How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cyrano01]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

Now link those two guys to UAS who can see all that hardware from 10kms away and tell the ATGM team exactly what field to be in.  You heard the guy in the video “we stopped the column”.  Two men and a single Javelin system.  

Exactly;  when he said 'we are given a firing position'  that kind of suggests maybe they are being guided into place by someone with a UAS.

[LongLeftFlank]

That said, dividing all the above figures by 2 *may* yield a credible estimate for AFU losses since the start of the war.  Perun talks a little about this in one of his recent vids.

2.  Maybe some NAFO fellas could generate a long festive video of RU vehicles blazing like torches to play in place of those Yule log videos.

 

3. Short but interesting clip of UA drone strikes on RU emplacements. No gore, but good details. Note covered trenches. A couple months old based on foliage.

4. 14 minute BBC doco on the fate of Russia's 155th Marines. Probably a little dumbed down for this board but well done for lay audiences; core of the tactical analysis is minutes 8 - 10.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Interesting thread by DavidD SecretSqrl on the Bradley (I'm not an armour grog and DavidD can be hit or miss, but he does seem to have a fair amount of hands on US Army experience with Brads).

 

2.  For what it's worth, comments by a German expert.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3801146-situation-on-front-lines-in-ukraine-not-hopeless-german-expert.html

Nico Lange noted that many forget that 95% of the equipment donated by Ukraine's partners had not been used during the counteroffensive....

Ukrainians continue to bet on exhaustion. "They are no longer trying to hold positions like they did in Bakhmut. Instead, they want to slow down the Russian troops and let them bleed."

"Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year," Lange said. One of their starting points could be the bridgehead in Kherson. With the necessary fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones, Ukraine could adequately support the advance of its troops, especially since there are almost no Russian fortifications in this region. 

I doubt that last remark on fortifications, but I heartily agree that the far left end of the Russian advance is a good place to strike, if only to force them to deplete their mobile forces responding. Not with mech though; mech is pretty much roadbound down here.

btw, there's a lot of hand wringing about the Russian air delivered heavy glide bombs hitting the Krynki bridgehead with 'impunity'. While I'd hate to be under these things, I look at that a little more glass half full; the Russians don't have enough artillery so they're forced to hunt an ant invasion using a sledgehammer.

Edited December 19, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Update on Wagnercolonel Salikov:

 

He was in Donetsk-region when MH-17was shot down. He says that some form of competition was going on between the Wagner-group and the separatists.

A few weeks before the downing of the MH-17, the Wagnergroup had shot down a Ukrainian army-plane in Luhansk-region and they got a lot of credit for that.

So, according to Salikov, the separatists decided that they had to shoot down a Ukrainian plane too, but through mistakes/stupidity they shot down MH-17.

(I never heard of this competition-story, so could be that he 's a credible source.)

https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/voormalig-wagner-officier-in-nederland-om-zich-bij-strafhof-te-melden-bevelen-voor-oorlogsmisdaden-kwamen-rechtstreeks-uit-het-kremlin/

I have not heard this competition story either.  It is totally believable.  A bunch of Alpha Males trying to impress important people?  What could possibly go wrong.

The underlying assumption by the ones who studied this event closely theorize that the "separatists" mistook MH-17 for an IL-76.  Indeed, one was shot down with a large loss of Ukrainian life (IIRC 45+ paratroopers) while trying to land at Luhansk airport (IIRC).

Part of the examination showed that the Buk was operating without its full radar complex.  They were also not in contact with Russian air defense networks.  This meant the targeting information available to the launch vehicle was of poorer quality.  Combine an inexperienced crew under pressure to produce a "trophy" and it is easy to see how MH-17 became a victim.

Other information indicates that the "separatists" were very aware they shot down the plane, but very shocked that it was a civilian airliner.  They of course immediately started a coverup for this mistake.

This is the most plausible account I have heard since the tragedy happened.  Speculation that the "separatists" planned on shooting down MH-17 on purpose do not make any sense and there is no evidence to support it.

With Russia, if the choice of story is between devious plot and incompetence, the safer bet is incompetence.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am pretty sure some old NCO said the same thing about Air Assault back in the day too.  No base of fire beyond what door guns can try to deliver and all nicely lined up in the sky.  “Sending troops by those damned whirly bird things!?”  In many ways helicopter assault is more dangerous than what we are talking about here.  Tac aviation is very visible and has specific systems designed to defeat it.

The fire base would be all those drones that are currently mauling the front lines right now.  We are talking about upscaling what SOF is already testing.  Sending a bridgehead force across a 500m minefield to try and secure the far bank - so think recon in force.  We may be a few years from full on battalion assaults.

