Nicdain

Some of the conversation over the few pages have referenced the former Yugoslavia.  Which brings back... well, not so good memories.
I was a Canadian peacekeeper in Bosnia in latter half of '93.   During the Croatian offensive in the Medak in Sept of '93, I was with the 2 PPCLI when we went into the sh*tstorm to try to stop the ethnic cleansing going on.  The Croatian army attacked our unit during that operation, a thing that the Croatian government denies to this very day.  Despite us photographing the Croatian dead after the battle and collecting their ID, etc.    We had god damn evidence and to this day, the Croatian government position is that they never attacked us.
Part of our job, beside trying to keep the warring factions apart, was to document evidence of ethnic cleansing and I was in charge (I was an officer) of a evidence collection team.  So, literally thousands of photos, videos.  Transcripts of interviews with witnesses and victims.  Six months exposed to that living hell, day after f*n day....
So I had the evidence, because sometimes our official recording devices ran out film or tape and we used our personal recording devices to finish up at a site.
After I got out the military, I found myself sometimes on various military forms about games, such as this one.  Arma forums, military wargame forums... that sort of thing.  And as it happened, I ran into forum members from Croatia and Bosnia Serbs and we would get into it.
Universally, every Croatian or Bosnian Serb forum poster denied what happened there.  And I was called a liar on many occasions for telling them them the truth of that war as I was there and they weren't.  And I have evidence to back up my claims.  No one believed me and if I offered visual proof, they didn't want to see it or they disclaimed it as fake.
I remember a particular Bosnian Serb who was not in the war but we got deep into the weeds discussing what happened during that war.  Deny, deny, deny.  It never happened.  Until videos that the Bosnian Serbs took of them killing civilians and dumping them in mass graves what was recorded by the very soldiers who committed the atrocities surfaced and made it onto their local media and they couldn't deny it any longer.  Those videos were part of the process besides sanctions that resulted in some notable Bosnia Serb / Serbian leaders being turned over to the ICC for prosecution for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.  After the revelation came out, this individual on that forum who I had spent hours engaging with about the culpability of Serbs in the atrocities simply ignored me from that point onwards.  I will never know why.... was it that he discovered that I was right all a long and he was wrong and he was ashamed (as he would have been) or he simply wanted to hang onto his delusion of what narrative he wanted to believe was true and he knew that I would keep chipping away.   
Denial is a powerful thing.   I don't understand why it has such power but it does.  People can dismiss an outright objective reality because to accept the truth is to undermine what they think reality is or should be.   I don't get it and is beyond madding to see the denials in the face of objective reality happen over and over.
Sigh.   I don't know why the hell I rambled on with this.  Maybe it was a story I need to tell to remain sane in light of the same brutality I witnessed back in Bosnia happening in Ukraine now.  Or maybe I still am the greater fool for believing my experiences in Bosnia can be an object lesson to others about holding onto a narrative that is personally comfortable but runs counter to all the real evidence to the contrary.   DMS, I am looking at you....
The truth will come out after all this is over.  At least, I hope it does.  The truth of this war needs to be told and codified so generations that follow can know what really happend.
Now at the end of this and reviewing it, I feel that I should have deleted this or apologize for it.  
I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.   
 
 

Can't find the meme picture now, but the idea was roughly
(Russia, knocking on door) "Let me in"
(Finland) "Why?"
(Russia) "I'm going to protect you"
(Finland) "Protect me from what?"
(Russia) "From what I'm going to do to you if you don't let me in"

