How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, it doesn't have to last long. Only until West gives up support, which might be as soon as this November:

Exclusive: Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/?utm_source=reddit.com

I think Putin sees the light at the end of the tunnel.

and that light could easily be an oncoming train if he loses.  If that is Putin's plan to survive, he is in worse shape than I thought.  He's down to a coin toss.

[A Canadian Cat]

On 6/25/2024 at 1:27 PM, ArmouredTopHat said:

There needs to be a long hard think about vehicle protection and countermeasures overall for future design to any vehicle operating within the battlespace where FPV drones are prevalent. 
 

I expect to see a major shift towards these things being on the battlefield in far greater numbers. 

The whole time I was watching this video I was thinking - any second now the FPV drone feed would cut out as it hits the target.

Are they sure they want to use drone footage for advertising this?

[A Canadian Cat]

21 hours ago, dan/california said:

We need to red team a LOT of things like that, and actually do something about the results. Or someone is going to do it for us, with live ammo. They wouldn't dare was mortally wounded...

I get what you are saying but the fact is there haven't been attacks of the scope of 911 since 2011 and Hamas has seen a very nasty reaction to its recent foray. If anything these groups should be taking the message they they will regret it form recent history.

Of course the issue there is the people that actually call the shots did not suffer, only their proxies. For that reason I agree we should be planning for and setting up counters for scenarios like that.

[A Canadian Cat]

22 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Whether or not the tank is dead or should be dead there seems to be no debate that IFVs and APCs are not dead, which means they have to be protected. I could see a future in which the tank evolves into a dedicated anti-drone platform.

Anything that rides along with IFVs or APCs might as well be build on the same platform. No need for tank - again.

22 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I also think IFVs and APCs will continue their evolution into being tanks with passengers.

Ah I see what you did there - just rename something useful a "tank" bingo tanks aren't dead.  

[Kraft]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

I seriously doubt NK will supply enough to impact Russia's troop shortage.  Language issues alone preclude them from doing much.  Coordination in Russian forces is already bad.  Imagine a Korean unit trying to coordinate pretty much anything with Russian leadership.  They'd be better off assigning them to civilian labor jobs to free up Russians to send to the front.

I recommend to watch the translated chronicles of the chinese exPLA soldier who liberally talks about such issues and how long these foreigners last (about a day or two)

They are not used for the more complex trench clearing or working with vehicles, they are being sent forward in settlements, where russian commanders simply throw them into the 1st line to expose defenses and get eaten by drones while more capable units maneuver, drop artillery and so on. 

As to how many of them it'll be, we'll see. I doubt it is limited by NK but rather China, who will gauge the extent of western reactions to this escalations, so there may be more if the response is not firm.

Edited Wednesday at 08:08 PM by Kraft

[LongLeftFlank]

On 6/25/2024 at 5:18 PM, The_Capt said:

As I have said before, NK is the international relations equivalent to the creepy kid who likes to burn bugs while touching himself. 

(GoT had some truly inspired dialogue, although Martin borrowed a huge amount from the Church Fathers: Jerome, Ambrose, Augustine, etc.)

Kuh-kuh-kuh!

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/osirskiy/744
 

Quote

Worked in Donetsk region. He visited the combat brigades that maintain the defense on one of the hottest areas of the front. Our courageous defenders here repel dozens of attacks by Russian invaders every day.

In particular, these are soldiers of the 25th separate airborne brigade. Heroic people who deftly and decisively destroy the invaders. The brigade has been defending our land since the first days of Russian aggression. Now, in the course of fierce fighting, Czechoslovak paratroopers continue to confidently hold back the Russian onslaught on one of the most important sections of the contact line.

He also honored the soldiers, sergeants and officers of the 110th separate mechanized brigade. They desperately fight against the overwhelming forces of the occupiers and are a true example of courage and patriotism.

He presented awards to the personnel of 47 separate mechanized brigades. "Magura" soldiers skilfully repulse enemy attacks, effectively use means of fire damage to the equipment and personnel of the enemy, firmly hold occupied lines and positions.

He also thanked the personnel of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade. Strong-minded, motivated and skilled warriors. They reliably hold the defense and resolutely beat the aggressor.

Thank you to all Ukrainian defenders who are currently fighting for our freedom and independence.
I note the dedication of everyone who bravely defends Ukraine, our home, and our people.

Together we will win!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 2/3/2023 at 10:15 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

I think I predicted Norks showing up in Russian service back on page 300 or so. One of the best income earners for the Kim dynasty for decades has been to supply loggers and miners to Siberian enterprises, the dirty, cold and hazardous work formerly done by Gulag zeks.

...OK, so they're about a year and a quarter behind schedule?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yeah, it doesn't have to last long. Only until West gives up support, which might be as soon as this November:

Exclusive: Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/?utm_source=reddit.com

I think Putin sees the light at the end of the tunnel.

He hasn't won yet...

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

The appropriate response to this is finally allowing the Ukrainians to stand up a new version of the Flying Tigers, and get a hundred F-16s in the field by the end of summer instead a dozen, maybe, barely.

