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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in The Year Ahead Bone Post   
    Yeah whatever the Nazis did doesn't excuse atrocities on the other side.  You either stand for morality or you don't.  You can't stand for morality on just one side.
  2. Like
    Holien got a reaction from danfrodo in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    We only have to look back to our favourite period of history to see how extreme situations are used by populist politicians to whip people up into stupidity that can wreck entire countries...
    Let's hope we just have a pandemic and nothing else...
    I am all for holding the politicians accountable no matter which country...
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to SimpleSimon in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    Our living standards today are a result of globalized markets and international trade. This crisis very much plays into the hands of Protectionists everywhere, but the world can't go back to the economy of 1940 or 1960 or even 1980. There's too many people now and too many needs to be met that the far smaller scales of history could never meet. Globalized markets are interconnected now for better or worse.
    This is part of the reason why the US is effectively unable to conduct a 1942 style mass mobilization of resources. There aren't tons of closed factories sitting around everywhere on mothball. They're all in other countries, but not always the countries you might think. Since the end of the Cold War the Democracies have been configuring exclusively on markets of service and speculation, more money in, less money out on payroll and HR. American workers are too expensive, demanding things like health care benefits, pensions, and the audacity of live-able pay! Crazy right? Yet it wasn't to China or India that most of that manufacturing went...
    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports
    China is only the 2nd largest source of imports for the US, the first is the European Union. Combined with non-Eurozone (lots of Eastern Europe) members by the way imports from China are barely one half of the total, and US imports from the rest of North America (ie: Canada and Mexico) also greatly exceed imports from China. This is a major reason why in 2010 the Fed rode to the rescue of the Eurozone and not to the Chinese. (The other major reason was the considerable effectiveness of the People's Bank of China in fighting a financial crisis. Both the Fed and the People's Bank can control interest rates, but the People's Bank can also set the terms of credit issuance to banks.) 
    While it would be mistaken to believe that China's economy is reliant on American markets, the fact that the Yuan is pegged to the Dollar also means China doesn't have anything to gain from depressed American consumption. Trump's trade war came as a real shock to Beijing, for reasons I can guess had a lot do with Beijing's perception that American leadership was bound to be rational where money was involved...
    Far be it from me to point out the depressing number of times American media and American leaders have historically played up to groundless fear and paranoia of an Asian Nemesis. The upcoming round of China-bashing that is starting to emerge from American media isn't even original, just more canned talking-points from the 2000s that were themselves repackaged nationalist/protectionist cliches from the 1980s against Japan. Communist leaders are often baffled by the concept of "Political Theater" we conduct in the west, but that's because power and mobility in Communist states is usually handled by party insiders and internal lines and not by popular election. 
    Chinese leaders are going to worry about China first, but that shouldn't lead one to believe that they would find it easy to abandon the US, or desirable to compete with it.
  4. Like
    Holien got a reaction from SimpleSimon in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    We only have to look back to our favourite period of history to see how extreme situations are used by populist politicians to whip people up into stupidity that can wreck entire countries...
    Let's hope we just have a pandemic and nothing else...
    I am all for holding the politicians accountable no matter which country...
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Wicky in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    Latest paper > Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries > 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf  
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    Yeah and @Holien agreed that just attacking China for the virus is stupid and unhelpful. The issue is more the response of that gov’t and its accountability just as I think Trump and Fox News should be accountable for spreading false information and contributing to the problem being far worse.  Interestingly there are suggestions that Fox News is quietly reviewing their exposure to being sued for the way they have spread false information and impacted communities and individuals. 
     
    and this far right s**t has got to be addressed. One guy was planning on targeting a hospital. And then this ahole this morning
    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/engineer-tried-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles-233500380--abc-news-topstories.html
    send some of these aholes to Guantanamo for terrorism.    
     
