How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

I am skipping some part to make it shorter.

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

Haiduk just posted a perfect example of what we have seen again and again…RA attack detected early and engaged.

• You recently witnessed how RU surprised UKR during second Kharkiv offensive quickly overrunning UKR forward position. UKR command failed both detect and engage early. They could but they failed.
• UKR command failed to both detect and engage early February Avdiivka Assault I was talking about
• UKR command failed to both detect and engage early November initial RU mechanized assault on Avdiivka 

You are in denial. Your usually excuse is UKR knew RU were coming means no surprise were achieved. But in reality in cases above (and many other others) both side failed many times to understand what spotting reports meant and as result failed to engage early.

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

Now some sources:

https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-return-of-the-tactical-crisis/

Have you read your quotes? They all talk about battlefield ISR. I am talking about battlefield ISR. You are talking about magical Operational and Strategic ISR.

Basically they all say the same as me - due to drones you will be detected immediately on the battlefield and suffer catastrophic losses if dare to concentrate. You just very loosely interpret them to fit your theory. 

I do not need to interpret what experts say - I read straight from horse mouth. What if I tell you that during  RU assault on Avdiivka Industial zone they were able to drive tank regiment to within few km of front line with no losses from anything but tactical FPV drones? Let's read RU Nat horse:

Quote

As a very vivid and thorough example, I'd like to use the assault of the Avdiivka industrial zone during the final offensive operation, which began on October 10th of last year. This is how one of the direct participants on behalf of our infantry explains the role of tanks in connection to the [assault of] Industrial zone: if not for the tankers with their tanks, we would not have captured it...at the same time and in the same place, it was the tank regiment that decided the matter...

Tanks were effectively a combination of self-propelled guns and assault guns, operating separately [from infantry] but precisely to support infantry assault operations...and the assault groups received the command to go only after the tanks had worked and left [firing positions]. Or they [tanks] didn't leave. Because they were destroyed regularly. Specifically, the main losses were from kamikaze drones.

A lot to digest but key (for us) points:

• RU brough and operated tank regiment in vicinity of frontline (something you said impossible to do)
• RU tank regiment suffered no significant losses from anything but FPV drones (means they were neither detected no engaged early - something you said is impossible)
• RU tank regiment suffered catastrophic losses from FPV operating on front line (exactly as I said previously)

I know what I am talking about. You....

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

First, explain the notable lack of surprise in this war.

• UKR first Kharkive offensive - complete surprise
• UKR second offensive - operational surprise that panicked RU command to the point they blew up dam and drowned their own soldiers
• RU initial mech assault on Avdiivka - it was surprise for UKR 
• RU final infantry assault in February - it was surprise for UKR

You are in denial. I showed you quote of UKR main military expert about how UKR command was caught with pants down and you dismissed it as incompetent opinion!

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

Second, the continued trend towards dispersion and lack of conventional concentration.

I explained it many time - devastating drone adjusted arty and strike drones operating over battlefield. No data exists supporting magical operational eyes and wonder strikes on logistics or AFV columns. I do not deny their existence, I deny wonder effect from them. Disruption they cause is important but not that devastating. 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

Third, how deep strike has been so effective.

Effective at what? Hitting some importnat targets and causing wide spread disruption. Yes, they are effective. Mostly due to RU incompetence and crappy AA. 

Are they effective at destroying maneuver elements? Nope.  

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

 And fourth, why manoeuvre above company level is effectively dead.

Because as I said on the battlefield drones and drones adjusted arty hit hard:

• Anything above buddy team
• Anything above 1-2 vehicles

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

 Now try to explain all that without turning to the ISR situation that is shaping these battlefields.

Capt, you are assuming I am like you. That I need to explain it. I do not. I can read what horse says and I know where to go to read it.

Summarizing the experience of the southern wing of the SMO until April 2024

2. An officer who took part in the battles since the beginning of the SMO said that the largest offensive actions of our troops in which he had to take part included the use of about 15 tanks and 30 infantry fighting vehicles. The use of large groups of [armored] vehicles was abandoned for two reasons: a) the active use of remote mining systems by the enemy directly during the [battle], b) the rapid concentration of artillery fire on concentrations of armored vehicles.

