rocketman

About Soledar. From what I read from different sources, situation was approx next. Again there was coincidention, when part of UKR troops came on position after roatation and Russians in this moment launched mass attack. Officers of new arrived units almost didn't organize communications with right and left neighbours and with troops, which remained on positions in northern part of the town. Crisis has started not two days ago, but earlier likely on 4th Jan, when Russians captured Bakhmutske village and next day all SE part of Soledar. Allegedly some officers of new arrived troops just abandoned own soldiers, which caused collapse of control and fleeing from positions.
For example one platoon suddenly has found out that they are completely surrounded by enemy in own position in 5-storey building, because their neighbours just retreated and didn't warn them. They about day sat in full encirclement and only in the night could to sneak to UKR-controlled part of town with support of 46th air-assault without losses. Not all their comrades were so lucky - there was a video  issued by Wagners after mopping-up of the similar 5-storey building, where they showed about 5-7 dead soldiers on the stairs and near entrance door (there was too dark on video, but at least several bodies had yellow tapes)
Lost of Bakhmutske and SE part of town caused pressure on Pidhorodnie village - UKR troops retreated form most part of village - this were elements of 57th mot.inf. brigade. I will not wonder if this "unlucky" brigade caused this collapse since Jan 4th. But I can't confirm this yet on 100 %.
Next gain Russians had on 6th of Jan, when they captured 1st, 2nd, 3rd salt mines complex. And since this day in UKR social media started huge PsyOps attack, alas, picked up by many UKR accounts "we have lost all, Soledar has fallen, Bakhmut next, it betrayal!". 
In the night from 6th on 7th Jan units of 46th air-assault brigade conducted counter attack and likely regained control over salt mine compplex. 
Known selfie of Butusov was made on the territory of 4th salt mine (museum) in 400 m west from occupied salt mine complex, but this video, appeared today, how UKR tankers with support of Border Guards drone shell Russians, shows that probably yesterday clashes took place at the eastern end of salt mines territory and UKR troops very likely mopped-up it.
 
 
Geolocated:

46th air-assault claims they control Soledar (be fair, NW part with townhall) and UKR troops are repelling continous attacks of Russians from three sides. 
Our soldiers note that Russians are attacking with huhe mass of infantry, with small number of armor, but with mass of mortar and arty fire. Before new year UKR destroyed with HIMARS strike large ammo dumps in Brianka and Kadiivaka, which caused defficite of shells, so Russian (mainly Wagner's) arty significantly reduced own activity and Wagners accused General Staff in almost sabotage. This caused next level of tensions between Prigozhyn (FSB) and General Staff, but looks like at last Wagners got new batch of shells and they renewed attacks. Also in this time to attacks on Bakmut direction were involved some VDV and LPR units. 
 

source: https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1611089317962866691

UKR tank after Lancet strike. ERA is worked properly - 4 blocks were activated, one was damaged. Explosion also damaged smoke grenade launcher, also was dmaged external fuel tank

Real nice of Greece to do this.
 

Indeed worth checking out. For the about total of 15 turns I have played I'd say on average 5-10 times longer upload time compared to Dropbox using CM Helper. Downloading a trun is also much, much slower.

My oppo is MIA as well. Does Matrix moderate the tournament at all? Remind players to keep the turn pace? I think players who sign up for tournaments and not keep their commitment (unless valid reason) should get some kind of warning. Three warnings and you can't sign up for tournaments for six months or so. I hate being left hanging. Waste of time of getting involved in the battles.

New UA estimate of RU missile stocks. IF it is true, then they are practically out, having enough for maybe 2 more barrages, after which they will be literally empty. 

My oppo is MIA as well. Does Matrix moderate the tournament at all? Remind players to keep the turn pace? I think players who sign up for tournaments and not keep their commitment (unless valid reason) should get some kind of warning. Three warnings and you can't sign up for tournaments for six months or so. I hate being left hanging. Waste of time of getting involved in the battles.

FWIW, Dave and I are still playing this one and my last outgoing was turn 42 - no issues so far.  Apart from him knocking out a couple of my IS2s.

