chris talpas

Fanciful speculation:
Putin seeing that things are looking less likely to end well for himself, quietly transfers a portion of his personal wealth to China.  During his visit with Xi, he decides he enjoys China so much that he will stay there and step down pre-emptively thus vastly improving his life expectancy.  
I would imagine other Russian operatives would be reluctant to mess with him in China.  China benefits internationally  from assisting in regime change that offers a pathway to de-escalation.
 

Since I can't give you a "Like" directly, I'll give you one from here 👍.

About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout.  Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.
Edit:  I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time.  Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes.  Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst.  So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.

Not to derail the thread …
if we want to decarbonize the energy grid, which global warming is driving us in that direction, then taking existing nuclear offline is not going to help us get there.
 

Not to derail the thread …
if we want to decarbonize the energy grid, which global warming is driving us in that direction, then taking existing nuclear offline is not going to help us get there.
 

Not to derail the thread …
if we want to decarbonize the energy grid, which global warming is driving us in that direction, then taking existing nuclear offline is not going to help us get there.
 

Seriously?  The MBT is now relegated to hiding in parking garages?  That is not an effective strategy.  First off they are now extremely limited in LOS (ie 2km from parking garages).  Second they cannot manoeuvre from said parking garage, so have become glorified parking garage pillboxes.  Third, infantry have a serious advantage in finding and hitting tanks in the parking garage.  Fourth, if that all fails, we already know where the parking garages are, thank you Google, so JDAMs for all - God keep this parking garage and all tanks who huddle in the parking garage.
Just reinforces my point.

Actually that and the HARM armed Migs is starting to look a good SEAD tag team especially if the A10 is armed with JASSM standoff missiles as well

I would exercise a lot of caution here:
-Someone says they are SOF - it is the internet buyer beware
-A SOF operator has expertise but does not have all the expertise.  In the west we have elevated these guys well beyond their actual jobs and skill sets.  The internet is filled with “bros” with SF tabs spewing a lot of garbage but because they have “SOF Combat Veteran” in the splash title page so they “must know all about logistics”.  
-BDA is a multidisciplinary activity, the US military has an actual trade occupation of “targeting”.  I would put far more stock in a targeteer assessment than a door-kicker.
- The fact that this was not a Direct Action (DA) mission was obvious from the start.  The idea that the UA sent in a 30 pers ground team that deep behind enemy lines, well out of range of support, in broad daylight is nonsense.  Further, the idea that they humped 1000-1500 lbs of HE is insane.  However, none of this eliminates the use of SOF in this, or any other attack.
- If this was SOF (and I say if, I do not know one way or the other, but I have a suspicion), it was likely a black bag sabotage job, or a complex attack.  If it were sabotage then they would have infiltrated the airfield, could have been local workers or even RA.  They would have placed and wired the charges onto large warheads - this is technical btw- and then either had a timer or an LOS controlled detonator.  The initial warheads hit very likely had enough NEQ to do the craters, and then set off the secondaries.  Again, IF, very hard to tell from Sat photos posted on twitter.
-This could have very well been ATACMS, a SOF/partisan loitering munition or combination of all that, without detailed assessment of the crater this is impossible to rule out.
- The lack of missile or drones on video streams for any of these weird “cigarette missions” is telling;however, also not definitive.  All we really know is that some very high value targets are being prosecuted beyond what we - and more importantly the Russians - thought was the maximum range of UA capability…and that is all good no matter how it happened.
 