Suprise - no magical operational ISR, no wonder deep strikes, no logistical challenges. Just increased lethality of current weapons due to tactical drone-based ISR (it was before introduction of FPV drones).  

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

Finally, ask yourself “what happens if the US withdraws all to ISR support?”  The impact of that alone should give you a pretty good idea of where we are at.

UKR army uses commercial ICEYE satellites. Literally. They literally bought ICEYE satellite for UKR army.

Reznikov (former UKR defense minister) quote

As everyone probably remembers, thanks to donations from Ukrainians, the Ukrainian defense forces gained access to information from a group of ICEYE satellites. One satellite is fully operational for the needs of our defense, and almost two dozen more are involved when necessary. When in June the Ministry of Defense proposed to direct the funds raised for the purchase of Bayractars to strengthen space reconnaissance assets, we expected a qualitative increase in the capabilities of our troops. All our expectations have been fully met.

 

On 7/26/2024 at 1:15 PM, The_Capt said:

[Edit:  And I call utter BS on Adiivka. This was a 4 month grinding nightmare that fell due to old fashion attrition…not some bizarre “surprise” theory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka_(2023–2024)]

The operation I was talking about is described in Wiki starting from this paragraph:

In early February 2024, Russian troops followed up the southern breakthrough with a second breakthrough in northern Avdiivka. By 2 February, Russian forces had mostly captured the city's northeast dacha area up to the northeast segments of Pionerska Street and Zaliznychnyi Lane.[162] On 4–6 February, they advanced several hundred meters along the forested lake area north of Sapronova Street, reaching the northernmost segment of Donetska Street, and likely capturing most of Michurina Lane. It was also reported that Russian forces had approached the railway line just north of the railway bridge and advanced towards the north shore of the flooded sand quarry. Foggy weather and a lack of Ukrainian shells reportedly contributed to the success of the Russian advance.[164][165][158] Meanwhile, Russian sources reported further advances into southeastern Pervomaiske.[165]

Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov reported the situation in the city had become critical and the 110th Mechanized Brigade was exhausted.

The final assault I was talking about started around 8-9 is described in section Fighting in central Avdiivka and across the railroad (8 – 14 February 2024). 

This second breakthrough in northern Avdiivka was complete surprise for URK command. Within 10 days of the start of the that operation, and with in mere days of final assault Avdiivka fell. 

[chuckdyke]

Philippines a stubby is still less than a .50 Euro and not bad at all. 

[Yet]

main stream (good media) picked this up. Didnt see it here yet though. 

 

ukrainian drone attacks the propellor of a russian drone with a stick.

Oekraïense drone met stok filmt aanval op Russische drone

https://www.nu.nl/310197/video/oekraiense-drone-met-stok-filmt-aanval-op-russische-drone.html (via @NUnl)

 

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, Grigb said:

You recently witnessed how RU surprised UKR during second Kharkiv offensive quickly overrunning UKR forward position. UKR command failed both detect and engage early. They could but they failed.

Going to stop you right there.  We saw here on this thread that the UA saw the build up but 1) could not react due to restrictions on strikes in Russia and 2) were desperately undermanned and dislocated.  You are painting “surprise” where in fact they were simply unable to react quickly due to resource constraints.  Then once they did that entire offensive was choked off and failed after 10-15 kms.

48 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Have you read your quotes? They all talk about battlefield ISR. I am talking about battlefield ISR. You are talking about magical Operational and Strategic ISR.

Basically they all say the same as me - due to drones you will be detected immediately on the battlefield and suffer catastrophic losses if dare to concentrate. You just very loosely interpret them to fit your theory. 

I do not need to interpret what experts say - I read straight from horse mouth. What if I tell you that during  RU assault on Avdiivka Industial zone they were able to drive tank regiment to within few km of front line with no losses from anything but tactical FPV drones? Let's read RU Nat horse:

This makes no sense.  Battlefield ISR is directly linked into Operational and Strategic ISR…it is freakin 2024, not 1972.

