Sarjen

Don’t know if it’s true, but if fighter jets are coming after the counter offensive than the Ukrainians are dying for nothing. 
 
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-not-receive-fighter-jets-061255539.html
 

The helos need to be destroyed on the ground.  And the west has pissed around for so damn long on getting UKR enough long range weaponry that now UKR soldiers are dying entirely avoidable deaths.  Goddammitt.  Just infuriating.  Just think what a strike by multiple long range cluster munitions would do to those choppers. 

Author of video Valeriy Markus, he is not squad leader, he is in a rank of master-sergeant and he is chief sergeant of 47th brigade. Very ineteresting video, alas, only UKR subs. 
Some episodes - Markus detained Russian POW. He is convicted. Enlisted from correctional facility in May 2023. Nobody ask their agreement, they just were sent "to dig trenches". They dug trenches near Vasylivka, then were deployed near Tokmak. This guy told "alot of armor and Grads" around Tokmak in fields. To this place, where he was captured they were moved five days ago. He had AK-12 rifle. Markus says to him "nobody will risk to evacuate you now, so the only way for you to survive is that we must kill all your friends in next tree-line. This is a war" 
In trench Markus is planning tactiacal actions - he ordered to put two MGs on flanks and wants that artillery conduct short, but concentrated and intensive strike on enemy position, then assault group with fast attack wil burst into tranches
In the night, Markus again plans next assault. He say there need two pairs, which have to silently crawl along tree-line, where Russian trenches and to throw grenades there, when other group will attack from other side. He says he will in this "grenadier group" and ask who are ready to go with him. One soldier answered, that nobody of them didn't do these things, so Markus says "If we don't take in dare rush this positions, we will must withdraw, because enemy artillery will smash us here"
Looks like he has found volunteers, we are hearing sounds of explosions in the night and next cadre is a group of Markus after the rest in seized trenches. This is about Markus meant in short video where they are slept on corpses of Russians (and this turned out not a joke). Next Markus again plans mopping up the tree-line with two groups, which have to crawl along the plant and seek a trail, leading inside the tree-line, He ordered the sapper to move first and he checks the way in tree-plant with a probe tool. Next by radio we are hearing Russians withdrew to blindage and shooting is starting.
Next cadres - UKR soldiers comletely captured enemy positions. They say Kadyrov troops were here, but on my opinion there was just regular troops of 42nd division, which mainly consists of Chechens.     

The idea of dropping munitions from planes to clear minefields was always a nonstarter in the past, for a number of reasons. As a new combat engineer private in the US army I remember watching a video (VHS I think) of Iraqi positions before deploying and the DoD wanted recommendations on how to breach them. Afterward I told the lieutenant we should just do a B-52 strike to clear a path. He didn't respond. The airstrikes were always too inaccurate and the ground could be impassible to vehicles.
There are two different ideas here that should be clarified: breaching a minefield and clearing a minefield. Frankly both are scary.
The explosives in mines is very stable, and the fuse is the key to setting it off. (when fatigued and stupid we would toss explosives around in really unsafe ways, but here I still am) So to actually clear a mine explosive needs to be placed directly on/next to it or it needs to be physically removed. Both of these require the mine to have been discovered by the persons doing the clearing. And then you have to be in the minefield doing stuff like, pop and drops, ring mains and line mains.
To breach the minefield the mines simply need to be moved out of the way. This is where MICLICs and bangalore torpedoes come in, vehicles with plows, and maybe airstrikes if they can be precise and not destroy the ground rendering movement impossible. They are expected to blow the mines out of the way, and if they detonate them that's good. But not expected. So napalm could work if it was hot enough to ignite the fuses. Otherwise it would be very poor as it would not push the mines out of the way.
I appreciate these discussions about the more modern state of mines and mine clearing, especially drones. My heart breaks to see the density of the minefields that are being laid. This will takes many years to clear and the cost to the locals will likely be extraordinary. Perhaps more and better automated mine clearing is the key, I feel like we have neglected this like many things as we thought these wars were a thing of the past.