I get the OPs point, we do need to be mindful of propaganda from all corners of this thing.  However, the facts and evidence are stacking so high at this point that it has changed the character of this war.
War crimes always happen in war, true.  But the frequency and intensity are a direct reflection of the fighting force perpetrating them, who are in turn a direct reflection of the society that produced, sent and supports those same soldiers.  Generally one can accept “anomalies” of abhorrent behaviour, but when it takes on a frequency and pattern of systemic organization, it crosses a larger line that speaks to the qualities of the culture that allowed this to happen - I have in-laws who are German, and they live with this even today based on WW2, these are stains that do not wash easily.
So what about this war?  Well it has become a stain on the Russian people.  You allowed this to happen, either by supporting the current government, or not doing anything to stop them.  This one is on you, each and everyone - of at least voting age and functioning mental faculty.  You can cry “lies” and persecution but you have earned every one of those as well.  Worse, your children, who do not have a voice in this, will live with this for generations.  It is costing a lot more than world opinion, as we have discussed at length and will continue to cost for years.
To the OP my advice is to not waste your time at a small niche wargaming site trying to defend what has become undefendable.  My advice is to resist this from without or within any way that you can.  And I mean resist the Russian government and work towards its downfall because it needs to fall.  You may not succeed but at least you will be able to look in the mirror and know you did what you could to preserve any shred of Russian dignity.
These types of wars can break nations, those attacked and those attacking.  I strongly suggest you spend your energies elsewhere in order to try and preserve what you have left as a nation.
 

In the days preceding February 24, they perjured that they would not carry out any invasion of Ukraine ... how can we trust russian statements?

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.
I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.
This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.
As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.
  

Standard play is "somebody else's kids" so they will milk that cow until it bleats (already have).
As to 100k or even 200k.  In the west it takes us about 1-2 years to create a functioning basic infantry person.  That is basic and battle school, even our reserves here in Canada take at least a year.  These are totally inexperienced with no heavy weapons training, minimum fieldcraft and just enough skill not to shoot themselves or each other too often.  
But this rabble do not make a tactical unit.  You need NCOs, Officers, technical specialist etc.  A recce troop takes 3-5 years to make, a good NCO 5-10, a junior officer (if one waives a degree requirement) 2-3 years - more if they are in a technical trade. 
So yes, if they want kids standing in trenches holding a rifle they could technically "mobilize".  But they will not hold ground under pressure and forget anything complex like offense.  I mean if you want third world quality, sure Russia can mobilize but they will get crushed in days.  The UA is producing veterans at an alarming rate, to the point I would be concerned about taking them on with a western military right now.  They are on their home soil so no worries about motivation, and they are being equipped with some of the best weapon systems in human history.  But I am sure Russia will stick an 18 year old with strange holes and stains on his uniform, in a different country, no real support and an AK with one mag and call it a "Wall of Steel".   

Now that is another conversation.  My thoughts are that this long a frontage is too long for the Russian forces, and they are likely to try and hand the defence off to as many contractors, DNR/LPR conscripts and Arabs as quickly as possible so that they can show the "Russian boys coming home".  So it will be a porous and brittle lines without integrated ISR or fires, its LOCs will be exposed and fragile as C-UAV is just not in the cards for Russia right now.
So my guess is that UA forces will still employ a hybrid approach but it will be to infiltrate, isolate and then destroy at key seams in the Russian defence, all the while hammering LOCs and logistics with deep strike capability. [aside: if the UA gets PSM HIMARS Ukraine could hit Moscow from its NE border...crazy].
Russian defence will buckle and then break as they slowly get chewed up but at this point Ukrainian political has to think about drawing Russian back in and trying to re-build, all the while keeping the good will of the West.  More likely, if I were on the Ukrainian staff I would advise to wait, build up and let the sanctions do their work while putting every single war crime investigation back on the front pages of western media.  Let a movie or two be made, starring Jeremy Remer - "Hells Factory - Mariupol" and then as Russia gets weaker and the UA becomes the best armed military in Europe, then I would go for the big wins and take it all back in 48 months.  When Russia, with a newly established government, is begging Ukraine not to attack across the border and the West is willing to pay them not to do it, that is what winning looks like militarily.   