Of course we could just keep sending them the old fashioned way - in all that steel that keeps getting blown up.  To my mind it is not application of the concept that is the problem.  It is production. Those systems are in early prototype stages right now.  Trying to get enough to sustain offensive operations is not likely going to be viable.

A supporting option would be UGVs to penetrate the minefield and then support infantry crossings.  This would be mutually supporting systems.  Of course our biggest problem may simply be complete lack of imagination or realization of just how much technology has changed the modern battlefield.

If only there was a good simulation to help work some of this out....

 

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Our famous Ukrainian sapper, who maintains a blog on YouTube dedicated to mines, claims that snow is a serious problem for the detonation of anti-personnel mines. Deep snow can also be a problem for the detonation of anti-tank mines, when a large amount of snow, when driven over by a wheel, is compacted around the fuse.

Moreover, burying an anti-tank mine too deeply in ordinary soil, when the fuse does not protrude above the surface of the ground, can also cause the anti-tank mine to fail to fire when even a tank caterpillar hits it. He describes the Taliban tactics, when an anti-tank mine installed in this way exploded not under the wheel of the lead vehicle in the column, but under the wheel of the middle car, after the wheels of the cars in front gradually pushed through the edges of the hole in which the mine was installed. In this way, an ambush on the convoy was simulated (the convoy thought that it was a shot from an RPG and not a mine explosion, since the first vehicles in the convoy passed without being detonated). Thus, the movement of convoys was greatly slowed down and logistics were disrupted

 

It needs mentioning here that "snow" is an extraordinarily variable thing. It is quite possible that 95% of the time the mines work more or less normally, but that there is some combination of thaw, refreeze, and more snow or freezing rain that would disable most mines temporarily. A question I am pondering very hard is could such circumstances be created by carefully controlled flooding somewhere. Find just the right low lying spot, knock down an otherwise inconsequential dyke, and create the conditions for a few kilometer stretch to freeze solid enough. to support at least light vehicles. It would probably have to be timed at warmish moment before a hard freeze. I realize that is a very complicated basis for a plan, but the entire defensive scheme on both sides in Ukraine depends on the assault being slowed enough to let all the supporting fires come to the party. If a couple of brigades of light vehicles could suddenly just floor it right through a section of the defenses things might get very lively.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Our famous Ukrainian sapper, who maintains a blog on YouTube dedicated to mines, claims that snow is a serious problem for the detonation of anti-personnel mines. Deep snow can also be a problem for the detonation of anti-tank mines, when a large amount of snow, when driven over by a wheel, is compacted around the fuse.

Moreover, burying an anti-tank mine too deeply in ordinary soil, when the fuse does not protrude above the surface of the ground, can also cause the anti-tank mine to fail to fire when even a tank caterpillar hits it. He describes the Taliban tactics, when an anti-tank mine installed in this way exploded not under the wheel of the lead vehicle in the column, but under the wheel of the middle car, after the wheels of the cars in front gradually pushed through the edges of the hole in which the mine was installed. In this way, an ambush on the convoy was simulated (the convoy thought that it was a shot from an RPG and not a mine explosion, since the first vehicles in the convoy passed without being detonated). Thus, the movement of convoys was greatly slowed down and logistics were disrupted

 

Thanks for this.  On top of what you wrote, Dan hinted at another issue... freezing.  Water goes wherever it wants to go, and when it freezes it can create any number of different problems.  Many of these mines have probably been sitting around in poor storage conditions and, perhaps, were of low quality to start with. This allows water to get into places that the mine is not designed for.  It freezes and reduces, if not eliminates, the ability of the mine to function as designed.

Funny enough, a few days ago I was retelling a story to someone about how my tractor seat has a "kill switch" in it that senses no weight on the seat, which then shuts off the engine.  Well, there was a small tear in the rubber seat cover.  Water eventually made its way through the foam cushion and to the switch.  It froze the switch in the "open" state, which meant no electricity to the starter.  I had to sit on the seat to warm it up and then violently bounce up and down dozens of times to get the switch to function correctly.  Under normal circumstances even 1/2 sitting up on the seat is enough to cut the engine.

Winter in a cold climate can be such fun!

Steve

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If only there was a good simulation to help work some of this out....