It is one of the great shortfalls within the west - articulation of strategic ends.  I think when Ukraine wins or at least the final lines are drawn a true test of western unity will occur.  In my opinion as a min:
- Russian conventional forces must be pushed back out of Ukraine.  Russia needs to hold its sh#t together however it can post-war and we have to be ready to shape that if required.
- where the final lines are actually drawn should be an internal matter for Ukraine to sort out; however, a democratic process must be employed and some international support/oversight will likely be required.
- Russia must agree to regime change, war crimes prosecution and reparations before normalization with the west can occur.  This may not happen for a very long time given political realities in Russia, so buckle in we are likely in for a long haul.
- Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed.  Not some squishy Russian promises or weasely UN type of thing.  We are talking NATO for formal collective defence binding treaties.
- Ukraine must be rebuilt, they did the bleeding to blunt (and maybe break) Russia, western reconstruction in that country must be historic. Rebuilding also means economic agreements and long term sustainability.
- Russia must be 1) contained through strong military, diplomatic and economic deterrence, and 2) made more China’s problem than ours (so should North Korea for that matter. China wants to be a big boy, it needs to take responsibility and accountability for its power pole (lord knows the US has been wearing theirs for decades).
- The West needs to recognize the world that we are in, not the one we want.  Stop in-fighting and petty bickering, and defend the bloody international order like we mean it.  
Will we get all of these?  Seriously doubt it.  Should we be shooting for them, yes.
 

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)
[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:
Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us] The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us] Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us] Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us] RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us] Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us] AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us] AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us] RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us] RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us] Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us] Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us] The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us] Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

I used CMO last night and came to the same conclusion. I never got around to posting since this thread moves at light speed. Thanks for posting in detail. I think this is a finding that we just have place in the back of our minds for now. Send me PM, I would enjoy looking at your CMO sandbox. There are a lot factors in play. But they are easy to adjust with that software. BTW, did you give the Ka-62 ground targets to engage? 

As a Wargamer, one of the greatest joy we have is using various tools (even if they are amateur and used for entertainment purposes) to check if our crazy ideas are feasible. Here, we have a set of tools called CMO. I have created a few scenarios in the editor. Overall, I agree with your perspective that using an F-16 fighter jet to attack a low-flying Ka-52 helicopter within Russian-controlled territory is not an efficient approach.
 
In the scenario, I assumed that Ukraine is using the F-16A MLU donated by the Netherlands, while the Russian military has a Ka-52 helicopter hovering at a low altitude 10 kilometers behind their first defensive line. The F-16's radar can generally detect the Ka-52 at a range of 16nm. If the F-16 is at high altitude, there is only one opportunity for an attack because the Ka-52 will quickly enter the radar's blind zone. If the F-16 decides to dive into low altitude or initiates the attack from low altitude, it must consider the threat from short-range air defenses. However, considering the threat posed by the Russian S-300 system, a low-level penetration might be a more viable option.
 
Subsequently, I added more elements to the scenario, including A-50 and a full suite of short-range and long-range SAM systems for the Russian. The Ukrainian F-16 takes off near Vinnytsia, flies at high altitude over Zaporizhzhia, transitions to low altitude, and turns southeast towards Orikhiv. This brings an additional issue: after flying over 200 nm, the low-flying F-16 only has around 20 minutes of fuel remaining before Bingo Fuel, meaning it can only perform one attack before disengaging.
 
Similar to before, the F-16's radar detects the Ka-52 at 16 nm, but both aircraft are in low altitude, significantly reducing the effective range of the AIM-120B missile due to air resistance (and yes, max range =/= effective range). The F-16 must close in to approximately 7 nm for the Ka-52 to be within the missile's Dynamic Launch Zone (DLZ). However, before reaching this distance, the F-16 pilot receives multiple SAM radar warning alerts.
 
In summary, after conducting a single AMRAAM attack, the F-16 must turn and disengage. The success rate is not high, with a small probability of the F-16 being shot down by SAMs, and the chance of the AIM-120B hitting the Ka-52 at the extreme edge of its effective range is also low. According to the PoH calculation formula in CMO, this probability is only 29%.
 
Please note that this simulation only considers the Russian ground-based SAM systems, and if a group of Su-35s are added to provide CAP, the F-16's chances of a successful attack would be extremely low.
 
