How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chris talpas]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I was wondering this exact thing. If Ukraine simply maintains a grinding bite and hold offense, how much does the weather really affect the pace?

One thing to consider would be paved roads to supply the salients gained.  While they can currently move through fields, once the mud sets in ..

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000627356533

Gallioti does a fairly deep dive into a selection of second tier players in Russia, and what the ongoing maneuvers say about the war.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Why do they all cut their own hair in that country?  Did they outlaw hairstylists?

They certainly haven't outlawed them for the mistresses of top tier oligarchs. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CwNY1NatyZ1/

I suspect the abominations we see on anyone below the level of vice minister, or the economic equivalent are effectively some sort of sumptuary law that demonstrates their seriousness of purpose. Or something like that. The Instagrams of Moscow socialites are a weird distorted mirror into state of the Russian economy.

Edited September 10, 2023 by dan/california

[Harmon Rabb]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They certainly haven't outlawed them for the mistresses of top tier oligarchs. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CwNY1NatyZ1/

I suspect the abominations we see on anyone below the level of vice minister, or the economic equivalent are effectively some sort of sumptuary law that demonstrates their seriousness of purpose. Or something like that. The Instagrams of Moscow socialites are a weird distorted mirror into state of the Russian economy.

I know that garden gnome Kadyrov tries to present a very "macho" image of himself as laughable as it looks. Maybe he thinks a decent haircut would make him look far too "effeminate"

Edited September 10, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Astrophel]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Frankly,  you're very naive about this. 

1. Russia is not occupied. There's no population crying out to know whays true,  what's going on outside, if there's hope.

2. They have the internet and, controlled as it us,  they can access BBC.com any time they want. They've had very wide access since D0.  

3. External media has nothing on the RusGov control and manipulation of domestic media. It's a fart in the face of a hurricane. Russian domestic propaganda is relentless,  pervasive, omnipresent and backed by legal authority, criminal prosecution and determined political direction. 

4. UK is not at war with Russia. There's no military or political imperative to inform the Russian population about anything. Investing in BBC WS is pointless. 

5. Russian population is not going to be swayed in any shape,  way or form by the BBC world service. They don't care about western narrative or values. 

Either we bomb them into submission or we persuade them that they are in the wrong - perhaps a mixture of both. 

Right. Russia is not crying out to be informed.  They tend to distrust their own media and live in a world in which all nations have lying narratives just like their own government.

Right. The current approach is a fart in a hurricane.

Right. UK is not at war with russia - just shipping obsolete inventories of weapons and excelling in gesture politics.  UK is posturing not performing - it is what UK is world class at these days, posturing.  Thank goodness we have USA and several EU countries helping out too.  Not to forget Ukraine which IS fighting the war.

Russian population needs to change the narrative.  Only russians can change russia.  Otherwise we are heading for more brutality and eventually nuclear war.  Spending time calculating how to get russian attention is at least as valuable as wondering how to make a better drone don't you think?  Or am I really being totally naive.

[kimbosbread]

16 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

Russian population needs to change the narrative.  Only russians can change russia.  Otherwise we are heading for more brutality and eventually nuclear war.  Spending time calculating how to get russian attention is at least as valuable as wondering how to make a better drone don't you think?  Or am I really being totally naive.

I think our political classes lack creative flair for tackling problems, honestly. I would simply offer visas at almost guaranteed rate for attractive women younger than 30 without children from axis of evil countries. Their demographics are already messed up, but it wouldn't hurt giving them an extra kick as they roll down that hill.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

What else do you mean by “stare Putin down”?

Using whatever is ever left of American power to stop Putin's war in it's tracks with diplomacy. War is a mistake and not inevitable. We are doing a pretty good job keeping China at bay and out of the ROC; but if the US had all this great intel; what did they do with it? I don't recall any attempt of arm Ukraine like we have the ROC. Ukraine was expendable I guess? Easier to deal with a rational China than a irrational Russia. It almost like we encouraged Russia and did not try to deter Russia.

Did POTUS go on prime time to warn off Putin? Nope. Books will be written on such a failure of leadership that is costing so many lives especially knowing if war started it would cause so much human suffering. The wishful thinking that Putin would not attack was not leadership.

Ok, I am beating a dead horse. 

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Tux said:

Quick note: the above was unnecessary and disrespectful, so I apologise for that.

No it wasn’t and I don’t think you need to.  It is a stupid narrative proposed either by opportunists or fools.  The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine.  The costs were simply too high on too many levels. This entire post-crisis “tough guy” narrative is a pretty oblivious ploy to try and pin the blame for this war on one side or another.  We all watched Russia doing dirty in the region and basically did nothing…in some cases we made it worse.