Mate, I must respectfully disagree with this: the Are We Winning(R) metric for the entire war will instantly become obsessively focused in US-centric media with dead American airmen (and PoWs!) in a way that Chennault never had to deal with.

And there will be no corresponding metric for 'Yes, We Are Winning' beyond dead Russian airmen, and promoting that on the nightly news is basically tapdancing on the edge of Armageddon, as @The_Capt hath rightly taught us.

....Now if you mean a joint Ukrainian-multinational pilots group that is neither US commanded, dominated or overrepresented, then maybe. But I don't really know how much better Western crews are than Ukes, really. Might ground crews and a Western support train be a stronger contribution?

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Czechoslovak paratroopers

????

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mate, I must respectfully disagree with this: the Are We Winning(R) metric for the entire war will instantly become obsessively focused in US-centric media with dead American airmen (and PoWs!) in a way that Chennault never had to deal with.

And there will be no corresponding metric for 'Yes, We Are Winning' beyond dead Russian airmen, and promoting that on the nightly news is basically tapdancing on the edge of Armageddon, as @The_Capt hath rightly taught us.

....Now if you mean a joint Ukrainian-multinational pilots group that is neither US commanded, dominated or overrepresented, then maybe. But I don't really know how much better Western crews are than Ukes, really. Might ground crews and a Western support train be a stronger contribution?

Allow me to clarify. I have a STRONG impression that NATO ++ is strongly discouraging retired pilots from signing up with Ukraine. They could sign up on the same basis volunteers do now. I think we should go from from discouraging it, to at last covertly encouraging it. The more multinational the people that show up, the better. At an absolute minimum this should be ready to roll out the second it is announced Trump has lost.

If Trump wins Ukraine won't even be the worst problem.

Edited Wednesday at 09:26 PM by dan/california

[FancyCat]

11 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Mate, I must respectfully disagree with this: the Are We Winning(R) metric for the entire war will instantly become obsessively focused in US-centric media with dead American airmen (and PoWs!) in a way that Chennault never had to deal with.

And there will be no corresponding metric for 'Yes, We Are Winning' beyond dead Russian airmen, and promoting that on the nightly news is basically tapdancing on the edge of Armageddon, as @The_Capt hath rightly taught us.

....Now if you mean a joint Ukrainian-multinational pilots group that is neither US commanded, dominated or overrepresented, then maybe. But I don't really know how much better Western crews are than Ukes, really. Might ground crews and a Western support train be a stronger contribution?

The Flying Tigers composed of airmen, ground crews, and the planes, and were considered volunteers to China, in the event of needing F-16 pilots of non-UKR citizenship, considering the amount of UKR personnel being trained is reportedly not enough to man the amount of pledged F-16s, might well be worth. Ground crews and contractors of course are needed in addition to pilots. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Anything that rides along with IFVs or APCs might as well be build on the same platform. No need for tank - again.

In the past having the tank based on a lighter chassis has ended poorly. It says a lot that most countries kept their MBTs instead of developing cheaper and lighter platforms outside of extreme terrain requirements. You can deride tanks a lot but they are literally less vulnerable to the FPVs that will happily blow lighter vehicles to bits. At least the tanks -can- sponge hits despite not being designed at all to be attacked in the way that they are. 

APS and the like can in theory protect a lighter vehicle, but really you want a good layer of reactive or composite armour on top just to be sure.

I really do think we will see a new generation of tanks that are lighter and smaller than their predecessors built more to withstand all round threats before we see larger fleets of UGVs (Or a mix of the two)

Because even in this current war, there is a need for something that can do this:

 

Edited Wednesday at 09:33 PM by ArmouredTopHat

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

OK, how many of you other Seventies kids played this arcade shooter in the pre-Pong/digital era? (took me a while to dig up the name)

Target images (mostly trucks!) were actual North Africa gun camera stills projected from a rotating disk. Nice loud plane sounds too!

Edited Wednesday at 10:16 PM by LongLeftFlank
#KillAllTheTrucks!

[cesmonkey]

 

[Fenris]

Example of defensive fighting.  Incoming artillery of various calibres and at least one FPV drone.

Quote

Kharkov direction, Colombian Ukrainian Armed Forces volunteer in battle (video slightly sped up, original here https:// t.me/russianocontex t/3721  )   

3rd Assault Brigade trench clearing.  Above and below clips say they are from near Kharkov

 

Edited Wednesday at 10:59 PM by Fenris

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

In the past having the tank based on a lighter chassis has ended poorly. It says a lot that most countries kept their MBTs instead of developing cheaper and lighter platforms outside of extreme terrain requirements. You can deride tanks a lot but they are literally less vulnerable to the FPVs that will happily blow lighter vehicles to bits. At least the tanks -can- sponge hits despite not being designed at all to be attacked in the way that they are. 

APS and the like can in theory protect a lighter vehicle, but really you want a good layer of reactive or composite armour on top just to be sure.