The conclusion drawn from this simulation is that the Ukrainian F-16 should focus on its main tasks, such as gaining air superiority and conducting SEAD, plus attacking Russian airfields and ground support. The mission of hunting down the airborne Ka-52 within Russian-controlled territory should be assigned to other weapons and equipment.

I somewhat disagree that this is about what works or does not work. According to my observations, RU depleted local resources, paused, and then began to bring in portions of main reserves, pushing helis and other weapon systems (i.e. TOS) forward. Naturally, in response to the RU move, UKR stopped in several places to analyze the altered situation, consolidate and redeploy forces. But they are also pushing in other directions (Pyatikhatka).
As a result, the pause is due to a major change in the RU disposition that UKR need to reassess and react. Unfortunately, the RU change is not what we are waiting for yet. 
 
Exactly. From the start of the offensive, I am getting waaay less useful info from RU sources. They are all now like - Our glorious guys are holding against UKR human waves! UKR dead bodies are piling up but your guy report everything is fine!
Also, that's why we must be extra careful with Western media , pundits and OSINT guys now because they are getting info for the same sources which is mostly BS now. 
Look at Girkin now:
There are two issues here. Girkin, unlike in the past, unequivocally supports RU MOD claims about losses. He also lies about the significance of Pyatikhatky (it is a road to Vasilevka that opens up a route to the flank and creates the Vasilevka-Kamianke pocket). He now writes as if he is the unofficial RU MOD spokesperson.
Have Western media and various pundits realized it yet? I doubt. 

Regarding the morale of the Russian army, here is an unverified interview with a Russian officer that I still feel is credible. The interview (or rather phone conversation) is a reaction from an officer to a previous piece that included statements from other RU officers who criticized Putin's speech during meetings with RU Nat reporters.
It is lengthy, but I believe it is necessary to transcribe it in its whole in order to convey an impression of the real RU army morale and mentality now. 
 

Meanwhile in Combat Mission, drive it through three wooden fences and it gets immobilised.

From me. I am making them based on content inside of the boxes. Basically I read post, I make map, mark settlements, mark actions (directions of attacks) then put text boxes with descriptions at close to location as possible. 

Idiot w camera nearly shot two of his comrades in back of the head.  Hopefully there's more like him in RU army, will save UKR a lot of effort.

Naysayer? I don't think so, at least not just for the sake of it  I just value good analyses and discussions to gain knowledge. While I understand the temptation of getting rid of those annoying contrary opinions, the result is an echo chamber which is the exact opposite of gaining solid knowledge.
As long as people keep it civil, accept facts and can be reasoned with (there is of course no point in discussing with people who are always right, no matter how much evidence there is that they are actually wrong) I see no use in excluding them.

If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
P

lol c'mon guys, start a new thread on what rounds size is best and stopping power.  The UA isn't using those.

or just rank stupidity. I'm kind of past the point of wondering about Russian motivations.  They have done so many things beyond the pale of what is considered decent human behavior that I just don't think I can attribute what I'd consider rational behavior to their thought process.

Exactly. Would have been a strange coincidence if it collapsed "naturally". 
 
 

One of my ongoing side projects (aimed, mostly, at the new influx of Steam Players) is to host an 'All in One' for every CM game here.
CMSF2 has been a bit of a mess on that front with separate modpacks for Syria, Afghanistan as well as old dropboxes of content from SF1 scattered around the place.
This has now all been brought together under one package... a proper 'All in One'.
Arguably this 'All in Ones' primary feature is a vast mass of content (361 scenarios* & 31 campaigns) which has been organized into four different categories...
 
