womble

It's not just The_Capt that wants it. It's Ukraine, too. Who do you think would be the preferred target of fractious warlords (other than each other) with nukes? Who's right next to said warlords if they start lobbing nukes at each other?
That is, if you assume there's an actual threat of thermonuclear explosion. Once central authority has collapsed, who's going to be able to actually maintain these things in working order, and bypass the failsafes that certainly exist to stop random custodians of Armageddon from getting frisky already? Assuming that Putin doesn't press the Big Red Button (or perhaps that him attempting to press it is what gets him a Makarov Ear Wax Removal (9mm or .380).
Perhaps the bigger worry for Ukraine is a spiteful Putin (or whomever) giving the launch order as a desperate attempt to "win" the "SMO". Whether it's a Tac Nuke or something bigger, that's a city, probably Kyiv. Maybe several; depends on how spiteful the launch-order-giver is feeling, how many fail to launch, how many get intercepted and how many fizzle. Whether the risk/result numbers make it "better" to have a rapid win with the risk of nukes or a slow frog-boil where nukes aren't a consideration is something that's very hard to know, and we certainly should be grateful we don't have to personally enumerate that dreadful calculus.
Obviously, to a rational view, nuking anywhere isn't going to get Putin a win, but we keep having to remind ourselves that our definition of rational doesn't necessarily apply to the criminal insane asylum that is the Kremlin.

It's not just The_Capt that wants it. It's Ukraine, too. Who do you think would be the preferred target of fractious warlords (other than each other) with nukes? Who's right next to said warlords if they start lobbing nukes at each other?
That is, if you assume there's an actual threat of thermonuclear explosion. Once central authority has collapsed, who's going to be able to actually maintain these things in working order, and bypass the failsafes that certainly exist to stop random custodians of Armageddon from getting frisky already? Assuming that Putin doesn't press the Big Red Button (or perhaps that him attempting to press it is what gets him a Makarov Ear Wax Removal (9mm or .380).
Perhaps the bigger worry for Ukraine is a spiteful Putin (or whomever) giving the launch order as a desperate attempt to "win" the "SMO". Whether it's a Tac Nuke or something bigger, that's a city, probably Kyiv. Maybe several; depends on how spiteful the launch-order-giver is feeling, how many fail to launch, how many get intercepted and how many fizzle. Whether the risk/result numbers make it "better" to have a rapid win with the risk of nukes or a slow frog-boil where nukes aren't a consideration is something that's very hard to know, and we certainly should be grateful we don't have to personally enumerate that dreadful calculus.
Obviously, to a rational view, nuking anywhere isn't going to get Putin a win, but we keep having to remind ourselves that our definition of rational doesn't necessarily apply to the criminal insane asylum that is the Kremlin.

And there we have the perversity of war.  See my previous post - there is nothing good in this and as much as we would love to push the easy button and end this whole thing by next weekend…we are in the suck.  It is all bad and innocent people get to pay the price.  All war is personal…we very often forget that one.

Light mortars are great everywhere. Italians, Kriegsmarine et al. 60mm. Get them firing in direct lay, and soft targets don't last long. I don't know whether that's because of some overmodelling (though BFC have toned down HE effects generally, AIUI, for "gameplay reasons"), or whether we're just more pushy with our mortar crews than historical commanders were, so the effects are more obvious. Or maybe we're judging by kills rather than suppression (though "dead" is pretty thoroughly suppressed), and the ammo supply for MGs lets them pin targets for much longer than mortars can maintain their bombardment, even on Target Light.

I think you've hit a nail on the head, there, in the bold bit and answered your own question. Being seen to be "actively involved" is important to Kadyrov, probably both personally, and in the maintenance of the image of the  mighty warrior that helps him stay in charge in Chechnya. So he's happy to play (emphasis on play) along so long as he doesn't have to sacrifice any of the other thing that keeps him in power: the brute force of his men.

Wagner aren't really mercenaries, though. They're, or at least they were, a PMC that has a single dominant client: the Russian Government. You couldn't pay them to fight against Russians any more than you could pay Blackwater to fight against US troops.
I have a feeling that Prig is, at heart, a True Believer in the sanctity and superiority of the Rodina, and even now you won't get him or his to fight against their countrymen for another employer.

