How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

it is important to keep EW separate from DEW (directed energy weapons).  The two are not the same thing.  EW is a wide range of capabilities that are, put simply, designed to interfere with communications. Directed energy weapons are those which use energy to physically harm their targets. 

Put more simply, a laser designed to burn a target is not a form of EW.  Blasts of damaging microwaves are considered directed energy weapons, not EW.

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

We've already had this discussion a few times, I think, in various forms.

If you turn on an EW system with enough power to interfere with everybody (or anybody, really), you can be sure that the next things that come across the line are anti-radiation missiles/drones/spiders/roboducks because a) you just broke everybody's radios, including your own, and b) you put up a giant target that's literally screaming "shoot me first!", like Daffy Duck.  Somebody is going to take that bait and shoot your EW.

Once it's blown up everybody can go back to their regularly scheduled droning.

Yes to all of this.  It is a modernization of the old concept of "LOS works both ways" used to warn soldiers, in a simplified way, that if you can see the enemy then the enemy can see you.

In the case of EW we're talking about electronic emissions radiating outward from one or more points.  The signals can be backtracked by strength in order to pinpoint the source.  Once a source is determined then it can be attacked by a wide range of counter measures, including traditional unguided weapons (artillery being the most flexible). 

Since EW has been, and will likely continue to be, very big and expensive there will only be so many systems available at one time in one sector of front.

People like to imagine EW being unconstrained by physics.  The reality is that EW is operating in some of the most constrained and difficult areas of physics because inherently it is about the availability to project large amounts of energy on a continuous basis.  As soon as the energy is turned off, the effects go away.

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

But automation is going to happen anyway.  And it already has.  It's been pointed out here, and also in the Watling interview that was posted a week or so ago, that autonomous weapons have been in use for ages.  The most common one is landmines, and they're essentially completely indiscriminate.  So if you have something like a drone that you can toss onto an opposing army in a region where you can be confident that there are few innocents, the target selection doesn't need to be all that picky for people to be willing to use it and claim that it's acceptable under the LOAC.

Yes.  Anybody that thinks fully automated systems are "stuff of the future" are technically correct because the future is anytime later than the present.  Those who think that it is far off into the future are simply not well informed about the current state of autonomous capabilities, both in the lab and already in the field.

What is a bit further off are autonomous micro and nano systems.  The poisonous "bees" in the X posting in the previous page is an example of micro, the genetic sniffing nanobots in the sci-fi "Silo" books (and now AppleTV show) are an example of nano.  But we're not that far off from micro and nano already exists in labs and tons of resources are being poured into making them practical for medical applications.  Unfortunately, if you can design a nanobot to repair Human cells you can change their programming to destroy them.  In fact, some of the medical applications (fighting cancer, for example) have them set to destroy as a primary mission.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

This isn't any different than at the start of the war.  A large % of the Ukrainian populace wanted a ceasefire, but when asked if they would be willing to do that in exchange for all of Russia's demands the number in favor of a ceasefire dropped off to nearly nothing.  Skimming this article it appears to be the same thing.

This all makes sense and, to me, is not an indication of a lack of will to keep fighting.  If Russia were really offering conditions for a last and just peace, why wouldn't 100% of Ukrainians be in favor of it?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Mashovets shares this opinion
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2037
 

 

It is sad to be reminded how hard it is to change any form of culture, military or otherwise.  A core principle of Communism, as practiced, is a system of ass covering through lies, corruption, and deliberate ignorance.  We've seen how hard it is for nations to shake this legacy even under favorable circumstances.  Bulgaria, for example.  We also see how it can continue on in another form.  Russia, for example.

What I find unsettling is that the 59th has been one of the more consistently competent units in the war.  Is it slipping back into old habits through the loss of experienced personnel and/or desperate conditions at the front?

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I think the completely autonomous AI drones have still some way to be effective /safe and then this will be the next phase in development/counter measures 

But for now, they rely on human operators from far faaaar away. 

I can see the military taking dramatic measures if nothing else works, including dangerous, almost nuclear EW, provided that they don't fry their own troops. 

