DavidFields

Ukraine may be slow rolling Kherson just to kill as many Russians, and as much Russian artillery, as possible. As long as the Russians are stupid enough to feed meat to grinder AFU just cheerfully stands there and turns the handle.

Like us all, I've been pondering the 'death of tanks' idea, and I can't help thinking that the entire premise of the question is wrong.
On 20 Nov 1917 the British lost 50% of the almost 500 tanks employed At dawn on 8 Aug 1918 the British had almost 600 tanks, but by the 12th that was down to just six (6)! 99% casualties, in 4 days. In late 1939 the Germans lost around 10% of their tanks in a campaign lasting just over a month In mid 1940 the Germans lost 33% of their tanks in a campaign lasting just on 6 weeks. In 1967 the Israelis lost 50% of their tanks in just six days In 1973 the Israelis lost 25% of their tanks in a war lasting 19 days And yet, every one of those battles and campaigns were considered wildly successful.
Tanks have always been vulnerable. They are protected, far more than the PBI wandering around in just a cotton shirt, but that isn't a free pass away from the realities of high-intensity peer-level warfare. The question is - or should be - whether they are effective, and whether they bring capabilities that can't otherwise be realised. The answer to that was, and still is, yes.

So in addition to Russia Sucks™ we may now layer in Ukraine Rocks™. 

I think the summary of your lengthy and interesting posts on this is that both are a too-low-resolution way of examining actions and predicting outcomes.  Sloppy use of these now-tropes - in real life, not here - gets people killed without cause.
Both phrases should be consigned to the bin except when reacting to video of things blowing up.
What's really interesting is the collision - parts of it look like adaptive rock-paper-scissors, with one side adapting much more quickly.
 
Pay no attention to the heathens.  Keep providing the warning, it is both informative (a bit) and fun - part of your personal brand

Let’s nip in the bud partisan sniping about the President, and be glad we have Administration that has been at least reasonably competent in handling the tightrope of supporting Ukraine and managing relations within NATO in this war. While not making us all into glow in the dark Halloween skeleton decorations lighting up a desolate nuclear winter.
(Although it isn’t over yet, Jack!)

That's something Dan Carlin (historical podcaster) had mentioned several times: other people may have copied the concept of the Greek hoplite or the Roman legion, but without the whole apparatus of the culture, mindset and society that created them, you don't actually have a hoplite or legion and it doesn't function the same way. You just have something that looks similar on the surface.
And likewise the western military system is something that the west evolved as an effective way for people from western cultures to fight. It isn't automatically going to work the same way if you just copy it and plug in people with different culture, social norms and attitudes.

