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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think that, beyond a certain point on the spectrum of of beliefs and positions, it's not useful to think of the hard right as rightwingonsteriods. The hard right aren't really in to the things traditionally associated with the right wing, such as effective but small government, self reliance, and low taxes. They're more into kleptoctratic autocracies run by a charismatic strongmen, and a barely- or non-functional rule of law. That's an environment which they think they'd personally be able to make out like bandits, or at the very least one in which people they don't like - LGBT+, furriners, libruls, etc - will be actively targeted and victimised.
    From that perspective, adulation of Putin makes a lot of sense.
     
  2. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Until I see real evidences or any confimations  that our artillery use our guided ammunition, I will consider that Western experts just can't believe that our artillery have such skills, gained for 8 years of practice, to hit the point target with 1-2 of usuaal shells   
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Chernihiv area, Kharkiv, Trostianets, Husarivka, Volnovakha, Izium. This all regular mechanized, motorized and air-assault forces. And again. Too few footage form this units. I read about two dozen of twitters of sevicemen of "regular" forces. And only several of them post short videos or at least photos. Other just write. I think, this just more tough censorship and it full absence in TD and volunteer units
  4. Upvote
    Holien reacted to c3k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My point is that the only thing keeping Putin from deploying conscripted Russians into the attack on Ukraine is that there is a Russian law prohibiting such a thing.
    Do you, or does anyone, think that Putin would let some words on paper keep him from his goal? That he'd rather be embarrassed, stymied, undermined, perhaps overthrown, than ignore a law? A law passed by a system which he controls?
    And, whatever his excuses to use conscripts, if the West or anyone else (as if there is any effective internal resistance left in Russia) cries "foul", he'll resort to his usual threats.
    So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.
    Much like the West looked aside as he invaded in 2014 (tourists, little green men, Tigres from ebay, etc.) he'll toss out a facile excuse (Ukraine is a rogue province (hey, it's working for China vis a vis Taiwan)) and expect the West to look at their feet, mumble excuses, and not do anything.
    The current modus operandi of the West supplying Ukraine with light weapons has not yet changed. Will it? I don't know. But I do know that Putin is a tyrant and that he can do what he wishes and just has to cloak it in the thinnest garb for it to be accepted by Russia.
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia will try to encircle JTO, so huge battle in northern axis near Izium area and on southern axis in Velyka Novosilka area.
    Already two days we have many photos of destroyed enemy vehicles from southern axis, so Russian offensive has some problems. Northern axim more problematic for us, the enemy try to advance from two directions. 
    Also heavy fights in Rubizhe - Sieverodonetsk, Popasna, Maryinka. Latter Russians already grounded on 50%. Unclear situatin near Avdiivka. Russians heave shell and bomb the town, but hasn't sucees on the ground. They can't pass industrial zone (so-called "Promka"). Some separs resources claim the fights continue near Yasynuvata (near Avdiivka, under DPR control since 2014), but I don't think this could be our counter-attack. Probably they meant clashes in area of Promka and Yasynuvata road junction 
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This comment...

    This is what the PC and Woke Brigade of the West cannot grasp about Russia

    ...has absolutely nothing to do with Ukrainians being angry about Russian war crimes!

    I KNOW exactly what it represents, and it has no place in this thread and that's why I'm calling it for what it is.

    That's whether you, or anyone else likes it or not... it is trolling! 

    Now I joined this thread after the first week of the war to read others views about the conflict, not to read about this sort of nonsense. Quite frankly, there's nothing that I am going to learn from this sort of socio-political diatribe, but there is a lot that I can learn about the military conflict. But these particular comments have no place here and are irrelevant to the topic. 
  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is certainly true! Johnson's Govt is desperate to demonstrate that the UK is leading in Europe.

    Brexit has been a disaster, exposing many short-comings of British policy introduced on the back of the change, although this hasn't been fully recognised by the electorate YET.... so the Govt is trying to head off the fallout now with any contingency measures it can employ to prevent the inevitable landslide in public opinion.

