simply difficult to overcome given proper Western support. What is interesting is the very last word in the report is "Taiwan".  The writer calls on the West to not merely document lessons learned from Ukraine but to begin to practice them. (My take anyway). Resistance warfare is not monolithic, like a motor boat with one engine. But many low tech oars rowing in the same direction without the need of a single navigator. 
 
 

Lots of stories on Kreminna this morning. You can almost taste a shift in initiative going on. 
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kreminna-battle-recapture-russia-supply-lines/32197165.html
A while back the ISW said of the RA:
This composite force grouping suggests that Russian forces are pulling troops from various points throughout the theater to fill holes in the Svatove-Kreminna line and compensate for the continued degradation of conventional units - December 26.
And to the south:
the Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.[1] US military doctrine defines culmination as the "point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,” and “when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.”[2] If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28
This may not crack the front wide open, but maybe sow further doubts in the minds RA grunts.  
I read Wagner is attacking Bakhmut so Prigozhin can show up his "buddies" where in-fighting is more important than sound military thinking. 
https://www.newsweek.com/bakhmut-battle-wagner-group-heavy-losses-isw-1770075
What a way to lose a war. 

More endgame "analysis":
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/100-billion-for-ukraine-congress-needs-to-explain-why/
Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraine people will continue to die in large numbers. 
The stakes are too high for mistakes in our support of Ukraine. Before allocating another dollar in 2023, Congress should explain to the American people how this money advances the vital national interests of our country. Otherwise, we need a new plan.
Then the article just ends. Again, the plan must account for speed since it appears some inside the beltway are getting impatient. This is the second recent report the stares an endless war in the face, but not allowing Ukraine to lose. 
 
 

Lots of stories on Kreminna this morning. You can almost taste a shift in initiative going on. 
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kreminna-battle-recapture-russia-supply-lines/32197165.html
A while back the ISW said of the RA:
This composite force grouping suggests that Russian forces are pulling troops from various points throughout the theater to fill holes in the Svatove-Kreminna line and compensate for the continued degradation of conventional units - December 26.
And to the south:
the Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.[1] US military doctrine defines culmination as the "point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,” and “when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.”[2] If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28
This may not crack the front wide open, but maybe sow further doubts in the minds RA grunts.  
I read Wagner is attacking Bakhmut so Prigozhin can show up his "buddies" where in-fighting is more important than sound military thinking. 
https://www.newsweek.com/bakhmut-battle-wagner-group-heavy-losses-isw-1770075
What a way to lose a war. 

Another summary article today: https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/?sh=4142de85370a
Ukraine supporters, when agitating for more and better weaponry point toward Ukraine’s quick exploitation of the 38 U.S. supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. But these front-line assets are largely “fire-and-forget” platforms, and, as export items, their effectiveness depends more on the end-user’s prowess in finding, reporting and targeting relevant enemy assets.
That is why the U.S. has put a lot of emphasis upon modern command and control assistance. Command post vehicles, including well over 80 different radars of various types, jamming gear, tactical communications systems, SATCOM terminals and surveillance equipment helped Ukraine plug critical capability gaps. And yet, while these tactical tools are high-demand and are, in many cases, considered relatively modern equipment, the U.S. has plenty to offer.
Naval warfare article that sort of reads a bit like the ground warfare conducted by UA leadership: https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/december/nimitz-way
Rear Admiral Bradley Fiske, who said that “there is no sharp dividing line” between strategy and tactics and that the difference between them is “the strategist sees with the eye of the mind, while the tactician sees with the actual eye of the body.” During World War II, Nimitz balanced nurturing leadership with strategic artistry; he “saw” with both of these eyes, coupled tactical outcomes to strategic goals, and became a genius who “does not follow the rules… [but instead] invents them.”
- I found the underlined passage new to me. Successful operations required both eyes on the ball. 

I thought the same just viewing it now.

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO
The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged. 
 

I didn't get the memo. Do we have a flag to salute as well?
Not so sure about that. Back in the day Chuck was a mega-star. More people knew  of his name than of TC. Sure, media has changed with its instantaneous reach. But I think Chuck was far more influential given the name recognition and fewer places to obtain information. Likewise, Walter Cronkite was 100x more influential than anyone on cable news is today. Or twitter or wherever. However, the more information outlets the better. Even if the messenger becomes diluted in all the noise. About entertainers salaries: just follow the money to understand why success in certain professions can be very lucrative in the US.  Brandon Nimmo and TC both make 10 million a year. One is a ballplayer and the other a political entertainer. You can chalk that up to the guy who figured out those platforms are a great place to sell cars and pharmaceuticals.

