How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

15 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Meanwhile on the other side...
 

Its disturbing that such mutilation of AFU soldiers has become so common. Honestly f*ck these bastards. 

mutiliation of the dead is one thing, but rus units still do not take prisoners in kursk as a whole so there are for sure executions happening beyond the tiktok of an akhmat fighter.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

mutiliation of the dead is one thing, but rus units still do not take prisoners in kursk as a whole so there are for sure executions happening beyond the tiktok of an akhmat fighter.

The Russians think that being utterly awful will terrify people into submission. But that only works on people that can't shoot back. When you can shoot back it simply convinces you there is no other choice than shooting.

[Jiggathebauce]

Ukrainians should show POWs in captivity how their comrades are behaving in comparison. Perhaps they can feel shame?

[dan/california]

Quote   Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Ukraine War, 16 August 2024: Kursk Sarcastosaurus Aug 16     READ IN APP   Hello everybody! Yes, me again… and with Kursk again… but, there are simply enough new developments to ready a brief update. Indeed, so many, I’ve got to update my map, too (probably before I have to zoom it out again)… Of course, and like always when it comes to this operation, I can’t but start with another POW-postcard: Really friendly people, these Russians of the 18th Border Guard Battalion FSB, visible on a video taken by the 80th Airborne right at the start of its trip into the Kursk Oblast, back on 6 August: came out and waved with their hands up and with white handkerchiefs as soon as Ukrainian were there… of course, they didn’t surrender by dozens: that’s fake news…   *** AIR/MISSILE WARFARE -          Multiple Russian air defence positions and the ports of Kerch, Feodosia and Sevastopol have been heavily hit the last night. Details are still streaming in… -          A video surfaced showing the wreckage of the VKS Ka-52 attack helicopter shot down by Ukrainians on 10 August in south-western Kursk. This is now the 2nd confirmed (out of 3 reported by the Russians). *** SOUTH-WESTERN KURSK -          Glushkovo sector: one might find it silly, but thanks to their own PRBS-industrialists, it’s only today that the Russians have figured out they’ve lost Snagost – and that already some 4-5 days ago… Makes me wonder how long they might take to find out they’ve lost Vnezapnoe, too… Actually, the 103rd TD (and reinforcements) is meanwhile… well… ‘well to the west of Snagovo’ (and Vneznapoe). The bridge in Glushkovo (over the Seym River) has been hit (by JDAMs) once again (think, this was the third or fourth time), and RUMINT has it that this strike rendered it useless: AFAIK, there are two other bridges on the Seym, both further west. That’s including one in Zvanoe and one in Karyzh: reportedly, the one in Zvanoe was hit this morning, too. If all three are disabled, the remaining Russians in the Glushkovsky District (remnants of 17th and 18th Border Guard Battalions FSB, plus thousands of civilians in the process of being forcefully evacuated), are all cut off from the rest of Russia. -          Korenovo: a column of VSRF’s reinforcements moving from Rylsk towards Korenovo was demolished – probably by JDAMs, the last night. That said, it would have arrived too late, because not only is Tolpino under ZSU control: Kolychevka too. With this, the Russian garrison in Korenovo is cut off from Rylsk. That said, it’s not like much of the town is still in Russian hands. Actually, it’s just its western side. Ah yes… you might need some map to follow all of that (and what is to follow)… -          North/North-East of Korenovo: Aleksandrovka is also under ZSU control: actually used as a base for lots of raids further north (to Rylsk, to Lgov… and beyond: traffic on the E38 from Kursk to Rylsk was interrupted in at least four different points, this morning alone). While time and again one or another of ZSU’s MRAPs gets detected on time and hit, in grand total, whenever well-combined with UAVs, these raids are wreaking havoc with the Russian planning. They’re, regularly, hitting them entirely unprepared. Here a typical example for results. In one of latest cases, yesterday, somebody (from the ZSU) overrun a batter part of one of ex-Wagner PMC battalions. Smashed them shortly after their arrival and as they were bunched together to prepare for their coming mission. Lots of the Russian social media is in tears now… A Russian MT-LB APC knocked out during the fighting in south-western Kursk, two days ago. -          Lgov-Kromskie Byki: the 11th VDV (and assigned elements of diverse VSRF units) has been kicked out of Olyovka and Durovka….actually, the campers found they’ve got urgent business to do further north, so that the entire area from (at least) around Yuzhnyi via Dyakovka to Volzhin and Kauchuk is now under ZSU control. I’m only not sure if the Russians have already advanced from Kromskie Byki to Kurks or not… or perhaps they’re so kind to wait for the ZSU to sack them there (because there’re certainly Ukrainian troops further north along the road to Lgov).   -          Bolshesoldatskoe: sure, there are lots of Russian troops (my estimate is at around 5,000, perhaps more, meanwhile) deployed along the line Durovo - Bobrik (which might be under the ZSU control, meanwhile), Rzhava (unclear), Bolshoe Soldatskoe (unclear), down to Birukovka (VSRF) and Budishche (VSRF). But, the ZSU is causing them lots of troubles by regular raids all the way to Shagarovo, Izvekovo and similar places. As noted on the map above, I’ve got no clear idea if there’s a ‘coherent frontline’ in that area, not any other ideas about what exaclty is going on there, but: gauging by what I hear about the chaos in the Russian lines, I doubt anybody there is constructing any kind of field fortifications. The FSB is still busy controlling those under construction along the E38… -          Malyi Kamenets & Komunar: this area is where I ‘guess’ there is meanwhile the biggest concentration of the Russian troops in south-western Kursk Oblast. Alone because there are so many of them still fleeing from Sudzha, Ulanok and Belitsa (all firmly under ZSU control). And because the two Akhmat regiments deployed there are busy stopping and sending back all the Russians that are not entirely enthusiastic about defending Motherland Russia… Another big concentration of the VSRF should be in the Belaya area, as expected. In between of that place and the Ukrainian border = everything’s under the ZSU control.   Saractosaurus is usually a pessimist. This update is uhm NOT pessimistic.