”But air power!”  Ok dingus, how much do you think positioning that amount of AirPower in the region would have cost?  Air power is not a magic wand, it is a massive military capability one has to surge, stage and keep at readiness levels, costing billions to do so over the timescales the “staring” would have occurred.  The bill for massive overmatch of the Russian air forces would have been (and frankly still is) very high.  Let alone if we really had to do it, and completely ignore escalation risks. Same people would be quacking about “ridiculous government spending in Ukraine” that is would have taken to actually set up “staring” - unless it was their guy in charge, which is a whole other problem.

 One is not an expert “strategist” because you can regurgitate some spin-lines dreamt up by a political ad agency. You are fool being played because it is so much easier to let someone else do all that hard thinking and make this whole complicated world so simple.  And before anyone weighs on on left or right…both sides do it so let’s just not get into that.  Best thing you can do for yourself is get a library card, read a lot of history and a wide range of political sciences/military affairs.  Do the hard work for yourself.  

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Tux said:

So the US basically told Russia they knew about their plans, told all their allies, told Ukraine and mobilised the alliance we see today to implement unprecedented sanctions against Russia and unprecedented financial and military support for Russia’s intended enemy.  I’m honestly not sure what other reasonable measures could have been taken at the time.

Excellent summary.

All this and Putin still decides, "Ah, what the Hell, I'm doing it anyway"  

What could be done that wasn't? Put 3 US divisions in Ukraine before he attacked (not happening)? Doing anything AFTER he attacked, like US airpower to try to neutralize Russia's military, or massive Tomahawk strikes into Russia itself, is just insanity (both ideas have been floated by various people). 

There's really no good way to stop someone like that.

Dave

[JonS]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Air power is not a magic wand, it is a massive military capability one has to surge, stage and keep at readiness levels

The Baltic Air Patrol is an excellent example of just exactly how hard this kind of staring is, and it "only" consists of a dozen or so aircraft.

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

Quick note: the above was unnecessary and disrespectful, so I apologize for that.

Tux, I not did not take it that way at all. I enjoy the discussion. This war has created raw emotions. If I bring out those emotions, it's on me, not you. We are mostly all on the same team. I am neither a fool nor an opportunist. 

"The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine."

Funny, someone made my exact point for me; albeit without knowing they did so. Stare is just a metaphor for backing in up. And Ukraine was left out on a limb compared to our support to the ROC.  

Edited September 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[kimbosbread]

10 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

What could be done that wasn't? Put 3 US divisions in Ukraine before he attacked (not happening)? Doing anything AFTER he attacked, like US airpower to try to neutralize Russia's military, or massive Tomahawk strikes into Russia itself, is just insanity (both ideas have been floated by various people).

It rhymes with "bouclier inflammation", and it's coming everywhere, hasta pronto.

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine.  The costs were simply too high on too many levels. This entire post-crisis “tough guy” narrative is a pretty oblivious ploy to try and pin the blame for this war on one side or another.  We all watched Russia doing dirty in the region and basically did nothing…in some cases we made it worse.

All that and... I'm not sure even that would have worked.  Putin's regime is based on terror and mayhem.  If there was collective challenges to what he was doing, it's probable that he would just do more of it or something different.  It might have convinced him to launch the war on Ukraine even earlier.

That being said, the West's collective lack of will to do anything but cash in on cheap resources and bribes certainly didn't help prevent this war, therefore it is possible that a different course of action (and I mean action, not words of action) could have done something.

Fun thought... Ukraine may be better off now because of Western dithering.  Russia has been getting weaker since 2014 and Ukraine stronger.  If Russia did a full scale invasion in 2015 or 2016 I'm not sure Ukraine would have solidly won Round 1 of the war as it did in 2022.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, akd said:

3rd Assault Brigade dawn attack seen in part previously:

 

Cool downing of a drone starting at the 8:20 mark.

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fun thought... Ukraine may be better off now because of Western dithering

I have been thinking about that but never mentioned that the "dithering" might be thought of luring Putin into a Strategic Trap that they can't get out of. The counter thought is that with China's support, Russian is hanging in and are all the Ukrainian lives worth it? At some point the USA will have put some real skin in the game. I will never take down my American flag, but it might have to lowered to half mast. BTW, this war was nothing fun associated with it. 

Edited September 10, 2023 by kevinkin

[MikeyD]

My assumption is that the global pandemic had delayed Putin's original war plan by about a year. Putin had plotted his war-of-plunder in Ukraine under the assumption that *someone else* would be in the US presidency at the time, would have pulled the US out of NATO by then and would have publicly backed him in his war. We were in fact just a few locked doors and a few alert Capitol security guards away from that happening, judging by the growing list of January 6 sedition convictions. A common meme at the start of the war was that Putin had invaded Ukraine on a whim because Biden had publicly said 'unkind things' about him (I recall one Youtube video actually used accompanying CM game footage). You can't have it both ways. You can't blame Biden because he too forcefully warned of the coming war and also because he didn't oppose it enough.