We have been around this tree several time now:

1.  A major shift in warfare has occurred.  Whether it is a blip unique to this war or enduring is still in the air. However, the evidence is mounting that we are seeing consistent trends from before the war, so it is logical to assume they will extend beyond it - impacts of C4ISR, higher-cheap precision, longer ranges, unmanned systems - cheap, small, many and lethal.  The impacts of this are appearing as a shift from manoeuvre to denial, and possibly defensive primacy.

2.  How enduring is this shift?  Again, largely unknown at this point.  I personally suspect it will continue and we will see a denial/defence primacy for the foreseeable future.  The reason is that the technologies that are driving it are moving faster than those to neutralize them. Without effective counters, battlefield symmetry cannot be easily re-established.  For example, the idea of “air dominance” really has no meaning in the contemporary battlefield.  Ukraine has proven that if one cannot control the air column from ground to sky manoeuvre is nearly impossible. Until we see evidence otherwise I kind of have to go with…we are stuck

3.  There is no single solution.  No single gun system, APS, or EW solution that is going to re-establish battlefield symmetry.  No single solution is going to be able to deal with the combinations of systems currently denying the battlefield.  The good news is that C4ISR cuts both ways, so linking all of these defensive systems is viable.  This could create a layered multi-modal defensive system to neutralize denial and re-start manoeuvre.  The bad news is that the challenges being posed by the offensive/denial technologies exceed neutralizing technology.  We simply do not have the technology to stop autonomous FPV swarms, long range top attack ATGM, Artillery and missiles, mines and whatever they come up with next… all empowered by C4ISR and forward processing.  Even in combinations the costs and profiles of current platforms are too big, too exposed, too centralized, too expensive and rely on too large a logistical requirement.  Further if we did have a system capable of detecting, tracking, deconflicting and engaging all of those offensive systems effectively, in the density we are seeing on the Ukrainian battlefield…they would change warfare in-themselves.  And the disruption would continue apace.

This is pretty much the situation until we see evidence otherwise. Now what to do about all this…well that is the tree we keep arguing and debating.  Some are fans of “hope and prayer” in that “someone will figure something out”.  Or a new super defensive system will turn the tide. Others are more skeptical based on what we are seeing.  The wheel keeps turning…

[dan/california]

On 7/13/2024 at 2:48 PM, Carolus said:

Also noticed the usage of gas masks (unless that is standard issue during training due to the fumes from training rounds or whatever).

Ukrainian complaints about Russian use of gas irritants have not stopped. Some UAF units have to wear masks for hours each day.

So, a good training scenario: trench cleaning under continuous drone observation and FPV attacks, with chemical warfare added in the mix. And OPFOR with red armbands.

It looks like an excellent training exercise. What is amazing though is they found music WORSE than most of the Ukrainian videos. I didn't think that was possible.

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

Short video from a Ukrainian FPV training center.

 

 

This is an excellent example of how training and testing with drones is easier. You can put dummy payloads on the drones and chase the truck with them all day long a little or no risk to the operator. It doesn't matter if you training people or AIs to fly, you can do this all day long at very reasonable cost. A first class program would be collecting data for AI piots even as it trained FPV operators. 

This also further demonstrates that any body selling an anti drone solution can be asked to pass a rigorous test. My short hand for that is Magyars Birds get to try and paint your new toy with paintaball warheads. If you can't pass that test, you don't get the contract.

Edited July 15 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

 

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

No news about the Ukrainian "V1" missile for a long while. I assume the project was never picked up by the government.

But interstingly a pulsed jet engine was developed by an American company and the university of Maryland, specifically for drones.

 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240709455523/en/

The finished J1 engine is for drones up 90kg, the K1 (in development) will be able to propel ca. 540kg. 

I wonder if Ukraine will get to test some of the early series models. These should be harder to intercept than mopeds. On the other hand, Ukraine needs mass to swarm Russian refineries and power plants each month.

 

Pulsed jets are cheaper to make than other types of jets. The only moving parts are the valves. Problem is, that the valves don't last very long. But again, this isn't a problem for a cruise missile.

One V1 cost about 5000 RM to make (in 1944) and 280 hours of work. Of course, the Nazis didn't pay those workers...
In comparison, a Tiger 1 clocked in at 300,000 RM.