And again, you are agreeing with me here.  I fully agree that drone ISR is making concentration impossible, however, the part you are missing is that “battlefield” ISR is being queued by operational and strategic ISR of the highest resolution in human history.  The main problem with your theory is that if drones are the sole reason for “battlefield ISR” the if a side can push back or stop the drones then surprise and freedom of movement is possible….but it ain’t.

I do not debate in the least that drone ISR has a major impact but you are missing a massive C4ISR architecture effecting the entire battlefield. You appear to think that tactical ISR is all there is and I can tell you “straight from the horses mouth” that this is simply not true.

At this point I am not even sure why we are arguing.  We both agree that ISR is shaping this war, it is a question of how that ISR is being delivered.  Right now the US military has likely the highest concentration of ISR assets over any region since Iraq in 03 and we have developed a lot more assets since then. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/#:~:text=Number of satellites in orbit - major countries 2022&text=Of the 5%2C465 active artificial,China%2C accounting for only 541.) That ISR is 1) very high resolution and 2) pretty much everywhere.  Nothing larger than a company is staging or moving without being picked up and handed off to the UA.  All those tactical feeds link up with the Operational/Strategic in TOCs all over Ukraine.

Russia has built its own complex. It is nowhere near as effective as the US backbone but it gets the job done. You keep quoting sources that all pretty much note the same thing: lack of resources not information. This is heartbreaking as the UA is very likely watching the RA mass up and advance in areas but cannot do anything about it.

To summarize, peace on drone ISR…it has completely changed warfare.  But you are simply mistaken if you believe that is the only ISR in this game.  Take the hint and trust me in this one and let’s leave it at that.  This is very good news for Ukraine by the way as it means that so long as US C4ISR is in place, the UA is enabled in protecting  an 800km frontage with the lowest troop densities in the history of modern warfare…while attriting the hell out of the RA.

Given you are getting almost all your information from the tactical levels it is not surprising that you landed on your current views. For example, logistics strikes do not simply “buy time” the restrict options.  The major reason we have not seen a RA breakout is that long logistics lines needed to sustain a deep manoeuvre are also impossible due to all the conditions you have noted.

Basically, I do not disagree with what you are saying…it is the math you used to get there that has led you to a skewed view.  You can choose to believe me or not.  Over time the full picture of US background support will be made public, hopefully sooner than later once this war is over.

[Edit.  Going to add some reading - 

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AEtherJournal/Journals/Volume-3_Number-1/Dickey_Gleason.pdf

https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/role-space-domain-russia-ukraine-war (this one is good as it outlines what commercial is doing alone)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/11/ukraine-us-intelligence-sharing-war/

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/airpower-after-ukraine/early-lessons-from-the-russia-ukraine-war-as-a-space-conflict/

https://www.key.aero/article/role-nato-isr-aircraft-are-playing-monitoring-war-ukraine

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/lessons-royal-navys-future-operations-black-and-red-sea]

 

 

Edited July 28 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

• I do not have exact information about the payoff, but given his status, he most likely received some immediate payment. At the same time he unlikely to receive any significant life long payments (stipulated by the law). These payments supposed to come from local authorities who do not have much money themselves. He will get some small pension to buy some vodka and bread. And that's about it. 
• Unlikely. He is not that popular and too crippled. You must be very close to Guardian propagandists to get anything of real value. 
• Except for some local vet groups, which will arrange for his visits to schools on remembrance days, he will largely be forgotten.

Thanks again for bringing some information to us that we probably would not have found on our own.  It is definitely true that research is hobbled by language barriers, even in the age of instant information and decent computer translations.

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

I explained it many time - devastating drone adjusted arty and strike drones operating over battlefield. No data exists supporting magical operational eyes and wonder strikes on logistics or AFV columns. I do not deny their existence, I deny wonder effect from them. Disruption they cause is important but not that devastating. 

