Vanir Ausf B

See you all on the battlefield…

in bullet points:
- airborne moved to mobile reserve or QRF role
- Bakhmut has culminated after the UKR rotation and counterattacks. for now...
- Wagner has lost lots of its internal power with the failure of Bakmut
- Internal power shifting back towards the RU MoD
- tactics moving towards using more bodies than vehicles or ammo -> Recon by light high casualty infantry assaults to expose UKR positions for artillery and future assaults.
- at the start of the war, RUS was sort of manpower but had ammo and equipment. Now the situation has reversed with the mobilization. 180 turn here in tactics.
 
- Ukraine still generating new units and even corps
- Ukraine failed to achieve the best outcome in operations after Kherson. This prevented RUS from reconstituting its forces and "chasing them out". Instead, Russia has managed to drag UKR into a grinding long fight in Bakhmut, Luhansk area.
- Russia has managed to stabilize the fronts with the mobilization efforts.
- UKR is building toward a major new offensive. The question is again the state of the UKR forces.
- Current phase is transitional and we are waiting for the next major UKR offensive operation. Michael is quessing it is going to look a lot more like Kherson than what we saw at Harkiv. This time RUS is not going to be on the wrong side of a river.
- This has been an attrition war. Even the Harkiv movement was enabled by attrition.
 
- RUS strategic strike infrastructure campaign is one of the most effective and dangerous things RUS has done. The situation is similar to spring 2022 when UKR had to transition to western artillery systems but now it is air defense systems.
- Strike campaign imposes a dilemma of AA on the front or in the rear. Also, it is to wear down UKR state capacity as a whole.
- US strategic strike infrastructure campaign is staring to get limited more and more by ammo, meaning the strikes are going to get spaced out more over time
- How much AA ammo does UKR have? How bad is the UKR grid situation? How fast can west supply AA systems?

- UKR taking RUS mobilization way more seriously than the west
- RUS is clearly now seriously trying to take Dombass. (maybe the deal was to allow Kherson to retreat to take Dombass)
- Russia has defensive capacity but only limited localized offensive ability
- Belarus attack does not seem likely at all atm (maybe a localized attack for example on Rivne nuclear power plant but the operation would have a long noticeable lead time with build-up)
- RUS system really seems to embrace loyalty, not competence
- Major leaders have messed up badly but have stayed loyal
- No major heads have fallen on the RUS leadership
- If the RUS higher-ups would start worrying about whose head falls next might lead to disaster. Fractures and defections.
- about "people fall out of windows". Lots of people die in Russia and not everything is connected to politics. Also, not every fire in Russia is sabotage. There needs to be actual evidence to make a case here.
- Analysts and Russians themselves were surprised by how strong support Russians have managed to build for this war internally.

Comments on the Marder IFV.
 
https://twitter.com/KampfmitKette/status/1611094917983490074
 

I asked Domfluff to help me out in creating a video about Soviet military doctrine in the Cold War era, and how those principles can be applied in a Combat Mission scenario/QB. He played a game against me as the Soviet Army, gave me an arse kicking, and then sat down with me and explained why he did what he did. The result is the video down below!
 

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com @sburke
About Ukrianian losses. During ATO/JFO UKR Wiki had memory page, where due to official reports and local media reportages was gathering database of fallen soldiers of all military and volunteer branches. In novadays the stream of information is too high, many soldiers still unrecognized, missed, captured, so this makes new data entries difficult. 
Wiki count since 24th Feb up to 31st Dec - 4047 new entries. 
Though, from other side our losses also counts Russian OSINT source LostArmour. On 5th of Dec they issued summary from 24th Feb to 30th Nov, based on official UKR lists of posthumous awarding
Here theese data by month.  
...And by military branches
 
As we can see, overall 5166 of losses. And these are awarded only ones. Among them Armed Forces - 4367, National Guard - 575, State Border Guard - 169, State Emergency Service - 21, National Police - 34
To count unawarded fallen soldiers from our Wiki to add this number to LostArmour list is huge piece of work. But roughly I think we can add about 3000 of soldiers.
Also Zelenskiy after some POWs exchange told, that Ukraine turned back already 1350 of people (but not all they were militaries). Since he has said this we returned more 300 soldiers and civilians.
Also other infographic from LostArtmour - losses among UKR officers on 30th of November. But this list was made according differnet sometime unverified information and including all officers - awarded and unawarded.
  