I was born and grew up in former Yugoslavia (not Serbian) which does make me quite partial to Ukrainians. I checked with my former coworkers of Ukranian origins and they fully endorse the following:
https://www.patreon.com/uaexplainers
21 HOURS AGO
9 things people still don’t get about Ukraine
Thoughts from a bunch of stubborn Ukrainians after eight months of the invasion. Feel free to share this with people who still find it hard to understand why Ukrainians think or act in certain ways.
1. Ukraine will never surrender.
This is an existential war for Ukrainians. If we stop fighting, our homes will be turned into rubble, our children will be taken away, and our people will face mass terror. Every place that experienced Russian occupation in Ukraine has a similar story to tell: a story of mass graves, torture chambers, filtration camps, and forced deportations.
All that means that Ukrainians are prepared to fight no matter how long it takes – because they are fighting for survival. Nobody “makes” Ukrainians fight – not the government and most certainly not the Western arms. With or without military or political support from the democratic world, Ukraine will keep on resisting – because we are fighting for our right to exist.
For us, the reality of perpetual military resistance is more acceptable than the reality of the Russian occupation.
2. None of us is okay – even if we say we are.
In the first weeks following the February 24 invasion, Ukrainians were in a state of shock and terror. The shock passed, but the collective trauma never started to heal. Every day people across Ukraine keep dying from Russian shelling. Every week new stories of horror of Russia’s genocidal campaign emerge. Each week brings a new little catastrophe – and every week a little part of us quietly dies inside.
This has become the new norm Ukrainians are learning to navigate. So, when you ask a Ukrainian friend or colleague whether they’re okay, keep in mind that this question has lost its meaning to most of us. We are not okay and we don’t know if we’ll ever be okay again.
But we keep holding on. In a way, trying to be okay as Ukrainians is the final act of resistance against Russia’s attempt to wipe out everything that is Ukraine.
3. Ukraine is fighting against Russian colonialism, not just Putin.
Putin may have pulled the trigger, but the root of the invasion lies deeper than the current regime in Russia. For centuries, Russia has led colonial conquests from Eastern Europe to the Pacific Far East. It conquered and assimilated multiple indigenous peoples – and exterminated those who resisted.
Russian colonialism remained largely under the radar this whole time, and its crimes are much less studied. As a result, the Russian imperial worldview has remained unchecked and unchallenged – and has expressed itself in multiple invasions since 1991: Transnistria, Ichkeria, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.
The war might be paused when Putin’s regime implodes, but Ukrainians know all too well that a lasting peace is only possible with a decolonized and disarmed Russia that rethinks its past and future.
Until then, the untamed beast of Russian colonialism will seek to continue its imperial conquest in Ukraine and elsewhere.
4. Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not “more Russian.”
Yes, most Ukrainians are bilingual. Yes, 26% of Ukrainians are Russian-first speakers and 27% speak an equal amount of Russian and Ukrainian in their daily lives. But do you know why?
While some foreigners still believe that it has mostly to do with ethnicity and political ideology, the widespread use of the Russian language in Ukraine is mostly the result of centuries-old Russification policy.
Since the 19th century, Ukrainians were deliberately banned from using their language in education, labor, and public spheres of life. The Russification process prevailed throughout Soviet rule. As a result, millions of Ukrainians switched to Russian and deliberately hid their Ukrainian traces. And Ukraine learned to exist successfully as a nation of bilinguals.
So, if you meet Ukrainians who speak Russian in their daily lives, do not assume they are “more Russian” than any other Ukrainian or that they support Russia in any way. They probably have a more interesting story to tell about language and identity – just ask them.
5. Ukraine never had a Nazi problem.
Not only Nazis in Ukraine had nothing to do with Russia’s invasion, but the entire notion of Ukraine being run by the far-right is and always has been ridiculous.
The story of a “dangerous Nazi regime in Kyiv” has always been nothing more than a Russian propaganda myth. The idea of “Banderites” running amok was first voiced on Russian state TV when Ukrainians went to the streets to protest against a corrupt dictatorship in 2013. As Russia invaded and destabilized parts of Ukraine in 2014, it kept weaponizing and feeding the Nazi myth thus justifying its involvement and legitimizing the occupation.
Ukraine’s far-right movements have always been marginal and never had more than 5% of public support combined. Unlike many European states that do have a problem with far-right populism or Russia – a country running on aggressive fascist ethnonationalism for decades – Ukraine never really had a Nazi problem.
There is nothing humane or intellectual in trying to justify a brutal genocidal campaign by parroting propaganda claims crafted by the Kremlin. At this point, anyone trying to counterbalance Russian war crimes by appealing to the “Nazis in Ukraine” narrative is either a paid Russian shill or just a useful idiot. There is no point talking to these people anymore – we just need to stop providing them with a platform for spreading fascist propaganda.
6. Ukraine is a democracy. Zelensky acts as our representative.
Ukraine is not perfect. The issues with social trust, corruption, and poor state management have persisted for decades and hurt our country in various ways. But Ukrainians always fought back whenever authoritarianism loomed over: they protested in 2004 after a rigged election, and overthrew a corrupt wannabe dictator in 2014.
And yes, Ukraine still has a lot to improve – which would have been a lot easier if we didn’t have to constantly defend ourselves from Russia’s territorial aggression since 2014. But despite an external threat, Ukraine remained devoted to democratic values and reforms.
Not many people understand that Zelensky – a President who received 73% of the public’s vote in 2019 – always speaks and acts on behalf of the Ukrainian people. Following the full-scale invasion, Zelensky’s actions received praise and support from 91% of Ukrainians.
There has never been such a clear connection between the President and the people in Ukraine – and there are probably not a lot of examples of such political unity in modern-day democracies. All notions of Zelensky forcing anything onto Ukrainians are completely out of touch with reality.
7. We will not shut up. Not anymore.
For too long, the Ukrainian perspectives were silenced by Russia and pro-Russian sentiments around the globe. Like many other nations colonized by Russia, Ukraine had to shut up and, at best, politely debate whatever Russians had to say.
This colonial legacy has stayed long after 1991. Ukrainians were consistently denied agency: their pro-EU and pro-NATO choices were explained through conspiracies about the “US and NATO aggressive expansion.” Discussions about Ukraine often happened without Ukrainians themselves but with well-established carriers of the Russian colonial views on Ukraine.
All of this must remain in the past. We will not shut up and listen to another round of Russian imperial bull****, casual tone-deaf Westsplaining, or another Russian state-sponsored gaslighting campaign.
As the genocide against our people continues, we will remain unapologetically Ukrainian – and we will make sure our voices are loud and clear from now on.
8. Yes, we think all Russians are responsible for the war.
Ukrainians do not blame just Putin or the elites for the war – we blame the entire Russian nation. Putin and his cronies do not personally launch high-precision missiles at residential buildings. They don’t torture and mutilate civilians living under occupation. They don’t take away Ukrainian children and don’t try to “re-educate” them. They don’t loot, rape, and murder us. They don’t attack Ukrainians abroad or online. Ordinary Russians do all those things. All while the rest of them are silently and passively going along with the genocide for 8 months – or running away from their country and responsibility.
Those who fight against Putin’s regime carry the burden of responsibility as well. Even if they tried to make it right – they failed, and that’s just a fact. They failed as a state, as a society, and now millions of Ukrainians are suffering from genocide because of this ongoing collective failure.
Until Russians recognize and own this political responsibility, there is nothing for us to talk about. Ukrainians have the right to a safe space without Russians – without their point of view, narratives, or offers to help. And there’s nothing hateful about that. It’s a matter of personal safety and healing trauma.
Keep in mind that, unlike most people around the world, Ukrainians have lived close to Russians for centuries. We speak and understand their language – and we can follow their conversations on social media and in real life. We know how xenophobic, chauvinistic, and cynical the average Russians are. And we perfectly realize how their imperial attitudes have made this war possible in the first place.
9. Ukrainians are afraid of what comes next. But we won’t surrender to our fears.
Some people think that Ukraine’s stubbornness may lead to a full-blown world war or a nuclear catastrophe. What these people fail to understand is that Ukrainians want peace more than anyone in the world. It’s our homes getting pillaged. It’s our children being murdered.
The only country that tries to occupy a sovereign state all while blackmailing the rest of the world with nuclear catastrophe is Russia. Like it or not, the genie is out of the box – Russia is already a fascist dictatorship on nukes that invades its neighbors. It is already a threat to global security – and this has nothing to do with the way Ukraine resists. The entire notion that Ukraine can “escalate” the war by defending itself from an invasion within its internationally recognized borders is just absurd victim-blaming.
Ukrainians are afraid every night as we go to sleep and every morning while reading news of more death and destruction. But if we let our fears consume us, Russia will most likely win, and its illegal invasion, genocide, and nuclear blackmail will be rewarded. And this outcome is exactly what leads to another world war.
As Dmytro Kuleba recently said on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, “It’s absolutely normal not to have fear, yet to be afraid.” And that is exactly how it feels to be Ukrainian these eight months.

