dan/california

I run out of like before i am thru my first cup of coffee, and irritated about it the rest of the day....

I think it is far more likely the drones will be a company level asset. There will be an entire platoon more or less tasked with nothing but drone operations and battle space ISR intergration. So drones will be launched and recovered by dedicated vehicles/operators at whatever schedule their technology requires. Lasers are already well long in development for shooting down drones, there have also been experiments with using lasers to POWER drones via solar cells. I  can envision the same vehicle doing both jobs. Feeding low powered lasers to the companies own drones when there aren't bad guy drones to shoot at. God help the corporal that crosses up the buttons.

I think a LOT of the problem is that the Russians have have never done realistic exercises. They can't spend hours getting the entire BTG, much less multiple BTGs, set out in their big propaganda formations. Since the Ukrainian drones/artillery are on the ball, witness the Russian unit getting the bleep shelled out of it a few posts ago, would wreck them. So they dribble in in whatever sized formation they can maintain for the length of the approach marches they are actually having to execute. Then they get shredded in detail by ATGMs and the afore mentioned excellent artillery. Then the next BTG has to drive by the burnt/burning wrecks, and ponder the the fact they have made poor life choices before it happens to them, too. Throw in mud season, and you have the most epic failure of a military operation since I don't know when.

I think a LOT of the problem is that the Russians have have never done realistic exercises. They can't spend hours getting the entire BTG, much less multiple BTGs, set out in their big propaganda formations. Since the Ukrainian drones/artillery are on the ball, witness the Russian unit getting the bleep shelled out of it a few posts ago, would wreck them. So they dribble in in whatever sized formation they can maintain for the length of the approach marches they are actually having to execute. Then they get shredded in detail by ATGMs and the afore mentioned excellent artillery. Then the next BTG has to drive by the burnt/burning wrecks, and ponder the the fact they have made poor life choices before it happens to them, too. Throw in mud season, and you have the most epic failure of a military operation since I don't know when.

Great points here.
@The_Capt is probably busy in his day job, but @Bil Hardenberger, any thoughts on this 'lack of scale' problem? where a depleted BTG or a company TG just doesn't have enough left to fulfil the concept, which I understand to be very roughly to be both the 'fingers' and the 'fist:
My tank splits the universe in two, and breaks up in pieces all that stands solid in front. The coppices fly by right and left. There are sounds of thunder inside my tank, hellish. The map is on my knees, and much becomes clear. The division has been thrown into a breakthrough and is now advancing rapidly to the West. Only the enemy's location is not clear. The map does not tell anything about it.
For that reason, two dozen units are now dashing ahead of the division, mine among them. These companies are like the spread fingers of a hand. Their task is to discover the most vulnerable spot in the enemy defenses, upon which the division commander will bring down his thousand-ton fist. The weak spot of the enemy must be sought across vast spaces, and therefore each of the forward units operates completely alone.
- Suvorov, The Aquarium

“These exercises are carried out in military formations to coordinate all types of units into a single “fist”. It is believed that artillery is the god of war, but without high-quality reconnaissance and fire cover, it can do little, ”explained Major Sergei Tikhonov, commander of the howitzer division. (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-btg.htm)

I mean I always knew russian GDP is propaganda BS just like everything else...
But I could never imagine russians are that piss poor. That's some African tribes level poverty.
Looting teeth crowns. Jesus effing Christ.

I'd lay strong odds we'll soon see (in 5 years) overwatch drones slaved to the tank targeting & acquisition systems, that will be sent up and constantly be tracking with and above the tank, providing heavily increased range of awareness both to the tank and nearby units. Probably two drones per tank - one up and watching, one down and recharging. 

Let that sink in for a while...
 
 
 

The horseshoe theory.
While I'm a long way from Left, I have lurked on NakedCapitalism.com for years, a bastion of the 'old Left' (Sanderistas) that often aired some interesting ideas. I've actually met the founder, a brilliant charming lady. But I have had to stop reading lately, sickened by the delusions on there.
Since they take it as read that the US is the Evil Empire and the root of everything bad that has happened in the world since 1776, they've joined ZeroHedge in the sewage tank cheering for Mother Russia and Grand Master P. So it seems all our friends in Ukraine are nazis, Bucha is a fake, etc. Sickening/saddening.