Absolutely.  All war is sacrifice.  I use that term deliberately and it does not mean to simply be willing to "give something up".  Sacrifice actually means "to make holy" or "sacred".  This is a point Clausewitz completely missed.  War is extremely personal as we literally sacrifice people for something bigger.  The real question is just how much we believe in that "bigger" thing.  This is more than "cost", it is the fundamental changes that happen at both macro and micro cultural levels as a result of any war.
Ukraine is sacrificing - making holy costs - in defence of their ability to be free to chose their own future.  Russia is sacrificing - making unholy costs - in defence of some false vision/narrative being sold to them by a kleptocrate and his cronies to stay in power. Sacrifice negotiates with Certainty, now whose certainty is more righteous?
No society can withstand endless sacrifice without breaking.  However, when I see Ukrainian boys holding wooden rifles better than a lot of western soldiers, I can only see a society that has a pretty deep cultural zeitgeist right now - killing Russians.  The Ukraine that went into this war, will not be the one that comes out.  Russia and Putin have likely created a regional power pole in all this that will change the face of Eastern Europe, just to add to the bafflingly bad strategic outcomes they constructed in all this.   
However, after all that we are back to "when does it end?"  Well I think that is directly tied to the point when the Sacrifice gets close enough to the Certainty.  Kherson was painful.  There will be other operations that are just as painful.  Hell we may see a Ukrainian defeat before this is all over.  But to my mind, the average Russian's ability to "change the channel" is waning everyday - e.g. a lot of the middle-class Russian's left.  And the Russian Sacrifice-to-Certainty equation is very different then Ukraine's - time is not on Russia's side. 
This war will end when Ukraine and the West have won enough, and Russia has lost enough.  A lot of people post that "this war will end when Putin decides", or "it will end when Ukraine decides" - this is incorrect.  A war is a living breathing entity, it carries its own weight and influence.  History is filled with wars that should have stopped but didn't.  Or ones where the job was not finished but stopped anyway.  Wars have stopped on executive decision.  They have stopped on broader public decision.  They have also stopped because of weather events and eclipses.
In the end this war will end when it makes sense to end it. The "making sense" part is the hardest thing to determine as it is filled with relative rationality, emotion, power, culture, relationships and human failings/strengths.

That was fun
Never seen anyone make a video from one of my scenarios and I least of all thought this one in winter setting would be the first one. Looks like you played it well. IIRC there was more reinforcements from the German side, did they cause any problems?

The 'All in One' update is almost finished & thanks to @Ithikial_AU, @umlaut , @t34577685 & @Kuli will feature a new look to the Soviet Infantry... including snowy uniforms.
Here I try out a wintery version of the @rocketman scenario "Last Resort"...
 

I think there is a coherent argument that the Russian military is in collapse, the rate of that collapse is really the outstanding question.  Personally I see collapse a "a failure to be able to sustain option spaces".  Collapses come in many flavors, the dramatic cascade failures get all the ink but I think history demonstrates that these are really just the punctuation marks on a longer process of systemic degradation.
Russia has seen its option spaces continually shrink in the prosecution of this war.  They had the most options on 24 Feb, and ever since then it has been a slow and steady compression.  Some has been forced by the UA and some by Russia itself.  Examples:
- On 23 Feb 22 Russia had pretty broad options, which included to not-invade.  Then on the 24th those options began to shrink.  They committed pretty much their entire ready-force on one Hail Mary plan: no Lviv cut-off back up, no strategic erosion campaign fall back.
- By the end of March, they had lost all viable options in the North around Kyiv and their main effort.  So they politically weaseled into new "real" objectives, which was simply accepting and re-selling the reduced options they already had.
 -  By the summer, they had run out of strategic options that relied on manoeuvre.  Recall those maps with sweeping red arrows drawn all over them - those were utter fiction.  The RA had lost an ability to sustain that sort of warfare over the Spring.  So they were down to attrition and mass based options at Severodonetsk, making incremental gains while simply trying to hold on everywhere else.
- Enter the HIMAR campaigns, along with other capability and by Aug/Sep 22 Russia no longer had viable offensive options at the operational level. 
- Then they lost any an all options around Kharkiv and Kherson over the Fall.
They are literally down to symbolic tactical grinding at Bakhmut and holding on by their fingernails everywhere else.  Their force generation capability is slumping downward and their last option of nuclear weapons is a dead end.
All the while the UA develops capability and a broader array of options in an expanding portfolio.  Simple equation that says a lot about this war:
Capability x Speed/Agility/Precision = Options.  Options x Cognitive Advantage (Information) = Outcomes.
A whole lot is trending towards zero  for Russia.  As to when the whole thing starts failing fast...l that is the big question.  My money is the next major move by the UA is flank pressure to pull the RA east and west simultaneously.  Lotta opportunity on that Eastern flank and keeping pressure up south of Kherson - in my dreams an amphib action is on the table, but that is likely asking way too much (now there is one interesting CM campaign).  And then when the the RA is stretched thin in the middle, they will try to cut that corridor and separate the two.  A drive to Melitopol is the most likely, but there are other...wait for it...options.
With the strategic corridor cut the two AOs are now connected by land only thru that bridge Ukraine already damaged, and air/sea but those are not optimal if the UA hold the North Coast of the Azov Sea.  All traffic basically has to go around the back across the Black Sea while that big bridge gets HIMARsed - Crimea basically becomes another larger Kherson pocket on the wrong side of a water obstacle.  The UA can then squeeze until things turn purple.
Will this be enough for the political house to come down - unknown, but I definitely think it has potential.  Someone in the Russian power mechanism, as ponzi as it is, has to realize that one 70 year old losing a major land war is simply not worth it at some point.  