So I totally get the impulse to unpack this attack, especially from a forum of - let's just say - "detail orientated" wargamers.  Kudos to those that continue to Zapruder this thing, and I am sure in time the details of how the UA pulled this off will come out (my bet is missile strike, but I would not rule out one helluva SOF black bag job - could be both in reality; complex attack).
But for all the lurkers out there I would recommend we all keep an eye on the follow-on impacts of this strike on a strategic and political level.  We bounced around this a few pages back but here are some thoughts:
- All war is communication and that is a complex concept of 'the message', 'the means to send the message', and 'the method of transmission'.  Every piece of those components in themselves create information that is interpreted in multiple dimensions.  For example Ukraine said things thru this attack that create certainty and uncertainty - in case the second one is the most powerful:
Ukraine stated, with certainty, that they can hit a high value target with extreme precision at 225km (at least) behind Russian lines.  I say 'extreme precision' because it appears they did more damage with the secondaries than the initial strikes, and that takes a very high level of precision in time and space.  This was not lobbing a missile at a target, they hit exactly where they needed to in order to create a very high profile "boom".  That is communicating 'capability' that I am pretty sure the Russians were sure they understood, right up until yesterday afternoon - based on the scrambling narratives in the Russian info sphere. Ukraine has clearly communicated intent.  If they wanted to hurt Russian airpower, they would have cratered the runway and then FASCAM'd the thing...but this was not about airpower.  They were signaling that they are coming for Crimea, and the Russians were not safe...anywhere.  This will likely create a lot of uncertainty in Russian thinking, as the pretty much figured they had Ukraine pinned down in the Donbas in a grinding war.  We talked about it before but this is strategic manoeuvre thru strike.  The kind of thing the US does by hitting Afghanistan from the other side of the world back on 2001 (https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf).  This was a high profile attack that both demonstrated and signaled intent and resolve in a very visible manner - that is certainty creating uncertainty in their enemy. I don't care how constipated the Russian political machine is, and it is already trying to spin this in crazy directions to blunt the message - they get that much.  No way to dodge it, this is very bad news for the Russians.  They have been relying on the narrative of "hopeless cause": Russian has 'escalation dominance', it can create a never-ending 'stalemate', it can and will fight forever...there is no way Ukraine can win: so stop spending your money in a pre-recession...look we even have Steven Segal!  This is clearly playing on the western psyche and our recent scars from places like Afghanistan. Ukraine just demonstrated that they can still hit a strategic target, with breathtaking precision, at the time and place of their choosing.  That directly attacks the Russian narrative.   Militarily, this type of attack creates enormous uncertainty.  The fact we have people on vacation on a beach watching this happen, and then blow it up all over social media, is a clear indication that Russia considered this area outside the warzone.  You can ignore or sidestep "industrial accidents" and the rash of weird fires we saw back in Mar-Feb, you can ignore HIMARs that hit your logistical system within 70-100kms.  You cannot ignore a strategic strike, that just happened in front of the entire world, at over twice that range.  The Russian military now needs to not only figure out how to secure itself at ranges it thought safe, it has to figure out how to defend Russian certainty, which just got seriously mauled. So what?  Well the first reaction will be "it was a lucky one off", and "this is war, these things happen".  However, information is funny with humans, we cannot un-think it.  As a minimum, Russian has to re-think the battlespace, significantly.  That is a lot of assumptions that just cracked in military planning - the fact that they did not see it coming in time to interdict is the biggest one.  Russians may try to ignore it, but I am betting western ISR is picking up a lot of scrambling going on in the Russian rear areas right now.  Again, this is more friction being imposed via uncertainty.  And that uncertainty will spread like a virus.  All those beach goers will scramble back home with it.  The Russian reaction will be key to determining just how badly this strike hurt them. 
Now the war is not over.  This was not positively decisive, at least not yet.  The UA will have to follow up with more of these, humans are also able to ignore reality - which is paradoxical I know.  More of these strikes will build up pressure until something gives.  But for the west, this is a clear demonstration that our proxy is not only still in this thing, it demonstrates they are getting better at it.  Better they are emulating warfare we recognize - high precision deep strikes on clear military targets with almost zero collateral civilian casualties.  Nice, clean and very western - worth investing more into.
I have heard at some pretty high levels the idea that "Russia has shifted this war into one that favors them"...well strikes like these send the message that Ukraine is shifting it back.  May have been a 'one-off' or a lucky day; however, it is going to cause the Russians a lot of hot and bother to figure that all out...and in a war, that is good communication.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/ukraine-win-war-us-stronger-weapons-russia/
What he said!

