rocketman

Sounds like we are definitely going to need a new CM engine.  Seriously, we almost broke the current one with the CMCW maps and those ranges are nowhere near what we are talking about here.

Very good points and the technological issues will have to be solved.  Makes me wonder what the UA have been doing because apparently they are already there.
The only reason I can think of to give tanks the job of direct-indirect fires is mobility.  Nothing in the artillery inventory can match the mobility of an MBT. So lateral battlefield mobility with a breakthrough option at medium ranges kinda sounds better fitting a tank - although as you point out not optimized.
I suspect the new heavy will be a hybrid solution that has mobility and survivability but can hit at 10km first round kills.  I also like the idea of heavy as the energy carrying platforms for light, particularly unmanned - so mothership concept.  Particularly if UAS are really just ammunition, then heavy can carry and project that ammunition - this is similar to the carriers in the maritime domain.

I'm not sure about the exact details, but the S300 is very inaccurate vs ground targets, not that the ruzzians care if it hits a residential building or a playground
 

Fitting that @rocketman would find the info on the number of rockets 🙂
Interesting. They have a lot left. Crap. Especially since they are using the S300 missiles against ground targets.
The tweet from the Ukrainian defence minister:
Obviously the above has generated a lot of articles - but they are all based on these numbers. I suppose we have to wonder how accurate these are. With the US and allies intelligence the UA may well have pretty accurate numbers. That doesn't mean we get the perfect picture here of course. But as it has been said before the UA tends to play it straight so there is that.
Last month the Australian Broad Casting company wrote this:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-17/explainer-what-is-the-state-of-russian-missile-arsenal/101538356
Which has a lot less detail but seems to be close enough to the spirit. They are starting to run low but not out of their most advanced missiles but they have loads and loads of other less accurate ones left.

I misremembered, this is the one:
 

IIRC youtuber Jake Broe or Reporting from Ukraine did an update just a few days ago.

And New York City was founded by the Dutch as New Amsterdam.  So I guess if Aragorn et al decide to take it back we are obligated to comply.  Fortunately my spies tell me that Aragorn is so busy w the new CMRT battle pack that NYC is safe for the foreseeable future.  😀

Left - WWI photos, right - Bakhmut, present days

 

Ok, let me hit this on the head one last time because it is going to a really bad place.  And I totally get the sentiment but we need to be absolutely clear on this point - being the 'good guys' and acting like a modern professional military means all the time, no matter what. 
No days off, no "revenge breaks" and definitely no "hey they are doing it."
Only a combat veteran of Afghanistan or Iraq can describe just how badly we wanted to call in an A10 and wipe out an entire grid square after one of your own goes home in a box.  Or retaliate when the insurgents did some really dark sh#t.
But that ain't the gig, ever.  The single biggest point civilians do not get about war is that 'killing' is not the hard part - the hard part is 'to not keep on killing'. 
We clipped guys for holding a cellphone in the wrong place for too long, chewed up teenagers digging hole in roads, and a hammered into meat a few farmers dumb enough to stick around.  We did it and high-fived when we dropped them.  We slept soundly that night and never thought twice about doing it the next day. 
But we never let that out of the professional box we kept it in - the second we did, and could no longer tell which way was up - even when the other team was basically operating on Genghis Khan ROEs - we would stop being soldiers and become something else. And then the whole thing starts to unravel.
The RA and Russia will pay for their actions for decades.  War crimes are one of the key indicators that the RA is in freefall and not a coherent fighting force - military discipline has fallen apart on a wide scale, and they are reaping that field this fall.
But we beat them by being better than they are, forever.    

You may recall 2014 Putin delayed his war in Ukraine specifically until after the Sochi winter Olympics was over. Feb 2021, while the Beijing Olympics was taking place, I said that Putin's gonna pull the trigger within a week of the closing ceremonies - and he did.

