How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

35 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

And right on cue:

Trump to meet with Ukrainian president
 

 

The tension will border on the erotic…

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The tension will border on the erotic…

Have you started working on your first book? The one about the "romantic" three way relationship between Putin , Prig, and Trump? 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Have you started working on your first book? The one about the "romantic" three way relationship between Putin , Prig, and Trump? 

A love triangle for the ages. Vlad wants to love again but the hurt from the last time stings too badly. Priggy was all he ever wanted in a man. But you know the old saying “if you can’t be with the one you love…blow up their airplane.”

Damn would probably sell better than anything I am writing to be honest.

[FancyCat]

5 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

According to the BBC 650 000 conscription aged men have left Ukraine for Europe. I will let this figure speak for itself.

 

 

All Russian soldiers in Ukraine are volunteers, lured by Russian oil and gas profits, wages that for many, outmass whatever average wage they would get in their home town. Asking why won’t Ukrainians die and leave their families worse off is a bit silly when we have the results of Russia throwing money at their soldiers but also throwing them into appalling situations on the front. 

what’s the wages of Ukrainian soldiers? Anyone know? 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

All Russian soldiers in Ukraine are volunteers, lured by Russian oil and gas profits, wages that for many, outmass whatever average wage they would get in their home town. Asking why won’t Ukrainians die and leave their families worse off is a bit silly when we have the results of Russia throwing money at their soldiers but also throwing them into appalling situations on the front. 

what’s the wages of Ukrainian soldiers? Anyone know? 

Seriously? Is that why you think people go to war? Sure some Russians are doing it for the cash. Some were prisoners/convicts. Some are idealists and believe they are doing it for their country. Some don’t want to miss out. And some are conscripts.

Ukrainians are fighting for the survival of their nation. Their families will be worse off if they are left to those Russian soldiers. They will worse off as a province in greater Russia…the vengeance will be terrible.

Aragorns point is that there are bigger things than individual survival or payouts. There are larger ideas that must be defended or lost. Do you think that our prosperity and freedoms are simply a natural product? A divine right? No. They are earned, by every generation. We are standing on a precipice here. There is the world we want and the one that is going to happen to us unless we are ready to sacrifice. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fq0rs2/ua_fixed_wing_drone_drops_a_captive_fpv_for/

 

UA fixed wing drone drops a captive fpv for continued operations. The fpv can serve in an escort role as well.

 

It won't be long before we are discussing the merits of various squadron sized UAV strike packages.

[Fenris]

Big aid package announcements today from the US, UK and DE.

And this comment from the UK gov

Quote

The UK and its Western allies have depleted their weapon stockpiles after over two and a half years of supporting Ukraine, according to Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard. Ahead of UN talks, Pollard emphasized the need for a long-term production strategy.

 

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously? Is that why you think people go to war? Sure some Russians are doing it for the cash. Some were prisoners/convicts. Some are idealists and believe they are doing it for their country. Some don’t want to miss out. And some are conscripts.

Ukrainians are fighting for the survival of their nation. Their families will be worse off if they are left to those Russian soldiers. They will worse off as a province in greater Russia…the vengeance will be terrible.

Aragorns point is that there are bigger things than individual survival or payouts. There are larger ideas that must be defended or lost. Do you think that our prosperity and freedoms are simply a natural product? A divine right? No. They are earned, by every generation. We are standing on a precipice here. There is the world we want and the one that is going to happen to us unless we are ready to sacrifice. 

Is the world we want really the same world the younger generations want, though? Usually you are the one to remind us of micro societies and all that. I feel that, especially when it comes to concepts like nations, the older and younger generations are not really on the same page. (Being 45 I sit in the middle and don't really know about either).

 

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And another "this just in".  Trump has agreed to meet Zelensky tomorrow morning:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4902333-trump-zelensky-meeting-new-york/

Steve

That will be an interesting meeting, would love to know what really happens in it.  I can only imagine the pressure placed on the Trump campaign by pro-Ukraine Republicans to have this meeting.

It has been reported the Zelensky shared his "Victory" plan with both Biden and Harris. Hopefully, he'll be careful about disclosing anything he doesn't want Putin to hear in tomorrow's meeting.

[chris talpas]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Aragorns point is that there are bigger things than individual survival or payouts. There are larger ideas that must be defended or lost. Do you think that our prosperity and freedoms are simply a natural product? A divine right? No. They are earned, by every generation. We are standing on a precipice here. There is the world we want and the one that is going to happen to us unless we are ready to sacrifice. 

And why in our own country isn’t there serious discussion about meeting our 2% target and preparing our defence industry for the challenging times ahead?  Whatever happened to that country that had 10% of its population in uniform in WW2 as well churning out war materials and trained aircrews? 
Canada risks becoming irrelevant in the dangerous world ahead and regardless who wins, I think our southern neighbour will expect much more progress than is being planned.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

That will be an interesting meeting, would love to know what really happens in it.  I can only imagine the pressure placed on the Trump campaign by pro-Ukraine Republicans to have this meeting.