[kimbosbread]

16 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I have been thinking about that but never mentioned that the "dithering" might be thought of luring Putin into a Strategic Trap that they can't get out of.

We wish we were that clever. We're just lucky. As Bismarck once said "God loves idiots, drunkards and Americans".

[dan/california]

 

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

My assumption is that the global pandemic had delayed Putin's original war plan by about a year. Putin had plotted his war-of-plunder in Ukraine under the assumption that *someone else* would be in the US presidency at the time, would have pulled the US out of NATO by then and would have publicly backed him in his war. We were in fact just a few locked doors and a few alert Capitol security guards away from that happening, judging by the growing list of January 6 sedition convictions. A common meme at the start of the war was that Putin had invaded Ukraine on a whim because Biden had publicly said 'unkind things' about him (I recall one Youtube video actually used accompanying CM game footage). You can't have it both ways. You can't blame Biden because he too forcefully warned of the coming war and also because he didn't oppose it enough.

 

Quote

 

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10154022214544422

“The only thing more expensive than deterrence is actually fighting a war.” That’s what Gen. Mark Milley, chief of staff of the U.S. Army, told me when I asked him at an Armed Services committee hearing for an honest assessment on the current state of our military. 

 

Milley wasn't really speaking about Ukraine, and MikeyD and several others have pointed out various reasons why deterrence in Ukraine was doomed to fail. I actually find MikeyD's reasoning about the Putin's timeline and assumptions to be quite convincing. Throw in a bad case of sunk cost fallacy on Putin's part and here we are. The cost of that deterrence  failure though, is tens of thousand of lives, just on the side we are supporting, and at least a couple of hundred billion dollars by the time the final tab comes due. Disruptions to the worlds food supply that aren't over and may be getting worse, and all the rest of it.

Taiwan would be at least an order of magnitude worse, in every conceivable category. It might take the world economy decades to recover. Whatever we need to spend to be absolutely sure the Chinese get the message that they can't take Taiwan and shouldn't try, it is a tiny fraction of what it will cost if they DON"T get the message.

 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

My assumption is that the global pandemic had delayed Putin's original war plan by about a year. Putin had plotted his war-of-plunder in Ukraine under the assumption that *someone else* would be in the US presidency at the time, would have pulled the US out of NATO by then and would have publicly backed him in his war. We were in fact just a few locked doors and a few alert Capitol security guards away from that happening, judging by the growing list of January 6 sedition convictions. A common meme at the start of the war was that Putin had invaded Ukraine on a whim because Biden had publicly said 'unkind things' about him (I recall one Youtube video actually used accompanying CM game footage). You can't have it both ways. You can't blame Biden because he too forcefully warned of the coming war and also because he didn't oppose it enough.

Unless something dramatic happened either in Russia (e.g. Putin dying) or the West (e.g. taking Ukraine into NATO without any warning) it was always going to come down to war.  Putin's been angling for this since he took power, not just 2014 or 2022. And Putin's desire to absorb Ukraine goes back hundreds of years.  Anybody that thinks this war was a whim of a single man is demonstrating that they know absolutely nothing.

The war's start was always about timing and Ukrainian resolve. Up until 2014 it was hybrid warfare and in that year Putin concluded it had failed, which is what gave us the fighting in 2014-2022.  He tried to return to hybrid warfare after 2015 and found very little hope of it working any better than before.  In the last few years he's made it very clear to anybody who was listening (and many were) that he was running out of patience with the West's lack of interest in handing Ukraine over on a silver platter. 

Part of that was the failure of a number of pro-Russian Western leaders to "move the needle" far and fast enough for Putin's liking.  The war planning started in early 2021 when it was clear that whatever political winds Putin hoped would blow Ukraine into his arms had played out.  I also believe Putin was looking at his biological clock and thinking he had better do it soon as taking Ukraine was definitely on his bucket list.  It also appears that he had some concern that every day Russia didn't invade was another day that Ukraine would get stronger.  I don't know if Putin was aware that every day that went by Russia was getting weaker.  Maybe he knew this, maybe he didn't.

As I said a few posts up, there was very little the West could have done before this war to head it off.  At best it could have done things in 2015-2022 to make Ukraine stronger and Russia weaker for the eventual matchup.  That would not have averted the war, but just maybe it could have made Russia's disastrous first couple of months even worse than they were, which in turn might have been enough to cause a strategic collapse.  Then again, maybe not.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

In the video, the reporter says they put up that map instead of the normal classified map because the reporter was present:

 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

We wish we were that clever. We're just lucky. As Bismarck once said "God loves idiots, drunkards and Americans".

