Splinty

Doesn't get more hardcore than that...

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

what?  this level of pessimism isn't warranted yet. in fact most signs are pointing to this war becoming more and more a problem for the russian state.  Patience.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/27/republicans-support-ukraine-war/
Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than a year ago, the anti-Ukraine right has been working to convince the American people and the Republican Party that it is not in the United States’ interest to support Ukraine. They are failing miserably.
The House recently held its first votes on aid to Ukraine since the GOP took over in January — and on vote after vote, the vast majority of Republicans repeatedly voted to beat back amendments proposed by the anti-Ukraine faction.
I'm still up on my hill, US support for Ukraine is solid.

Mass vs Precision….we must recall the importance of Western vs Soviet, tho we don’t have hard numbers, and probably not till the end of the war, Western vehicles, are essential for allowing survivability of personnel. I do think that this preservation of personnel has far reaching consequences for Ukraine, for the validity of future conflicts, for the world to consider. I am not smart enough to write on it, but I do think consideration of this has more to be analyzed.

So I suspect this is what the UA may be building up to.  It would be the culmination of corrosive warfare.  We saw “infiltrate-isolate-annihilate-repeat” last fall to significant effect so the question is scale of this approach.  One thing missing from the academic criticisms is “why?”  The UA has demonstrated the ability to run two simultaneous operations, 500km apart, last fall.  “But over Xmas they forgot all that and are now penny packing Coy nibbles…silly Ukrainians”?  This is why I am convinced this is shaping.  By employing this probing and poking strategy they are obviously doing so for a reason.  Most likely to draw out RA HVT such as artillery.  These small scale nibblings are not designed to yield breakthroughs, they are designed to stress the RA system until a dispersed mass operation can be set in motion, which then may enable a more traditional mechanized breakout.  Ukraine is doing extra steps because that is how the battle space works.
As to the West, well the Taliban demonstrated that we are really no better than anyone else once you take away our advantages.  I suspect that warfare itself is evolving away from the advantages we had in many ways and we need to rethink things.  We do have the high ground on C4ISR for now.  However if we do not solve for force protection, particularly AirPower at all altitudes, we may find ourselves in serious trouble as other redefine the battle spaces.

But will it be as successful as the taking of Bakhmut
Or, hear me out, it all a lie. 🙂

This.  I've been working back in time for comparative analysis, as I don't believe the current power structures in modern Russia are actually modern. 
I had actually landed at the middle-late Byzantine Empire but your mention of chevauchees (a perfect word in itself, it's an excellent description of the Wagner March) leads me to France prior and during the Hundred years war.
The slow descent into constant violent negotiation between the Nobles and King,  with the King perceived as all-powerful to the hoi polloi but actually in hock to shifting alliances, has strong Russia 2023+ vibes. 
 
 

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

Do not get me wrong - the discussion on this forum has been positively scholarly and gentile compared to other corners of the internet right now.  I think we have some leanings among the group, some stronger than others.  I do tend to want to ensure that any discussion around stuff like this be given the broadest treatment possible.  So for example if we are going to start doing maths, let's do all the maths.  If we are going to argue for human security issues, lets call spades, 'spades' and underline the inconsistencies.  You will remember that I was just as hard on the whole warcrimes discussions that hijacked us last year.
The "firmly against DPICM" has not occurred here, it occurred places like my own government.  I am just not a fan of it taking root here without being challenged anymore than the even more distasteful topics we have had to cover.  I am firmly in JonS's camp on "why dumb DPICM, when we have HE PGM?"  Further, I am also in the "PGM DPICM with a 100% (or at least comparable to dumb HE) dud rates" camp.  The issue is that context appears to have changed and we should change with it.  When I start to hear "DPICM bad no matter what because it makes baby Jesus (or certain Canadian political parties) cry", that would be when I start to push back and call out hypocrisy when I see it.  There are weapons that should (and are) universally outlawed - chemical, biological and nuclear/radiation are at the top of that list.  
Finally my own biases are showing when I hear from preachy political parties that basically did nothing to deter Russia from this war, even after 2014, beyond harsh language and finger waving.  "But now that Ukraine is using cluster munitions well we had better speak up!"  How about we worry less about which munitions are being employed in a war and work harder on stopping the wars before they start in the first place?  Perhaps that is my preachy windmill on a hill of sand to tilt at.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

At this point I don't even consider the UXO DPICM situation worthy of argument. Very little, if any DPICM or general purpose cluster munitions are going to be used anywhere that Russia hasn't already placed hundreds if not thousands of AT and AP mines. Areas that will have to be demined post war ANYWAYS. Whatever unexploded DPICM remains will just be another part of the clean up.

If this was anything but a war of national,  cultural and societal survival, I'd understand the concerns. But it is.
Anything that can kill Russians quicker and in more numbers shortens the war.
The longer Russians are in Ukraine  the longer more Ukrainians will die.
The future daily cost of UXO is nothing compared to the current daily cost of soldiers and civilians killed. 
Ukraine needs to Kill & Maim as many Russians as possible right now. We've got a munition that can do that? Send it.