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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Has a map so worth showing despite same info.

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Russian sources report that overnight, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple Russian air defense installations in occupied Crimea with US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS.  2 S-300/400 SAM systems and 4 radars were targeted in the Dzhankoy, Yevpatoriya, and Chornomorske areas.

Rybar and Astra report that the Russian 31st Air Defense Division took a severe hit, with several causalities.   Fighterbomber claims that Russian air defense officers are lying to their superiors.

https://t.me/fighter_bomber/17009

https://t.me/rybar/60807

https://t.me/astrapress/57292

 

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4 hours ago, zinz said:

Thanks for posting this.  I'll be reading it in full later on, but the synopsis is what I was expecting to see... inexperienced TD unit with poor leadership was unfortunately in a key position and things went badly from there.

I remember as a youngster learning about war through actions on the Eastern Front.  There were many instances where the Soviets hit the German line in places that were weak explicitly because of the unit that happened to be there.  That's when I learned that when looking at a map the details matter :)

Unfortunately, Ukraine has never had enough quality regular forces to consistently man all points on the line on any given day.  TD and lower quality regular units, therefore, have to be relied upon.

What I think we see now is that Ukraine simply didn't have enough resources to pull good forces from other positions to adequately prepare for the Russian offensive.

Steve

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40 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

Starting to make sense why Wagner has more or less zero presence in Ukraine anymore...

This is a lesson for those who find it difficult to believe Ukrainian (and even Russian!) sources about stunning loss of life on the Russian side.  Time and time again we've seen people doubting that the Russians could really lose X men in Y situation.  Time and time again it seems when the dust settles those losses are confirmed.

Steve

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44 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

Starting to make sense why Wagner has more or less zero presence in Ukraine anymore...

I didn't read your links because I don't trust "X" these days.  When I click they kid me I am in an Apple environment and then start collecting passwords.  Maybe I am overly paranoid but I do not intend to give X the passwords for my home server environment and definitely not my Apple ID.  Be careful please or reassure me I am paranoid.  

Re the data I am surprised the numbers are not greater.  They were running at the guns in a street fighting mode for 6 months or more.  When you add a percentage for MIA and wounded you wonder why there is no uprising in the ranks or among those back home.

I wonder too why there is no visible kickback from Wagner after these losses and the elimination of their leadership.  They can't all be dead or reassigned to Africa.  Now I'll read the other replies - sorry if I am being repetitive.

Edited by Astrophel
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4 hours ago, zinz said:

Interesting point about the inadequate fortifications. Nayyem, the guy responsible for these works and much more besides, has just "resigned".  He is busy mobilising a lot of friends among the donor community - see the Financial Times report today.   Is there a connection do you think?

 

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How can you make the power grid resilient to failures in face of Russia? Are solar panels on each building and inverters practical, especially in areas of smaller buildings? How many larger buildings are Soviet-style central heat and water?

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29 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

How can you make the power grid resilient to failures in face of Russia? Are solar panels on each building and inverters practical, especially in areas of smaller buildings? How many larger buildings are Soviet-style central heat and water?

Generally decentralizing the power grid would be the way to go. So, yes solar panels everywhere. Well, we've kind of been in the process of doing that for years, so that is not going to happen in half a year. Much less so keeping in mind that China is the no. 1 supplier...

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55 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

How can you make the power grid resilient to failures in face of Russia? Are solar panels on each building and inverters practical, especially in areas of smaller buildings? How many larger buildings are Soviet-style central heat and water?

I saw a report a few days ago that Ukraine is chartering three ships from Turkey that are specifically for the production of electricity. IIRC each one can produce something like 25 megawatts ( I may well be mis-remembering the number as it means very little to me)

The only links I can find are old but I'm sure I saw something recently

https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112576007557129791

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Ukraine is negotiating with Türkiye about the lease of power plant ships.

They have powerful ships that produce, for example, 250 MW. We are studying the issue of involving three of them: in Izmail, in Odesa and [port] Pivdennyi", - head of Odesa regional administration.

 

Edited by Eddy
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12 minutes ago, Eddy said:

I saw a report a few days ago that Ukraine is chartering three ships from Turkey that are specifically for the production of electricity. IIRC each one can produce something like 25 megawatts ( I may well be mis-remembering the number as it means very little to me)

The only links I can find are old but I'm sure I saw something recently

Couldn't find anything more recent.  The primary holdup seems to be the security concerns for deployment.