    Very specifically, a strong criticism of Brexit, as pointed out by the remain camp during the campaign was the likely diminished influence of the UK at the European table. The current crisis has obviously threatened to expose this vulnerability. This explains the UK Govt's approach to the crisis, as it attempts to cover up this prevalent weakness in UK diplomatic power. It's a form of over compensation intended for domestic consumption. With that, and other issues that are currently plague the UK Prime Minister, he needs consistently good newspaper headlines.   
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Actually, I think it is dumb for the British government / government actors (or any other donating nation) to be claiming credit for “their” weapons in individual incidents.  This lets Russia refocus from “we’re fighting Ukrainians” to “we’re fighting NATO,” which is a narrative they sorely need domestically.  STFU about what you are giving Ukraine, when you are giving it, and when and where it is being used.  Response should just be “the Ukrainians are effectively using all their tools at their disposal to defend their nation” and nothing else.  Britain, in particular, perhaps reflecting the narcissistic personality of their PM, seems to have decided this is some sort of international competition that they (or rather Johnson) needs to win.
  9. Upvote
    Holien reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    86 on 86. Among our released POWs 15 women
  11. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Rokossovski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  12. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  13. Like
    Holien got a reaction from billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  14. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are categorically wrong there.  That is exactly what has happened.  Russia has not ordered a full mobilization and already has an issue with conscripts refusing to serve in Ukraine.  There are very sharp political reasons for that.  Will Putin go that far?  Possibly.  The risks are extreme and likely require he actually declare it a war by Russian statute.  Assuming he does that, will it make a difference?  Mobilizing even more untrained cannon fodder with military hardware that may not even work?  The DPR/LNR guys and the Ossetians have already complained about being used as cannon fodder.   Again we are talking about a 300 mile front line.  I am not sure how many square kilometers that translates to.  The numbers just don't work.
  15. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  16. Like
    Holien got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  17. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Maquisard manqué in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gents please pay heed and take all this off line for heaven sake.
  18. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which history?  Afghanistan?  WW 1?  There is only so long the mythology of Napoleon and WW2 holds.  Russia doesn't have any serious allies nor a western alliance providing supplies.  They have what they brought and what they brought has been kicked in the face. There is no previous experience in Russia to compare with what is happening now.
    either way the next week or two should tell the story.
  19. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Could we maybe knock off these racist accusations? Russian is not a race. Ukranian is not a race. It's the same as saying American or British or French is a race. That's just nonsense and all it's doing is inflaming passions.
    Plus it's tiresome to wade through while trying to catch up.
    Dave
  20. Upvote
    Holien reacted to womble in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rubbish. Utter poppycock. Sure, 1.4 million people all working together would be a big lever to unseat Putin, but he has more than half that number in the Federal Police alone, and has spent the last 20 years breaking up the opposition so it can't work effectively together. Also, that "1%" would be diluted among the entier population, so it would only take 2% actively opposing them to shut them down completely.
    Don't get me wrong. I have great difficulty understanding how the Russian population as a whole can swallow Putin's self-contradictory nonsense justifications for the war to a sufficient degree that we see the bellicose support that we do, and I'm sure there are die-hard Russian Nationalists who truly think that Uncle Vlad is a saintly figure incapable of error, served by Angels. I think there does remain a sense of Russian exceptionalism that underlies their self-serving internal justifications for not "fixing or doing somefink" ever since the kleptocrats' thievery started undermining the initial successes of throwing off the old Soviet shackles. But I don't live there, and I can empathise with the wish to not be hospitalised by riot police thugs or sent off to the gulags. It must be difficult to see a way through for your average Russian-on-the-street, same as it does for your average Belarusian-on-the-street. And their leaders have been murdered, imprisoned or exiled as fast as they come forward, so there's nothing for opposition to crystallise around any more.
    Edit: Russian opposition is another frog that has been gently warmed up and is about boiled to death by now.
  21. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Brigade general SBU Andriy Naumov, the chief of SBU internal security directorate have lost own post as far as in July 2021 due to corruption scandal and dirty intermal withstanding inside SBU. He left Ukraine on 23th of Feb, one day before war began.
    Brigade general SBU, chief of SBU in Kherson oblast, Serhiy Kryvoruchko also left territory of Ukraine before invasion. Reportedly he gave to Russians all defense plans of Kherson oblast, which allowed Russians to seize it so quickly. 
    So, for now Zelensky can only dismiss them. Prosecution will be after the war. The irony, both were appointed and later promoted to brigade general ranks personally by Zelenskyi. And looks like he did it by advice of Andriy Yermak, the chief of Persident's Ofiice, which many in our contry consider as Kremlin agent of influence. And after the war his political opponents will remind him on this.
      
