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poesel

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  1. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Scholz and his party get A LOT of flak from everyone (including the other two parties in the coalition) for it. I'm not sure how long he can keep that up. Especially since his dearest excuse ('no-one else delivers tanks/IFVs' 'we only do it together with NATO') has been defused quite nicely by the US ambassador who basically gave a carte blanche for weapons delivery on Twitter.
    I guess his reasoning comes from the part of the population who are absolutely horrified of war in general and see a cease fire as the first and utmost thing that has to happen. I'm not sharing that idea, but it is what some people think.
  2. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry
  3. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry
  4. Like
    poesel got a reaction from pavel.k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry
  5. Upvote
    poesel reacted to A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Something like this would be where I'd start:
    https://thenextweb.com/news/researchers-tricked-ai-ignoring-stop-signs-using-cheap-projector
    The issue with AI is that as amazing as it is, AI does not understand anything, not a thing. It's all about pattern recognition and algorithms to react to said patterns. Learn to disrupt or confuse that and the AI no longer does what the author / owner wants.
  6. Like
    poesel reacted to Cederic in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm a big fan of political street art.

     
  7. Like
    poesel reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Tit for tat.  If they shell a military target or arguably defence plant or logistical target from across the border, HIMARs a similar target in Belgorod oblast.  And counterbattery fire, of course.
    But if they persist in poorly aimed terror shelling of downtowns.... well then, I hope the good citizens of Belogorod and various other towns mind spending a winter without electricity, treated water, sewerage, etc.  Oh, and their rail lines are going down too.  Maybe a few bridges too.
    Put the blast back in Oblast.
    Enjoy your 19th century life, b*tchez....
  8. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is a good one. Very depressing to play. You can choose, how you want to survive and how much compassion you can spare on others. Sobering. 
  9. Like
    poesel reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Those Guild Heighliners cost a full year's spice production.
  10. Like
    poesel got a reaction from Hister in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IF(!) some or all parts of Russia would break away, there would be no real problems with the nukes.
    Why? What these new parts direly & immediately need is:
    international recognition trade contracts Without 1) it will be difficult to stay a political entity, and you are likely to be gobbled up by a neighbor.
    Without 2) there is no money and without that no state, either.
    I guess those parts would be immediately recognized by Ukraine and the Baltics just for the fun of it and to get the ball rolling, but any negotiations with the West will have the #1 demand to destroy the nukes. With nukes, no contract, period.
    With nukes, any new post-Russian state would stay a pariah forever.
  11. Upvote
    poesel got a reaction from kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IF(!) some or all parts of Russia would break away, there would be no real problems with the nukes.
    Why? What these new parts direly & immediately need is:
    international recognition trade contracts Without 1) it will be difficult to stay a political entity, and you are likely to be gobbled up by a neighbor.
    Without 2) there is no money and without that no state, either.
    I guess those parts would be immediately recognized by Ukraine and the Baltics just for the fun of it and to get the ball rolling, but any negotiations with the West will have the #1 demand to destroy the nukes. With nukes, no contract, period.
    With nukes, any new post-Russian state would stay a pariah forever.
  12. Like
    poesel reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Izyum defense plan

  13. Upvote
    poesel reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Site I go to published this today in summary of latest in the war:
    "And really, this offensive is truly possible to all those Territorial Defense Force units stuck in trenches up and down the front for the past six months, getting slammed daily, oftentimes feeling abandoned. Their impossible heroism allowed Ukraines regular army units and 300,000 reserves to prepare in the country’s west, while Western allies equipped and trained them in proper war fighting techniques."
    While we're feeling good about progress it's good to remember who's months of suffering and deaths made this possible. 
     
  14. Like
    poesel reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I understand what you're getting at, but maybe using 'genocide' in that specific context isn't your best play?
    I also feel that stealing land from one country to give it to two others while evicting the legal occupants is probably not a great way to maintain the moral high ground or credibility.
     
  15. Like
    poesel reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 🤔
  16. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not much useful info so far except RU claim they fend off UKR attack "at crossroad to Izum". Well, it looks like UKR reached Vesele.

    regarding the roads - RU has another option to bypass Vessel by turning to Buhaivka. The same name as in one RU solder report about UKR penetration of RU defenses.   
  17. Like
    poesel reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "This video may confuse you"

    Also interesting they mention using an 82-mm M-37 battalion mortar. Yet another WW2 relic lives on...
  18. Like
    poesel reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He did his bit, hope he will keep full use of his legs.
     