Oh and jumping onto this:

Are you seriously suggesting deep precision strike has been nothing more than an “annoyance”?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Beyond the fact that the UA is continuously asking for deep strike assets, and used them to crippling effects in Fall of ‘22 on RA logistics leading to two operational collapses.  We can see from the kill count no less than 284 command posts, coming up on 1000 guns and MLRS and 3500 logistics vehicles…and these are only the ones we can confirm via open source media.

Your problem is that you are sourcing this war from tactical commanders on the front line…you say so yourself. Of course they are not going to be focusing on the deep battle, they have their hands full.  This is creating a skewed view of the battlefield which you are promoting here.  Deep strikes are breaking the brains and guys of the RA leaving them unable to mass or sustain mass.  Continuous ISR means any concentrations are picked well back and handed off to tactical systems to handle (guns and FPVs).  In that one document I cite it is note that “the US is handing off space based intelligence 32 times a day).  That is less than an hour between queues….do the math.  How long does it take to stage a Battalion sized element?  How long to move it up to start line?  How long to advance to contact.  I can tell you from direct personal experience….more than an hour.

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Such a creature does not give up that impulse just because we invent the Thigh Master.

Hence the role of sports.  Orwell, once again, was spot-on: "Serious sport is ... war minus the shooting".  

So give people enough bread and circuses and perhaps we can avoid subversive civil war.  Perhaps the Romans were on to something.

 

[Haiduk]

Heavy sitauation in Krasnohorivka. During last day Russians have been conducting continous mechanized assault of UKR positions in norhern part of this town. Pressure is too heavy and big advantage in personnel, our forces stepped back from many positions, but the defense is cotninuing

Russians in one of video claimed that they "did some trick, which zeroed a dominance of UKR FPVs in the sky" and this let them "steamed forward". From our side wasn't any mentions about this, and allegedly FPVs are still in work. But it's pointed out Russian more and more use new FPVs with 400-500 MHz range, which can't can't supress most of existing models of "trench EW" (though Russians complained about such rannge UKR FPVs too). Also some our TG reported Russians became to practice dropping of 400 MHz FPV from Orlan, which can fly far to our rear. And these FPVs unexpectedly attack our vehciles in the rear - in this case Orlan play a role of transmitter.

Example of artillery strike on Russian armored column, assaulting Krasnohorivka

 

Edited July 28 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Preliminary inside about recent ATACAMS strike on Novofedorivka airfield and Shelkovicnoye village area (radar site): 8 ATACMs launched, two were shot down, one missile probably failed and impacted northern of airfield.

As minimum two Su-30SM fighters of 43rd  naval assualt aviation regiment were hit (destroyed or badly damaged), ammo dump was destroyed, command point of airfield AD was hit, inflicting death of two officres and wounduing of other four. Near Shelkovichnoye village newest radar complex "Nebo" was hit

Yestrday next ATACMS struk on Luhansk oblast during lining-up of personnel of 228th MRR of 90th TD on training range, causing 19 dead and 71 wounded

 

This night UKR drones hit oil storeage in Kursk oblast, setting of fire three fuel tanks.

[Haiduk]

On 7/26/2024 at 7:27 PM, ArmouredTopHat said:

The strain continues to deepen

The lack of unqualified workforce Russian authority recently tried to compencate by inviting of cheap-to-hire migrants from Central Asia countries. But now it plays as additional factor of rising tensions - more and more Russians issued a footages that even some quarters of prospering Moscow and St.Petersberg look like some Muslim state - in the schools in prymary classes Muslim kids already are the majority and their behavior to Slavic kids became more and more unfriendly and insolent. More and more conflicts - from whose kids will play on house playground to sits in city transport. Knowing natural Russian chauvinsm, their treat migrants also far from tolerance and also adding a fuel to the fire. But this is only against Cental Asia migrants - when Russian encounters with Chechen or Dagestanian, he usually chosen to shut up, because these guys are real "lords of the streets" and even police often doesn't dare to stop them even if they drive along the streets and firing up with AKs.   

