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fireship4

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    fireship4 reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    our friend Denys D thinks UKR making some local counterattacks N & S of Bakhmut.  Gains measured in, literally, meters.  But let us hope this is just the beginning of rolling back some spent RU forces. 
     
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    fireship4 reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Btw,  if we're use WW1 as a reference frame (and I don't disagree with this)  the Russo Ukrainian War is more like the 1st or 2nd Balkan Wars.
    No alliance lock-ins, no actionable security commitments. The major current alliance is defensive and requires voting, so that's a welcome brake on automatic collective suicide. 
    It's the time after this war that will make states lock themselves into alliances for perceived security, one's that are more definitively aggressive in consequences if activated. 
    Tbh,  this timeframe now is more a wierd blend of pre-WW1 (the imperialistic mindset in Russia, China is alive and kicking)  and pre-WW2 (western fear of war's damage gives hostiles the wrong idea). 
    This makes sense in that our current time did not just pop into existence,  the modern political structure is a twisted outgrowth of the 20th century's rivalries,  ideologies,  pressures and security conflicts. 
    Of course, these had their own roots in the 19th century,  and so ad infinitum... 
  3. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Description of a typical attack by forces of a DPR company reinforced with tanks from Mashovets.
     
    I will tell you the story of one battle...
    Place of events - the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk, the area south of Avdiivka, the village of Oprosne.
    Time - a couple of days ago (to be more precise - February 9).
    10.05 - the assault group of the DPR from the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 1st "Slavyanskaya" motorized rifle brigade from their positions in the village of Oprosna in the amount of a motorized rifle platoon, divided into "small infantry groups" of 8-10 people, begins advancing on foot in a northern direction through forest plantation with the clear goal of reaching the border of the village of Severnoye - the western outskirts of Avdiivka and gaining a foothold there. At the same time, a tank platoon (3 tanks of the T-72 type) from the tank battalion of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade is secretly (as it seems to them) advanced to the firing positions on the outskirts of Oprosnoye, and an armored group (up to a motorized rifle platoon) from that the same 1st MRBn of the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade for 1 BMP-2 and 2 MT-LB ...
     
    10.15 - The whole group begins to move in the general direction "to the north", having in front of them "small infantry groups", which on foot try to "infiltrate" as far as possible to the north, it must be understood as a "vanguard detachment". All this takes place under the cover of liquid and not very accurate enemy mortar and artillery fire. From the right flank, this movement is also covered by the intense fire of the ZU-23-2 from the side of the truck, hidden in the sparse bushes and woodlands.
    10.35 - 10.40 - A unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly establishes the direction of movement and combat order of the attacking motorized rifle company (MRC) of the enemy, reinforced by a tank platoon, and opens heavy fire on the enemy during his movement, including using anti-tank weapons ... Ukrainian mortars add fun , which, with the transfer of fire, sequentially, "along the lines", are trying to inflict a fire defeat on the attacking enemy unit ... The enemy slows down its movement, but still tries to continue it further, even under the fire of the defending Ukrainian unit.
    Not later than 11.26 ... one of the enemy T-72s moving on the left flank of the attacking enemy motorized rifle company, hoping to bypass the main positions of the Ukrainian unit from the flank - gets stuck in a pit previously unnoticed by its crew, and then stalls there.
    11.43 ... One of the ATGMs of the Ukrainian unit hits another T-72 not far from the one that got stuck, and makes it stop too ... After about 2 minutes, it becomes clear that some kind of "fire" has occurred in the engine compartment of the tank. The crew leaves the combat vehicle and informs their "bosses" that "the tank has been hit", and they are forced to return to their "starting positions". The third tank, at the same time, takes cover in the "folds of the terrain" and even from time to time fires at Ukrainian positions...
    At the same time, the enemy motorized rifle platoon, operating "on the armor", tried to partially dismount and join the second motorized rifle platoon, which was walking in front of it on landing (as a "forward detachment"), was timely detected and, due to the fire of the Ukrainian unit, was forced to lie down there ...
    Within 20-30 minutes, a very intense radio exchange takes place between all the actors from the enemy’s side, with a very frequent use of a variety of idiomatic and phraseological statements ... Moreover, after another 15 minutes of intense firefight between the “forward detachment”, the surviving tank , part of the "reserve armored group" of the enemy and the Ukrainian unit defending in this area, its key event takes place - the Ukrainians manage to hit 3 enemy combat vehicles at once - the tank that survived by this moment, 1 BMP-2 and 1 MT-LB.
    All affected AFVs become "immobile", and in the damaged MT-LB, the main part of the ammunition load is also detonated, which, one must understand, she was carrying for the entire attacking MRC ...
  4. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gen. David Petraeus: How the war in Ukraine will end (CNN)
    Good interview. I get the feeling David Petraeus would be right at home posting on this forum. 😀
  5. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    France asks its nationals to leave Belarus “without delay”

    Source : Le Monde
     
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    fireship4 reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Moldovan President worries about possible Russian coup
    Source : Le Monde
  7. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    City control map via Wikipedia:
  8. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Sekai in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    City control map via Wikipedia:
  9. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    City control map via Wikipedia:
  10. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They can't do that. I look at Tom Cooper map of this battle, but he is again wrong. This battle has more wide scala, than fighting for dachas SE from the town. 
    Look first of all on satellite map from your post. Do you see except heavy bombed dachas the same heavy bombed pass in right edge of the map? This is maybe more important part of the battle, which Cooper didn't spot. 
     