At the very beginning of the war, former ATO participants were primarily taken into the territorial defense. When I tried to get there, they first of all asked me if I had combat experience, when they found out that I didn’t, they said that people with combat experience were needed now and that people without experience could only count on auxiliary positions in the rear without weapons (dig trenches , transport the wounded, deal with logistics).
When I was in hiding in Irpin, I met many men who were also not taken by the territorial defense due to lack of combat experience.
in addition, in the street battles for Irpen, the territorial defense acted in small groups, reinforcing units of the army and police special forces - these are guys who are specially trained for operations in the city.
 
I think that the territorial defense of Sumy is now located near the border with Russia and covers the border from a possible Russian invasion from the Kursk region

Happy New Year for all!
This night instead fireworks we had bright light&acoustic performance "Shakheds attack". 32 drones attacked Kyiv. Projectors beams, flashes in the dark sky, thunders of explosions and flaming debrises. On background of this hundreds of shouts from the windows "Putin khuilo!", "Glory to Ukraine!" and national anthem singing. All 32 drones were shot down (NASAMS participated too), fragments of one slightly damaged one infrastructure object. Recently more 13 Shakheds were shot down in other regions of Ukraine
PS. During the day attack Russia launched at least 6-8 Iskanders. Most of them on Mykolaiv. But one or even two missiles reportedly were intercepted - one Iskander was shot down over Kyiv and probably one in Mykolaiv.   
 

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.  Does anyone actually still believe that 200 of either of these platforms would sweep the Russians from the field?
If one could get past the integration bill (training, organization and logistics), which is a pretty big hurdle in the middle of a shooting war - “what about the M777 and Pz 2000!?” well integration of a few dozen arty sub-units is one thing, and even with these we know there have been challenges.  Integration of a Bdes worth of armour which has to fight in close cooperation with a Ukrainian military organized very differently than the German or US Army is something else entirely.
But for arguments sake let’s bypass those issues and say in 6-12 months the UA can fully integrate these systems into their current battle order…ok, so what?  Last I checked both the Leo2 and M1 still run on the ground and are vulnerable to mines, which we know the Russians are planting everywhere.  They are big, fat, hot concentrations of steel that even the RA ISR will be able to find quickly.  The RA still has ATGMs last I checked, and a lot of them. And last I heard all western tanks run on gas…a lot of gas, and need ammo and spare parts.  So their logistics system will also be a big target.  In fact a lot of what we have heard and seen on tanks in this war makes little sense in terms of doctrine - “indirect fire role 10kms from the FEBA”, how are western tanks going fundamentally change this?
I get the sense that some still believe that 200 Leo 2’s or [insert my favourite tank from CM] would end this war by next Tues. Well that position is not supported by the evidence we have seen in how this war is being fought.  In fact the cost of a few hundred western tanks could be more than they return on investment at this point.  To wit The_Capt’s prescription for western support:
- give them all the C4ISR 
- give them stuff they can use, right now.
- prioritize supporting the big three - infantry and infantry support, unmanned systems (both offensive and defensive/counters), and precision fires.
- prioritize logistics.
- and once you have got all that, then send in limited complete tactical capability packages that the UA can operationalize.  So we are talking a western tactical system, top to bottom, that the UA can make best use of in how they are waging this war.  One that does not force them to have to shift entirely to a western based doctrinal approach that we have zero evidence would even work.
People want this to be a nice and neat western conventional war, over in a week or two…it is not, that ship has sailed. In fact the few western near-peer conventional wars we have had are terrible parallels to try and draw from for this war.  This is the real deal - brutal, grinding and drawn out.  This does not mean “frozen”, it means attrition is back in play - it is foundational in corrosive warfare. Fast, loose and easy manoeuvre warfare is sitting on the sidelines with a broken nose.  We all need to get used to that idea.
All war is certainty (a vision of how we want the outcome to be…we cannot lose this), communication (it goes slow…then fast), negotiation (what does victory look like?  What does defeat look like?), and sacrifice (what are we willing to pay?).