  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Wicky in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    Holien
    “Most experts believe that it is not a question of whether there will be another severe influenza pandemic, but when.”
    (The Government’s Chief Medical Officer, 2002)

    “Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population.”
    (Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer, 1 March 2005)
    https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/framework-pandemic-flu.pdf
    I studied the Effects of Global Pandemic for a project and presentation when I worked within the NHS in 2006 and realised we were woefully underprepared, and every year since it hasn't got much better.
    Brexit it bad enough, but this disaster, even when we're past it will be .. er interesting on so many levels. Like who's gonna pick the crops in the fields if we're all in lockdown... Govt prior to all this was planning on getting pensioners to replace foreign workers who'll be sorely lacking.

     
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Wicky in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/13/debunked-this-images-doesn-t-show-extent-of-corpse-burning-in-wuhan
    In short, this looks like just another more example of the difficulty of separating rumours and misinformation in a subject as sensitive as the coronavirus. Many take advantage of the traditional opacity of the Chinese authorities to multiply the most gruesome speculations.
    The World Health Organization itself or the major social networks and Internet platforms have created special pages to try to stop false rumours about COVID-19.
  9. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Wicky in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    https://fullfact.org/health/satellites-wuhan-sulphur-dioxide-coronavirus/
    These aren’t satellite images and they don’t show evidence of mass cremations in Wuhan
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Holman in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    You're really suggesting that FreeRepublic is less biased than the Annenberg Public Policy Center, which runs FactCheck.org?
  11. Like
    Holien got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
    Article trying to get an understanding of Covid vs Flu and the analysis the uk government is working with. 
    If you think this might be an overreaction it explains the modelling and why the government response is being undertaken. 
    As a leader would you be re elected if you were shown as killing 500,000 people by August? 
  12. Upvote
    Holien reacted to danfrodo in THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM   
    I've got an idea.  Let's NOT trust scientists & doctors who ACTUALLY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. Let's trust Fox news, who've done a stellar job of brainwashing people into being very unsafe (recent poll showed only 38% of Fox watchers thought virus was serious).  Let's trust the average Joe.  Like we do on climate change in america, where the scientists are all liars but folks making money off fossil fuels somehow have no reason to lie.  Oh, and basic biology is not based on evolution,  just ask the average joe.  And the earth is 6000 years old.  Just ask Joe.  And average Joe wants to know who is to blame for this!  F--k average joe, he is an idiot.
    This is not complicated to understand -- we must slow the infection RATE.  Italy has over 4000 dead w 627 dying in a single day this week and US is around a week behind them in getting our infection started.  No one in this thread so far has mentioned "flattening the curve", which is the most basic requirement for understanding what is happening:  The death rate for covid is less than 1%.  UNTIL YOU RUN OUT OF VENTILATORS THEN IT'S 3-5%.  That's 10 million in america alone.  We must keep the number of life-threatening cases below the number of respirators we have available, or 1% becomes 5%.  Italian doctors have to decide who to save because they have more dying folks than life saving machines.
    But here I see mostly conspiracy theory and unsubstantiated internet drive (w some welcome and notable exceptions).  
    By the way, do y'all know where the Spanish Flu actually started?  Kansas, USA, army base had the first verified case, though where it actually 'started' is unknown.
     
  13. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Well they have arrived at the final destination and Bootie has cleared some space...
    Hopefully won't get into trouble posting the link he gave me for his YouTube Channel...
    It does mean you get to see who Bootie is....
    My Wife is already plotting what she will do with the free shelf space...
     
  14. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sttp in The Year Ahead Bone Post   
    To the contrary, the rise of Trump offers valuable insights into the rise of authoritarianism, and how certain elements of a country's population can be made to practically crave it. To me it would be more dangerous not to notice and discuss the historical parallels. I don't think anyone is saying that Trump is or will ultimately be responsible for tens of millions of deaths.
  15. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Wicky in German Panzer Grenadier doctrine   
    Hi, I just watched him and I think he covers this with his later comments that the Sherman was successful on the strategic level.  So it was winning against these tanks. He even mentions that people focus on the tactical level. Which I think you might be falling into that trap?
    So in context of his talk you should view it at the strategic level.  I.e yes for those tanks that had to face head on those uber tanks they needed a better tank, but by having more Sherman's that worked it meant that they were available for the whole front and every company fighting had support. While the German uber tanks were limited and could not be every where. They broke down / were bypassed. 
    Just my interpretation of where he was coming from. 
  16. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in German Panzer Grenadier doctrine   
    Hi, I just watched him and I think he covers this with his later comments that the Sherman was successful on the strategic level.  So it was winning against these tanks. He even mentions that people focus on the tactical level. Which I think you might be falling into that trap?
    So in context of his talk you should view it at the strategic level.  I.e yes for those tanks that had to face head on those uber tanks they needed a better tank, but by having more Sherman's that worked it meant that they were available for the whole front and every company fighting had support. While the German uber tanks were limited and could not be every where. They broke down / were bypassed. 
    Just my interpretation of where he was coming from. 
  17. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Bootie in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Well they have arrived at the final destination and Bootie has cleared some space...
    Hopefully won't get into trouble posting the link he gave me for his YouTube Channel...
    It does mean you get to see who Bootie is....
    My Wife is already plotting what she will do with the free shelf space...
     