The V1 had a range of about 300km with a speed of 650km/h. It could carry a warhead of 850kg. In comparison, the Shaheds have a range of about 1000km, fly with 185km/h with a 50kg warhead.

The wave engine cited in the article above has nearly double the fuel efficiency of the V1. They have two engines on their site. One has 1/16th, the other 1/4th of the thrust of the V1.
https://wave-engine.com/products/
That sounds suitable for a smaller version V1.

The data I have is very thin, but if I could choose between one tank or 60 small V1s equipped with modern control systems (to stay with the WWII ratio), I would go for the missile. OTOH, we haven't seen them in Ukraine, so there must be reasons why they don't exist.

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, poesel said:

Pulsed jets are cheaper to make than other types of jets. The only moving parts are the valves. Problem is, that the valves don't last very long. But again, this isn't a problem for a cruise missile.

One V1 cost about 5000 RM to make (in 1944) and 280 hours of work. Of course, the Nazis didn't pay those workers...
In comparison, a Tiger 1 clocked in at 300,000 RM.

The V1 had a range of about 300km with a speed of 650km/h. It could carry a warhead of 850kg. In comparison, the Shaheds have a range of about 1000km, fly with 185km/h with a 50kg warhead.

The wave engine cited in the article above has nearly double the fuel efficiency of the V1. They have two engines on their site. One has 1/16th, the other 1/4th of the thrust of the V1.
https://wave-engine.com/products/
That sounds suitable for a smaller version V1.

The data I have is very thin, but if I could choose between one tank or 60 small V1s equipped with modern control systems (to stay with the WWII ratio), I would go for the missile. OTOH, we haven't seen them in Ukraine, so there must be reasons why they don't exist.

But that reason could simply be the time it takes to set up a new line for the massed production of any specialized machinery. This has sort of been a constant in the whole war. If those valves require metallurgy and specifications that are not common, it takes time. Of course once it is all set up we might start seeing thousands per month.

 

[kimbosbread]

59 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But that reason could simply be the time it takes to set up a new line for the massed production of any specialized machinery. This has sort of been a constant in the whole war. If those valves require metallurgy and specifications that are not common, it takes time. Of course once it is all set up we might start seeing thousands per month.

You can build a pulse jet in your backyard for very little money. There was for sure a video of some guys in Ukraine building one a year or two ago. My assumption it’s either Ukraine’s MOD is ossified, or the US said don’t do deep strike in Russia until recently, and now that they have enough other drone construction spooled up, it’s not a priority, or maybe the guys building them got killed.

[Pete Wenman]

 

Interesting take on RU manpower issues

 

 

P

[ArmouredTopHat]

Nice to see some large scale production and supply of something other than FPVs

[Haiduk]

19 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-defender-calls-on-zelenskyy-to-investigate-59th-separate-motorized-brigade-commander-50434733.html
 

https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/16148
 

 

This is very dangerous, but looks like after dismissal of Sodol, some threshold level is already passed. Either all will continue like previous two years and we have all chances to lost this war, or public resonance will force authorities to do something with high command staff. The problem of incompetence and "Zhukov style" command doesn't appear after Zaluzhnyi resignation. Just in 2022 we had success, courage and many motivated soldiers, so about such things tried not to talk. But Bakhmut campaign and unsuccessfull offensive, creating of dozens new brigades with mobilized retired stupid soviet-style commanders, who don't understand modern warfare and don't want to study themselves - all this caused first break between "old army elite" and "men of war", supported by society activists. Fail of mobilization in 2023 and successful Russian PsyOps campaign in many cases were because of criminal and incompetent orders of high command, who sent to grinder without any logic and operative necessity thousands of lives. 

"Old style" commanders could hold the front and even achieve some successes, sending company by company to hold or retake a tree-plant, which already 10 rimes passed from the hand to hand. Some cynically openly told "I'm not care how much them will lost, the order must be accomplished, we will get reinforcement anyway". But in one not good moment the spring of reinforcements sharply dried out. And turned out, these commanders without sending hundreds of private Mykolas to the death again and again, just incapable to wage the war, they are not capable organize communication between own units, they are not capable to organize fire support etc. And the problem has arised in all highness.

