dan/california

Ukraine, UNTIL NOW, has been plagued by weak governments that NATO didn't really trust. But Zelensky was doing his best to clean it up before the war. He obviously succeeded beyond all reason in cleaning up the military and intelligence services or we would be two weeks out from Putin's Parade in Kyiv. Post war, If Zelensky is still there and has a country to speak of, he is going to have both the political support at home, and the economic support from abroad to attempt a complete reset. He will be the second coming of George Washington, but with bottomless access to EU money, and technical expertise. It will just be a completely different  country two years from now if it exits at all.

Well from the same production house the Russo-Japanese War has to also rank up there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

No to be too off topic here but just spent the last 5 days in the hospital for some unexpected surgery. There is no news channel that covers this war like this thread does. I sure missed it and glad to be back.
Battlefront.com, your complete honest news source...😀

I am actually hoping Belarus just has a nice little rebellion instead. But if they are getting more involved wouldn't it make more sense to use their logistics to reinforce on of the current attacks? Putting more troops in the field just seems idiotic when you can't supply the ones that are already committed. Of course that would be in keeping with the rest of the planning of this war. If the troops being ordered to attack don't rebel, though, right after they are committed would be a great time for the very large opposition in Belarus to kick one off.

I went through the job description of the Australian army. It started with, the opportunity to have a degree in.......... But it would make an interesting game. 

There is a BIG difference between "blooding", and shattering utterly. Most of these Russian units are being used up to the shattered point or worse. A U.S. infantry brigade that did a couple of reasonably hot tours in Afghanistan could be considered blooded, casualties of 2 or 3 percent total over the two tours, everybody has heard enough hostile fire to react instead of panic . There is a confirmed post a few pages back of regiment that lost it ENTIRE senior leadership. The commanding Colonel, XO, several other senior people were all wiped. This was confirmed by their funeral announcements at their home base in Russia. I am going to make the entirely reasonable assumption that the brigade suffered 25 to 40% casualties for that to happen. There isn't anybody left to learn anything. The Russians just don't have the long serving NCO corps to learn anything and pass it on. Everybody in that unit who gets out of Ukraine alive is going to get out of the army as fast as they can, and get as far away from it as the can, preferably with a vodka bottle. It might as well be 100% casualties, that unit and virtually all of it personnel are militarily useless, forever.

I am actually hoping Belarus just has a nice little rebellion instead. But if they are getting more involved wouldn't it make more sense to use their logistics to reinforce on of the current attacks? Putting more troops in the field just seems idiotic when you can't supply the ones that are already committed. Of course that would be in keeping with the rest of the planning of this war. If the troops being ordered to attack don't rebel, though, right after they are committed would be a great time for the very large opposition in Belarus to kick one off.

If Belarus gets even mildly rebellious the Russians around Kiev would just be DONE. This needs to be encouraged in every possible way. Could the EU do something to help the exiled Belorussian opposition leader look more significant? Some sort of guarantee of support if Lukashenko got the boot and she was installed in the government? To reiterate this is THE fastest way to end the war with a total defeat for Putin, and should be pursued in every possible way.

I hope the confidence many of us feel vs Belarus army is not hubris -- the gods punish hubris.  So If they are staging at Gomel that is a long way from being able to cut supply lines.  They have to move a long way west and will be spotted.  Once they turn south UKR will know where they will cross the border. 
So what are they up to?  Maybe cut supply lines by attacking south to the west of Kyiv.  Maybe protect left flank of the RU western Kyiv forces.  Maybe go east of the Dnieper to try to solidify the contested areas b/w chernihiv to bovary. 
I think this could be trouble just due to shear volume of forces if they move south to the east of the Dnieper. 
If they go west and then south (to cut Polish supply chain) they'll probably get ambushed every 5 km once they cross the border -- so I am hoping they do this.  Nice long columns that need to make big advances.

Yeah but she is no random twitter gal, but People's Deputy of Ukraine.
 

I am fairly sure the Russian guy in question is well around the fascist bend, but his view of the military situations seems very close to board consensus that the Russians best scenario now is losing slow and ugly.

Belorussian military brass needs to be offered solid gold retirement packages in south America, different passports, immunity for no doubt numerous past misdeeds, the whole bit. 

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

While I can completely understand your evolved feelings about NATO, as I understand it, NATO has it’s hands are tied by it’s own charter. It cannot enter a conflict between non-NATO members. I believe that Libya was a different situation. I think that NATO was able to set up the “no-fly zone” and intercede because the Government of Libya bombed a U.S. air carrier over Scotland. That would undoubtedly have triggered an “Article V” of the NATO Charter, allowing such an action.
What really infuriates me, as a U.S. Citizen, and one whose family has lived within 15 miles of where we live now, for just shy of 400 years, is how the U.S. failed to abide by it’s 1994 agreement to protect Ukraine in 2014 by the weasel words of “well, we can’t be sure the little green men are Russian.” What really worries me is that the SAME person that handled that response is handling this invasion of Ukraine when there is no doubt of the aggressor, and STILL refuses to meet it’s obligations of the 1994 agreement. That disgusts me.