Syria
The default modpack should be fairly familiar to many consisting of (tweaked) versions of @Kieme(ITA)'s outstanding terrain & buildings mods (I also added a few of @Zveroboy1's Allepo buildings), @MikeyD's horizons, @Pete Wenman's flavour objects, a tweaked version of @Sir Lancelot's realistic Syrians, @Jock Tamson's unconventional & (tweaked) British mods, tweaked versions of @AtlasActual's Canadians & a few bits & pieces from @mjkerner's USMC mods. There are also some .mds fixes by @Kevin2k & @Jace11. Many of the old SF1 vehicle mods by the likes of @Ryujin, @M1A1TC, @Kieme(ITA) & @Marco Bergman will also be quite familiar. @Mord's Marine vehicles have been given [brown] tags & so don't conflict with the US Army vehicles.
UI mods are provided by @xacto, @SteppenWolf, @Vinnart, @Mord & @MikeyD. Whilst music is a mix from @Blimey & (I believe) @Augusto. The ME effects compliation & ME soundscape (with its expanded dynamic range) & voices by waclaw, @George MC &  @Mord complete the package.
What might not be familiar is that I have added "rudimentary weathering" to (I believe) every vehicle in the game & used @JMDECC's .psd layers to add dust to every uniform.
207 user made scenarios & 23 user made campaigns are set in Syria.



There are three zip files inside the Syrian mod folder labelled Afghanistan, MENA & OPFOR. Unzip ONE of these files to activate that particular regions mods...
 
Afghanistan
Users of the (now discontinued) SF2-Afghanistan 'All in one' will be familiar with this mod option. It is in essence a fusion of @Zveroboy1's excellent Afghanistan, Taliban & ANA mods alongside a port of Combat Mission: Afghanistan's terrain & @Bil Hardenberger's Afghanistan trees as well as various doodads from @SeinfeldRules & @Kieme(ITA). The modpack has been tweaked & simplified somewhat from the 2021 version but little has really changed.
There is now a folder for appropriate text changes (renaming "Syria" into "Afghanistan" for example) however this will only work for the current game version (2.06). This folder will have to be deleted for all other game versions prior or to come.
2 user made campaigns & 44 scenarios have been given an "AFG" prefix to highlight that they are set in Afghanistan.



 
"Middle East & North Africa" aka "MENA"
Whilst planning the 'All in One' I was considering updating the old "Road to Bahgdad" mod by @Blimey using primarily the cool DCU uniform mods by @beeron & @Damian45.
However as I sorted through all the user made scenarios, I came to realize that there were many other Middle Eastern scenarios set in places like Libya, various fictional Middle Eastern kingdoms, various training camps & even a blue on blue battle set in an Egyptian shopping mall.  As such the MENA modpack was born... the best way of describing it is "The Middle East but NOT Syria".
Terrain & doodads are a port of the old SF1 terrain & (I think) is quite pleasing to the eye (it also looks much sandier than I remembered). @SteppenWolf's UI & music take centre stage here & more of @Zveroboy1's buildings enter the mix. There's a few different vehicles by @M1A1TC, some more voices by @Mord (as well as a different mix of portraits). @JMDECC's .psd's have been used to create alternative red uniforms alongside his Iranian vehicles (although these have also been rudimentarily weathered &, inspired by @IICptMillerII's sandy vehicles, recoloured somewhat).
There is also a folder for appropriate text changes however this will only work for the current game version (2.06). This folder will have to be deleted for all other game versions prior or to come.
2 user made campiagns & 60 scenarios have been given a "MENA" prefix to highlight that they are not set in Syria.



 
"Generic OPFOR"
The old SF1 content creators (and some of the newer SF2 ones) were an adventurous & experimental bunch and, with only one CM game to work with for many years, unsurprisingly made a considerable amount of content set in alternative theatres. There are scenarios set in Europe, in Chechnya, on Artic Islands, nuclear wastelands, Africa, South America, New Zealand, New England, various fictional countries... I think there's a Chinese invasion of the United States & a zombie attack or two.
To mod all of these places would be impractical to say the least, so I came up with the "Generic OPFOR"... they are everyone & nobody, everywhere & nowhere.
Terrain is a mix of the old Euroscape & Syrope mods by @dpabrams & @birdstrike respectively as well as their US vehicle mods. @Kevin2k provides the Syrian & British vehicle mods whilst @JMDECC provides the various woodland uniforms. I also added some @Oleksandr uniforms to the mix.
Yet more of @Zveroboy1's buildings are added to the mix alongside the modern UI mod by @Kinophile. I have no idea where the music tracks are from.
There is also a folder for appropriate text changes however this will only work for the current game version (2.06). This folder will have to be deleted for all other game versions prior or to come.
4 user made campaigns & 50 scenarios have been given the "OPFOR" prefix to highlight that they are not set in the Middle East.