So, LA claims in this list UKR lost 1501 officers: 62 colonels, 120 lt.colonels, 177 majors, 260 captains, 438 sen.lts, 288 lts, 78 jr.lts, 20 other officers of unknown rank, 53 retired officers, 5 foreign officers.
Also pay atatntion - in first table we can see 766 awarded fallen officers, and the second table gives to us total number of lost officers 1501, approx 1:2 ratio. I think among soldiers and sergeants this ratio should be bigger. In this case total number of UKR losses (KIA) could be around 13000-15000

I came across something extremely interesting - a transcript from the French National Defense
and Armed Forces Commission, from November 16th. It concerns various subjects, but let me paste here the most juicy bits (Google translated):
On the RU losses:
On the monetary value military support from US vs UE:
And a bit about training UA forces and their plans:
Full document is available here:
https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/16/comptes-rendus/cion_def/l16cion_def2223022_compte-rendu#

Again, the no-fly zone argument. If the premise is that there is no downside to direct conflict all sorts of possibilities open up. Indeed one would then have to ask why not begin airstrikes on Russian forces immediately. That's where you'll end up eventually. Might as well cut to the chase.
But we had this discussion six months ago. No matter what you or I think of it's merits there is a zero point zero percent chance of it happening.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/maximum-pressure-brought-down-the-soviet-union-and-other-lies-we-tell-ourselves/
This is a good article on how the western story of soviet unions collapse is mostly false. It was not ever determined and could have easily gone the other way.
They also have a podcast series ongoing about the subject (paywall): https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28031/the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union-part-1/
I am thinking that the common meme thinking about "collapse" is mostly just that, a meme. Everything is always collapsing, China, USA, EU economy, Iran .... When we look back in history collapses are quite rare.

You can cut and paste the no-fly zone debate. Bottom line is that NATO is a collective action organization, i.e. a blockade would have to be agreed to by all member nations. There is no chance of that.

Again, the no-fly zone argument. If the premise is that there is no downside to direct conflict all sorts of possibilities open up. Indeed one would then have to ask why not begin airstrikes on Russian forces immediately. That's where you'll end up eventually. Might as well cut to the chase.
But we had this discussion six months ago. No matter what you or I think of it's merits there is a zero point zero percent chance of it happening.

You can cut and paste the no-fly zone debate. Bottom line is that NATO is a collective action organization, i.e. a blockade would have to be agreed to by all member nations. There is no chance of that.

You can cut and paste the no-fly zone debate. Bottom line is that NATO is a collective action organization, i.e. a blockade would have to be agreed to by all member nations. There is no chance of that.

UKR BM "Bulat" (or last version of BM2 "Bulat") was hit in top turret with HEAT shell from enemy tank. "Nizh" ERA saved the tank - no penetration, but explosion of the shell and ERA inflicted next damages - HMG, commander's cupola (triplex broken), radio equipment (probably antenna was destroyed), wind sensor
 
 

Absolutely hilarious rant:
 

my yesterday's post about the BMP-3 but with English subtitles

Lucky UKR mortar crew. Probably 82 mm mortar shell hit very close, but only one wounded
 

Slight taken - and highly inaccurate assessment to boot.
First off we are not just talking about “electronics” we are talking about the entirety of Russian trade as the West won’t do business with Russia until some renormalization conditions post-war are met…right? Stuff like reparations payments and war crimes prosecution?  Looking at Europe pointedly here.
As for Canada, we do about .5 trillion dollars in trade with the US per year.  If that all walked over to China I am sure it would register as a “blip”.  The shift in oil and gas alone would likely freak everyone out even with the size of the US economy.
https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/canada/tradestats
As for Russia, well the news is not great.  Russia sells about $221B in oil and gas per year, and only about $45B of that to China.  If Russia can only sell oil and gas to China due to sanctions and this war it will quadruple the amount of exports available to China and other “outside” markets.  China is not stupid and will take advantage of Russias position to secure cheap energy.
https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/tradestats
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/china
Now I am no business expert, but I am pretty sure pushing cheap energy in the direction of a competitor is never really the best outcome.  Now China has to access that energy, which will mean serious investment.  Or they could also buy the oil and gas companies in Russia and export the stuff back to Europe through loopholes.  I am sure there are very clever economics people who can hack the system here to ensure China comes out on top.
Point being is that Russia has the 11th largest economy on the planet and if it is pushed into Chinese orbit it will not exactly help the western cause.  Of course Russia will also be a social and political train wreck so making them China’s problem has a possible upside there.
I think LLF’s point is that the post-war geopolitical shift is going to have serious repercussions and we might want to put that in the old mental wheelhouses.