    Here is my rough map - other directin of Russian attack was north from Mykilske. They tried to seiz UKR strongpoints at mine #1 workshops and air-feeding shaft of mine #!. And fight for latter was also fierce. There was a video of dozens bodies near treeplant - this is from this place. UKR had also main strongpoint on Pivdenno-Donbaska (Southern-Donbasian) coal mine #1, which keeps road Vuhledar-Maryinka. In firsr two days Russians could came almost to the road in the mine area, but soon vere thrown back. So, until they breakthrough line of strongholds NE from Vuhledar, they can't bypass the town. 
    Thus, minimal dimension of battlefield from Pavlivka to air-feed shaft is approx 10 x 5 km. This is about proper CM map sizes for even not large-scale modern operations. And this is I don't take into account possible Russian attempts west from the town on the line Prechystivka-Vuhledar. But its took place, though initially were unsuccessful for Russians
    PS. Mashovets wrote today, that UKR artillery destroyed Russian ammo supply convoy near Vuhledar, destroying dozen trucks and several armored vehicles. Looking for photos/videos.
     

  11. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The second by a Russian tank that I remember, in this case combined with engine generated smoke.
  12. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to MHW in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Capital" (with an "A") comes from the Latin caput, for "head," and it refers to the city that is the center of government. "Capitol" (with an "O") also has a Latin origin, confusingly—it refers to the Capitoline Hill in Rome and to the Capitolium, a particular building on top of that hill.
    Capital = a city / Capitol = a building
    The U.S. Capitol Police work for Congress, not for the Executive Branch, and they normally exercise jurisdiction over the Capitol Building, the surrounding office complexes, and some of the adjoining streets and sidewalks.
    The U.S. Secret Service protects the persons of the president, vice president, and their families; as well as some other senior officials, visiting dignitaries, and a dizzying array of former White House residents. The agency also operates a large, roughly 1,300-officer Uniformed Division, which guards the White House, Vice Presidential Residence, and foreign embassies and consulates all over D.C. I live in the District, and I note that USSS uniformed officers are some of the only police who make traffic stops, and that they respond enthusiastically to calls for service near their posts. A couple weeks ago, a dozen Secret Service cars descended on the supermarket near me after a customer got in a fight with the manager.
    The White House's communications, transportation, mess, and medical services are run by military personnel under the White House Military Office.
    The U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry ("The Old Guard") has two battalions in the D.C. area, mostly tasked for ceremonial roles, but trained as light infantry and for DSCA. Similarly, there's about a battalion at the Marine Barracks. Employing any of these federal forces within the U.S. is legally complicated under posse comitatus, so commanders usually call out National Guard units for civil disturbances or public event support. If I remember correctly, most of the initial force of Guardsmen on January 6th came from the D.C. National Guard—they know the area, are based nearby, and are weighted toward MPs.
    Most of the deployable units in the area report to Joint Headquarters National Capital Region, a part of U.S. Northern Command, at least for non-routine operations. 
  13. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes, as I wrote before Crimea is separate case, as it occupies very important place both in Kremlin imperial ideology and actuall sentiments of Russians. Muscovite-controlled Donbas perhaps too, but rather for hardcore nationalist than Russians populace as a whole.
    As to newly annexed lands it's very doubtful larger Russian population cares about Zaporizhia as much as Putin would like. Even puting awkwardness of internaitonal situation created by this theoretical anschluss aside, these things need time to settle in national psyche. Reality may be very different than administrative acts, which leads into typical Russian schizophrenia when comes to where Russia actually ends.
     
    Kofman trying to summarize situation now; seems like pretty balanced view:
     
  14. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  15. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from Jiggathebauce in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  16. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  17. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  18. Upvote
    fireship4 got a reaction from panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  19. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from holoween in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  20. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  21. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  22. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Can they stop it with the Wehrmacht markings?  You can still fight the Russians.
  23. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In addition to my regular briefings, which include the podcasts In Moscow's Shadows, War on the Rocks, and Geopolitics Decanted, relevant articles from The War Zone, a look through the twitter feeds of Kamil Galeev, @wartranslated, @WarMonitor3 and @DefMon3, and the daily briefing/occasional deeper dive on the War in Ukraine channel (do not start with the Jan 31st edition, the man refuses to clear his throat), I thought I'd promote something I've been more into recently: Vlad Vexler's channel, for it's insight into various Russian topics and their relation to the war.  It has a nice way of linking a previous video at the end of each piece that leads you through his work.  The more casual Vlad Vexler Chat occasionally has a long form Q&A.
  24. Like
    fireship4 got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In addition to my regular briefings, which include the podcasts In Moscow's Shadows, War on the Rocks, and Geopolitics Decanted, relevant articles from The War Zone, a look through the twitter feeds of Kamil Galeev, @wartranslated, @WarMonitor3 and @DefMon3, and the daily briefing/occasional deeper dive on the War in Ukraine channel (do not start with the Jan 31st edition, the man refuses to clear his throat), I thought I'd promote something I've been more into recently: Vlad Vexler's channel, for it's insight into various Russian topics and their relation to the war.  It has a nice way of linking a previous video at the end of each piece that leads you through his work.  The more casual Vlad Vexler Chat occasionally has a long form Q&A.
  25. Thanks
    fireship4 reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actually I was and I've spent a fair amount of time there...including a bit up in the mountains around the Hmong. No intention to be harsh but I feel like the point is one that is often missed: the Russian invasion of Ukraine is *not* like other conflicts post-WWII and the Ukrainians are not in the position of the folks you mention above because Putin managed to both challenge the vital interests of NATO and the West without giving himself any easy path to back down. That fact changes the analysis rather profoundly and I think is the essential flaw in the arguments made by several folks above. 
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