ArmouredTopHat Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Forgive the er...interesting editing of this footage, I think its worth viewing all the same. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said: https://defense-update.com/20181010_ironfist_light.html The 2006 experienced was the instigator for the investment into APS to begin with due to the issues the IDF had with operated their armour close to urban areas. 40+ combat interceptions were recorded by 2018 according to that article, the number has presumably ballooned as Gaza kicked off. Tested was pretty extensive before hand, including by the USA which mounted it on Stryker to test pretty early on and seemed impressed. Over 1 million operating hours and 5,400 field tests according to the developer. https://www.defensedaily.com/successful-u-s-evaluation-for-rafaels-active-protection-system/uncategorized/ The system has evolved and matured a lot in that time to include software updates and lighter systems designed for use on a wide variety of vehicles. A decade of development is pretty extensive. So NEVER in a near peer threat environment ... which is why it was suggested it should be tested in Ukraine, Would the IDF do any better than anyone else with the multiple threat levels? 40+ interceptions frankly doesn't shock and awe me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 26 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said: To be fair, for all we know there could be something going on. We are not always privy to what either countries or defence companies are up to. The Fins have proven this with how they were pretty clandestine on what they sent as aid, and it took a while to surface even with all the video cameras around. Oh, I am sure there is a lot of this going on that we don't know about. Including foreign nationals being rather close to the frontlines, though probably not right in them. One example we know of for sure is that the Milrem Robotics has a number of their unarmed UGVs in Ukraine for some time already. The Russians even captured one (or two?). I would bet that some of the unarmed examples that went into Ukraine became armed once they were already there, along with appropriate layers of deniability. We know for sure that lots of small to mid sized companies have put products into the field. Mine walking shoes, for example. Just like the aforementioned EW guns, these small developers have too much opportunity to pass up. Worst case is that they learn a lot and continue to be overlooked by militaries. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 2 minutes ago, sburke said: So NEVER in a near peer threat environment ... which is why it was suggested it should be tested in Ukraine, Would the IDF do any better than anyone else with the multiple threat levels? 40+ interceptions frankly doesn't shock and awe me. Especially because I bet that of the 40 examples there's only a few variations on theme. For example 25 single RPGs launched from 100m away. I doubt any of the 40 detail 3 drones coming at it from 1m off the ground aiming at the running gear. Which is for sure what I would try to do. A tank without a track is often as good as a full on kill. Especially if you can later get it with a grenade while abandoned or have fun smacking more FPVs into the recovery crews. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 12 minutes ago, sburke said: So NEVER in a near peer threat environment ... which is why it was suggested it should be tested in Ukraine, Would the IDF do any better than anyone else with the multiple threat levels? 40+ interceptions frankly doesn't shock and awe me. In fairness Trophy has been shown to work against Kornet, which is pretty up there in terms of lethal ATGM capability, its not like the Russians are using anything more capable on the man portable front. (though I am curious if Trophy can defend against helicopter based ATGMs) The number of interceptions is likely now in the multiple hundreds with the Gaza situation, though we are lacking data on that front and presumably most of it is RPG-7 and RPG-29. Hamas certainly seem to think it an issue enough that they need to develop specific tactics against it though. Over 5k firing tests is nothing to snuff at either. Edited July 11 by ArmouredTopHat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Mine walking shoes, for example. This one piqued my interest, is this what you are referring to? https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/ukrainian-teenager-invents-mine-resistant-shoes/ Edited July 11 by ArmouredTopHat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 30 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said: This one piqued my interest, is this what you are referring to? https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/ukrainian-teenager-invents-mine-resistant-shoes/ Yup. We saw some early reporting on their use and it was quite positive, including one instance where an AP mine was detonated and the walker was either uninjured or just had some minor scrapes (I forget which). I have not heard much about demining since as it has faded into the back pages of the news cycle. Which reminds me to check in on Petron! https://patron.dog/en/ He even has his own Wiki page. Good news is he seems to still be doing his thing! https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/meet-ukraine-s-bluey-the-hero-dog-so-popular-he-s-been-targeted-by-the-kremlin-20240503-p5fonf.html Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: That is no doubt a contributing factor now, but Ukraine had already shown how effective drones could be a year before they launched their attacks in October. I'm