First off thanks to all those who have supported the Battlepack by purchasing it, and a shout out to those who have provided their support in the creation of this project – and a huge shout out to those who have freely given their feedback and additional support publicly via various means – online streaming vids, DARs, AARs and various forum posts etc, Its truly heartening to read and see these. 

It’s just as well, being Scottish, that we are renowned for being slow to anger and not prone to unprovoked outbursts. On a personal note a mahhoosive amount of work went into the battle pack, at my end. Work of which I am truly proud off. The lion’s share of research, mapmaking and AI plan stuff was devoted to the two campaigns and the Rakow and the Dying Sun scenario. These all involved painstakingly creating huge new maps from primary sources. Research turned up several ‘loose’ ends regarding accepted historical narrative and I’m as chuffed with these as the scenarios!

I digress… In short this sucked up a huge amount of time and I was also involved in several other projects (which I was keen to be involved in including CMFR and CMCW). Creating new content, AI plans etc for the Battlepack was a significant endeavour. So yup I used bits of various previous maps (which were my own creations and made available publicly) which I then significantly tweaked – mainly because I could not positively ID RL locations, or the fact is I thought the map – like Der Ring (which by the way took nearly a year to produce) to have a new life after some major tweaking. I’ve done this on previous game families with other maps. A few astute observers might have spotted them. 

But, and I should stress this, in the case of Der Ring it was heavily reworked and I created brand new AI plans (I had to as I’d chopped and reused bits) etc. So yes whilst some stuff is based on sections of der Ring they are more the offspring – rather than the map wearing a false wig and a pair of dodgy specs…

Re the rather offensive swipes about scamming, well,  re the master maps it’s pretty clear that as stated on the BFC website that they are “New maps based on maps from the Battle Pack missions”. 

Years back I used to be with a punk band – another life another story…. One of the bands (way more successful than we were) we did some gigs with, had their singer on one of their records state this quote, it was along the lines of – “Whatever you do they’ll slate you off and criticise you to the ground…” It’s stood me in good stead through life.
So aye happy to take the constructive knocks, but I’m less inclined to give credence tae whingers.
 

Volodymyr Yezhov "Fresh", one of creators of S.T.A.L.K.E.R game from UKR GSC Games company (also developed known RTS "Cossacks") was killed near Bakhmut. In that time, when Russia is grindering own crimimals we are losing many good creative people...
 

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

You're full of Christmas cheer aren't you.  Der Ring der 5 Panzer you got for free in the first place as @George MCreleased that as a community scenario .  So let's say 30% is 'old content.'  Looks like you're owed $3.  Let me know where to send the money to or maybe we'll set up a crowdfund.

A good demonstration of the features of the use of tanks in the war in Ukraine. There are no bold attacks by tank columns. Instead, single vehicles are used for rapid shelling and subsequent retreat.
Also, this video perfectly demonstrates one of the main drawbacks of Soviet tanks - a slow reverse, which makes the tankers turn their backs.

Not just some Lady, Massicot is a smart one. Careful analyst. I don't think she was on the Kyiv Doomed bandwagon,  for example. 
Good link, thank you

from some lady tweeting from RAND, by way of /r/credibledefense, of the changes spoken about in MoD-Putin conference. Interesting premise, Russia might not reform the way at least most in the West would consider "correct". 
 
 
 
 

Insane clip. Soon helicopters could be equipped with mine plows, they fly so close to the ground anyway.