Splinty

It is quite possible we didn't get the tape of this rocket being fired because it detonated in the tube and obliterated anyone with fifty meters.

Hamas is a tool of Iran as is Hezbollah.  Maybe Hezbollah will join the war next and open a new front.   Iran's stated goal is the destruction of Israel.  

Anyone noticed cannabis at 0:06 - 0:10?

All that talk about stopping or reducing military support for Ukraine is a bloody disgrace. And a war the West can't walk away from. A fight to the death.

Dunno if already posted
 

Anyone who hasn't read Timothy Snyders "Bloodlands" book should do so.The extent of the 360 degree awfulness pretty much anywhere between Berlin and Moscow was simply incomprehensible from 1900 to 1950. Not to say that it was the same everywhere in that large expanse of territory, but it was some flavor of awful in almost all of it. There was a whole lot of intentional forgetting after that, because it was the only way to get thru the day.
BTW I almost always read a book in a week or less, "Bloodlands" took me six months just because it is to awful to take more than little tiny bits.

If that is not 'Wool' (which has been made into the excellent TV series 'Silo') then I would like to know which.

These are so politically weaselly.  They are so badly put that they create an unassailable position.  If Russia runs over the border tomorrow and peace breaks out, they can still argue #1 and #2 during reconstruction or any follow on that is not perfect (which they never are).  If things stay bad, they can argue #3 - "we told you to do WW3, weak!"
These are really stating risks as facts and building positions around them.  Not a single solution other than - "ok, so what is the other political side doing?  Ok, we support the opposite."  The Biden administration could cure cancer and some of these people would march in the streets to defend medical jobs.  

True, and I really do appreciate it.
The drones, however, are flying over the city (one went pretty much overhead), and stray missiles and bullets (30mm with failed airburst fuzes) tend to hit whatever is in their way.
The midnight strikes went for almost two hours, I think. The most intensive air raid so far IMO.

Pretty intense, wallshaking bavovna after 0000. Massive and long. No sirens/alerts, no shelters opened. Informational vacuum in the dark of the night. Seems to be happening all over the place.
Here's to low CEP errors and reliable hardware. 

I've deleted my twitter account some months ago (and don't regret it), but I've unrolled it via another site and yeah, in my opinion that's accurate information. Just like with inserting and supplying Girkin and his buddies (Babai, Bezler etc) in the east (I still remember seeing a photo of that first truck fully loaded with RPGs "magically" appearing, and their first AKs on photos near administrative buildings), Russia was responsible for all sorts of events like that one. Odessa was just another point where they've created tension via various means. They've been doing stuff like that for a while, and for a lot of countries. Their special services are behind all kinds of really nasty stuff.
 
ps: There's a lot of burning grass today in Crimea. 🤨

Hilarious 
 
 

"Leaked" 🤣   Well, I am an expert with 38 years of submarine construction and testing, and as a subject matter expert I can say that that submarine is truly f-ed, FUBAR, SNAFU, scrap metal. 
Aren't you glad I'm here to provide you with my expert opinions?   😀
And kudos to Ukraine. Nice shot. 
Dave

Re: the sub images:

I love how someone went to all the trouble of pixelating the background.

Sorry to reply so late to this, but I really wanted to point it out, because I personally adore BBC. BBC.com is blocked in Russia and in the occupied territories. Except the Russian BBC channel on Telegram that I personally follow, but that's just because they've given up trying to block Telegram That one is fast as a lightning and is easy to access, thankfully.
BBC posts in Russian language in Telegram very frequently on a wide range of topics and is covering all kind of things, and they're doing a very good job. If there's any one news source on this planet one should follow, that's BBC.

Where can I get these excellent Soviet vehicle mods. Love the numbers!