In last time Russian authorities, feeling this "phantom manace" of instability conduct mass police raids to expell illegal migrants and conscripiting to the war of those, who got Russian citizenship recently. Chief of Moscow oblast police said he will do all to "lighten" Moscow oblast (i.e. to make a percentage of "swarthies" quite less in relation to "white" Slavic). Of course, this will cause much more lack of workforce. 

Edited July 28 by Haiduk

[chris talpas]

Perun up to his excellent standards with this dive into UA equipment loss rates and replacement 

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Heavy sitauation in Krasnohorivka. During last day Russians have been conducting continous mechanized assault of UKR positions in norhern part of this town. Pressure is too heavy and big advantage in personnel, our forces stepped back from many positions, but the defense is cotninuing

Russians in one of video claimed that they "did some trick, which zeroed a dominance of UKR FPVs in the sky" and this let them "steamed forward". From our side wasn't any mentions about this, and allegedly FPVs are still in work. But it's pointed out Russian more and more use new FPVs with 400-500 MHz range, which can't can't supress most of existing models of "trench EW" (though Russians complained about such rannge UKR FPVs too). Also some our TG reported Russians became to practice dropping of 400 MHz FPV from Orlan, which can fly far to our rear. And these FPVs unexpectedly attack our vehciles in the rear - in this case Orlan play a role of transmitter.

Example of artillery strike on Russian armored column, assaulting Krasnohorivka

 

Haiduk, what kind of artillery was doing those strikes?  Those looked like direct hits on vehicles.  SMART?

[chris talpas]

I don’t want this to devolve into a partisan discussion and hope to have a very narrow focus.

The potential impact of a Trump presidency on continued Ukrainian aid has been discussed and everyone has a pretty good sense of where Biden has stood.

While I fully expect a Harris presidency to continue to support Ukraine, I am curious if there is any indication that support would continue to flow on a similar trajectory or would there be any greater risk tolerance for escalation in terms of systems delivered and ROE for systems provided?

So on this narrow topic of support for Ukraine, are we likely to see any significant changes should the Democrats be successful in November?

Edited July 28 by chris talpas
Punctuation

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

How dare you?!  One word- Guinness.  Now go drink your piss beer somewhere else.  

Sir, I've drunk deep of the black in the Sunflower bar as the flags go marching by. As a single beer, in that place, it is hard to better. But for variety, experimentation and innovation American beers are simply the best in the world right now. It's ok though...even France is catching up. 

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, Baneman said:

 

I know it's off-topic but I cannot let this pass. 

Clearly neither of you have been to Germany, Austria, Belgium or other European countries where taste and flavour is a real thing. Personally I would back Kaiser Doppelmalz ( Austrian) against any beer in the world, but each to their own tastebuds - there may be contenders in the countries mentioned that I don't know.

I have been to all of the above and much more and respect those beers...but there is very little experimentation and lets be honest there is nothing new. Just like the NATO response to Russian aggression (not true but consider it a nod to the gods of topicality). 

[dan/california]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

• I do not have exact information about the payoff, but given his status, he most likely received some immediate payment. At the same time he unlikely to receive any significant life long payments (stipulated by the law). These payments supposed to come from local authorities who do not have much money themselves. He will get some small pension to buy some vodka and bread. And that's about it. 
• Unlikely. He is not that popular and too crippled. You must be very close to Guardian propagandists to get anything of real value. 
• Except for some local vet groups, which will arrange for his visits to schools on remembrance days, he will largely be forgotten.

Many thanks, it does seem almost self destructive for the regime to treat former soldiers so badly, but then there only so much graft to go around.

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

Kharchenko talks about UKR battlefield drones that recently (few months ago) got sufficient numbers and range (due to extensive modifications) to perform Free Hunt missions (akin to armed reconnaissance missions of Allied Air Forces in Normandy) at significant (up to 25 km) range hitting any vehicle that dare to come within range.