 

This is from Dec 2022.

Turkey’s Karpowership hoping to place three floating power plants near Odesa (yahoo.com)

 

"We’re discussing with the Odesa governorate and Ukraine's electricity utility Ukrenergo to put three powerships close to Odesa with a total output of 300 megawatts," said Zeynep Haresi, a member of the Karpowership's board of directors for commercial operations.

According to Nikkei Asia, the ships would be able to generate enough electricity to provide power to 1 million homes.

Harezi noted that the vessels could be used only if security conditions are met. She suggested that the deal may require UN support, citing the grain deal brokered by Turkey as an example.

"Depending on need and approvals, we could do it within this year," Harezi stated.

"The ships are ready and commissioned. We can deploy them in as little as three weeks.”

Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo is yet to comment on the situation, but a Ukrainian source familiar with the talks said that commercial negotiations are underway.

Karpowership is the flagship company of Turkey’s Karadeniz Holding. The firm has a fleet of 36 “powerships” running on fuel oil or natural gas. Connection to local power grids takes less than a month. Such vessels are mainly intended for countries with underdeveloped infrastructure, and are also used in emergencies.

Earlier, Russian media reported that Russian LNG producer Novatek had asked Karpowership to supply electricity for the Arctic LNG 2 project. According to Kharezi, the company has indeed received such an offer, but is not negotiating with the Russian side.

 

Jan 2023 article now discussing 500mw output

Ukraine inks tentative energy deal with Turkish 'powership' company - Nikkei Asia

 

 

As to solar my system puts out about 50% more than I need which gets fed back into the grid.  Installation took 2 days.  I do not have battery backup which simplifies deployment and cost.  The newer systems create their own mini grid when it sees a loss of power from the utility grid.  As a longer term option it can help decrease demand on the grid and facilitate rebuilding, but not really feasible as an immediate response.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, sburke said:

hmm a year and a half later and still talking.  The previous articles suggested parking off Romania or Moldova.  Wonder if that is still on the table or just problematic

Yep, although it's more urgent now than even a few months ago so hopefully they will get to an agreement.

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2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Generally decentralizing the power grid would be the way to go. So, yes solar panels everywhere. Well, we've kind of been in the process of doing that for years, so that is not going to happen in half a year. Much less so keeping in mind that China is the no. 1 supplier...

China has quite a large surplus in production capacity for solar panels. With the latest punitive tariffs on those in the US (IIRC) they will not be picky about whom to sell to.

Friend of mine got his panels installed by some Ukrainian guys. He bought the option for an isolator so that you can run the system independently if there is a blackout. The Ukrainians told him he was stupid to do so in Germany, whereas in Ukraine everyone had that. :)

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16 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-making-own-bombs-counter-russian-devastation-us-ones-jam-2024-6?international=true&r=US&IR=T&utm_source=reddit.com

This topic again. Does this mean NATO isn't giving Ukraine the good stuff, or is Western kit just fundamentally flawed?

Could also be to make up for numbers. The French are giving 50 glide bombs per month. The Russian use 500 every other day.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/russia-women-inmates-ukraine.html

Russia Releases Female Prison Inmates to Join Ukraine War

Tens of thousands of male convicts have been freed to fight in Ukraine. It is not clear if a small contingent of female volunteers released from a prison portends wider use of female soldiers.

 

 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/moscow-russia-ukraine-war.html

 

Now, after two years of war, with the Kremlin’s early military stumbles in Ukraine receding in memory, the mood in Russia is increasingly upbeat.

“The word ‘victory’ is everywhere in Moscow these days,” a New York Times Russia correspondent, Valerie Hopkins, reported recently.

 

We are winning, also we are forcibly recruiting female convicts to feed the meat grinder. Both of these articles can't be right.

 

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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for posting this.  I'll be reading it in full later on, but the synopsis is what I was expecting to see... inexperienced TD unit with poor leadership was unfortunately in a key position and things went badly from there.

I remember as a youngster learning about war through actions on the Eastern Front.  There were many instances where the Soviets hit the German line in places that were weak explicitly because of the unit that happened to be there.  That's when I learned that when looking at a map the details matter :)

Unfortunately, Ukraine has never had enough quality regular forces to consistently man all points on the line on any given day.  TD and lower quality regular units, therefore, have to be relied upon.