 

It needs mentioning here that "snow" is an extraordinarily variable thing. It is quite possible that 95% of the time the mines work more or less normally, but that there is some combination of thaw, refreeze, and more snow or freezing rain that would disable most mines temporarily. A question I am pondering very hard is could such circumstances be created by carefully controlled flooding somewhere. Find just the right low lying spot, knock down an otherwise inconsequential dyke, and create the conditions for a few kilometer stretch to freeze solid enough. to support at least light vehicles. It would probably have to be timed at warmish moment before a hard freeze. I realize that is a very complicated basis for a plan, but the entire defensive scheme on both sides in Ukraine depends on the assault being slowed enough to let all the supporting fires come to the party. If a couple of brigades of light vehicles could suddenly just floor it right through a section of the defenses things might get very lively.

That is why mines are laid in redundancy.  I just don’t see this as a reasonable hope that those RA minefield can somehow be crossed or will fissile out.  I mean the effect on AT mines is not zero but they have laid so many that any bull rushes are likely still going to fail.

Frozen ground is bad for ploughs and explosive breaching as well.  Rollers may or may not work because of spread out ground pressure.  

[Seedorf81]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have not heard this competition story either.  It is totally believable.  A bunch of Alpha Males trying to impress important people?  What could possibly go wrong.

(..)

This is the most plausible account I have heard since the tragedy happened.  Speculation that the "separatists" planned on shooting down MH-17 on purpose do not make any sense and there is no evidence to support it.

With Russia, if the choice of story is between devious plot and incompetence, the safer bet is incompetence.

Steve

Also according to Salikov: the real purpose for wanting to shoot down a plane was to make Girkin more popular and to get more funding.

There's a bit more info on Salikov. He's 60 years old, and got help by his "very difficult" escape out of Russia from human rights activist Vladimir Osechskin.

Osechskin stated that most of colonel Salikov's statements have been verified, even up to the point that as a result of those statements places of executions, and graves of murdered Ukrainian civilians and POW's, have been found.

So he seems legit, and Ukrainian lawyers are already having conversations with him.

Order from Putin to try and kill Salikov must have been issued already, I suspect..

 

 

 

 

 

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I had to sit on the seat to warm it up and then violently bounce up and down dozens of times to get the switch to function correctly.  Under normal circumstances even 1/2 sitting up on the seat is enough to cut the engine.

Winter in a cold climate can be such fun!

Steve

looking for this on tik tok now.  

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If one wants simple fire suppression an AGL would be a much better choice.  Smaller and lighter but packs enough punch.

Yeah for suppression an AGL, and for mobile fires a self propelled mortar UGV. Since the recoil from the mortar pushes down (mostly), it’s much easier for light vehicle to handle.

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is why mines are laid in redundancy.  I just don’t see this as a reasonable hope that those RA minefield can somehow be crossed or will fissile out.  I mean the effect on AT mines is not zero but they have laid so many that any bull rushes are likely still going to fail.

Frozen ground is bad for ploughs and explosive breaching as well.  Rollers may or may not work because of spread out ground pressure.  

Yup, at best the effects of winter increase your chances of "winning".  But like Las Vegas, "The House Always Wins" applies.  Or as I once said when felling a dozen trees next to my house, having 11 fall exactly where you isn't as impressive as the one that didn't.

Steve

[OBJ]

How to breakthrough 'now'...tactical EMP, various aspects of which this group discussed as early as Mar 22. I think/hope the information at the links is new...ish

Problem 1. How to degrade the defender's drone force during the period of the assault/obstacle clearing and breakthrough to preclude enemy ISR for direct attack, fire direction and counter maneuver

Assumption 1. Any drone designated as 'cheap' is not EMP hardened, enough
Assumption 2. Most of RA direct attack/ISR drones are 'cheap'
Assumption 3: Western support holds, UA/RA stalemate persists through 2024, West arms UA with tactical EMP weapons in time for offensive operations in 2025 (e.g. near future = 'now')

The technology maybe is closer than we think, just still classified. Simple google:

1. MIT proposal (team in India), claim to have a working proto-type, critical missing data is effective range 

https://solve.mit.edu/challenges/solv-ed-youth-innovation-challenge-2/solutions/68517

2. US Air Force RFI, what does industry already have to counter enemy drone swarms, is there a COTS solution

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14302521/air-force-surveys-industry-for-technologies-in-emp-electromagnetic-weapons-to-counter-unmanned-aircraft

3. Successful Boeing EMP missile test against electronic systems in buildings, presumably modifiable for tactical use in enemy drone operating areas

https://militaryembedded.com/radar-ew/sensors/raytheon-emp-missile-tested-by-boeing-usaf-research-lab

4. bottom of page 3, EMP bombs

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Documents/Pubs/320-090_elecpuls_fs.pdf

[The_Capt]