So, we may say that the 5 km Grey zone (I was taking about) has increased to 25 kilometers, but I prefer not to because it is a gimmick due to RU's incapacity to fight drones at the required scale. It's FPV drones on Free Hunt. With appropriate counter-drone defenses, you can push them back.

 

Low densities are cause by drone adjusted artillery and strike drones within 5 km of frontline (actual range depends). Effect of beyond battlefield strikes at logistics is vastly exaggerated. They are very useful at imposing various delays but do not prevent both sides from maneuvering regiments or even brigades. 

 

We do not have any evidence that strike on RU logistics cause anything but temporal disruption. The disruption is important. But beyond that the effect is limited.

Important thing the many analyst forget about RU army - Doctrinally they are Rommel followers - Drive forward, logistics be damned. Let Quartermaster sort it out [or he will be nullified]. 

 

The critical bottle neck is 5 to 25 km from front line. Drones forces you to rely on man carry which is slow and limited. Basically you cannot timely resuply your forward units making them extremely susceptible to retreat due to lack of ammo. This is why M113 is critical for UKR. It is sufficiently agile, sufficiently survivable, can carry a lot while being cheap with just to 2 man to lose in worse case. You get in, bring supply/take wounded, you get out. 

Cheap armored box for the win.

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, now I need to read this guy. I like where his heads at but totally independent of this I have a working theory that democracy is in fact cyclical as a social impulse.  It is dependent on equity and information…contamination of either of those two factors leads directly to democratic abandonment.  And right now we are contaminating the hell out of both in the West.

And thus does add a third book to his to do list, or is he up to four. Gong to be one heck of a "retirement"

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Going to stop you right there.  We saw here on this thread that the UA saw the build up but 1) could not react due to restrictions on strikes in Russia and 2) were desperately undermanned and dislocated.  You are painting “surprise” where in fact they were simply unable to react quickly due to resource constraints.  Then once they did that entire offensive was choked off and failed after 10-15 kms.

This makes no sense.  Battlefield ISR is directly linked into Operational and Strategic ISR…it is freakin 2024, not 1972.

And again, you are agreeing with me here.  I fully agree that drone ISR is making concentration impossible, however, the part you are missing is that “battlefield” ISR is being queued by operational and strategic ISR of the highest resolution in human history.  The main problem with your theory is that if drones are the sole reason for “battlefield ISR” the if a side can push back or stop the drones then surprise and freedom of movement is possible….but it ain’t.

I do not debate in the least that drone ISR has a major impact but you are missing a massive C4ISR architecture effecting the entire battlefield. You appear to think that tactical ISR is all there is and I can tell you “straight from the horses mouth” that this is simply not true.

At this point I am not even sure why we are arguing.  We both agree that ISR is shaping this war, it is a question of how that ISR is being delivered.  Right now the US military has likely the highest concentration of ISR assets over any region since Iraq in 03 and we have developed a lot more assets since then. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/#:~:text=Number of satellites in orbit - major countries 2022&text=Of the 5%2C465 active artificial,China%2C accounting for only 541.) That ISR is 1) very high resolution and 2) pretty much everywhere.  Nothing larger than a company is staging or moving without being picked up and handed off to the UA.  All those tactical feeds link up with the Operational/Strategic in TOCs all over Ukraine.

Russia has built its own complex. It is nowhere near as effective as the US backbone but it gets the job done. You keep quoting sources that all pretty much note the same thing: lack of resources not information. This is heartbreaking as the UA is very likely watching the RA mass up and advance in areas but cannot do anything about it.

To summarize, peace on drone ISR…it has completely changed warfare.  But you are simply mistaken if you believe that is the only ISR in this game.  Take the hint and trust me in this one and let’s leave it at that.  This is very good news for Ukraine by the way as it means that so long as US C4ISR is in place, the UA is enabled in protecting  an 800km frontage with the lowest troop densities in the history of modern warfare…while attriting the hell out of the RA.

Given you are getting almost all your information from the tactical levels it is not surprising that you landed on your current views. For example, logistics strikes do not simply “buy time” the restrict options.  The major reason we have not seen a RA breakout is that long logistics lines needed to sustain a deep manoeuvre are also impossible due to all the conditions you have noted.