  18. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Aquila-SmartWargames in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Happy New Year to the CM Scenario Designers...
    Thank You for all the work people have done over the years to entertain me and others...
    The following my help in future scenario designs....
    Part of my New Year Resolution is to have a tidy out of items I no longer use but may be of value to others.
    So I have the following Job Lot (to be Taken as a Whole) for any scenario designer that wants some excellent articles about various periods of WW2. They date (publication) from 1976 onwards...
    If you are not aware of After the Battle it is a Magazine that prints photo's of a specific battle or event in WW2 showing how it looks today compared to when the event took place. A lot of research and details with maps are usually included so a great resource for scenario designers...
    These are FREE just the cost of the postage to where you live (please bear in mind this is printed material and weighs around 16kg).
    The Numbers I have: -
    14,32,36,40,50,65, 90-92, 94-95, 99-142, 144-149, 152-155, 157-159, 161-163, 165-170 and a Special one about Arnhem.
    https://www.afterthebattle.com/
    Se the above link for specific details of each magazine and battles covered.
    If you want these please drop me a PM and we can work out how best to get them to you.
    If I have heard nothing by the end of January I will e-bay them....
    FYI - I live in the UK and if I can get weight under 15KG Hermes charges around £10 to deliver to the UK.
    BattleFront if this breeches any policy please delete but I am not making any money from this and want the community to benefit from the resources I have collected as a New Year gesture of good will to the CM Community....
     
  19. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Badger73 in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    These look like they have found an excellent home. Just sorting out logistics and once sorted I will update the thread...
  20. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Badger73 in A New Years Gift for the Design Community   
  21. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Badger73 in A New Years Gift for the Design Community   
  22. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Badger73 in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Happy New Year to the CM Scenario Designers...
    Thank You for all the work people have done over the years to entertain me and others...
    The following my help in future scenario designs....
    Part of my New Year Resolution is to have a tidy out of items I no longer use but may be of value to others.
    So I have the following Job Lot (to be Taken as a Whole) for any scenario designer that wants some excellent articles about various periods of WW2. They date (publication) from 1976 onwards...
    If you are not aware of After the Battle it is a Magazine that prints photo's of a specific battle or event in WW2 showing how it looks today compared to when the event took place. A lot of research and details with maps are usually included so a great resource for scenario designers...
    These are FREE just the cost of the postage to where you live (please bear in mind this is printed material and weighs around 16kg).
    The Numbers I have: -
    14,32,36,40,50,65, 90-92, 94-95, 99-142, 144-149, 152-155, 157-159, 161-163, 165-170 and a Special one about Arnhem.
    https://www.afterthebattle.com/
    Se the above link for specific details of each magazine and battles covered.
    If you want these please drop me a PM and we can work out how best to get them to you.
    If I have heard nothing by the end of January I will e-bay them....
    FYI - I live in the UK and if I can get weight under 15KG Hermes charges around £10 to deliver to the UK.
    BattleFront if this breeches any policy please delete but I am not making any money from this and want the community to benefit from the resources I have collected as a New Year gesture of good will to the CM Community....
     