 

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Ukrainians should show POWs in captivity how their comrades are behaving in comparison. Perhaps they can feel shame?

The only reason russian POWs aren't doing the same is because they are POWs.

[Jiggathebauce]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

The only reason russian POWs aren't doing the same is because they are POWs.

I know your strong feelings on the matter, but there does seem to be a fundamental difference between the type of Russian soldier willing to surrender versus the ones that kill themselves instead. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Its truly wonderful to see the AFU gain more and more advanced weaponry to do this. 

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I know your strong feelings on the matter, but there does seem to be a fundamental difference between the type of Russian soldier willing to surrender versus the ones that kill themselves instead. 

Facing a life/death choice is a different thing from not facing it.
The ones who got to make a life choice - realize they need to stay alive to be able to murder, rape and loot in the future and being dead kinda prevents one from doing that.

[Jiggathebauce]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

Facing a life/death choice is a different thing from not facing it.
The ones who got to make a life choice - realize they need to stay alive to be able to murder, rape and loot in the future and being dead kinda prevents one from doing that.

Once again, your hatred of every single one of them is noted. it's pretty much the only thing you post about. 

[billbindc]

25 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Its truly wonderful to see the AFU gain more and more advanced weaponry to do this. 

Is it just me or does it seem like a pretty huge deal that UA is able to do fixed wing strikes likes in Kursk oblast?

[kimbosbread]

I agree with Kraze, and would go further. Make the POWs erect an Aztec pyramid, put a fighting disc and at the top, and make them fight 1:1 to the death, and ppv it to fund for drones.

EDIT: Treating Russian prisoners like people doesn’t seem to encourage surrender that often. Otherwise we’d have seen more of it in the past.

Edited August 16 by kimbosbread

[FancyCat]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Is it just me or does it seem like a pretty huge deal that UA is able to do fixed wing strikes likes in Kursk oblast?

Right?!?

From Summer 2022 when we were eagerly waiting for images of holes in the Antonivka Bridge for weeks on end from HIMARS, to a whole span in a one go? One off mission and I've not compared the differences between each bridge but what a positive indicator.

[ArmouredTopHat]

17 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I agree with Kraze, and would go further. Make the POWs erect an Aztec pyramid, put a fighting disc and at the top, and make them fight 1:1 to the death, and ppv it to fund for drones.

EDIT: Treating Russian prisoners like people doesn’t seem to encourage surrender that often. Otherwise we’d have seen more of it in the past.

There are reasons for that though.

The Russian assaults in the Donbas are tightly controlled saturated battlefields, the attacking troops tend to get killed before they even have a chance to surrender. Those who try to surrender have often been killed by the Russians as they do so. (seen more than a few anecdotal accounts of that) We know the Russians literally use barrier troops (for lack of a better term) in order to enforce attacks. Which is why so few of the storm units ever make it back. Its fight or die for the Russians and they just send in the next wave of meat.

The odd lucky bastard does cross the line, but most POWs seem to be taken when Ukraine does small offensives actions or counter attacks. Drones further complicate the surrender process. Its hard to surrender to a munition. 

This does not of course explain the high rate of those who kill themselves or fight to the death, I suppose much like the Nazi regime, there are a fair few in Russia who truly buy all the moronic propaganda. Or they are guilty of horrible crimes and might get identified after being taken prisoner. 