This is not a first scandal. 59th motorized infantry brigade was one of capable units from 5x brigades, established in ATO times. During full-scale it was headed by talented officer Sukharevskyi, which personally paritcipated in development of brigade UAV systems and tactic of thier usage, so 59th had one of the most effective UAV forces. But recently Sukharevskyi was appointed as a chief of new established Unmanned Systems Command and his place in brigade seized colonel Shevchuk. Soldiers told he is typical Soviet idiot, he was responsible for stupid command, which cost many lives in some other brigade, but by typical Ukrainian tradition he was removed from that brigade... with promotion and appointing of commander of 59th. Shevshuk in short time disrupted all what created Sukharevskyi, except about what told "Ptashka", medical service of volunteer battalion "Da Vinchi Wolves", who became a part of brigade now had a sharp conflict with chief of brigade medical service. Chief of this service just sit own own place and doesn't want to improve nothing. She even rejects to allow to transfuse the blood to wounded in brigade stabilization point, despite this already allowed by Medical Command directive - and of course after "uprising of combat medics", which during long several month "war" forced Medical Command to recognize this method increasing chanses to save lives.

I can recall scandal, but more silent with 14th mech. brigade. Brigade successfully repelled Russian assault on Kupiansk direction, but their commander had a dare to report to HQ about real situation in brigade and situation around. But top-brass doesn't like a true. Commander was removed and on his place was appointed next "soviet style officer", who already never sent reports, which could make top-brass sad. But level of losses in brigade rised significantly.

And today's appeal of 24th mech brigade to President with demanding to remain colonel Holishevskyi as brigade commander. Soldiers say this is very cool talented commander, which rised combat capabilities of brigade and has respect to soldiers. But.... He also sens "uncomfortable" reports. And top-brass, readinh them getting angry "What? Why?! Retake this area immediately! Will we lost many soldiers?! Don't give a damn! Execute!" Holishevskyi reportedly rejected to execute idiotic orders from HQ generals, which completely don't know real situation and real conditions of troops. So, General Staff is preparing to remove ot from command and to appoint him to military university. Of course, somebody with new experience have to teach future officers, but this looks like usual revenge. 

Other recent episode - conflict between 226th TD battalion and commander of 41st mech. brigade colonel Romashko. Soldiers say he is a cum of Syrskyi. The said Romashko consider soldiers even own soldiers as a cattle, so you can imaging his treatment to attached units. 41st came on place of 24th brigade, which was moved to Chasiv Yar. Comamnder didn't master with defense of own sector and enemy advanced in New-York settlement southern from Toretsk. He ordered 226th battalion (strictly saying a large company of this battalion) to counter-attack the enemy, cut off his logistics and restore positions. But he didn't give any fire support. 226th TD battalion is from Kyiv 241st TD brigade - this is very well trained unit with motivated soldiers, from which many ATO veterans. But TD units are just light infantry. Without support battalion suffered heavy losses, their commander tried to explain Romashko they can't accomplish this task, because he completely didn't understand real situation and this task can accomplish only StarTroopers, but Romashko has started to make threats with criminal cases, so battalion again was sent to impossible mission and again lost many soldiers without any sense. Scandal with Romashko and with on of his HQ officers, who ordered by obscene words to evacuation car driver, who carried wounded soldiers to turn back and "throw down them back to position" was huge. Two days ago some messages appeared that Romashko is dismissed, but this is not confirmed yet.

Other incident from twitter talks of soldiers - one guy told thier battalion commander, who substituted previous commander - "old alcohoilic and scum" in short time rised combat capabilities of battalion and their unit successfully fought several months. But commander gity under Operative Command committee investigation because... their battlion had too low level of losses. Much less than "calculated". By opinion of these staff rats "if you havn't many losses your unit don't fight properly, so you evade from task accomplishing". The same incident I know as far as from ATO times. Nothing changed. 

Now a petition to president is registered to introduce responsibility for high officers for criminal or incompetent orders, which inflicted high level of losses of personnel or equipment. If soldier lost own rifle he will pass seven circles of the hell, but if commander of fighter regiment lost several jets on airfield because he did nothing to protect airfield (of chief of logistic, who ordered the military train to stay several hours on the station close to frontline) - they will have no responsibility. In better case they will resigned from own duty and moved to other duty, often with promotion. 