  23. Like
    Holien got a reaction from umlaut in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Happy New Year to the CM Scenario Designers...
    Thank You for all the work people have done over the years to entertain me and others...
    The following my help in future scenario designs....
    Part of my New Year Resolution is to have a tidy out of items I no longer use but may be of value to others.
    So I have the following Job Lot (to be Taken as a Whole) for any scenario designer that wants some excellent articles about various periods of WW2. They date (publication) from 1976 onwards...
    If you are not aware of After the Battle it is a Magazine that prints photo's of a specific battle or event in WW2 showing how it looks today compared to when the event took place. A lot of research and details with maps are usually included so a great resource for scenario designers...
    These are FREE just the cost of the postage to where you live (please bear in mind this is printed material and weighs around 16kg).
    The Numbers I have: -
    14,32,36,40,50,65, 90-92, 94-95, 99-142, 144-149, 152-155, 157-159, 161-163, 165-170 and a Special one about Arnhem.
    https://www.afterthebattle.com/
    Se the above link for specific details of each magazine and battles covered.
    If you want these please drop me a PM and we can work out how best to get them to you.
    If I have heard nothing by the end of January I will e-bay them....
    FYI - I live in the UK and if I can get weight under 15KG Hermes charges around £10 to deliver to the UK.
    BattleFront if this breeches any policy please delete but I am not making any money from this and want the community to benefit from the resources I have collected as a New Year gesture of good will to the CM Community....
     
  24. Like
    Holien got a reaction from benpark in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Happy New Year to the CM Scenario Designers...
    Thank You for all the work people have done over the years to entertain me and others...
    The following my help in future scenario designs....
    Part of my New Year Resolution is to have a tidy out of items I no longer use but may be of value to others.
    So I have the following Job Lot (to be Taken as a Whole) for any scenario designer that wants some excellent articles about various periods of WW2. They date (publication) from 1976 onwards...
    If you are not aware of After the Battle it is a Magazine that prints photo's of a specific battle or event in WW2 showing how it looks today compared to when the event took place. A lot of research and details with maps are usually included so a great resource for scenario designers...
    These are FREE just the cost of the postage to where you live (please bear in mind this is printed material and weighs around 16kg).
    The Numbers I have: -
    14,32,36,40,50,65, 90-92, 94-95, 99-142, 144-149, 152-155, 157-159, 161-163, 165-170 and a Special one about Arnhem.
    https://www.afterthebattle.com/
    Se the above link for specific details of each magazine and battles covered.
    If you want these please drop me a PM and we can work out how best to get them to you.
    If I have heard nothing by the end of January I will e-bay them....
    FYI - I live in the UK and if I can get weight under 15KG Hermes charges around £10 to deliver to the UK.
    BattleFront if this breeches any policy please delete but I am not making any money from this and want the community to benefit from the resources I have collected as a New Year gesture of good will to the CM Community....
     
  25. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in 76 Different Free Copies of After The Battle   
    Happy New Year to the CM Scenario Designers...
    Thank You for all the work people have done over the years to entertain me and others...
    The following my help in future scenario designs....
    Part of my New Year Resolution is to have a tidy out of items I no longer use but may be of value to others.
    So I have the following Job Lot (to be Taken as a Whole) for any scenario designer that wants some excellent articles about various periods of WW2. They date (publication) from 1976 onwards...
    If you are not aware of After the Battle it is a Magazine that prints photo's of a specific battle or event in WW2 showing how it looks today compared to when the event took place. A lot of research and details with maps are usually included so a great resource for scenario designers...
    These are FREE just the cost of the postage to where you live (please bear in mind this is printed material and weighs around 16kg).
    The Numbers I have: -
    14,32,36,40,50,65, 90-92, 94-95, 99-142, 144-149, 152-155, 157-159, 161-163, 165-170 and a Special one about Arnhem.
    https://www.afterthebattle.com/
    Se the above link for specific details of each magazine and battles covered.
    If you want these please drop me a PM and we can work out how best to get them to you.
    If I have heard nothing by the end of January I will e-bay them....
    FYI - I live in the UK and if I can get weight under 15KG Hermes charges around £10 to deliver to the UK.
    BattleFront if this breeches any policy please delete but I am not making any money from this and want the community to benefit from the resources I have collected as a New Year gesture of good will to the CM Community....
     
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