Wagner aren't really mercenaries, though. They're, or at least they were, a PMC that has a single dominant client: the Russian Government. You couldn't pay them to fight against Russians any more than you could pay Blackwater to fight against US troops.
I have a feeling that Prig is, at heart, a True Believer in the sanctity and superiority of the Rodina, and even now you won't get him or his to fight against their countrymen for another employer.

Light mortars are great everywhere. Italians, Kriegsmarine et al. 60mm. Get them firing in direct lay, and soft targets don't last long. I don't know whether that's because of some overmodelling (though BFC have toned down HE effects generally, AIUI, for "gameplay reasons"), or whether we're just more pushy with our mortar crews than historical commanders were, so the effects are more obvious. Or maybe we're judging by kills rather than suppression (though "dead" is pretty thoroughly suppressed), and the ammo supply for MGs lets them pin targets for much longer than mortars can maintain their bombardment, even on Target Light.

Does Prig's (or Utkin's) Thunder Run past Voronezh give Putin more cause/ability to undertake a further mobilisation of the general Russian populace? It's demonstrated what "could happen" if UKR break the current lines, and with the "loss" of chunks of Wagner, there's gonna be personnel holes to fill.
If there were to be a mobilisation wave, with half going straight to the front after a fortnight's Basic, and the rest getting "proper training", would that put UKR onto a tighter clock, with (slightly) stiffer headwinds? Or would it make no difference to the Summer's activities?
It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

Does Prig's (or Utkin's) Thunder Run past Voronezh give Putin more cause/ability to undertake a further mobilisation of the general Russian populace? It's demonstrated what "could happen" if UKR break the current lines, and with the "loss" of chunks of Wagner, there's gonna be personnel holes to fill.
If there were to be a mobilisation wave, with half going straight to the front after a fortnight's Basic, and the rest getting "proper training", would that put UKR onto a tighter clock, with (slightly) stiffer headwinds? Or would it make no difference to the Summer's activities?
It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

Having seized the SMO (and thus the regime) by the jugular in Rostov, it makes no sense that they send a "flying column" north, unsupported, unless they have cast-iron certainty that they won't be opposed or cut off. For me, this signals that Prig is confident he has friends in high places. Stalling them at a river crossing and blocking them from withdrawal, reinforcement or resupply shouldn't be beyond even Shoigu and Gerasimov's limited conceptual and physical resources, which seems to still include the RU air force, and definitely includes more artillery and shells than the flying column could possibly be carrying alongwith themselves. 

Those bridges would likely be dropped by the Russians as they are driven back anyway, so perhaps the UKR policy makers aren't too concerned about infrastructure surviving the liberation of the land it's built on.

Those bridges would likely be dropped by the Russians as they are driven back anyway, so perhaps the UKR policy makers aren't too concerned about infrastructure surviving the liberation of the land it's built on.

All pTruppen are lazy. If you want them to move through difficult terrain, when there is any easier option, you have to give them orders where going the hard way is easier than leaving the hard terrain, crossing the easy terrain then re-entering the difficult going. The best example of this is when you want to advance up a swampy ditch: you have to give them a waypoint every AS, in the ditch, or they'll clamber out, jog along the lip of the gully and dive back in at the end. And sometimes that won't even work. Different movement modes can sometimes make a difference, because they apply different priorities to "getting to point B". Might be an occasion to use Move instead of Quick. It might be worth some experimenting under controlled conditions so you won't be surprised once the lead starts flying.

That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?

Storm Shadow has a two stage warhead designed to bust bunkers. If it's accurate enough to hit an actual bridge pillar or the junction of a pillar and the cross member, the HE charge will go off buried in the concrete. Whether that would be enough to drop the thing, I couldn't say for sure, but "bunker buster" seems like a smaller, or at least comparable job to "bridge pillar breaker", so I'd guess it should be. If that string of assumptions is true, it's entirely possible that the aspect that would require multiple birds would be the saturation of the AD around the bridge. UKR has decoy missiles, and Storm Shadow has penaids built in, AIUI, but it's a subsonic, not particularly evasive target over flat water, so potentially a turkey shoot.
My guess is that UKR are waiting for a psychologically significant moment. Or maybe the target (or at least the critical bit that SS would have to hit) is just a bit too small for the accuracy capability of the system. You don't want to miss, or even hit but cause trivial damage; that would just be handing RUS propaganda ammo.

