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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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None of us know whether RU has a breaking point that could realistically be reached.  But I think we can say there are definitely some cracks showing.....

For so long I've been thinking it doesn't matter about RU losses because UKR can't do anything to take advantage of it, at least for 2024.  But I am thinking I might have been rather hasty in that thinking.  

UKR has spare forces to attack north of Sumy?  And allegedly a second group a little ways away near Rylsk (sp?)?   I am gonna need more popcorn, as wise folks on this forum have often said.

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1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1end3z9/part_1_of_2_robert_madyar_of_ukraines_414th/

[Part 1 of 2] Robert Madyar, of Ukraine's 414th Strike UAV Battalion ("Madyar's Birds") drone team, narrates strikes on Russian artillery positions between August 1-6, hitting 22 enemy artillery pieces with FPV strike drones just over that span of time. (YT link in comments) Published August 8, 2024

There is so much to see in these two videos:

  1. They are deliberately targeting the barrels because that's the critical bit.  Tires, carriages, breach blocks, etc. can all be repaired/replaced fairly easily, but barrels are in limited supply.
  2. They have both the time and the opportunity to do this.  I presume because the presence of drones has caused the crews to run away.
  3. After FPV #1 has detonated they send FPV #2 in to confirm the barrel has a hole melted in it.  That gives an extremely accurate accounting of the effectiveness of their targeting.
  4. If FPV #2 doesn't see a hole, then it makes one.  Presumably FPV #3 goes to see if #2 did the trick.
  5. If the follow up FPV sees the hole, then it moves on to attack another target.

All of this is important stuff.  None of it was possible before FPVs.  I'm still amazed by all of this

Steve

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1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

None of us know whether RU has a breaking point that could realistically be reached.  But I think we can say there are definitely some cracks showing.....

Certainly the breaking point was reached for these guys.  Two videos of the same mass surrender event:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1endrp3/popularlyshared_video_today_reportedly_shows_50/

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1emyyb6/russian_soldiers_surrendering_at_the_entrance_to/

Steve

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

No matter what this operation may or may not be, one thing is for sure is it is making for very interesting videos for Russian citizens to watch while contemplating how good Putin is at managing their country

As is widely noted, this is the first time since WWII that foreign troops have invaded Russia.

Note that these displaced Russians are making a direct appeal to the Czar (if the translation is accurate), per Russian tradition.  What happens when he can't respond?
 

 

Edited by acrashb
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U.S affirms cross-border attacks are possible with U.S weapons, but not long-range attacks, with vagueness on the range. I've quoted a section where she is asked whether the U.S is worried about escalation. 

Quote

Q: Yeah. Thanks. So, just on the Ukraine attacks into Russia, are you concerned that Russia will escalate tensions over this attack, including with the US, nuclear threats, anything like that?

SABRINA SINGH: No, because at the end of the day, Ukraine is fighting for its sovereign territory that its neighbor invaded. So, if we want to de-escalate tensions, as we've said

from the beginning, the best way to do that is Putin can make that decision today to withdraw troops from Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to do everything it can to continue to take back its sovereign territory. And that's what we're seeing they're doing in this — what you're referring to in this, you know, Kursk Oblast. We're going to continue to support Ukraine with the capabilities and the systems that they need. We don't feel like this is escalatory in any way. Ukraine is doing what it needs to do to be successful on the battlefield.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3867296/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-conference/

 

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19 minutes ago, acrashb said:

As is widely noted, this is the first time since WWII that foreign troops have invaded Russia.

Note that these displaced Russians are making a direct appeal to the Czar (if the translation is accurate), per Russian tradition.  What happens when he can't respond?
 

 

Anybody else amused by the irony of the shirt on the left?  Really... you're not sorry YET?

Steve

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5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody else amused by the irony of the shirt on the left?  Really... you're not sorry YET?

Steve

She's balanced by a woman in blue on the opposite side wearing shirt and shorts with "I am" on them.

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Now for the reaping.  There's a couple of pics and a clip in the thread so probably accurate in so far as something is burning.  No pics of exactly what just yet.

Quote

Earlier tonight, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian column roughly 30km behind the current frontline in Kursk Oblast. 

The Russian column, moving on the E38 highway in Oktyabrskoe, was reportedly hit by a missile strike, losing multiple vehicles.

 

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6 minutes ago, Fenris said:

NFI if this is real, obviously, but nice example of Ukrainian people's pluck if true.

Edit - one more tweet that made me smile

 

 

The idea, the mere IDEA, of Ukrainian flags flying over Russian government buildings in Russia must be quite a shocking thing for Russians to experience.

And yes, Ukraine should put out messages that they are going to annex parts of Russia and have everybody learn to speak Ukrainian.  Because, after all, they are all one people.

Steve

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3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The idea, the mere IDEA, of Ukrainian flags flying over Russian government buildings in Russia must be quite a shocking thing for Russians to experience.

And yes, Ukraine should put out messages that they are going to annex parts of Russia and have everybody learn to speak Ukrainian.  Because, after all, they are all one people.

Steve

We are having to much fun with this, MORE PLEASE!

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13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The idea, the mere IDEA, of Ukrainian flags flying over Russian government buildings in Russia must be quite a shocking thing for Russians to experience.

And yes, Ukraine should put out messages that they are going to annex parts of Russia and have everybody learn to speak Ukrainian.  Because, after all, they are all one people.

Steve

TBH this seems like the kind of video I would disseminate as propaganda if I was Ukraine.

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5 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

TBH this seems like the kind of video I would disseminate as propaganda if I was Ukraine.

Yup, but I'd also not be at all surprised if Ukrainian soldiers were telling Russian citizens that they should prepare to be referrendum'd.  In fact, if I were there I would say "be prepared for a referendum that is as free and fair as the ones you have conducted in our country.  Which is to say we already know that 95% of you have already approved of becoming Ukrainian and speaking Ukrainian".

Steve

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22 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is scorched earth a legitimate tactic before you withdraw? This is what I would do if I was the Ukrainian army. Give my engineers something to do. 

Other than destroying anything vaguely like military equipment, they would be better off stealing (or krazy gluing stuck) the keys on every keyboard needed to type "Putin".  And maybe leave a bunch of "Zelenskyy was here" stickers on things.

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