 
There's also another two additional folders...
Extras & Options
Here you will find various extras which can be activated when needed or desired for example there's a modern version of @RockinHarry's re-animate mods (I used a lot of SF1 animations for the modded stances) designed to keep the pixeltruppens heads down & (possibly) increase their survivability.
There's the old SF1 marsh & mud to water mods which can be used whilst playing SF1 campaigns which are meant to have water on them (the old content creators did not have access to water so often made do with marsh).
There's an untagged night effects pack designed for dawn/dusk scenarios (this will also have the added benefit of removing all those sunglasses... your troops will no longer wear shades at sunset) as well as @Kieme(ITA)'s optional HD highway pack (these look good but don't work with every maps highway set-up).
Modtags
There's not many but here you will find @Zveroboy1's ANP pick-up, a weathered & desert version of @Chelentano's T-34, the old "Road to Bahgdad" cemetary mod & @Pete Wenman's squalor mod. They're activated automatically.
 
DOWNLOAD LINKS & INSTALLATION
 
https://www.mediafire.com/file/hk8tt6jfxv2ro8l/CMSF2_%27All_in_One%27.7z/file
https://app.mediafire.com/izmk6muctniv5
Unzip the file & add the "Z for Syria" folder to your games data folder (the folder with the .brz files in it)... that's it.
For the content, add the campaign .cam files to your games campaign folder & the scenario .btt files to your games scenarios folder... I suggest adding the content to folders which only contain base game scenarios & campaigns.
 
*I have updated a lot of the old SF1 maps which featured marsh being used as pseudo-water with proper SF2 water however there's nothing much I could do about the campaigns (other than provide the old "marsh to water" mods as an optional extra).

Let's calm down a little, shall we?
This unpleasant "discussion" made me dig out a test I did some time ago. I've been doing data analysis for basically all my professional life, so I always suffer a bit when reading these threads. So, as we've been discussing on page one or so, anecdotal evidence ("here look at this battle, spotting is broken!!!!") is meaningless. But also doing "experiments" is only as good as the experiment itself plus the evaluation afterwards. First of all, if you do experiments, control the variables! Eliminate everything you are not directly interested in. If you want to look at spotting, do it on a flat surface and make both opponents hold fire. Because, as I often see, if you measure time until first shot, or kill, you are skewing the spotting process. Next, don't look at averages or medians alone. Look at distributions. And don't eliminate outliers. My text book about statistical data analysis said that, eliminating outliers, although done often, should really only be done if you know what you are doing, e.g. when you know that your outlier is actually some measurement error and not some rare event.
So, here's what I did:
I put an M60 TTS and a bog standard T72 (the exact models aren't relevant for the method) on a flat map with paved ground, roughly 2 km apart. I set both vehicles to hold fire. I then measured the time it took for each tank to first get a partial contact and then a full contact.
Here is the raw data:
t72 = [84, 17, 78, 4, 174, 65, 77, 321, 289, 444, 31, 3, 290, 2, 40, 120, 40, 159, 57, 69, 15, 54, 80, 95, 19, 58,
       23, 672, 154, 154, 17, 14, 342, 12, 386, 43, 84, 12, 378, 123, 30, 44, 240, 311, 110, 2, 68, 181, 137]
t72_id = [7, 21, 7,28, 7, 35, 14, 0, 56, 0, 35, 0, 7, 70, 42, 7, 35, 35, 0, 49, 0, 7, 0, 0, 0, 63, 28, 7, 14, 0,
          7, 7, 7, 49, 7, 21, 14, 21, 14, 0, 7, 14, 28, 0, 14, 7, 28, 56, 77]
m60 = [89, 68, 41, 38, 71, 10, 73, 0, 20, 9, 4, 55, 91, 34, 31, 8, 14, 116, 64, 4, 18, 63, 116, 38, 3, 18, 71, 132,
       39, 73, 43, 73, 116, 210, 207, 36, 180, 27, 88, 48, 102, 3, 52, 77, 176, 22, 18, 80, 24]
m60_id = [7, 7, 7, 0, 14, 14, 0, 14, 14, 7, 14, 0, 7, 14, 35, 14, 7, 0, 7, 14, 7, 0, 14, 7, 7, 7, 14, 35, 7, 0, 7, 0,
          0, 7, 0, 7, 14, 14, 7, 7, 7, 0, 7, 0, 0, 7, 21, 7, 7]
Times are in seconds, the entry t72 is time until partial contact for the T72 trying to spot the M60, the one with  "_id" is the difference between partial and full contact. The same for m60. And in order to get the distributions I made histograms with 30s bins for plots 1 and 3 and 7s for plot 2.