Hi all
I've created this post to make available some resources that may be of use to players.
I've attached the Five Days One Summer campaign flowchart - so you can see where you are going, if you wish. If you'd rather not see into the future then best not read it.
I've attached the Tigers at Ogledow campaign flowchart - again possible spoilers here so if you'd rather not know, don't look!
Also I've attached a SPW Training Missions Tactics and Lessons document. This document provides a deeper overview of the doctrine and tactics taught (and used) by German armored panzer grenadier units equipped with the Sdkfz 251 halftrack and its variants (referred to as a Schützenpanzerwagon or SPW) in the later part of the war, around 1944. Its main intent is to provide additional background to the series of scenarios and missions in the battle pack for Red Thunder, in particular the series of three SPW ‘Lesson’ series scenarios. My thanks to @domfluff who reviewed this and provided tactical insight, oh and it was his idea originally.
Five Days One Summer Wiking panzer grenadier mods - I've added a wee package of mods I used for the grenadiers in the Five Days One Summer. I basically assembled others excellent mods to create a look which is in the Wiking Mods GMc Mix . Main changes are grenadiers are in light battle rattle - no extraneous kit, crusher caps are M43s and senior officer has a 'Wiking' cuff band and a M43. My thanks to the talent and good will of Aris, @EZ (WSS Senior Officer and WSS camo uniforms), @Frenchy56 (Crusher and side caps to M43) @kohlenklau (No-gear mod - the campaign is mod tagged 'no gear') @Lucky_Strike (Senior officer peaked caps to M43s). I used Aris' Soviet tank mods, his Soviet faces and VM's summer Soviet uniforms.
Five Days Campaign Overview_v1.pdf SPW Training Missions Tactics and Lessons_FINAL.pdf
1831305623_FiveDaysOneSummerMods.rar
Tigers at Ogledow Campaign Overview_v1.pdf

From airfield attack apparently....
 

WHOA!  wants to live in an evidence-based reality???  and willing to change his beliefs based on evidence?  Excellent example to those who live in a belief-based reality, where when evidence/reality conflicts w belief one simply denies reality.  

Those that significantly change their support for Ukraine over Ukraine's reaction to this single situation were just waiting for an excuse to do so.   From my perspective, Ukraine has been pretty forthcoming and transparent in their comments and approach throughout this war.  And if Russian bloggers/press try to hammer Ukraine for this single instance they should look in the f'ing mirror as Russia lies and deflects about everything---even when it's blatantly obvious they are lying.
 

With all due respect kraze, this one thing is not about Ukraine, and taking this position only harms your cause at the moment. What happened, happened, nobody will hold it against you, but avoiding responsibility and hiding behind a conspiracy is 100% counterproductive, and can quickly lead to a diplomatic crisis with far going consequences.