Sanctions hitting the population are irrelevant because russian population is irrelevant.
However sanctions making it worse for the population is a welcome collective responsibility.
Remember - the majority of russians is so poor they loot washing machines and copper wedding rings. Not being able to buy a washing machine due to sanctions means nothing when you can't afford a washing machine in the first place.
Now when you are a powerful moneybag and is forced to sit inside backwards s-hole that is Russia with the rest of serfs - perspective changes a bit.
Every single russian coup is staged by tzar's closest people. Every single time. Remember - stalin was murdered not because he lost some war (although he technically did), but because his closest servants were fed up with him mistreating them. And russians use that guy as their prime role model and an example of the most iron gripped tzar ever. Yet even he didn't die of natural causes.

The general unspoken consensus here is that waging war for occupied Donbass territories is not worth it because, since most Ukrainians have either left, deported or outright murdered by russians (if you think Bucha is bad - imagine how many mass graves there are in 8 years of occupation of those areas), leaving only mostly collaborators and the new generation of those that grew up in 8 years in a bubble of poverty and pure hatred towards Ukraine - getting those back (and at a very bloody price) will be instant trouble for years.
Since we don't have any laws in place that will somehow make them "uncitizen" (akin to Baltic States) and, even more, "uncitizen" out of a citizen (leading to instant cries of "omg they treat us like second tier people") - getting those people back means they come here with full voting rights not just for central government, but for local ones too, putting new traitors in there completely legally.

Russia has a culture of protecting the figurehead and blaming the underlings. This was particularly prevalent in Stalin's time; it was a popular sentiment among Russians that, sure things were terrible and the government was ****ing up, but it wasn't Stalin's fault. He is our golden boy and all the suffering and imperfection stems from incompetent governors, corrupt party apparatchiki, capitalist saboteurs, greedy managers and bumbling fools. If Stalin could only be omnipresent, he'd be able to correct all the systemic weaknesses.
And so, Putin is our golden boy. If only he could be the KomBat of every BTG, if only he could govern every region and city and run every office, we'd be in excellent shape. Alas, the underlings continue to fail us. That's why Girkin can talk all he wants, until he ruptures this belief with something explicit like, "Putin has failed us, a change in top leadership is needed."
Exhibit A--my grandmother lived under Stalin from birth until age 19. A few years ago, she was writing fanfiction about Putin... literally. Like the way a tween would write fanfiction about Harry Potter. The instinct to cult of personality is deep.
Communism is a hell of a drug. Tell your kids to stay away!

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511417219674161158.html
 
Trent making a great deal of sense about the railway lines in the Donbas being very important to the next phase of the war.

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.🤣

You can make at least some inferences about the Donbas and Crimea from how they voted in Ukrainian elections pre 2014. They voted heavily for pro Kremlin stooges. They voted for the corrupt idiot that was run out of town by the Maidan protest in an at least sort of fair election. So my basic assumption is that a decade of the Russian equivalent Fox news being the only thing on TV hasn't improved things.

Yes, he's "demanding" and it will be a primary condition, yes; but Putin will ignore demands. He won't give that corridor back.
My point is the land corridor will need to be taken, or cut, by force and force alone before "real" negotiations.  Then it's Putin doing the demanding and Zelensky the ignoring.
Putler only responds to and respects force, not verbal demands.

I don't want to distract the thread too much, but that is really f-ing rich.  And now he might get to stay there, forever.  And the russian state will probably take all his money while they're at it (they need the money).  That is some beautiful natural consequences if it all plays out.

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.🤣

Two U.S. heavy brigades could run the Russians out of Ukraine in three days If the fuel and ammo could keep up.

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.🤣

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.🤣

This NOT the right way to achieve a hull down position.🤣

At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.
tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like  watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs. 
Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:
Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.