I really do think we will see a new generation of tanks that are lighter and smaller than their predecessors built more to withstand all round threats before we see larger fleets of UGVs (Or a mix of the two)

Because even in this current war, there is a need for something that can do this:

 

Other than maybe getting an artillery battery to expose itself to counter-battery fire, what happened in this video that couldn't have been done by artillery? This was not a coordinated combined arms assault, it was was bleeping dangerous gun run, and I would have see some medium strong proof it was worth the risk the tank took. 

Edited Wednesday at 11:39 PM by dan/california

[FancyCat]

In April, the 153rd was reorg to a infantry brigade, now reorg back to mechanized. 

https://militaryland.net/news/153rd-brigade-is-mechanized-again/

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Other than maybe getting an artillery battery to expose itself to counter-battery fire, what happened in this video that couldn't have been done by artillery? This was not a coordinated combined arms assault, it was was bleeping dangerous gun run, and I would have see some medium strong proof it was worth the risk the tank took. 

Speed of response and better accuracy on target due to direct fire. Given the UA saying that Excalibur is not working well due to jamming and even considering the accuracy of 155 NATO, it still takes time and a few shots on target to strike accurately. Arty is also a valuable asset that as you say has its own issues of dealing with counter bat and loitering munitions. Artillery might be a 'safer' option but its not one that can be available all the time. You cant support infantry in their trench directly with an artillery piece either. There is clearly still value with direct fire even if indirect is increasingly supreme.

Think of it in a combat mission format: It takes time to coordinate and get the artillery on target and that might require correction, whereas a tank can simply be radioed into position and handle the problem from a respectable range. 

From the footage, it looks like the tank is cleaning up a failed assault, or some sort of target up in the open. This is quite literally a perfect role for the tank that can pull up quickly, move while under fire while striking the targets on the move and then leaving unscathed, whilst also surviving munitions sent to kill it. (You see what looks like a grad or other rocket strike land very near as well, something that would have shredded anything lighter) 

Edited Thursday at 12:27 AM by ArmouredTopHat

[cesmonkey]

 

[Blazing 88's]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

In the past having the tank based on a lighter chassis has ended poorly. It says a lot that most countries kept their MBTs instead of developing cheaper and lighter platforms outside of extreme terrain requirements. You can deride tanks a lot but they are literally less vulnerable to the FPVs that will happily blow lighter vehicles to bits. At least the tanks -can- sponge hits despite not being designed at all to be attacked in the way that they are. 

APS and the like can in theory protect a lighter vehicle, but really you want a good layer of reactive or composite armour on top just to be sure.

I really do think we will see a new generation of tanks that are lighter and smaller than their predecessors built more to withstand all round threats before we see larger fleets of UGVs (Or a mix of the two).......

German beast, The EMBT ADT140: ‘World’s most powerful’ tank packs triple threat firepower
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/german-beast-world-s-most-powerful-tank-packs-triple-threat-firepower/ar-BB1oVn8y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=25be74d5740f42a1b013e028e0db19c8&ei=9

"...This could include engaging enemy infantry in trenches one moment and setting Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles on fire the next. 30mm guns can also be armed with shells featuring proximity fuses that detonate as soon as the target is within lethal range.

This will make them effective anti-drone weapons. The EMBT ADT140 range of guns should enable the tank to engage and destroy various targets. This will prove pivotal in an evolving warspace where conventional and novel threats (also known as drones) can come from anywhere..."

Edited Thursday at 12:43 AM by Blazing 88's

[dan/california]

53 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

German beast, The EMBT ADT140: ‘World’s most powerful’ tank packs triple threat firepower
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/german-beast-world-s-most-powerful-tank-packs-triple-threat-firepower/ar-BB1oVn8y?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=25be74d5740f42a1b013e028e0db19c8&ei=9

"...This could include engaging enemy infantry in trenches one moment and setting Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles on fire the next. 30mm guns can also be armed with shells featuring proximity fuses that detonate as soon as the target is within lethal range.

This will make them effective anti-drone weapons. The EMBT ADT140 range of guns should enable the tank to engage and destroy various targets. This will prove pivotal in an evolving warspace where conventional and novel threats (also known as drones) can come from anywhere..."

Two secondary turrets, four different ammo calibers, very few rounds for the main gun. Are they just trying to prove

The_Capt right?

[ArmouredTopHat]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two secondary turrets, four different ammo calibers, very few rounds for the main gun. Are they just trying to prove

The_Capt right?

The ammunition issue is only a thing if they actually go for the 140mm gun, which I doubt. Such guns have been in experimental vehicles for decades now and they were never seriously adopted as a requirement. 

Still, the other systems seem novel, even if if the project remains experimental. Its exactly the sort of things I figured would be floated around as potential solutions. What I would give to see a vehicle with a proper drone APS countermeasures in testing. I am honestly fascinated if such systems would work practically and to what degree. Everything from being entirely worthless to literally rendering FPVs useless is possible. 

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

What I would give to see a vehicle with a proper drone APS countermeasures in testing. I am honestly fascinated if such systems would work practically and to what degree.

I want to see the testing too, but the RIGHT testing. You take Magyars Birds best unit, make up some paint ball warheads, and tell Magyars boys they get paid if they paint it yellow. Pass THAT test, and i will begin to believe.