Thanks for the link.  Good article.  It lays out the time-line of the major events and some of the thoughts/reasons things were done or not done at a given time.  Below are just a few selected parts from the article. 
 
Zaluzhnyi told Milley that Ukraine had almost no fighter jets left. Milley insisted that Ukraine still had plenty. The two did not speak for more than a week. 
 
the assessment was also that, in the end, Putin could be deterred. A senior U.S. intelligence official said, “It’s not like he wants World War Three, either.”
 
Reznikov is certain that such deliveries are inevitable. “When I was in D.C. in November, before the invasion, and asked for Stingers, they told me it was impossible,” he said. “Now it’s possible. When I asked for 155-millimetre guns, the answer was no. himars, no. harm, no. Now all of that is a yes.” He added, “Therefore, I’m certain that tomorrow there will be tanks and atacms and F-16s.”
 

Indeed.  Those are the maintenance logs from the aircraft repair depot in Belgorod and a key indicator of Russian equipment management.

Except the one in CMBS has much lower dispersion 😗

The reason Russia is evacuating civilians. I doubt it is because of humanitarian responsibilities. I think more to do they don't want their positions in Kherson revealed. 

I don't believe US aid will just evaporate. It will be *deeply* unpopular in the US to cut off aid and the pressure on the House to come through will be intense. But there will be a much bumpier ride in the next two years if Biden has to bargain with McCarthy than right now where McConnell and Pelosi push the Ukraine bills straight through.

interesting considering the recent dressing down of Putin by the president of Tajikistan.
Putin Confronted by Frustrated Tajik President Demanding Respect: Video (msn.com)
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63255617
 
I'm guessing that means that they've basically run out of missiles that they're prepared to use up for now.