So, what do we see here? Well, first of all, I should have taken at least ten times the data or make make larger bins. I didn't have the patience for the former and doing the latter would mean that we don't see much of a distribution. 😉 Anyway, from the raw data we see: time until partial contact can be any number, time to ID (which is what I call time to go from partial to full contact) is always a multiple of 7.
The histograms tell us the following: Although it is not possible to get the exact distribution, this is definitely not something symmetrical where average or media are easy to interpret. If you look at the bins with the highest counts, those are at low times. That means, players will usually see that their T72 or M60 are often quick to spot their target. Nothing to complain about or make a forum "rant". But for both (!) tanks it is quite possible that it takes several minutes - more likely for the T72 but also the M60 TTS had an event with over 3.5 minutes. The time until partial contact is consistent (no more, no less) with an exponential decay which you would expect when counting the number of dice rolls necessary to roll a specific number - only that the M60 TTS rolls with a D6, while the T72 rolls a D20, so to speak.
Now, is spotting "broken" or not? For me, this is really not a meaningful thing to say. Because by "broken" people usually mean "takes too long" without saying what "too long" is and why. With the above distributions, it is possible to never spot the target. Right? Wrong? Broken? This is a game/simulation and as any such thing, at least if you want it to run in reasonable time on a consumer machine, it is simpler than real life and abstracted. A meaningful discussion would be "Is this spotting model adequate? Could CM do better by applying model XYZ, instead?". I'm not sure if the long tails (what some call "outliers") are working as intended (although I find @The_Capt analogy with the barrel quite convincing) or if it is a model that is just designed to get the "center", the common situations, right, accepting that every now and then it produces something odd. But getting the tails of an exponentially decaying distribution right is brutally difficult - in fact, come to think of it, my whole PhD thesis was about modelling the tails of a similar distribution correctly.
 

If you're playing the Sov and you put your tanks in a situation where they are getting into 1:1 duels with the Americans you're doing something wrong. 
Bring a platoon or a company of tanks along instead. Or, even better, infiltrate infantry ATGM teams forward and kill them the way. The Sov has very competent infantry luggable ATGMs that will absolutely wreck pre-M1 armor. 
H

Just some info regarding the IR capabilities of the T-80s: the early T-80s uses the TPN-3 which is equipped with a much more sensitive infrared image converter assembly than its predecessor. The passive range of the early versions is between 500 and 800m. With the support of the modernized infrared headlight L4A, which had received a more luminous lamp, the visibility in active operation increased to about 1200 m. Still worse than the western technology but still more than 20m as in my video example. 

I do share this frustation in many battles when i play the soviets. Just now i experienced a harrowing view. My T80B1 is driving into the enemy. Many of its company are already dead from invisble enemies. C2 didn't help. Infantry spotted and relayed the contacts to the HQ, but the info didn't trickle down to the tanks. So i just drove my tanks to near (20m) range of the enemy, still seeing nothing. I have recorded this from both views. Playing the soviets is no fun at all.
 
View from the T80B1:
and the view from the US side:
 

Just some info regarding the IR capabilities of the T-80s: the early T-80s uses the TPN-3 which is equipped with a much more sensitive infrared image converter assembly than its predecessor. The passive range of the early versions is between 500 and 800m. With the support of the modernized infrared headlight L4A, which had received a more luminous lamp, the visibility in active operation increased to about 1200 m. Still worse than the western technology but still more than 20m as in my video example.