Of course. NATO is a strong guarantee that nothing bad happens to its members because that guarantee comes from nuclear countries. And the sole fact that no NATO member was ever attacked is a solid proof of that.
Plus being neighbors with a country that wants to murder all of us for the sole reason of some made-up delusions means there is no alternative to NATO that will guarantee our survival.
If we were in NATO to begin with - this war would have never happened.
And naturally being part of EU is a great thing too. Because civilization is about making money, lots of money - at least for the foreseeable future. And EU is about making money. War is bad for money. Peace is good for money. So EU found a way for its ever warring countries to peacefully co-exist and resolve all the issues through hard cash.

I know its defensive, you know its defensive, but its setup to defend against the USSR and now Russia (primarily). So Russia sees it as a threat.  Now NATO is expanding East, but its by choice not by conquest.
So theoretically, if Putin is dethroned and Russia somehow becomes a Western democracy (don't ask me how. I can't see it happening) and then joins NATO, that would effectively put an end to NATO.  It could be disbanded since there is no longer a threat.  Or NATO could stay in place and defend against Chinese aggression.  Or any other state that decides it wants to attack a NATO country.
@kraze, would you like to see Ukraine in NATO and/or the EU?  That question goes to @Haiduk also.  I know that I would.  Any other outcome to this war would do a disservice to those who have died defending it.  At the very least, Ukraine should become part of the EU.

NATO just needs to start sellingUkraine cruise missiles for a dollar each. In the air, when they cross the Ukrainian border. 

NATO just needs to start sellingUkraine cruise missiles for a dollar each. In the air, when they cross the Ukrainian border. 

NATO just needs to start sellingUkraine cruise missiles for a dollar each. In the air, when they cross the Ukrainian border. 

https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
Apparently Xi and Putin were thinking about a one two punch to put the West out of business.  The minute the Ukrainians run out of Russian vehicles to kill we need to start pumping them into Taiwan at at least same rate. Actually we need to help the Taiwanese set up their own production lines. Twenty thousand Javelins, and ten thousand stingers and the island is just not getting conqured . A bunch of the bigger vehicle mounted stuff too obviously.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
Apparently Xi and Putin were thinking about a one two punch to put the West out of business.  The minute the Ukrainians run out of Russian vehicles to kill we need to start pumping them into Taiwan at at least same rate. Actually we need to help the Taiwanese set up their own production lines. Twenty thousand Javelins, and ten thousand stingers and the island is just not getting conqured . A bunch of the bigger vehicle mounted stuff too obviously.

If there's a genuine value in Russia expending assets to prove that, I suspect that's indicative of much bigger problems.

Putin (and russians as a whole) thinks no such thing. He is perfectly aware of what NATO is. And he is perfectly aware that it's impossible to drag NATO into aggressive wars of any kind because of all the safeguards.
Furthermore russians are fully aware that no NATO country is interested in expansion because civilized world is all about trying to outrun other countries in money and money loves peace.
This all has to do with the fascist ideology of russians as a whole. Their ideology is that Russia is "a third Rome" (which is highly delusional in itself for oh so many reason), that their empire should spread to former USSR borders in the middle of Germany once again.
Likewise "Warsaw pact" was never any pact - USSR just couldn't say "this all belongs to us now" so soon after 1945 because they would look like an occupier, not unlike Nazi Germany, to the rest of the world and that's a bad idea in the aftermath of WW2. But make no mistake - all those countries were fully occupied.
So naturally NATO prevents the restoration of "former glory" (aka occupying half of Europe) and that's the only reason Russia opposes NATO. And that's why they wage wars since as early 1992, occupying parts of countries to use NATO safeguard about "countries with ongoing wars not able to join" against those countries.
And that's why they can't invade Baltic countries because those got protection.
With Ukraine it's an even more hardcore story, totally tied into faux russian greatness mythology, that was already discussed.
 

https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
Apparently Xi and Putin were thinking about a one two punch to put the West out of business.  The minute the Ukrainians run out of Russian vehicles to kill we need to start pumping them into Taiwan at at least same rate. Actually we need to help the Taiwanese set up their own production lines. Twenty thousand Javelins, and ten thousand stingers and the island is just not getting conqured . A bunch of the bigger vehicle mounted stuff too obviously.

On a lighter note... Can we have tankriders in CMBS? Oh wait! 😀