just surprised they didn't stockpile more before they launched their attack. My guess is they were so focused on traditional means of causing pain, and keeping Israel ignorant of their plans, they didn't take drones into their pre-war planning and now it's difficult to do at scale. Instead, they are probably prioritizing keeping their traditional capabilities going (bullets, RPGs, etc.) instead of branching into something new. Why Hamas doesn't use drones? Tsk, easy answer: they were all shot down by APS. Silly question. Joke aside: Gaza is a small territory, and the IDF doesn't need to destroy Hamas tanks or pry Hamas soldiers out of their trenches. So Israel has no need for FPV drones. That means, that they could drown the whole necessary spectrum for FPV operation to make them inoperable without hurting themselves. I guess Hamas knows that, and so they never tried. Or: they tried, and the IDF easily triangulated the source and bombed the crap out of them. Thus, they learned. OTOH, if there was a war with Lebanon or Syria, I guess we would see lots of them. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holoween Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: I think that counter-drone, drones are a must. Sure invest in PD but without layered flying defence any ground force is done. And even if you can APS everything, one has to protect logistics lines. And then if one can protect logistics lines, one has to try and protect from ISR. My advice is to go lighter but frankly after watching Russian soldiers getting hunted down in a drainpipe 15 grid squares away, I am not even sure that will work. Well the way i see it as it stands in ukraine drones can and do kill everything and unless you have a way of shooting them down ultimately both sides just kill each other at greatly increased rates. So next few years everyone is going to get their drone strike units in order and after that whoever figures out how to not die to drones wins. 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: And more importantly, manufacturers who already have orders (or hope to have orders) are disinterested in having their products fail in a real world environment. If I were General Dynamics or BAE the very last thing I would want to do, as a corporate officer, is send anything to Ukraine. The potential for doing harm is far greater than doing good. A case in point are the various squad level EW "guns" we saw rushed to Ukraine at the beginning of the war. These were made by fairly small companies who could have massive contracts coming in if they could prove their products effective. High stakes gamble and, from what we can tell, they were found to be impractical under field conditions. They would also be useless against autonomous, semi-autonomous, or "military grade" UAS. So yeah, there's definitely some evidence that private industry should be very leery of getting their products "tested". Now, if I were a responsible military officer, I would be sending that stuff over to Ukraine and see how well it goes before purchasing any more of it. Steve To me it seems like its also company dependent. Rheinmetall is absolutely jumping at the ukraine opportunity with everything they have. And for others it seems like a matter of sales. If stuff is selling well it wont make it to ukraine and if it isnt it does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 20 minutes ago, holoween said: To me it seems like its also company dependent. Rheinmetall is absolutely jumping at the ukraine opportunity with everything they have. And for others it seems like a matter of sales. If stuff is selling well it wont make it to ukraine and if it isnt it does. For sure it is complex. Something this big with this much money at stake can't ever be anything other than complex! Many companies have very good products to sell, such as the various air defense systems, ATGMs, stand off weapons (Storm Shadow), artillery, basic infantry weaponry, IED resistant trucks, and of course things like counter battery systems, comms, and other basic military necessities. They have already passed the tests and therefore the more in Ukraine the better. There is also a large amount of stuff that is already bought that might as well send, like old Leopard 1s, M113s, Bradleys, older Abrams and Leopards, etc. In fact, since these are (largely) outdated there's a good pitch for the companies to make by saying "oh yes, see! We told you we should put another $1m worth of stuff on this tank. Maybe now you'll sign a contract". What I was talking more about are the things which are not so clear cut. For example, sending the very latest MBT that nations are still buying or X drone defense weapon that's likely not to work very well. Better to keep that stuff away from Ukraine to avoid possible embarrassments or uncomfortable questions. Really, what it boils down to is the realistic comfort level a defense company has that it's product will work as advertised. If I were in the corporate boardroom I would be looking to my engineers to tell me the truth before making any decisions. In the end, we're probably talking about a very small amount of stuff being deliberately withheld by nervous companies. However, it is probably the stuff that is most SHOULD go to Ukraine. APS being one of those, but also things like the Stryker mounted laser systems. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holoween Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: What I was talking more about are the things which are not so clear cut. For example, sending the very latest MBT that nations are still buying or X drone defense weapon that's likely not to work very well. Better to keep that stuff away from Ukraine to avoid possible embarrassments or uncomfortable questions. Notably Rheinmetall did offer the Panther and Lynx to ukraine and as far as i can tell the Lynx production line in ukraine is in the process of being set up. The Panther was also supposed to be produced there but being mostly still a prototype seems to have put that on hold. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: For sure it is complex. Something this big with this much money at stake can't ever be anything other than complex! Many companies have very good products to sell, such as the various air defense systems, ATGMs, stand off weapons (Storm Shadow), artillery, basic infantry weaponry, IED resistant trucks, and of course things like counter battery systems, comms, and other basic military necessities. They have already passed the tests and therefore the more in Ukraine the better. There is also a large amount of stuff that is already bought that might as well send, like old Leopard 1s, M113s, Bradleys, older Abrams and Leopards, etc. In fact, since these are (largely) outdated there's a good pitch for the companies to make by saying "oh yes, see! We told you we should put another $1m worth of stuff on this tank. Maybe now you'll sign a contract". What I was talking more about are the things which are not so clear cut. For example, sending the very latest MBT that nations are still buying or X drone defense weapon that's likely not to work very well. Better to keep that stuff away from Ukraine to avoid possible embarrassments or uncomfortable questions. Really, what it boils down to is the realistic comfort level a defense company has that it's product will work as advertised. If I were in the corporate boardroom I would be looking to my engineers to tell me the truth before making any decisions. In the end, we're probably talking about a very small amount of stuff being deliberately withheld by nervous companies. However, it is probably the stuff that is most SHOULD go to Ukraine. APS being one of those, but also things like the Stryker mounted laser systems. Steve THIS! Edit: I will point out that being proven out in Ukraine has filled the order books for Patriot, NASSMS, Iris-T, Javelin, and HIMARS for the next hundred years. Edited July 11 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Speaking of field testing new kit... terminal guidance and autopilot add-on package for FPV drones. "The guidance system provides optical lock-on: the operator identifies the target and flags it for the autopilot while the drone is well outside jamming range. Then it can carry on through the ‘jamming bubble’ even if the operator loses contact." "The Skynode S autopilot was unveiled last week but is already on the frontline in Ukraine. The ability to lock on from long range makes jamming useless; I have seen a number of combat videos which I cannot share for security reasons, and caveats apply, but as far as can be judged, the system looks effective." "Meier [Auterion CEO Dr Lorenz Meier] says that their AI terminal guidance system used in Ukraine has hit every target in the initial deployment so far, compared to 20%-40% for FPVs controlled by a human. He does not expect to maintain an unbroken run of successes but believes they can continue to achieve a significantly higher rate than human pilots." “We are offering a ‘Ukraine Aid’ price point in Ukraine a,” says Meier. “Generally it is priced in the range of an Android phone, mid-hundreds of U.S. dollars.” And, to put a smile on dan/california's face... “Skynode S … will be produced in the tens of thousands, introducing unprecedented scale,” says Meier. From an article in Forbes (paywalled after 4 free views) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/07/10/destroying-russian-tanks-is-just-the-start-for-us-ai-drone-autopilot/ 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 (edited) 10 hours ago, cesmonkey said: AU defence minister announced we're adding ~$250M to the pot If you take a look at his twitter Zelensky has been a very busy man this past week. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa More interesting news Quote Several thousand people have registered to join the Ukrainian legion in Poland, according to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sikorski announced that Poland is starting to prepare the first Ukrainian brigade made up of volunteers living in Poland. Many of them want to serve but insist on receiving proper training and equipment before being sent into combat. And details of latest package from the US Edited July 11 by Fenris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: In fairness Trophy has been shown to work against Kornet, which is pretty up there in terms of lethal ATGM capability, its not like the Russians are using anything more capable on the man portable front. (though I am curious if Trophy can defend against helicopter based ATGMs) The number of interceptions is likely now in the multiple hundreds with the Gaza situation, though we are lacking data on that front and presumably most of it is RPG-7 and RPG-29. Hamas certainly seem to think it an issue enough that they need to develop specific tactics against it though. Over 5k firing tests is nothing to snuff at either. fairness to whom? The suggestion of 100's of successful interceptions is based on what? To my knowledge, very little combat info has come out of Gaza and frankly, the M1 did very well against AT weapons in Iraq as well without any APS defenses. It is the EFPs that are more the problem in an urban battleground. As to Hamas developing specific tactics... the only thing that proves to me is that Trophy still has weaknesses just like any other system. This from an opponent that doesn't even have the resources that Iraqis or Syrian insurgents had. Firing tests are not combat situation events. The world changes drastically when your opponent cheats in every way possible. What you didn't answer was how well would the IDF be doing in a near peer conflict like Ukraine. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 28 minutes ago, Sojourner said: Speaking of field testing new kit... terminal guidance and autopilot add-on package for FPV drones. "The guidance system provides optical lock-on: the operator identifies the target and flags it for the autopilot while the drone is well outside jamming range. Then it can carry on through the ‘jamming bubble’ even if the operator loses contact." "The Skynode S autopilot was unveiled last week but is already on the frontline in Ukraine. The ability to lock on from long range makes jamming useless; I have seen a number of combat videos which I cannot share for security reasons, and caveats apply, but as far as can be judged, the system looks effective." "Meier [Auterion CEO Dr Lorenz Meier] says that their AI terminal guidance system used in Ukraine has hit every target in the initial deployment so far, compared to 20%-40% for FPVs controlled by a human. He does not expect to maintain an unbroken run of successes but believes they can continue to achieve a significantly higher rate than human pilots." “We are offering a ‘Ukraine Aid’ price point in Ukraine a,” says Meier. “Generally it is priced in the range of an Android phone, mid-hundreds of U.S. dollars.” And, to put a smile on dan/california's face... “Skynode S … will be produced in the tens of thousands, introducing unprecedented scale,” says Meier. From an article in Forbes (paywalled after 4 free views) https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/07/10/destroying-russian-tanks-is-just-the-start-for-us-ai-drone-autopilot/ It was a matter of time. A decent swarm algorithm and terrain hugging and we are essentially at a WMD. This, is the scary door. When do autonomous unmanned swarms cross the line to WMD? We do not have math for that. But that is what it may take to break deadlocks - sanitize and advance. This is pretty much the same calculation for chemical and tac nukes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 4 minutes ago, sburke said: fairness to whom? The suggestion of 100's of successful interceptions is based on what? To my knowledge, very little combat info has come out of Gaza and frankly, the M1 did very well against AT weapons in Iraq as well without any APS defenses. It is the EFPs that are more the problem in an urban battleground. As to Hamas developing specific tactics... the only thing that proves to me is that Trophy still has weaknesses just like any other system. This from an opponent that doesn't even have the resources that Iraqis or Syrian insurgents had. Firing tests are not combat situation events. The world changes drastically when your opponent cheats in every way possible. What you didn't answer was how well would the IDF be doing in a near peer conflict like Ukraine. You see how the “well it is older tech” argument gets ignored when supporting APS? The Kornet was introduced in 1998: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M133_Kornet So when the tech supports a certain argument it is “a fine system.” When it doesn’t “well it is 25 years old”. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 21 minutes ago, The_Capt said: You see how the “well it is older tech” argument gets ignored when supporting APS? The Kornet was introduced in 1998: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M133_Kornet So when the tech supports a certain argument it is “a fine system.” When it doesn’t “well it is 25 years old”. One wonders why you are only working for the Canadian Defense Force ? and have not been cherry picked up by a Big Think Tank ? You seem to have a complete grasp of the future developments in all branches of military technology - It really is quite impressive . Your thinking on a lot of the topics being discussed here with such ferocity could be saving various Western Governments literally Billions if not Trillions of dollars . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Just now, keas66 said: One wonders why you are only working for the Canadian Defense Force ? and have not been cherry picked up by a Big Think Tank ? You seem to have a complete grasp of the future developments in all branches of military technology - It really is quite impressive . Your thinking on a lot of the topics being discussed here with such ferocity could be saving various Western Governments literally Billions if not Trillions of dollars . And how do you know that I am not already in one? Definitely not a compete grasp. If I can make a claim it is that I have spent a lot of effort and time exploring what we do not know…and it is a vast space. I do not lay down my credentials because most would not believe them. That said, I have been working at a national military advice level for over ten years. I have worked strategy/policy, force development, operational and tactical levels of command, two wars and a bunch of smaller crappy ops. I was on the team that saved Canada over +2 billion on one occasion of bad capability ideas. And on the side I teach the next generation coming up at our war college. But in the end as far as this little corner of the internet is concerned, I am in fine company. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 15 minutes ago, sburke said: As to Hamas developing specific tactics... the only thing that proves to me is that Trophy still has weaknesses just like any other system. I think the the idea is that its very much complicating the kill-chain on the vehicles, so its vastly more effort to destroy them than vehicles without the system. Especially when Hamas rely so heavily on shoulder fired rockets and atgms to deal with armour. 15 minutes ago, sburke said: What you didn't answer was how well would the IDF be doing in a near peer conflict like Ukraine. I dont think really anyone is able to say what would happen with such a hypothetical. The IDF is a force built for its situation in Israel. I would hazard the assumption which is if the APS works again Kornets and other atgms (which there is evidence to support) then Merkeva would be doing better than a lot of other tanks on the battlefield in Ukraine, even with all the drones flying around currently. As for Capts point about Kornet, yes its a several decade system, its still entirely relevant and seen as a gold standard when it comes to the ability to penetrate MBTs frontally. There is really not much better than it when it comes to overall performance in an ATGM outside of very expensive things like Javelin. Its exactly what an APS system should be designed to protect you from, since your really not going to feasibly plaster enough conventional protection on a vehicle to stop those sorts of warheads reliably. (Certainly not a chance for anything outside of frontal armour) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Seems a lot of systemic issues still remain prevalent in the RU forces. The drone stuff in particular is of huge importance. Might we potentially see a growing advantage from the AFU in FPVs? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 8 hours ago, FancyCat said: Maybe fair was wrong word, how does attempting to kill the CEO of one of Europe's most important arms manufacturers benefit Russia? The attempted assassination was foiled by U.S intelligence sharing the the info to Germany. Incidentally.... My god..can we add treason ? The US definitely benefits from the rules based order which it has led (reserve currency for example). Do people really want to topple this? I just want to cry thinking about November. My apologies for the diversion (just a concerned neighbour) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 (edited) 6 hours ago, dan/california said: If the pro armor/APS crowd is so convinced that current APS is effective then all it has to do to prove the point is ship a couple of brigades worth of equipped vehicles to Ukraine. There's a couple of reasons this is not happening. One is that western nations are sending their older equipment first and APS is only present on the newest versions. The other is that all western APS systems presently fielded are Israeli made and would presumably require Israeli permission to re-export. Note that we have not seen Spike NLOS or any other version of Spike in Ukraine despite thousands of them in NATO inventories. I don't think we should interpret that to mean Spike doesn't work. Edited July 12 by Vanir Ausf B 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said: There's a couple of reasons this is not happening. One is that western nations are sending their older equipment first and APS is only present on the newest versions. The other is that all western APS systems presently fielded are Israeli made and would presumably require Israeli permission to re-export. Note that we have not seen Spike NLOS or any other version of Spike in Ukraine despite thousands of them in NATO inventories. I don't think we should interpret that to mean Spike doesn't work. We know Spike works in CT as well but it also has never been tested in this sort of environment. It is not a question of “APS working” it is a question of APS working in a high intensity peer conventional warfare environment. Right now on the entire planet that is the Russo-Ukraine War. APS working in COIN is not nothing but it is not a broad indicator of it working everywhere. How does APS handle multiple targets? Tandem incoming targets? Spoofing and decoys? All aspect attacks? What is its logistics bill? Is it easy to maintain? Does it need replacements or hi tech servicing? How does it hold up after being shelled by old school artillery? Seriously there are roughly about a thousand questions about APS in the context of Ukraine and we basically get “well it works in Gaza”. Meanwhile the roughly thousand posted open source examples of the problem in Ukraine gets “well you see these may be isolated cases” and “let’s not over inflate.” You can see how that gets old after awhile. Frankly at this point I really don’t care if something “works” unless it will work in Ukraine…the war we are talking about on this thread. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 17 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Frankly at this point I really don’t care if something “works” unless it will work in Ukraine…the war we are talking about on this thread. I think people have different ideas about what it means to "work". I am unaware of any technical limitation that would prevent it from working most of the time in Ukraine, or anywhere else, but it's not an invincibility shield. The US Army claims a 70% interception rate for the Iron Fist APS on the Bradley in their "challenging and rigorous testing" (their words, not mine) and apparently consider that good enough to be worth it* No one should expect APS to revolutionize warfare. It's one tool in the tool box. * Interestingly, an earlier version only achieved a 50% intercept rate, which was deemed not good enough. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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