Basically, I do not disagree with what you are saying…it is the math you used to get there that has led you to a skewed view.  You can choose to believe me or not.  Over time the full picture of US background support will be made public, hopefully sooner than later once this war is over.

[Edit.  Going to add some reading - 

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AEtherJournal/Journals/Volume-3_Number-1/Dickey_Gleason.pdf

https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/role-space-domain-russia-ukraine-war (this one is good as it outlines what commercial is doing alone)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/11/ukraine-us-intelligence-sharing-war/

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/airpower-after-ukraine/early-lessons-from-the-russia-ukraine-war-as-a-space-conflict/

https://www.key.aero/article/role-nato-isr-aircraft-are-playing-monitoring-war-ukraine

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/lessons-royal-navys-future-operations-black-and-red-sea]

 

 

Well at least the homework is interesting.

4 hours ago, acrashb said:

Hence the role of sports.  Orwell, once again, was spot-on: "Serious sport is ... war minus the shooting".  

So give people enough bread and circuses and perhaps we can avoid subversive civil war.  Perhaps the Romans were on to something.

 

There is an infinity of books now posited on immersive VR games. It seems like the most likely way to not off our selves long term. Or inspire us to, mileage may vary.

 

Quote

 

https://medievalmeadandbeer.wordpress.com/2019/06/16/iron-age-stone-brewing-demonstration/

there is plenty of archaeological evidence for the brewing of beer in Viking age context. Residues of a fruit & honey beer from northwest Denmark of circa 1500-1300 BCE, found in 2014, included honey, bog cranberry, lingonberry, bog myrtle, yarrow, juniper, birch tree resin, as well as wheat, barley and/or rye.

 

The Vikings drank fruity beer, so I can, too.

[mosuri]

42 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Sir, I've drunk deep of the black in the Sunflower bar as the flags go marching by. As a single beer, in that place, it is hard to better. But for variety, experimentation and innovation American beers are simply the best in the world right now. It's ok though...even France is catching up. 

Craft/microbreweries have boomed in multiple countries in the past couple of decades, and it's made a huge number of local beer styles available outside their country of origin. I raise my glass to the enthusiasts that made it happen! Thanks to them there's a decent selection of good quality beers everywhere in the west.

As for the question, "do you prefer pilsener/pale ale/weissbier/lambic/gose/sour/..." there is only one correct answer, that being "yes, please!"

[The_Capt]

55 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

I don’t want this to devolve into a partisan discussion and hope to have a very narrow focus.

The potential impact of a Trump presidency on continued Ukrainian aid has been discussed and everyone has a pretty good sense of where Biden has stood.

While I fully expect a Harris presidency to continue to support Ukraine, I am curious if there is any indication that support would continue to flow on a similar trajectory or would there be any greater risk tolerance for escalation in terms of systems delivered and ROE for systems provided?

So on this narrow topic of support for Ukraine, are we likely to see any significant changes should the Democrats be successful in November?

To my mind the major risks are on the things that the President can directly control.  Trump could veto spending programs but depending on how the Congress and Senate goes that could set him up for pain.  I am sure billindc will come along and give a much better explanation of the political side, but I suspect it is complicated.

On the military side, as CinC, Trump could order an end to all in motion military support.  This would include embeds and training support.  And most damaging, he could turn off the C4ISR pipe.  This would leave the UA much more in the dark ISR-wise.  They would be more like Grigb is describing with organic tac ISR as the main backbone.  This causes major problems in reacting to Russian surges and we could actually see surprise offensives.  The US has an all-domain C4ISR architecture that has the processing power (read AI) to take picobytes of data and develop intelligence pictures and targets.  If that gets cut off, the UA is going to have a much harder time of it. The good news is that the UA appears to have bolted together a JADC2 “lite” with an open source backbone.  So they will it be totally in the blind.