I don't think anyone had a problem with you posting about Tucker Carlson's attack on Republicans and on Zelensky.
But if your honest about it, you did more than post about Carlson didn't you?  You have gone on to paint all Republicans and all of Fox News with the same broad brush as Tucker Carlson.  (Full Disclosure; I watch Special Report with Bret Baier at 5pm on Fox. I recommend Special Report. It's hard news and has both Democrats and Republicans intelligently discussing the issues. I also watch a lot of the Fox Business channel.) 
I even tried to get you to clarify what you meant by "wingnuts".  Below is a quote of my post.  I seems you chose to ignore my post and went on to argue with other posters who inevitably and predictably pushed back on your "broad brush" post.      
I stand with you against Tucker as I think everyone on this forum probably does.  The only push back you got is when you used a broad brush against BFC customers who are Republicans and/or customers who watch any Fox news.  You said yourself that Tucker attacked "old" Republicans.  You went on to defend the Ukrainians (as was proper IMO) but then turned and took your own shot (wingnuts?) at Republicans.  You then compelled some of those customers to push back even if they were initially with you.  You really think that veteran, combat medic, Beta tester you admonished is pro-Russian?  C-mon Man!!!  You did (caused) that!!        
IMO the proper way to deal with situations like Tucker Carlson is not to censor, band, dox, investigate, harass his family, send the IRS or FBI in order to shut him down because we disagree with him.  But instead use him as an opportunity to debate and show in a reasonable, intelligent way why our ideas are better (because they are).    
It seems Tucker likes to debate (yell and argue often) people on his show.  You, Steve, would be an excellent person to go on Fox and put him in his place.  If you said the word many of us here could call, e-mail, Twitter, FB his office.  I think the odds are better than 50% he would eventually give in and debate you.  You would have an audience of four million on one of the most popular shows in the US. Even if you only connected with one million of the viewers think how great that would be for the Ukrainian cause.  In theory it might be good exposure for BFC.  The computer game designer that predicted the war and spanked Tucker.     

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO
The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged. 
 

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO
The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged. 
 

Nice step by step summary. Clearly recommends the West piling on now when Russia is at it's weakest i.e. don't freeze the battlefield. The threat of WMD will always be there regardless of the strategy moving forward. Putin should freeze the battlefield to give troops and the population a breather - but can't due to warmongers breathing down his neck. Net net, Russian is gasping for air so it's no time to think about negotiations. I have read elsewhere a form of Russia will always exist and with WMD. So best to bled them dry now to delay the next war for many years. 
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia’s-capability-not-its-intent

I wonder how well equipped Ukraine is with FLIR? Both sensors and counter measures. Those  mobiks would stand out well with ground so cold and their blood pumping at 98.6. Try warming up a BTG before an attack while trying to stay hidden. The Black Hornet was in the news, but a UAV with longer loitering at higher altitude time would be nice.  

I wonder how well equipped Ukraine is with FLIR? Both sensors and counter measures. Those  mobiks would stand out well with ground so cold and their blood pumping at 98.6. Try warming up a BTG before an attack while trying to stay hidden. The Black Hornet was in the news, but a UAV with longer loitering at higher altitude time would be nice.  

I wonder how well equipped Ukraine is with FLIR? Both sensors and counter measures. Those  mobiks would stand out well with ground so cold and their blood pumping at 98.6. Try warming up a BTG before an attack while trying to stay hidden. The Black Hornet was in the news, but a UAV with longer loitering at higher altitude time would be nice.  

Was not referring to a decade from now, but the immediate future. For example, guarantees will only go so far until the missile attacks stop. The west and Ukraine need to find a toehold where there is some semblance of stability in the investment environment. They will need to turn the corner from a humanitarian effort to an economically viable re-building effort. That's why I mentioned the kinetic conditions need to be resolved and aerial attacks ended. Then we can  be confident that a decades worth of investment will expand from building basic infrastructure to building a modern western society with all the comforts. I wonder what is easier, reigning in corruption or establishing a peace where Ukraine can thrive? If latter comes first, the former should take care of itself given a decade. 

That may be true and could be a silver lining. But the term used was historically corrupt. Ukraine will need brave investors that will take risks understanding the possible gains to be realized. Politicians are not risk takers resulting in a potential back log of funds when Ukraine will need them the most. In any case, finding investors willing to re-build normalcy when their efforts can be ruined by an Iranian drone flight will be difficult. So one strategic aim is to produce conditions on the ground that will safeguard those investments. Not to mention the complexity of money coming in from all angles and being dispersed likewise. We have to cheer for a young democracy to be able handle such a situation. It will be tempting to take a piece of reconstruction pie. 

Not surprising, but news today on the Patriots:
Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing that the U.S. had "effectively become a party" to the war in Ukraine, per AP.
Ramping up U.S. military assistance, including the transfer of these weapons, "would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences," she added, without going into details.
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/15/russia-us-missiles-ukraine
https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/15/the-hellish-groundhog-day-trap-putin-could-force-us-into/
And one of the ongoing fears about leaving Russia with a Putin and access to missiles:
“It’s Groundhog Day in a war zone with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky playing the role of Bill Murray,” a senior U.S. intelligence official charged with monitoring the conflict says. “Putin isn’t going to stop and he’ll take out whatever is rebuilt just for spite.”
“The Russians are firing about 20,000 artillery shells a day, most of them more than 40 years old,” an analyst explains. “Ukraine fires back with between 4,000 to 7,000 rounds a day. Russia can’t keep that up, so even if they cut back to 10,000 a day—not including rockets and weapons attached to drones—that’s still a lot of hellish damage to the rebuilding effort.”
Although there’s no doubt that Zelensky’s benefactors are sympathetic and eager to fashion what Shapochkina describes as “an overall expectation that postwar Ukraine can emerge as a second Germany in terms of industrial capacity,” intelligence officials say those efforts are doomed to fail until Putin is removed from the trillion-dollar calculation.
There’s another elephant in the room,” warns one intelligence specialist. “How do the politicians dispense what will undoubtedly amount to more than $1 trillion in a country that’s historically corrupt.”
Ouch.