Back to jetpacks....these things are pretty far along:

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, OBJ said:

How to breakthrough 'now'...tactical EMP, various aspects of which this group discussed as early as Mar 22. I think/hope the information at the links is new...ish

Problem 1. How to degrade the defender's drone force during the period of the assault/obstacle clearing and breakthrough to preclude enemy ISR for direct attack, fire direction and counter maneuver

Assumption 1. Any drone designated as 'cheap' is not EMP hardened, enough
Assumption 2. Most of RA direct attack/ISR drones are 'cheap'
Assumption 3: Western support holds, UA/RA stalemate persists through 2024, West arms UA with tactical EMP weapons in time for offensive operations in 2025 (e.g. near future = 'now')

The technology maybe is closer than we think, just still classified. Simple google:

1. MIT proposal (team in India), claim to have a working proto-type, critical missing data is effective range 

https://solve.mit.edu/challenges/solv-ed-youth-innovation-challenge-2/solutions/68517

2. US Air Force RFI, what does industry already have to counter enemy drone swarms, is there a COTS solution

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/power/article/14302521/air-force-surveys-industry-for-technologies-in-emp-electromagnetic-weapons-to-counter-unmanned-aircraft

3. Successful Boeing EMP missile test against electronic systems in buildings, presumably modifiable for tactical use in enemy drone operating areas

https://militaryembedded.com/radar-ew/sensors/raytheon-emp-missile-tested-by-boeing-usaf-research-lab

4. bottom of page 3, EMP bombs

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Documents/Pubs/320-090_elecpuls_fs.pdf

So what does it take to harden a UAS and challenge assumption #1?  Seriously asking.

[Zeleban]

I have a faint hope that Ukraine can still survive this winter (I don’t know what exactly influenced my opinion, objective reasons, or another bottle of Madeira I bought this evening). The key events, in my opinion, will unfold not on the front line, but in the rear. It all depends on whether our president will be able to change public opinion, destroy the influence of the Russian information machine on the consciousness of our citizens, and also restore the faith of our citizens in the armed forces of Ukraine. Zaluzhny previously expressed the opinion that Ukraine needs to return to last year’s level of citizen mobilization. 

However, Zelensky said at a press conference that another 500,000 mobilized Ukrainians are needed. This means that Ukraine's armed forces must increase by another third of their original strength. This clearly contradicts Zaluzhny’s assertion that everything is normal and no special mobilization measures are needed.

 

Be that as it may, I can be guided by the mobilization of my youth acquaintances from Krivoy Rog. They have significant abilities to corrupt any government bodies. Even if these guys were drafted into the army, then everything is very, very bad. So far, fortunately, none of my friends have been drafted into the army

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1737086041582903566

an serviceman from the 37th Brigade recorded this patriotic concert ahead of the Russian assault on Ukrainian positions near Novodonets'ke in November. The patriotic song included phrases such as "our infantry, tanks and artillery are f*cking the NATO" and "we're killing fascists". In this assault, Russia has lost over 30 people and a number of vehicles. Ukrainians had 1 wounded soldier.

 

Twitter being a pain, great stufff from Dmitri though. A russian soldier filmed the the pre assault hype fest. He didn't make it but his phone did, so this includes tape from both sides. Dmitri say a a longer video is coming.

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Back to jetpacks....these things are pretty far along:

 

An enormous heat signature, no?

[dan/california]

Dmitri for the win, Again.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, billbindc said:

An enormous heat signature, no?

Oh ya.  Noisy too.  So smoke cover, night, UAS forward suppression, deception/decoys, EW and really short hops - maybe 1-2kms tops.  This is an op on a river crossing complexity, even if one could get the 500 or so jet packs in the first place.  I would see this as a UGV/UAS follow up to try and either create a bridgehead or simply scare the crap out of the RA and make them react. 

But at this point the UA CHOD is talking plasma torches cutting tunnels…so we are at the wild idea point.

Edited December 19, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Dmitri for the win, Again.

Excellent interview.  A whole lot there under the hood.  Mines and ATGM did the vehicles.  Small arms and mortars the troops.  UAS watched the whole thing tied back to the TOC. 

[Seedorf81]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh ya.  Noisy too.  So smoke cover, night, UAS forward suppression, deception/decoys, EW and really short hops - maybe 1-2kms tops.  This is an op on a river crossing complexity, even if one could get the 500 or so jet packs in the first place.  I would see this as a UGV/UAS follow up to try and either create a bridgehead or simply scare the crap out of the RA and make them react. 

But at this point the UA CHOD is talking plasma torches cutting tunnels…so we are at the wild idea point.