Some good analysis of the state of the central Asian republics in light of the Ukraine war
 

Not to take this thread on too far a tangent, but here is a short video giving the current state of the art in machine coding.  Also an interesting channel on AI development in general
 

Not to take this thread on too far a tangent, but here is a short video giving the current state of the art in machine coding.  Also an interesting channel on AI development in general
 

It is ridiculous that anyone would prioritize a PC wargame over the events we are seeing unfold on the ground in Ukraine.  These events have global impact - we have seen this already, and it is just the start, and merit staying informed about as much as possible.  Why?  Because if you live in a democracy in the western world, at some point you will be asked to use the phenomenal power of your vote to influence this war and it is your responsibility to understand what that means...or at least it should be.
The lack of sacrifice I am referring to is on anyone who is not willing to put aside hobbies and free time and actually devote that time to staying informed about this war as much as they are able.  Everyone on this thread is willing to put that work in, and yes, sacrifice time, in many cases money, and it at least one case volunteer for military service. These are very small sacrifices compared to what the average Ukrainian is going through (Haiduk's dedication and ability to keep us informed while his country is being torn apart is frankly humbling) but everyone here is at least willing to do that much, along with personal donations etc.  
Based on your posts, you are not even willing to sacrifice a distraction from a wargaming hobby.  Now, I do not know your personal circumstances - perhaps you are a humanitarian aid worker who has to deal with the cost of this war on a daily basis, and just want to come here to get away from it all.  I get that, but for the rest of us here this is where we go to put the time in and do our small part.
I appreciate the shout out for CMCW, we had a lot of fun doing that title and have future plans - trust me.  However, right now I would prefer you respect what is going on here as something more than a bunch of "war-porn voyeurism"; it is a communities' efforts to understand what is going on and support each other while it happens.  We did the same after 9/11, and Iraq '03, and Afghanistan, and the Crimea...and now the Russo Ukrainian War.  CM will be there after this war is over, it has survived a lot in the last 20 years, but for now this is bigger than my hobby.  If it is not based on your personal circumstances, hey we get that, however, there is no need to come here and make trouble for those that are just trying to sort through the mountains of information (good, bad, and ugly) and make sense of it.

I am not talking about CMCW (I do believe it is best CM game so far) because of an obvious lack of time. As soon as war is over, I will go to that subforum.
And my "obsession" with war stems from the fact that I wanted to leave my past in the past. But now my past is threatening my quiet European life and everything I stand for.  I cannot stop them with bullets but at least I will make their propaganda less successful, at least here. 

Hangs up Safari on laptop and phone, but loaded with Mozilla.  I'm not sure what page element was the problem, but Mozilla was blocking most of the embedded links.

Anyone else having problems with loading page 1019?  Other pages load fine but this one either hangs loading or gives a getpage error.
A shame since judging by the following pages that is where the big kaboom is initially reported
 

Anyone else having problems with loading page 1019?  Other pages load fine but this one either hangs loading or gives a getpage error.
A shame since judging by the following pages that is where the big kaboom is initially reported
 

Did you hear that noise in the video?  That's sound of many, many Ukrainian soldiers not dying this month.  So UKR hits this right when they start (alleged) big push to take the Kherson region back.  RU now has to rush more of it's limited resources across the bridge or face the offensive undergunned.  Yeah, that's making me happy.  I wonder how much ammo went up in this?  I guess we'll never know.
I suppose RU will try to use arty from the south side of the river, dang it.

A serious problem for Russians.

 

About as well as their bridging operations...🤣

Could be interesting to see how well the Russians execute an opposed amphibious operation 😉

I just realised. The Russians have put up barges with radar reflectors next to Kerch bridge and then tested our a smoke screen.
They are literally defending it with smoke and mirrors