What I think we see now is that Ukraine simply didn't have enough resources to pull good forces from other positions to adequately prepare for the Russian offensive.

Steve

Really, retreating of TD unit wasn't critical here, because main strike Russians conducted in other place. 115th mech.brigade is the same one, which units fled from own positions in Siverodonetsk in 2022, which ruined the front. Level of officers of high and middle levels was very low, they didn't care about training and cohering of own personnel. Since Siverodonetsk brigade has changed three commanders, but still one of the worst brigades. I bet, commander regularly was sending reports to higher levels "It's all right. Battalions are equipped on proper level, personnel trained and motivated, brigade is ready to execute any tasks" - usual practice in Soviet and all post-Soviet armies, where no matter what is real situation, but only good reports to higher chief  matter. Thus, higher chiefs, looking on these reports consider it's true and include this brigade in the order of battle. Further you can see what happened. We are very lucky, that in Russian army this practice exists in much more scale. 

Edited by Haiduk
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Yesterday many media wrote about "first strike of Ukrianian aviation on Russian soil". In really not the first, but, well. The strike took place indeed and hit command post of 6th CAA, involved in operation in Kharkiv oblast (both northern Kharkiv and Kupiansk directions). Command center was deployed in recreation complex "Nezhegol" in Shebekino town of Belgorod oblast. Preliminary result of strike - at least 8 officers of 6th CAA HQ are MIA. 

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At trhe same day other strike destroyed deployment point of Russian troops and their ammo dump, located in sport gym of the factory in Rakitnoye town - ouskirt of Belgorod. No reports about losses.

 

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About other reports that "UKR forces sank next Russian LLS in Azov Sea". Today the speaker of Naval Forces refuted this news. Recently some OSINTers have spotted on fresh sattelite maps some suspicious vessel and big oil spot. They assessed the lenght of the vessel in 96 m and made assumption that not LLS was hit (113-117 m), but probably patrol ship pr. 22160, having 94 m of lenght. No evidences of this too yet.

But here is footage from Russian tugboat, towing the barge that was supposed to be used like element of boom barrier, defending Kerch bridge. The drone hit the barge in Taganrog Gulf. Because of claimed "the barge got damages in upper hull" more likley this was aerial drone. The tugboat also got light damage, two sailors were wounded. Very likely first rumors of this attack was pushed by media as "LLS was hit" 

 

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I wonder is Budanov smiles now?

Reportedly In Barentsev Sea "Admiral Levchenko" pr.1155 ASW-frigade (some media mistakingly named it as "destroyer") is on fire. Aleegedly because of engine failure.

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Edited by Haiduk
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Fresh detaiuled satellite photos of Akhtubinsk airfield where Su-57 were hit

Russian TG Fighterbomber claims not one, but two Su-57 got damages. But he writes the second jet got very light damages, which will be  repaired on airfield. The second jet was damaged much badly and now will be assesments about feasibility of repair. Fighterbomber claims this damged Su-57 is a prototype and wasn't involved in combat work, so mayve by this reason this aircraft may not be repaired. 

In 2010-2017 total 10 flying prototypes and test batch aircrafts were produced. Serial producing was launched in 2019 and first serial batch had to be 12 Su-57. Total number of orderd jets is 76 for rearmament of three fighter aviation reginents up to 2028. By assesment 15 Su-57 now in service (including first 10 prototypes), but only half of them are combat ready. 

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 Image

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Speaker of Air Forces Command told in own interview that Ukraine through several weeks at last will strart tests of own kits for converting usual bombs to gliding bombs - analog of JDAM-ER. It's very sad, first offers of development of such devices were as far as in 2017-18, but neither General Staff, nor MoD didn't interested in this. GS because own dumb Soviet conservatism, MoD because "who will pay for this?" We lost several years, in that time when Russia actively researched and experimented with own UMPK proigram and Turkey already had own kits for converting usual FABs to guided bombs, which they supplied to Azerbaidzhan and theese weapon was very effective

Also he told that Su-25 were adopted for French AASM/Hammer missile-bombs . He said in first year of war Su-25 exhausted almost all stocks of unguided rockets. In next years there were supplies of these rockets from other countries and Zuni rockets from USA, but they also were almost waisted. So, was made a decision to adopt Su-25 to precision weapon, beacuse renewing of unguided rockets on the west was not feasible.

 

 

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