Except for a few magazines I didn't see storage-space. But for every attack you need at least some food and water and well, basic engineering-equipment (wire-cutter, shovel, etc), medical stuff, grenades, GPS, radio's, etc. And these days going without drones is almost a no no. And a machinegun would be nice, too, I reckon.

If these jetpacks can carry extra weight only the place to put supplies is a problem, but if a single soldier with rifle reaches the maximum loadcapacity, than every serious attack is going to be difficult, I imagine.

[JonS]

Jet packs don't need to use actual jets

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Jetpack

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Except for a few magazines I didn't see storage-space. But for every attack you need at least some food and water and well, basic engineering-equipment (wire-cutter, shovel, etc), medical stuff, grenades, GPS, radio's, etc. And these days going without drones is almost a no no. And a machinegun would be nice, too, I reckon.

If these jetpacks can carry extra weight only the place to put supplies is a problem, but if a single soldier with rifle reaches the maximum loadcapacity, than every serious attack is going to be difficult, I imagine.

Yep.  Going to need heavy UAS supply to push stuff like that.  And evac support.  The list goes on.  Like I said…an entire op.

 I think the ones in the videos are from this company:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daedalus_Flight_Pack

[riptides]

9 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Except for a few magazines I didn't see storage-space. But for every attack you need at least some food and water and well, basic engineering-equipment (wire-cutter, shovel, etc), medical stuff, grenades, GPS, radio's, etc. And these days going without drones is almost a no no. And a machinegun would be nice, too, I reckon.

If these jetpacks can carry extra weight only the place to put supplies is a problem, but if a single soldier with rifle reaches the maximum loadcapacity, than every serious attack is going to be difficult, I imagine.

So you have autonomous jet packs that carry supplies and lethal stuff. Or you drop them in at pre-determined points.

Hundreds of these provide for instant heartburn in your rear areas. They take mines and fortifications out of the attack calculations.

It's mobile infantry...in a whole new dimension of warfare.

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh ya.  Noisy too.  So smoke cover, night, UAS forward suppression, deception/decoys, EW and really short hops - maybe 1-2kms tops.  This is an op on a river crossing complexity, even if one could get the 500 or so jet packs in the first place.  I would see this as a UGV/UAS follow up to try and either create a bridgehead or simply scare the crap out of the RA and make them react. 

But at this point the UA CHOD is talking plasma torches cutting tunnels…so we are at the wild idea point.

Jetpacks are no silver bullet, but compared to what is available today I'd wager it would be more cost effective and also more likely to succeed.

On the first point, a NATO armored thrust like the 47th Mech Brigade did was probably in the range of $25m worth of armored vehicles for each breach attempt (1-2 MBTs with breaching equipment, 4-5 IFVs).  Off the top of my head, I'd say the loss was about $15m and the mission only partially successful at best.

These jetpacks, even with bloated pricing, probably could come in at $500k each.  That's 50 packs for the same cost as the armored breaching force.  That means 50 much smaller, faster, and non-predictable moving targets in the air vs. 6 massive slow moving totally predictable targets on the ground.  Manpower is about the same for both.

The tactics I see are pretty straight forward.  Pick landing spots on the other side of the minefield, blast them with everything you have (artillery, air, drones, etc).  While this is going on fly a bunch of UGVs and drop them just as the flattening attacks cease.  UGVs' main role is to locate and distract surviving defenders more than kill them, but killing is definitely a good thing.  All the while the full range of UAVs fly in support.

While all of this fun is going on, squads of jetpack soldiers fly over the minefields and land in spots that ISR deems likely "safe".  If there is no place deemed safe, then repeat the above until the equation changes OR scrub the mission and try somewhere else.

When the jetpack soldiers land they do standard infantry stuff, however a couple of guys stay behind to deal with the packs.  Heavy lift copter drones are sent over to recover the packs one at a time.  As soon as the packs are back to friendly lines, they are refueled and reinforcements sent over.  This process is repeated until there is a good sized perimeter set up on the opposite side of the minefields.

All the while EVERY form of support is available for the jumpjet grunts to use to make sure the enemy stays far away or dies trying to get close.

Heavy lift drones bring ammo, food, and specialized equipment (e.g. EW, AD, etc.).  Wounded are evacuated using heavy lift drones.

At some point the bridgehead force signals it's looking good and old school breaching begins to work its way towards the other side to relieve the bridgehead.

All of this is pretty sound and technically feasible.  Theory says it should work or at least should work better than what is being done now.  Theory, though, is just that!

Steve