That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?

That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?

That sounds like an incredibly specific exercise of placing the fixed wing in the most disadvantageous situation possible vis a vis the rotary. Nobody here, for sure, has suggested that F-16s go hunting Russian attack helos with cannon. AMRAAMs by look-down radar from 50km is more the speed we're talking. Beyond Visual Range. Do Ka-52 (or any AH) have the avionics to compete in that field?

I'm a bit puzzled as to why these four things will be true. Surely the liberated areas won't be so huge relative to the already-defended lands that moving the AD and CB umbrellas forward (judiciously, once the superior CB of the UKR has whittled the Russian artillery down to local ineffectiveness) to cover the crunchies' advanced positions, will they?
Maintaining artillery superiority is another reason for a broad advance. If you generate a salient, you have to put your CB assets into the salient to be able to reach the enemy's batteries that are "in front" of the projection in your lines, which brings your long-ranged CB assets into range of shorter-ranged enemy fires to the sides of the pocket. Which is obviously suboptimal. So you need a broad, uniform front of advance, so that the enemy is always "in front" of you, not to the sides. Patton would have a fit.

I'm a bit puzzled as to why these four things will be true. Surely the liberated areas won't be so huge relative to the already-defended lands that moving the AD and CB umbrellas forward (judiciously, once the superior CB of the UKR has whittled the Russian artillery down to local ineffectiveness) to cover the crunchies' advanced positions, will they?
Maintaining artillery superiority is another reason for a broad advance. If you generate a salient, you have to put your CB assets into the salient to be able to reach the enemy's batteries that are "in front" of the projection in your lines, which brings your long-ranged CB assets into range of shorter-ranged enemy fires to the sides of the pocket. Which is obviously suboptimal. So you need a broad, uniform front of advance, so that the enemy is always "in front" of you, not to the sides. Patton would have a fit.

Storm Shadow has a two stage warhead designed to bust bunkers. If it's accurate enough to hit an actual bridge pillar or the junction of a pillar and the cross member, the HE charge will go off buried in the concrete. Whether that would be enough to drop the thing, I couldn't say for sure, but "bunker buster" seems like a smaller, or at least comparable job to "bridge pillar breaker", so I'd guess it should be. If that string of assumptions is true, it's entirely possible that the aspect that would require multiple birds would be the saturation of the AD around the bridge. UKR has decoy missiles, and Storm Shadow has penaids built in, AIUI, but it's a subsonic, not particularly evasive target over flat water, so potentially a turkey shoot.
My guess is that UKR are waiting for a psychologically significant moment. Or maybe the target (or at least the critical bit that SS would have to hit) is just a bit too small for the accuracy capability of the system. You don't want to miss, or even hit but cause trivial damage; that would just be handing RUS propaganda ammo.

Storm Shadow has a two stage warhead designed to bust bunkers. If it's accurate enough to hit an actual bridge pillar or the junction of a pillar and the cross member, the HE charge will go off buried in the concrete. Whether that would be enough to drop the thing, I couldn't say for sure, but "bunker buster" seems like a smaller, or at least comparable job to "bridge pillar breaker", so I'd guess it should be. If that string of assumptions is true, it's entirely possible that the aspect that would require multiple birds would be the saturation of the AD around the bridge. UKR has decoy missiles, and Storm Shadow has penaids built in, AIUI, but it's a subsonic, not particularly evasive target over flat water, so potentially a turkey shoot.
My guess is that UKR are waiting for a psychologically significant moment. Or maybe the target (or at least the critical bit that SS would have to hit) is just a bit too small for the accuracy capability of the system. You don't want to miss, or even hit but cause trivial damage; that would just be handing RUS propaganda ammo.

BBC article on counting Russian casualties. May be of some interest. 

BBC article on counting Russian casualties. May be of some interest.