That all sounds very truthy. But at no point in time has that ever been how anything works. Anti-tank munitions have always been far cheaper than the tanks they are meant to destroy. If you ever have an anti-tank munition that is more epensive than a tank, you don't have an anti-tank munition. There is a fancy name for this actually. It's the shot exchange problem, and it has been plaguing air defenses throughout this war as they struggle with decisions over whether or not to expend an expensive missile to shoot down a cheap drone (in fact this is the driving factor behind the big comeback that anti-aircraft guns have made, since they can shoot down cheap drones without expending ammunition that is more valuable than the drone). So no, cheap ways of killing tanks do not render tanks obsolete. Cheap ways of killing anything has never rendered anything obsolete.
And I should remind everyone that the tank losses in this war are not remotely unprecidented (no one mentioned heavy losses recently, but I think the number of tanks destroyed is a large part of why so many people seem to think the tank is obsolete). Tanks have taken extremely heavy losses in every single conventional war they have ever participated in (I'll admit that they haven't taken heavy losses in many guerilla wars as far as I'm aware). The Isrealis lost around 400 tanks in just the two weeks of the Yom Kippur War. The Germans lost around 25,000 tanks in WW2, with the combined US and British tank losses being about the same, and Soviet tank losses being over 80,000. Yes, this war is an order of magnitude smaller than WW2, but tank losses have also been about an order of magnitude smaller. As far as I can tell tank losses in this war have been about on par with WW2 when you adjust for scale.
I think I am in agreement with Steve that what is likely to render tanks obsolete in the near future is gun armed UGVs. The services that a tank provides on the battlefield are still essential. But once something comes along that can do a better job of providing those services, such as a UGV, the tank will no longer be required. So I think once a country somewhere adopts a gun-variant of a UGV the tank will be obsolecent (and fully obsolete once that gun UGV has been produced in sufficient quantities). When that happens it will not be Javelins or Lancets that rendered the tank obsolete, but a better direct-fire asset. Even when UGVs do render manned tanks obsolete, I'm still not sure that it won't be entirely appropriate to think of them as unmanned tanks.

All I can say is that in over 20 years being a member of this forum, I've never hit the Ignore button. Until today.

What air defenses? ;D
Apperently, there's less and less of them. BBC was pretty quick to report the local (my hometown) events, so you may wanna check that out.
No air raid warnings, no nothing. Nothing is happening, as always. Just bavovna and smoke. Even the announcer at the train station skips the usual "be observant and careful, careful and observant" this morning. How come, I wonder?
 
ps: I'm okay, and the windows are fine, for now.

Well, nowhere at the moment. I'm slowly (emphasis on slowly) retexturing the Soviet vehicle roster. They probably won't be released until I'm done with all of them.

A major strategic implication is on escalation.  Recall at the beginning of this war there was a lot of concern about a Russian “red line”.  Putin dropped all sorts of threats and the info-sphere lit up.  We continually see Ukraine strike deeper, higher and harder into Russian territories - Crimea definitely counts in Russian books.
The question now is “ok, so where is the Russian red line?”  Some will say “there isn’t one”.  I do not believe that, however, it is clear that it is also not hair trigger either.  This speaks to the myth of Russian escalation dominance.  They do not own the ladder, we do.  
Now a concern is narrative and tipping points.  My sense is that Putin et al are really crisis managing right now.  Playing all sides as best they can.  To some the loss of these two ships in a high profile strike is a catastrophic loss.  To others it is justification that Russia is indeed standing on its own against NATO and the US.  How these strikes are playing out inside Russia is definitely something worth watching out for.  Second is tipping points.  I do not get the sense that “clear strategy” is on the menu at the Kremlin right now.  So if there is a red line it is probably blurring and moves around.  It is also likely very relative.  Hit another 5 ships, no problem…hit the 6th and hell breaks loose because…Russia.
And then there is a solid theory that Russia has run out of escalation room.  They have fired all the missiles.  They have blown all the dams.  Nuclear power plants are all upwind.  WMDs are a non-starter unless they want WW3.  What is really left in the chamber?  Mobilization?  Maybe but it would have to be national…all industry and manpower.  That is a big step and they have shown no indications of doing it, let alone being able to do it under the current conditions. What can Russia do now except make quacking noises and lob more missiles at apartment buildings?   Plant more mines?
This whole thing has a boiling frog strategy feel to it.  

If the Russian sub was taken out, it would be the first time a military submarine was destroyed by a hostile adversary since WWII.  This isn't trivial.      

The issue with all the “conflicts” (not wars, as only Congress is authorized to declare war) was not the fault of the military Commanders, Units, and Marines, Soldiers, Sailors, and Airmen, it was the conditions and restrictions put on them by the politicians. I remember a very disgusting order the Marines were given after the Mai Lai massacre. When they were on combat patrols, they weren’t allowed to load a magazine into or load their weapons until they received fire from the enemy. You can be assured that they “lock and loaded” as soon as they were out of sight of their command tent.
For historical reference, the command “lock and load” comes from flintlock muskets where you would pull your “lock” back to half-cock, tear open the paper powder cartridge with your teeth, prime your pan with some powder, then “load” by pouring the remaining powder down the barrel, and ramming the ball that was still tied in the paper down to your breach plug. And remember to never go off “half-cocked” and hope you don’t have a “flash in the pan” while you’re standing “ramrod straight.”