So if anyone wants to take a break from this entire Poland missile thing - 
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/war-not-an-excuse-ukraine-rail-boss-keeps-trains-running-1.6155075
So this is the kind of thing that I look for with respect to metrics.  If you are in the process of invading a nation it is normally a really good idea to directly attack and degrade its ability to defend itself.  Russia has clearly demonstrated the intent and capability, what it appears to lack is expertise, or perhaps the ability to unify that expertise - but my big question since this started is "why"?  The general answer has been a lot of eye-rolling "well Russia is just dumb" but how they are "dumb" is important to my mind - what is their epistemological failure-engine being driven by?
In this war Russia has expended a LOT of high priced long range missile hardware - https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/october/lessons-russian-missile-performance-ukraine.  It is noted that they are likely having very high failure rates; however, this is further compounded by shortfalls in Russian ISR that allows for precise targeting even assuming all the missiles work.  
But there is more.  We have been bouncing a hypothesis around this forum on how a lot of this war is about Russian identity and its place in the world - that internal political dimension definitely plays a role, at least in Putin's calculus.  Further it is about Russian identity relative to Ukraine - this would be akin to the US invading Canada and losing (again, *ahem 1813*), the collective identity impacts would be severe.  However, we have also suspected that those "identity biased assumptions" have been driving the progress of this war - from the wildly overambitious opening moves, to the re-set of objectives and responses.  In fact it was demonstrated that poor strategic assumptions were a factor for Russia, even back in 2014.
So what?  Well the complete failure to effectively degrade Ukrainian rail is another potential peice of evidence that support that central hypothesis.  Russia has focused its limited long range fires capability on terror strikes, and now it finally appears to be focusing on civilian power infrastructure to keep the heat and lights out.  The central Russian premise appears to be that Ukrainian collective will is vulnerable and all they need to do is keep hitting it towards failure.  Somehow just one more hard push and the Ukrainian resolve will falter - this is nuts at this point in the war.  I have brought up relative rationality before and Russia clearly is suffering from it.  To the point that it is driving their military targeting enterprise.  Russia should theoretically be able to cripple the Ukrainian rail infrastructure.  Railways do not move, their supporting infrastructure is impossible to hide - one can see it from Google Earth.  If Russia had done that, the ability of Ukraine to conduct two simultaneous operational offensives separated by over 400 kms would have been severely challenged. Ukraine having a rail system able to sustain an "85% success rate" (something I know the UK would find impossible to do right now in peacetime, having just suffered their rail system) should not be possible at this point in a war this large - especially when their opponent has the ability to hit the full range of their nation. 
So, so what?  This is less about Russian targeting "sucking" - although their missile failure rates definitely point to that, this is about Russian decision making being 1) rigid well past the point of general rationality, and 2) built on flawed assumptions more about them than the reality on the ground.  For those who have been following this thread throughout the war I understand that this is not really news, but it does lead to a series of indicators and warnings we should be watching out for in case Russia actually figures out that its assumptions are completely broken.  However, I also suspect that they are well past the point of return regardless - too many losses and failures along with the continued corrosion of the RA means that even if they did figure it out now, it is likely already too late to change the trajectory of this war. 
I already have a book title in mind - "A warm, dark, smelly, but safe place - How Russia went to War with Its Head Up its Own Bum."

So it seems that Biden intends to take no chances and have the funds secured before the changes in the House? That is reassuring for 2023, but if that drags on longer, it might be a problem later on...
Also, tomorrow morning Sweden will announce it's military aid package to Ukraine, and there are strong rumors about Archers finally being delivered - fingers crossed for that!

Shipping Ukraine a hundred ATACAMS seems like a perfectly reasonable response.

Zelenskiy just claimed NASAMS hit 10 targets from 10 tracked - 100 % result. NASAMS became operational about a week ot more ago. Two systems were deployed in Ukraine, but number of batteries and launchers unknown
Kyiv sky also guard IRIS-T, their results also enought high, allegedly about 90 %

 

The Czech Republic just designated the current Kremlin administration as "terrorist". I'll quote the reportage, since it's on a "live page" and will move/get swamped by later developments:
 
 

Today's strike ecxeed the levcel of Oct 10th with its 84 missiles. 
90 cruise missiles (mostly Kh-101/Kh-555 and about dozen Kalibrs from Black Sea) and 10 Shakheds launched in three waves. Missiles flew from different directions, i.e through Belarus.
73 missiles and 10 Shakheds shot down
15 power infrastructure objects hit mostly in western regions.
Around Kyiv 18 missiles shot down from 21, which attacked Kyiv, Kyiv oblast or just passed further to other regions. From them at least 4 missiles shot down over Kyiv.
Fragments of two shot down missiles have fallen on two residential buildings, causing death of woman, 3 citizens were traumatized.
Air forces also claimed shot down of UCAV "Orion"

Another 12 ceasars.  

If I were the sort of army that had been planning a push south from Zaporizhizhia, husbanding my resources while corroding the Russians West of the Dnieper, it would be entirely in keeping with that strategy to force Russia to take defending the entire line of the river seriously. 
Personally, I'm not that sort of army. But you may know of one.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-12-2022/index.html
Bipartisan support or no, the facts of Democratic control of the Senate and a very slim Republican majority in the house absolutely guarantees US support and an inevitable Ukrainian victory. Even a premature death/incapacitation of Biden would do little to affect long term and sustained support. 
For Biden personally, I'd say beating Trump and Putin are too massive legacies he will probably look back on with unending satisfaction. 
Crimea delenda est.