Oh for sure nobody in the West was planning to lure Putin into a trap, but it is almost certain that Putin interpreted the West's internal problems and decisive indecision regarding Russian aggression as an opportunity.  And that, possibly, was the deciding factor in whether to launch a full scale invasion or a more limited one.  If so, then I think Ukraine got "lucky" because a smaller scaled invasion would have been much harder to defeat than the full scale one that actually happened.  I've been saying that in this thread since I started posting to it.

This is part of why I said that Ukraine might have benefited from the West's dithering.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

Oh yeah I strongly agree with that. Putin bet the farm on taking the whole country, whereas he could have easily and successfully nibbled "noch ein paar meter".

My comment is more around the fact that despite various challenges, the US continues to come up on top for all sorts of reasons, but we also just seem to be lucky that the bad people in the world, or at least those who want to cause instability, seem to just not be able to hold it together over a longer timeframe.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

No it wasn’t and I don’t think you need to.  It is a stupid narrative proposed either by opportunists or fools.  The time for “staring” was between 2014 and 2022 and we failed on that at every turn across the entire political spectrum.  The reasons were pretty simple - you can’t just stare, you have to be ready to back it up, and no one in the US or entire western world was going to do that for Ukraine.  The costs were simply too high on too many levels. This entire post-crisis “tough guy” narrative is a pretty oblivious ploy to try and pin the blame for this war on one side or another.  We all watched Russia doing dirty in the region and basically did nothing…in some cases we made it worse.

”But air power!”  Ok dingus, how much do you think positioning that amount of AirPower in the region would have cost?  Air power is not a magic wand, it is a massive military capability one has to surge, stage and keep at readiness levels, costing billions to do so over the timescales the “staring” would have occurred.  The bill for massive overmatch of the Russian air forces would have been (and frankly still is) very high.  Let alone if we really had to do it, and completely ignore escalation risks. Same people would be quacking about “ridiculous government spending in Ukraine” that is would have taken to actually set up “staring” - unless it was their guy in charge, which is a whole other problem.

 One is not an expert “strategist” because you can regurgitate some spin-lines dreamt up by a political ad agency. You are fool being played because it is so much easier to let someone else do all that hard thinking and make this whole complicated world so simple.  And before anyone weighs on on left or right…both sides do it so let’s just not get into that.  Best thing you can do for yourself is get a library card, read a lot of history and a wide range of political sciences/military affairs.  Do the hard work for yourself.  

Fully endorse this. The claim the Biden administration somehow blinked is, let's be entirely clear, idiotic. It played every card it could play within the political/military/strategic restraints that it could in order to avert the invasion. That the Russians decided to go va banc is on them, not on everyone who tried to stop it. 

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As I said a few posts up, there was very little the West could have done before this war to head it off.  At best it could have done things in 2015-2022 to make Ukraine stronger and Russia weaker for the eventual matchup.  That would not have averted the war, but just maybe it could have made Russia's disastrous first couple of months even worse than they were, which in turn might have been enough to cause a strategic collapse.  Then again, maybe not.

My words "stare down" were not precise, but accurate. This war was preventable and it makes me worry about America's role in the world. So many things could have deterred Putin with his economy the size of Italy and with so many structural problems. For example, why did the US publicly announce a strategic shift to the Pacific. That left Putin chomping at the bit and China just ready to finance a disruptive war against the west. This is WW3 and the US can't use proxies to win it. Not just for the west but also for the Russian people. Does anyone hate Russian women and children? These types of regimes have to be beaten to a pulp. Then their people will embrace western ideals. You see, just a few people in the world are are making policy killing thousands in Ukraine just so that their power is maintained. That has to stop. Only the US can do it.   

The United States spent $766 billion on national defense during fiscal year (FY) 2022 according to the Office of Management and Budget, which amounted to 12 percent of federal spending. Defense spending in 2022 was less than the average for the last decade, which was 15 percent of the budget.

How is that money influencing the world for the good if we don't deploy it the name of good. It's embarrassing. 

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Fully endorse this. The claim the Biden administration somehow blinked is, let's be entirely clear, idiotic. It played every card it could play within the political/military/strategic restraints that it could in order to avert the invasion. That the Russians decided to go va banc is on them, not on everyone who tried to stop it. 

Do you have any proof of that? But if you are correct, the USA is in more of decline a than most understand. It's cards are therefore becoming fewer and fewer. But that's another topic, but still sad. We knew Putin is a madman, we did blink.