A good comparison is the German V weapon campaign in 1944-1945.  A ton of effort and cash expended to achieve a physical effect on the targets that was comparable or less than conventional bombing during the Battle of Britain.  The value of the campaign to the Nazi regime was to reinforce a myth of superiority and to reassure the populace that the enemy could be struck despite the grim battlefield situation.

As telling, after they chat with the female factory worker, there is no Western handshake / grip-and-grin / thank you for your hard work, the people inspecting just turn their backs on her and carry on talking.  Culture.  And the guy operating the high-tech laser cutter isn't wearing safety glasses 🙄 in spite of sparks flying.  

Ok team, what is your take on this. 
 
I was listening to the "The Daily" podcast of today, under the headline "A Bridge, a Bomb and Putin's revenge" from the New York Times. Normally I only listen to them for US internal political issues, but I made an exception. When the 10th of October retaliatory attacks were discussed, there was some gnashing of teeth and doomsday talk about the potential impact on the Ukrainian moral. Not overly much, but well in line with many of the ill-informed and nervous ”maybe we should try for peace instead crowd”. That made me think… What actually did happen on the 10th, and how bad was it really?
 
Sure Lives were lost, people were most probably crippled and definitely traumatized for life – Horrible injury incurred.
But was it a majestic reaction from the war gods of the east, taking their toll for the Ukrainian insolence of bombing the Crimean bridge?
 
I made a rough calculation:
  
83 missiles (Kh 101, Kh 555, Kalibr, Iskander, S-300 and Torndo S) were supposedly used, as well as 17 Shahid UAV. 
The average warhead size of these weapons is 324 kg, for a total mass of 32 400 kg.
Out of these, 43 were reportedly shot down, reducing the mass delivered by 13 932 kg
For a total of 18 468 kg
As I understand it, that is the equivalent of the bomb load of three (3) A-10 warthogs – if you consider that bombs probably weigh more than missile warheads.
3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Is that a massive response to a strategic attack on the jugular of the southern front? 
3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Will even the sustained attack of such a force do anything to dent the moral/cohesion/effectiveness/capacity of the Ukrainian nation?
On both account, I think not. Especially since the best of russian missile technology seem to be less accurate than even dumb bombs dropped by an A-10.

Furthermore, I saw somewhere that the total shelf cost for the 10 October attack was 350 million $. Is that money well spent? 

All things considered, Putin certainly managed to catch the headlines… Putting the perceived russian military might back on the agenda. But almost completely unjustified, it seems to me…
 
So, what are your thoughts, have I misunderstood this? Should Putin's gestures have anyone really shaking in their boots?

But where are the  Armatas !!! 🙂

That is an insane level of crazy, but seems to be in step with the online nonsense coming from that side. These idiots don't realize they're making it quite clear there isn't any moral ambiguity in this fight - and they're on the wrong side.

My opinion of Russian competence is a low as anyone's, but even they seem to understand that 155 range to Nova Khahovka is the only thing that really matters. Their current defensive line appears to have been selected with this exact factor in mind. As soon as they get pushed from any major portion of it, and standard 155 shells start raining on Nova Khahovka the Russian position in the northern part of the pocket is untenable. They will be South of the Inhulets in days. Any defenses around Nova Khahovka proper are pure copium.
Musk was not born in the U.S. and therefore cannot be President. I doubt there is any other political job he wants.

Yeah, given the brilliance and moxie the Ukrainians have shown, I have no trouble imagining them founding a thriving electric vehicle and commercial space industry, and then happily putting Elon out of business.
Living well is the best revenge.

 

silly boy, rich people don't pay taxes..   😎

but you have national health care... oh my god what have I done?!!!!  Sorry Elvis!!!

In spirit of transparency please let us know whether you or any of your elderly family members are on medicare & social security and whether you'd be cool w us turning off that gigantic pile of evil government-run socialist tyranny.  

Such confusion is deeply satisfying. 

They don't blow up the ammo dumps, they don't disable their abandoned vehicles, they don't bother coordinating withdrawals, they don't blow up equipment that would give Ukraine big advantages, their camps look like **** most of the time, I find it entirely reasonable they forgot a box of gold teeth in their haste to run. 
They don't even deny their actions are horrid, some of the crimes have as evidence social media postings from the accused.