Someone swiped at you for a battlepack that has massive amount of excellent battles for just $10??  F them.  Your work on this was excellent. 
That does not mean that I have changed my opinion of how evil you are for wrecking so much of my beautiful kampfgruppe at Rakow. 

The one item that might throw a wrench in China's relationships to any former Russian territories is their treatment of the Uighur people.  The "stan's" have every reason to be highly suspicious of and likely antagonistic. For the most part the present governments acquiesce for the money, however continued attacks by China on a Muslim minority could easily lead them to become the new great satan.  China's treatment of these people has been extreme, even to the level of competing with Russian barbarity.

First off thanks to all those who have supported the Battlepack by purchasing it, and a shout out to those who have provided their support in the creation of this project – and a huge shout out to those who have freely given their feedback and additional support publicly via various means – online streaming vids, DARs, AARs and various forum posts etc, Its truly heartening to read and see these. 

It’s just as well, being Scottish, that we are renowned for being slow to anger and not prone to unprovoked outbursts. On a personal note a mahhoosive amount of work went into the battle pack, at my end. Work of which I am truly proud off. The lion’s share of research, mapmaking and AI plan stuff was devoted to the two campaigns and the Rakow and the Dying Sun scenario. These all involved painstakingly creating huge new maps from primary sources. Research turned up several ‘loose’ ends regarding accepted historical narrative and I’m as chuffed with these as the scenarios!

I digress… In short this sucked up a huge amount of time and I was also involved in several other projects (which I was keen to be involved in including CMFR and CMCW). Creating new content, AI plans etc for the Battlepack was a significant endeavour. So yup I used bits of various previous maps (which were my own creations and made available publicly) which I then significantly tweaked – mainly because I could not positively ID RL locations, or the fact is I thought the map – like Der Ring (which by the way took nearly a year to produce) to have a new life after some major tweaking. I’ve done this on previous game families with other maps. A few astute observers might have spotted them. 

But, and I should stress this, in the case of Der Ring it was heavily reworked and I created brand new AI plans (I had to as I’d chopped and reused bits) etc. So yes whilst some stuff is based on sections of der Ring they are more the offspring – rather than the map wearing a false wig and a pair of dodgy specs…

Re the rather offensive swipes about scamming, well,  re the master maps it’s pretty clear that as stated on the BFC website that they are “New maps based on maps from the Battle Pack missions”. 

Years back I used to be with a punk band – another life another story…. One of the bands (way more successful than we were) we did some gigs with, had their singer on one of their records state this quote, it was along the lines of – “Whatever you do they’ll slate you off and criticise you to the ground…” It’s stood me in good stead through life.
So aye happy to take the constructive knocks, but I’m less inclined to give credence tae whingers.
 

Next updated RUMINT with referring to "anonymous sources in RU General Staff" about Engels attack: 5 bombers heavy damaged, 2 got light damages, control tower damaged, 17 killed, 26 wounded.
Rumors in local chats already talk about 5 destroyed Tu-95 and 6 damaged Tu-160 + cruise missiles dump blown up. The city as if is closed for exit and entrance. 
Probably nice PsyOps from our side.

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

I'll make this one comment on the topic. (Some of) You US forum members comment on politics in other countries like you are automatically right because you are the grown-ups and the rest of the world are just squabbling children. And yet you can't even discuss something as disgusting as the words of this Carlson guy without being at each other's throats.
And I wish I could blame you for it but we are no better. The thing is, we discussed more than once that the current conflict is a clash of systems. But what good is democracy when we can't actually discuss politics?
*sigh*
Anyway, Merry Christmas, all of you.

That lawn mower brigade was snarling at my mixed race 8 year old back in 2020 on the street in front of my house. 
Sorry to personalize it but I think it's important to that people understand what it was like to keep a baseball bat by the front door because actual fascists were parading around your city for a couple of years.
PS The point not being that my family went through some things but to make it clear that what people saw from a distance as a sudden event was actually a sustained effort for months/years that culminated in that event. And part of that effort was that the local police were effectively paralyzed by the administration in office. That's *not* a clown car. Tucker and his ilk should not be underestimated. 

Tired of this both sides nonsense. The sickness comes from one network, one party. One party is pushing Putin propaganda, one party tried to overthrow the government. It wasn't CNN, it wasn't the Democrats.

Just remember that Carlson has a boss that could pull him off the air with a phone call, and hasn't.