How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Shoigu definitely back in play (I was skeptical that Putin purged him; he's too powerful in his own right)

https://eurasianet.org/order-restored-to-iranian-russian-relations-after-geopolitical-row

The article itself is kabuki.

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, fry30 said:

Just one man speaking here, but I'm strangely comfortable with it. 

Right? Personally I'm tired of not doing more.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Right? Personally I'm tired of not doing more.

Beyond the whole “let’s help em break Russia’s hands and face.” It is simply the right thing to do. Compared to the other blood and treasure messes in the last 30 years, this one actually makes sense.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Beyond the whole “let’s help em break Russia’s hands and face.” It is simply the right thing to do. Compared to the other blood and treasure messes in the last 30 years, this one actually makes sense.

Had a conversation with a smart guy recently who pointed out...they did it to us in Vietnam, we did it to them in Afghanistan, then they did it to us in Afghanistan and now we are returning the favor on a scale unseen in the modern rivalry between the two countries. It's not just right. It's tried and true.

[MikeyD]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Doesn't it seem that RU attacks are more and more and more often just mostly meat?

Well, meat is the logical conclusion to Steve's 'tanks are dead' assertions. You can't bring forward heavy armor because they're too vulnerable. By the same token, you also can't bring forward light armor or soft skin transport or anything on wheels or tracks that's liable to attract unwanted drone attention. So what's left besides penny packets of dispersed foot infantry moving forward as best they can, relying on their own drones and artillery to clear a path for them?

[chrisl]

On 9/18/2024 at 2:20 PM, Butschi said:

So maybe I'm a bit naive here but I imagine that within the context of a breaching operation, mobile mines might be much easier to solve for. I admit I don't know how you defect mines using drones in the first place. But anyway, given you want to keep a fairly limited amount of ground free of mines, like a number of lanes, isn't all you have to actually do keeping a few drones in the air that that monitor these lanes? If you are able to field a thousand drones to clear the lanes you will certainly be able to spare enough to monitor the cleared lanes. Now, while detecting mines may usually be complicated, I imagine detecting moving mines in an area you keep eyes on is much easier, as that should even be doable comparing camera images (instead of specialized sensors). This scenario at least seems much simpler than moving mines that crawl into all the places you can't keep monitoring.

I find two issue with using masses of drones for demining btw:

1. Although individual drones are small, massing thousands of drones, supplies and controlling equipment in a limited area is certain to picked up by an opponent. (Not to mention the force that is actually going to go through the minefield...) So you are kind of back to the problem that massing gets detected and probably stopped early. But maybe it is still easier to disperse?

2. I am convinced AI can do it but we are not really there just yet, I think. So, for now you'd have to coordinate lots of remote controlled drones. That doesn't sound so much fun. Plus, as this happens in a small area, jamming is really effective. 

 

I was reading further along through the thread to see if this came up before I posted.

Yes, it's easier to detect them if they move. You don't even need continuous coverage, so much as repeated coverage and the ability to coregister images.  If you can do continuous coverage it's much easier.  Optical detection of something that's low contrast and at the resolution limit is iffy (though it does seem that in some conditions and some wavelengths, mines have high contrast).  Detecting moving things is *much* easier - you're looking for changes.  You can detect things that are both low contrast and below the Rayleigh resolution limit if they're moving.

Re 1: It's almost certainly easier to make sure enough of your drones survive to clear a lane than it is to make sure your one big heavy metal thing survives.  More advanced drones should be able to do things like come in low, or through coverage, or even come in under cover of smoke.

Re 2: It's not really even AI.  ML can do it, especially if it's moving, but probably also if it's not.  ML might be susceptible to decoys.  Why would you use decoys, when more mines probably cost about the same?  because packing a lot of mines close together risks having one blow up its neighbors.  But it you have a lot of things that look like mines to the swarm, but only some are real mines, it makes it more expensive or slower or both for the breacher to clear the lane.

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Well, meat is the logical conclusion to Steve's 'tanks are dead' assertions. You can't bring forward heavy armor because they're too vulnerable. By the same token, you also can't bring forward light armor or soft skin transport or anything on wheels or tracks that's liable to attract unwanted drone attention. So what's left besides penny packets of dispersed foot infantry moving forward as best they can, relying on their own drones and artillery to clear a path for them?

Good point.  Lack of armor could be to preserve it, or because it aint there.  RU hasn't been very good about preserving, so I think it's a shortage.  But you might be right.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

"tis but a fleshwound!"  

[sburke]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

@Kraft recently posted a very good article on the Russian economy with a particular focus on how certain aspects have been manipulated, particularly the National Welfare Fund.  Rather than Russia being "just fine" it describes essentially a house of cards that may come due soon.  The full article is well worth a read.

Quote

 

To understand this, we need to look at the composition of the National Welfare Fund. It’s actually made up of a multitude of assets and securitized investments, investment accounts, and other bond investments. But 90 percent of its “face value” is actually based on two asset classes: shares in Russian companies and cash (gold and currency reserves). Of all the assets in the National Welfare Fund, only the cash can actually be used to bail out the state budget and finance the war. And this cash is evaporating.

On Jan. 1, 2022, the National Welfare Fund’s total assets stood at 13.565 trillion rubles, then 10.434 trillion on Jan. 1, 2023, and 11.965 trillion on Jan. 1, 2024. Apparently the fund’s face value moves very little, and after a drop in 2022, it finally went up again in 2023. Except that the amount shown for these reserves is fudged, especially if we look at the amount of liquid assets: 8.432 trillion rubles in 2022, 6.132 trillion in 2023, and 5.011 trillion in 2024. Russia has gone from $113 billion in reserves to $56 billion in two years (taking exchange rates into account). A year ago, the National Welfare Fund still held 10 billion euros, 310 billion yuan, and 554 metric tons of gold. By Jan. 1, 2024, there were no euros left (nor any hard currencies), 227 billion yuan, and 358 metric tons of gold.

By means of an accounting sleight of hand, Russia is disguising the fall in liquidity by adding shares in Russian companies in which the state has a stake. Between January 2022 and August 2023, the share of shares in Russian companies in the National Welfare Fund rose from 26 percent to 33 percent, while its face value remained more or less unchanged. By January 2024, this share had risen to 38 percent. Not only are these assets illiquid, but their real value is totally unverifiable and probably greatly overestimated: It’s hard to imagine, for example, that Aeroflot’s valuation hasn’t changed since 2021, which is what the National Welfare Fund accounts suggest.

 

Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow? - War on the Rocks

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by sburke

[sburke]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Shoigu definitely back in play (I was skeptical that Putin purged him; he's too powerful in his own right)

https://eurasianet.org/order-restored-to-iranian-russian-relations-after-geopolitical-row

The article itself is kabuki.

sure he isn't asking for asylum?