  19. Like
    poesel got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, except for Central Africa.
  20. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months. The idea of a fast crumpling and penetrationif of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery. It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.
    Also, some of their thoughts are really not that thought out. 
    Eg Ref the pipes, how do you cross a the river with these?  Lay above the water or below it. Ok, let's try above, so on the bridges or a pontoon. But,  HIMARS, so bridges are Nope and the pontoons are unfinished.  What about below the surface?
    Well, anything on water requires significant (read, highly visible) engineering and support. Now triple that at least for under water,  because currents. River currents are the worst ex-partner ever, sucking up money and wasting time in a wildly uncaring and relentless manner. 
    You don't just drop the pipes on the river bed and hope for the best, at the very least you need to dig a trench,  lay the pipe then cover it,  all the time fighting the current,  which can be significantly stronger at the bottom.
    You could leave them naked on the bed -  but,  you're really,  really taking a chance with debris damage. No river bed is static because currents, plus river currents change drastically seasonally and even daily. A change in current carves a different shaped bed, brings debris and pressure from a different angle and unless you have a high grade, flexible  (read, high tech) pipe joint that can deal with that fundamental nature of riverine sub-marine engineering then you are SOOL.
    Also,  to do anything significant on, in, or underwater you need divers.  Theyll have their own boat, they'll always be nearby,  tracking the construction  and will have a base onshore (even just some SUVs parked together, but if you know what to look for... ). They're not  usually more than a tiny footprint within the operation as a whole but they are absolutely necessary and can be easily visually identified. 
    There's wayy more than this,  but I've got kids to feed and yell at. 
    P. S. Finally,  the pipe has the to Enter/exit the water somewhere. That requires, no negotiation, a shore-side, long run submarine ramp to run the pipe up to and over/through the river bank without drastic kinks in angle. This ramp entrance/exit requires you to carve  a cutting in the river bank or break through existing riverine construction, so again, highly visible. 
    How do I know this? Basic initial analysis on my part, background as an Architect,  Google plus a very high tech process of asking a marine engineer (my cousin in Australia) via text. Super difficult,  yup. 
    ---
    These guys are B-grade. 
    And I mean No offense to you, @Huba. You do great stuff here, I want to be clear. Big fan. 
    Now,  I really gotta go yell at the brats. 
  21. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Perhaps it’s because the U.S. is a country of immigrants (literally, everyone came here from somewhere else, even the “Native Americans” came from somewhere else with each wave conquering, assimilating, or exterminating the existing tribes), that in my view, we have far fewer of the “you don’t belong here, go back to your country” issues. Yes, there are the same diehard racists as any other country, just fewer.
    Case in point; today, a Labor Day fundraising event was held in Boston, Massachusetts (a city infamous for “No Irish need apply signs” posted on businesses during the 19th century) to raise money to help Ukrainian refugees resettle here. It was a joint event sponsored by the Communities of Ukrainian Immigrants AND Russian Immigrants, so as far as I’m concerned, all of the “The only good Russian is a dead Russian, kick them all out” in this thread is nothing more than Racist BS, and throughly disgusts me! Yes, the US has it’s own issues with the same garbage in the political circles, but at least we recognize it for the racism that it is, and try to deal with it.
  22. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Bennie in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A last comment about the Buryatian vet, since my previous was largely misconstrued:
    This guy is just one data point and an atypical one at that. He's not much of a barometer and no one here is drawing general conclusions of any kind, including ones favorable to Russian character or intent. 
    The vet is not politically sophisticated and won't be organizing any peace marches. But he doesn't say, "They are our brothers, so it's kinda sad that we have to kill them for being Nazis." Rather he says, in effect, This is a mess. They are our brothers. It's hard to shoot. Why are we here? F the money i'm going back home to Buryatia and my poverty.
  23. Upvote
    poesel reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You don't look for the pipelines, you look for the fuel trucks. Those are rather findable.
  24. Like
    poesel got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    'We Don't Have An Army': Russian Father Volunteers After His Son Killed In Ukraine, But Returns Disillusioned
    https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-soldier-father-son-ukraine-war/32015966.html
    I guess this guy is far beyond from fearing any repercussions for telling the truth.
  25. Upvote
    poesel reacted to Bennie in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I didn't see it this way at all. He says, "What are we doing here? They are our brothers; it gets hard to shoot." I mean, how much more can he say with current political climate?
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