Compare this to Kursk, where there is a lot more freedom to move and AFU are properly on the attack. They can surround and easily force groups to surrender, especially as they are often conscripts who really do not seem to have too much of a will to fight.

Edited August 16 by ArmouredTopHat

[FancyCat]

Reminder Russia has never allowed international humanitarian missions into Russian occupied territory.

Quote

Aug 16 (Reuters) - Ukraine has set up storage facilities in its northern region of Sumy to hold and send humanitarian aid to Russian civilians in the Kyiv-held part of Russia's western region of Kursk, the interior minister said on Friday.

Kyiv officials have said they plan to create evacuation corridors from the Kursk region and to open access to international humanitarian missions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sends-humanitarian-aid-occupied-part-russias-kursk-region-2024-08-16/

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Once again, your hatred of every single one of them is noted. it's pretty much the only thing you post about. 

They carry and use murder weapons in their hands, not flowers. Trying to tell the difference between two people that desire to kill you works best when you are a few thousand km away from said people, I also understand why you have this luxury.

[Jiggathebauce]

10 minutes ago, kraze said:

They carry and use murder weapons in their hands, not flowers. Trying to tell the difference between two people that desire to kill you works best when you are a few thousand km away from said people, I also understand why you have this luxury.

There is an obvious distinction between the soldiers being used to prosecute this war and the conscripts who are a political liability to the regime and clearly unmotivated to resist even when their own side of the border is invaded. 

I have the same luxury as you apparently, for someone so gung ho about killing Russians you don't seem to be any closer to doing so than I am. 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

mutiliation of the dead is one thing, but rus units still do not take prisoners in kursk as a whole so there are for sure executions happening beyond the tiktok of an akhmat fighter.

They captured several our soldiers, also was one anecdotical incident - Russians captured two our guys, but during escorting them have find themselves in encirclment, so they brought them back to probable deployment of our troops and they surrenderred - there was a video from the drone.

Episode with decapitated UKR soldier, according to DeepState was likley filmed Aug 12th in Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod oblast. There were reports about heavy clashes there and in neighbour village, but likley Russians counter-attacked and pushed our groups back. Reportedly they cut heads of several our killed soldiers. As if already known the callsign of commander, who gave order to this "Pushkar' ". Some thoughts, no one man from 155th brigade will not be taken as POW. 

 

[Haiduk]

Who did this again? )

 

[Beleg85]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

They captured several our soldiers, also was one anecdotical incident - Russians captured two our guys, but during escorting them have find themselves in encirclment, so they brought them back to probable deployment of our troops and they surrenderred - there was a video from the drone.

Episode with decapitated UKR soldier, according to DeepState was likley filmed Aug 12th in Kolotilovka border checkpoint in Belgorod oblast. There were reports about heavy clashes there and in neighbour village, but likley Russians counter-attacked and pushed our groups back. Reportedly they cut heads of several our killed soldiers. As if already known the callsign of commander, who gave order to this "Pushkar' ". Some thoughts, no one man from 155th brigade will not be taken as POW. 

155 Marine Brigade, one of least fortunate units in the army. They did war crimes as well in Ivankiv if I recall, before they were mauled near Kyiv and then mauled royally again at Vuhledar.

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Who did this again? )

 

These kind of memes make me highly uncomfortable. Why play up a connection to the Wehrmacht when the other side’s information operations already paint Ukraine and NATO as Nazi Germany 2.0?

[chuckdyke]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

A real increase in surrenders is how Ukraine wins this war. Russian POWS need to be eating good borscht, and watching soccer games. It seems wrong, but that is the winning play here. 

I agree the reason the Germans rather surrendered to the Western Allies instead of surrendering to the Soviets. Also NATO support may have some protocols and caveats which we can only speculate about. 

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

These kind of memes make me highly uncomfortable.

Yes X is not Twitter anymore. I deactivated my account when a previous banned person got his account back. Lies are their definition of Free Speech. 

[Lethaface]

16 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That’s an understatement. The Germans will get as much cooperation from Poles as the Austro-Hungarians did from the Serbian government in the enquiry against the assassins of archduke Ferdinand. 

I think not everyone in Germany is keen on public investigation on the matter either. But I guess the die has been cast, we'll see whether it will roll anywhere.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Some interesting footage from presumably the first day at Kursk. Note the tank contributing to that first hefty surrender with some point blank 125mm gunfire. Certainly one way to convince them to throw in the towel. 

[keas66]

42 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

These kind of memes make me highly uncomfortable. Why play up a connection to the Wehrmacht when the other side’s information operations already paint Ukraine and NATO as Nazi Germany 2.0?

When the other side is decapitating  corpses of your own  ( dead ) soldiers  ?