  22. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So to summarize, you still don't know then.  Here's a bonus question for you - which facility is it?
  23. Upvote
    Holien reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't be too quick to disregard it entirely though.
    Nighttime Helo lifts out of Mariupol are a *very* high risk operation and the UA knows it. I am a little skeptical that it would be done purely to evacuate wounded. Possible, but not likely.
    So a pullout of key Azov cadre who 'know too much' to be let fall into enemy hands seems militarily plausible.
  24. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The same can say about UKR infantry. But this is not sign of cowardice. The armor, especially in attack gives a confidence to infantry. The losses of armor reduce confidence, thus reduce motivation, especailly if this conscript/green troops with motivation low than avarage and their commander w/o any strong abilities ) 
    In the warfare of 2014-2015 both sides often stopped own attacks after the loss of several armored vehciles. 
  25. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry but this makes very little sense from a couple perspectives.  I am not sure why so many people need to somehow find a dark genius in Putin's actions and strategy.  I guess some have invested so much in making him the boogey-man that their own interests are at stake here while others sound like they are on the Russian payroll.
    So internally, starting a war and then losing it has never been a smart path to reinforcing internal control.  The worse one loses the more internal (not less) internal tension it creates.  This reinforces the idea that a quick war may have solved some of those internal issues.  Why try and suppress free press when they are crowing a quick victory parade in Kyiv?  So the idea that this was all a clever ploy to get a better domestic grip does not make a lot of sense unless you can get a quick win, which did not happen.  Every day Russia bleeds in Ukraine makes things worse, not better.
    Resource grab.  Well first off, if this was the aim they missed it:

    https://www.flandersinvestmentandtrade.com/export/sites/trade/files/market_studies/Ukrainian Energy Market_0.pdf
    Russia already had the Crimea.  It might have grabbed that thin sliver in the south and took a few nibbles from that big eastern field but the majority of that field is still in Ukrainian hands.  This might have been a goal on the initial invasion but the debacle we have seen unfold for a month now does not support an oil and gas grab strategy.
    Further, resource-wise this makes little sense.  Russia is sitting on 4.8% (ish - number swings around depending where you look), while Ukraine has a whopping .06%.  Gas is even crazier with Russia at 25% and Ukraine at .6% (https://www.worldometers.info/gas/#:~:text=There are 6%2C923 trillion cubic,levels and excluding unproven reserves).
    Why on earth would Putin risk the massive sanctions, which further exacerbate his domestic troubles, in order to try and grab a fraction of a ridiculously small share of oil and gas?  There are significant Black Sea reserves (https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=5ef9b6d829cd) but why wage a freakin land war all over the place if all you want to do is exploit offshore gas in a region where you already have vast naval superiority?
    Finally, how exactly has Putin achieved any of these strategic aims thus far?  He has to try and keep a lid on over 10k dead (and times-3 wounded) to avoid domestic pressures, increasing economic failure due to sanctions - leading to domestic pressure, and zero to show for it in "black gold", that you can only sell to China - who is going to gut you price-wise - thanks to said sanctions.  
    There is no master plan here, or at least not anymore.  Being an ex-KGB autocrat, Putin demonstrate acumen at subversion strategies; however, on this one he tried to "go loud" and is likely suffering from Dunning-Kruger shock right now as he slowly realizes that he is nowhere near as smart as his cronies have been telling him. 
     
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