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TheVulture

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  1. Upvote
    TheVulture reacted to Probus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's stay on topic guys. If you want to discuss racism do it with personal messages not forum posts please. 
  2. Upvote
    TheVulture reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have immense respect for your countryfolk and the way they managed to stand up to the Russian puppets. However, you're an, if not the exception. Look around the world and see the autocrats manipulating their populations, and realise that successful overthrow like that is very rare indeed. You paint a simplistic picture, with a broad brush and that doesn't lead anywhere good.
  3. Like
    TheVulture reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not disagreeing with the rest of your post, but youre making a big assumption here that there is a difference currently between civilian and military infrastructure in Belgorod. At the end of the day there are real physical limits, either by pipeline, plane, or truck as to how much POL can be brought into the city each day. There is only so much storage available. Throughput is a major issue on a system like this, and IMO its a mistake to assume that Russia has kept a wall between its civilian POL infrastructure and the military needs. Likely every drop of diesel being shipped into Belgorod has been tightly controlled by staff planners most of this year, probably part of last year too. A certain amount goes to the civilian market, a certain amount goes to the military. Even if we conclude that this was a storage facility for specialized products, something that say couldn't be put into a civilian car, it creates a problem. You have to now replace those destroyed stocks, you have less overall storage capacity to do so, AND if the system doesn't have enough slack to cover the (regional) imports they will have to come at the expense of everything else. Maybe the Russians are nice guys, will prioritize protecting the civilian market over the military. Or maybe a whole bunch of civilian stations are about to run dry while the army takes over the remaining capacity. 
    All this is to say that I seriously doubt that a line still exists between 'invasion fuel' and 'civilian fuel.' At this point everything is being carefully managed and balanced. Or its not, nobody is watching the store, and youre right. In which case we have yet another explanation for Russia's disastrous supply situation. 
  4. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm amazed they can say this with a straight face. How dare you resist our invasion of your country!
     
     
  5. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrainian army are now in Ivankiv, where the P-02 highway NW form Kyiv crosses the Teteriv river. So Russia appears to be completely abandoning the Kyiv axis now, not just trying to hold on with reduced forces but stop offensive action.
    Bad news for any Russians who hadn't made it back past that river line yet - they're rather cut off now. No indication so of how many (if any) are now stranded.
    (On the map, the red truck icons are from Russia withdrawing about 24 hours ago, so there's a lot here that's out of date).
    (EDIT: I see The_MonkeyKing beat me to it just above).

  6. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrainian army are now in Ivankiv, where the P-02 highway NW form Kyiv crosses the Teteriv river. So Russia appears to be completely abandoning the Kyiv axis now, not just trying to hold on with reduced forces but stop offensive action.
    Bad news for any Russians who hadn't made it back past that river line yet - they're rather cut off now. No indication so of how many (if any) are now stranded.
    (On the map, the red truck icons are from Russia withdrawing about 24 hours ago, so there's a lot here that's out of date).
    (EDIT: I see The_MonkeyKing beat me to it just above).

  7. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrainian army are now in Ivankiv, where the P-02 highway NW form Kyiv crosses the Teteriv river. So Russia appears to be completely abandoning the Kyiv axis now, not just trying to hold on with reduced forces but stop offensive action.
    Bad news for any Russians who hadn't made it back past that river line yet - they're rather cut off now. No indication so of how many (if any) are now stranded.
    (On the map, the red truck icons are from Russia withdrawing about 24 hours ago, so there's a lot here that's out of date).
    (EDIT: I see The_MonkeyKing beat me to it just above).

  8. Upvote
    TheVulture reacted to Nicdain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hi everyone, 
    I've been absent from Battlefront.com forums for a long time. When this war started I thought that a discussion on the subject was surely ongoing on BFC forum, so it's since the end of February that I am following this thread daily, even more often than TV news or social networks.
    I just wanted to thank BFC and all the people bringing forward this thread, sharing invaluable news and information on this tragic war.
    I hope that Ukrainian people regain their freedom and peace as soon as possible
    Niccolò 
  9. Like
    TheVulture reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I admit to being kind of amused at these "Russia will do this and declare a ceasefire..."
    You can't declare a unilateral ceasefire unless you are really in a dominant military position.  You can ask for one, but the other side has a say.  Ukraine will have a set of conditions for the ceasefire which they have already started establishing.  The key one being Russia recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  I don't think they will insist on Crimea beyond an internationally managed referendum there.  It will however mean the end of DPR/LNR.  I don't see Putin agreeing to that.  So the war will go on until Russia is simply unable to maintain their forces in the field either because of a military collapse or a political "transition" back in Moscow and a unilateral withdrawal.
    The cracks are appearing for Putin.  Incidents of soldiers refusing to serve in Ukraine .  Too much of the army is being committed to this with potential risk of instability elsewhere.  Too many of the various power blocs now have a reason to consider a Russia without Putin.  The cost of the war which so far he has managed to hide will become apparent.  The butchers bill will come due.  Putin is in a situation where everyday things get a little worse and he is not in a position of controlling the narrative.
  10. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from The_MonkeyKing in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suspect not - there is an Orlove in Kherson oblast, and the article is wrong. Orlove in Kherson is right next to Zagradivka and Kochubeyeka, and is almost certainly what was meant. The article says:
    "Units of the Defense Forces restored control over the settlements of Orlove (Zaporizhzhya region. - Ed.), Zagradivka, Kochubeyevka (both - Kherson. - Ed.)"
    so I assume the editorial insert was wrong.
  11. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
     A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
    Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.
  12. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
     A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
    Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.
  13. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
     A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
    Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.
  14. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
     A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
    Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.
  15. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Alpha radiation is bad for this as it isn't very penetrating, unlike gamma rays.
     A gamma ray source is equally dangerous no matter where it is - a certain flux will interact with the entire mass of your body with some degree of probability, and the rest pass through.
    Conversely alpha radiation can be stopped by a piece of paper, so if it is external, it is basically not going to get past your clothes and not really cause you a significant problem. But if you breath in dust that is an alpha source, you have the opposite problem - it is now inside you and not getting out, so all the energy from the radioactive particles gets dumped into cell damage inside your body.
  16. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Phantom Captain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If that map is accurate there's already one pocket of the Russian forces left on the M06 highway in Kopyliv and Motyzhyn, and Ukraine are trying to cut off the forces in the Vorzel / Hostomel area too.
    That's possibly a big "if" though
  17. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wait until 'snatch' đrones become a thing and swoop in in the middle of the night to grab some poor schmuck on sentry duty and carry him back to the enemy camp for interrogation. 
  18. Upvote
    TheVulture got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If that map is accurate there's already one pocket of the Russian forces left on the M06 highway in Kopyliv and Motyzhyn, and Ukraine are trying to cut off the forces in the Vorzel / Hostomel area too.
    That's possibly a big "if" though
  19. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wait until 'snatch' đrones become a thing and swoop in in the middle of the night to grab some poor schmuck on sentry duty and carry him back to the enemy camp for interrogation. 
  20. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Desertor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wait until 'snatch' đrones become a thing and swoop in in the middle of the night to grab some poor schmuck on sentry duty and carry him back to the enemy camp for interrogation. 
  21. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Comparing a still of the round from the video with an actual NLAW rocket, it certainly looks the same

  22. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  23. Like
    TheVulture got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian column moving out of Kherson west towards the Mikolaiv direction this morning (although it looks like they are going up the T1501 coastal road rather than the direct M14 highway):
     

  24. Like
    TheVulture reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    deleted, someone pointed out it was silly and they were correct
  25. Upvote
    TheVulture reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
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