You are wrong. He does (or at least did) have a plan for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
Problem is, since russians are very much infected with their discount version of nazism - that plan was based on absolute delusions.
putin did grow up in a culture where he was told that only russians are the exceptional ones and Europe are just lackeys of the USA and thus are useless fools who are nothing compared to the Glorious Soviet Union and its titular nation.
So to him EU was both full of seemingly weak countries with the two most powerful ones, France and Germany, being completely on his side - so why not start a little victorious war against even weaker untermenschen, which will be over in 3 days? I mean when an unnamed EU politician (probably bald and German) told Zelenskyy "what sanctions? It will be over in a few hours" - can you blame putin for fooling himself?

I am an expert on military operations and this war makes very little sense in both purpose and execution.

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.
Re-draw the lines on the map and declare the DNR/LNR as "free", point to this strategic land bridge as a major victory and come up with some BS narrative that "this was the plan all along".  I also suspect that the Russian higher-ups already know this hence the somewhat tepid start to this whole thing.
I don't think Putin is in a corner on this, he is just trying to figure out where to paint the arbitrary line of "victory".  This has been a failing on the western analysis side from Day 1, we continue to see this war through our own lens.  What this operation should look like in western frameworks must be what Russia is doing - big sweeps, dramatic deep operations.  What victory looks like, again in western terms, and projecting it on the Russians. 
I am getting the sinking sense that all Putin needed to do was get into Ukraine and shoot up the place, and he could spin it as the greatest victory since the Great Patriotic War.
    

Some frontline news:
Mariupol. After a time of next ultimatum has gone Russians hammered Azovstal with FAB-3000 from Tu-22M3 and heavy artillery (maybe 2S4 240 mm siege mortars too). Azov command made a statement the plant territory almost all ruined, they try to take out survived people, dead and wounded from ruins. Russians at this moment don't advance forward. About 1000 civilaians hide in plant undergrounds   
Zaporizhzhia axix: Russians throughout the day desparately attacked our troops in Huliaypole area to establish better conditions to the entering in the battle rest of forces, but hadn't sucess.
Velyka Novosilka axis (JTO south): Russians decided outflank our troops west from this settlement and to breakthrough between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. They advanced from Liubymivka to the line of ponds and the dam near Temyrivka village
JTO: Russians could take Maryinka under own control, but our forces after regrouping counter-atatcked and retaken the settlement. In Rubizhne all attempts of enemy to move further where repelled. Now Russians and separs control about half of the city. Calshes around Kreminna.
Kherson oblast: Russians launched attack on the north of Kherson oblast to take back positions, lost in previuous weeks, but hadn't success
Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.     

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is squaring  off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  
So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:
On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"



These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:
 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:
These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 
Ok so what? 
- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 
- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 
- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  
- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.
- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.
- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 
Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.
#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.
This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 
Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

Just the name of the sunk ship ist mad re PR value it brings. They should'be renamed it before the war, like Germans did with the Deutschland. It just sound horrible when ship named after your capital sinks.

LOL!
 
 

OK, one more meme, then I'll shut up. It was a nice looking ship though.
 

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

Couldn't resist reposting this one.... 😆

You take your pleasures rather sadly, brother, do you not?
....That said, this is a splendid and low-cost victory for the Ukrainian Republic. Far more important than the military victory IMHO, it is a mortal symbolic blow to Russia's self-delusion.
The grieving mothers should of course look to Putin, to Russia's leadership, and to the broken civilization they have now burnt to the waterline. The resource curse which lets brutish village thugs rake in billions while the young people vote with their feet or drink themselves insensible.
Go, Putin! Leave. There is nothing for you, no victory to salvage, no dignity, no revenge. March out. Walk out. Crawl! But, in the name of God, go! No one will invade you. Nobody cares. Then, put a pistol to your head, and leave salvaging the wreck of your country to a committee of smaller, more cautious people. Out! Out!
 

Yes, I like to call it the old "hey, look over here!" trick. 😄
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