The biggest impact may be in the human space.  Russia will be emboldened and likely push hard looking for some sort of finish line.  Ukrainian morale is bound to take a hit.  Basically we are in “nothing good” territory but I do not think we will see Russians in Kyiv.

[kimbosbread]

Having a large variety of ****ty experimental beers is just different flavors of poo. You really can’t beat good Austrian/Czech/German/Belgian beer; Kloster Andechs is my favorite.

That said, if you are inclined to elevate your petty barbarism to unmitigated savagery, you should try the more ridiculous things coming from Eugene: https://www.claim52brewing.com

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To my mind the major risks are on the things that the President can directly control.  Trump could veto spending programs but depending on how the Congress and Senate goes that could set him up for pain.  I am sure billindc will come along and give a much better explanation of the political side, but I suspect it is complicated.

On the military side, as CinC, Trump could order an end to all in motion military support.  This would include embeds and training support.  And most damaging, he could turn off the C4ISR pipe.  This would leave the UA much more in the dark ISR-wise.  They would be more like Grigb is describing with organic tac ISR as the main backbone.  This causes major problems in reacting to Russian surges and we could actually see surprise offensives.  The US has an all-domain C4ISR architecture that has the processing power (read AI) to take picobytes of data and develop intelligence pictures and targets.  If that gets cut off, the UA is going to have a much harder time of it. The good news is that the UA appears to have bolted together a JADC2 “lite” with an open source backbone.  So they will it be totally in the blind.

The biggest impact may be in the human space.  Russia will be emboldened and likely push hard looking for some sort of finish line.  Ukrainian morale is bound to take a hit.  Basically we are in “nothing good” territory but I do not think we will see Russians in Kyiv.

This article gets the crux of what's going on: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/06/25/kyiv-isnt-sweating-that-trump-ukraine-plan-00164883

Essentially, Pompeo and others are laying out plans that they say will be a Trump administration approach to Ukraine. In reality:  “We believe it’s just the race of folks who want to make it look like they are setting new Trump’s foreign policy agenda and reminding [people] about themselves,” a person close to President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s office told NatSec Daily. “The perception is that nobody actually knows what Trump’s approach will be." 

My personal take is that Trump has continually advertised his affinity for Putin and has a fatally strong sense of his own dealmaking prowess. He has said he will "solve" Ukraine immediately if he wins and there is no reason to think that won't entail selling it down the river. His commitment to the perception of being a dealmaker is far more important to him than what such a move would do to Ukrainians, NATO or American interests. 

 

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Haiduk, what kind of artillery was doing those strikes?  Those looked like direct hits on vehicles.  SMART?

SMART gives two aerial explosions, with visible downward streams - here we can see two ground impacts and one explosion in 10-15 m aside. I would suppose this is just well-targeted "TRP"  

Several days ago there was other episode of direct hit of artillery shell to the Russian tank from the second shot, but I can't find it

[Haiduk]

[chris talpas]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To my mind the major risks are on the things that the President can directly control.  Trump could veto spending programs but depending on how the Congress and Senate goes that could set him up for pain.  I am sure billindc will come along and give a much better explanation of the political side, but I suspect it is complicated.

Hi The_Capt,

I appreciate you recapping the dangers of Trump winning.  The intent of my question was more around what if any policy differences around Ukraine could one expect with a Harris win?  Outside of her supporting the Biden position, are there any hints of distinction either from statements while a senator or since assuming the candidacy, that would imply a more hawkish or dovish stance or stay the course?
 

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

SMART gives two aerial explosions, with visible downward streams - here we can see two ground impacts and one explosion in 10-15 m aside. I would suppose this is just well-targeted "TRP"  

Several days ago there was other episode of direct hit of artillery shell to the Russian tank from the second shot, but I can't find it

Maybe PGM, laser guided.  That is some nice TRP shooting if it is old fashion conventional.

[ArmouredTopHat]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Several days ago there was other episode of direct hit of artillery shell to the Russian tank from the second shot, but I can't find it

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1eaoh1m/ukrainian_artillery_makes_a_direct_hit_on_a/

Got your back!