The situiation now went so far, that society must force authorities to make reforms in high command. Because small Soviet army never defeat large Soviet army 

Edited July 16 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This night SAM site of 12th AD division was hit near Fiolent cape in Crimea. Reportedly there were at least eight explosions (more like drones). ASTRA claimed at least one radar damaged, also one S-300/400 launcher position was hit

 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Soldiers say he is a cum of Syrskyi.

That's probably a translation of кум, word meaning "mate" in vernacular (as in "a mate of Syrski") (historically meaning a friend close enough to be a godfather to one's child) in Ukrainian and several other slavic languages. Not the other thing.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That's probably a translation of кум, word meaning "mate" in vernacular (as in "a mate of Syrski") (historically meaning a friend close enough to be a godfather to one's child) in Ukrainian and several other slavic languages. Not the other thing.

Great context, very helpful.

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

Its really interesting to hear that Bradleys have a reputation for surviving things like FPVs and visually have typically little improvised protection applied to them when the M1 crews have had the need to plaster a lot of improvised protection on the sides and top with a few noteworthy complaints about its top or side turret weaknesses against loitering munitions. 

Shows you how design can very much influence survivability despite the heavier vehicle being on paper more protected.

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Its really interesting to hear that Bradleys have a reputation for surviving things like FPVs and visually have typically little improvised protection applied to them when the M1 crews have had the need to plaster a lot of improvised protection on the sides and top with a few noteworthy complaints about its top or side turret weaknesses against loitering munitions. 

Shows you how design can very much influence survivability despite the heavier vehicle being on paper more protected.

It might be because the Abrams are getting targeted with Lancets and the Bradleys more likely FPVs.  We've seen Lancets hitting Bradleys before and it does take them out.  Still, the armored protection for the crew and passengers does what it is supposed to do even if the vehicle is a loss after a hit.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Its really interesting to hear that Bradleys have a reputation for surviving things like FPVs and visually have typically little improvised protection applied to them when the M1 crews have had the need to plaster a lot of improvised protection on the sides and top with a few noteworthy complaints about its top or side turret weaknesses against loitering munitions. 

Shows you how design can very much influence survivability despite the heavier vehicle being on paper more protected.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It might be because the Abrams are getting targeted with Lancets and the Bradleys more likely FPVs.  We've seen Lancets hitting Bradleys before and it does take them out.  Still, the armored protection for the crew and passengers does what it is supposed to do even if the vehicle is a loss after a hit.

Steve

Ukrainian Bradleys are provided with BRAT on both hull and turret, which is at least somewhat effective against Lancets. Abrams has ARAT only on the hull, a deficiency Ukrainian tankers have complained about.

“We as a crew and as a battalion in general would like from our American partners to provide us with dynamic armor, so that we have not only the flanks protected, but also the turret.”

Edited July 16 by Vanir Ausf B

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Ukrainian Bradleys are provided with BRAT on both hull and turret, which is at least somewhat effective against Lancets. Abrams has ARAT only on the hull, a deficiency Ukrainian tankers have complained about.

Yup, that is what I was remembering.  Saves the passengers, but the vehicle is still pretty toasted.  Which is not a great outcome from a strategic perspective, but sure is from the soldier's perspective.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1e36oi6/russian_soldier_hit_by_ukrainian_fpv_drone_while/

Video from the receiving end, gives a really good audio of what the drone sounds like on its final run. Also these guys apparently were never told that casually standing in a window would get you dead.

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, that is what I was remembering.  Saves the passengers, but the vehicle is still pretty toasted.  Which is not a great outcome from a strategic perspective, but sure is from the soldier's perspective.

Steve

If they can keep getting equipment supplied from factories outside the war zone, protecting soldiers is way better than protecting vehicles.

For the US MIC it's a marketing and sales opportunity: US Gov can get rid of all that old stuff that they're paying to keep parked and see what holds up against drone wars.  Then MIC gets to sell a whole new generation of stuff to put in the parking lots.

[Carolus]

Russian source on infantry warfare in Ukraine.

 

 

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Video from the receiving end, gives a really good audio of what the drone sounds like on its final run. Also these guys apparently were never told that casually standing in a window would get you dead.

 

They sound like stuka flies