It has been reported the Zelensky shared his "Victory" plan with both Biden and Harris. Hopefully, he'll be careful about disclosing anything he doesn't want Putin to hear in tomorrow's meeting.

 

Quote

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/09/26/trump-reveals-zelensky-plea-meeting-amid-spat-over-ukraine/

Pictured: Trump publishes Zelensky’s personal message pleading for meeting

Decision to make plea public came after Republican delivered Ukraine speech saying ‘the people are dead’ and ‘the country is in rubble’

 

Trump couldn't be much clearer.

 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Is the world we want really the same world the younger generations want, though? Usually you are the one to remind us of micro societies and all that. I feel that, especially when it comes to concepts like nations, the older and younger generations are not really on the same page. (Being 45 I sit in the middle and don't really know about either).

 

Here is the thing…humanity is not a menu. One cannot simply pick and choose a world they want and then expect it to happen. It takes work, sacrifice and competition. Because if you are not willing to do that, then someone else will decide what world you are going to live in for you.

So in the end, it really doesn’t matter what the younger generation “wants”, it is about what they will fight and sacrifice for. What they are willing to do to make that world. Who they are willing to stop in making the world they do not want.

Younger and older generations are never on the same page…until then younger one gets older. Then all the stuff the older generation went on about starts making a lot more sense. Doesn’t mean they were always right, but at least one can see better through their eyes.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

And why in our own country isn’t there serious discussion about meeting our 2% target and preparing our defence industry for the challenging times ahead?  Whatever happened to that country that had 10% of its population in uniform in WW2 as well churning out war materials and trained aircrews? 
Canada risks becoming irrelevant in the dangerous world ahead and regardless who wins, I think our southern neighbour will expect much more progress than is being planned.

We are a living breathing example of entitlement. We can fight, oh my we can get downright cray cray about it. But we have lived in the Great Peace and fooled ourselves into believing it was forever. It is bigger than money, it is a culture ready for what comes next. And that is micro-social. Governments cannot legislate that sort of thing. We are very close to entering a new Age of The Gun here and we are still high on soft power and “the world needs more Canada”.  And no political party is ready for this - let’s not open up that can of worms.

This war in Ukraine is at the end of a long line of signals that the world around us was shifting. What we do in this war and after it will be critical for what comes next.

[OldSarge]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Trump couldn't be much clearer.

 

Yep, I know! This meeting is for publicity and not policy. I'm just interested in the behind the scenes shenanigans that took this from a non-event to an actual meeting after other comments TFG made against Zelensky. TFG is purely transactional, so what is his angle if not for getting in the news cycle?

Edited Friday at 12:14 AM by OldSarge

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And some are conscripts.

If they signed contracts they aren’t conscripts anymore. Vast majority of personnel in Ukraine are now volunteers who signed contracts. More questionable for personnel facing Kursk but the data shows they are mostly willingly joining. 

And those joining get tons of bonuses. Enough to impact inflationary pressures in the Russian economy. What I think is it would be a lot easier for Ukrainians to join knowing they can feed their families vs not joining, which is why I’m wondering what the wages are for Ukrainian soldiers. I know there was talk about the lowness of wages in the past 2 years or so. 

[MikeyD]

Also, if you refuse to sign a contract the chance you of being thrown naked and bleeding into an open pit goes up significantly.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

Yep, I know! This meeting is for publicity and not policy. I'm just interested in the behind the scenes shenanigans that took this from a non-event to an actual meeting after other comments TFG made against Zelensky. TFG is purely transactional, so what is his angle if not for getting in the news cycle?

  This is about damage control for his campaign.  There's an endless list of examples of Trump doing or not doing something, having it blow up in his face, and then (often obviously reluctantly) reversing course because someone/s around him convinced him he was harming himself.

As with many of these events, this was (as we say in the US) an "unforced error".  All Trump had to do is put on the "I'm a world leader" act, meet with Zelensky, say absolutely nothing meaningful, and end the meeting with a photo op.  His critics would say "well, that was the right thing to do at least" while his MAGA faithful would say it's evidence of Trump being a great deal maker.  Which is exactly how Trump could have put it to them at his next rally.  "See how big a man I am.  Zelensky came crawling to me for support!".

But nope, Trump didn't want to meet with Zelensky for personal reasons or because he couldn't see a way to leverage it to his benefit.  He created bad press instead of an easy win.  Now he is trying to correct for the mistake.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

If they signed contracts they aren’t conscripts anymore. Vast majority of personnel in Ukraine are now volunteers who signed contracts. More questionable for personnel facing Kursk but the data shows they are mostly willingly joining.

This isn't necessarily correct, just as saying that all Russians are fighting only for money is correct.  The fact is that Ukraine is drafting people into service and punishing those who do not go willingly.  They are also not releasing those already in service according to a standard term of service.  Basically, if you volunteer today you are a soldier until Ukraine says you aren't or are dead.  If you don't volunteer, and you are drafted, you are a soldier until Ukraine says you aren't, you are dead, or you run away.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/25/europe/ukraine-draft-law-conscription-intl/index.html

We do not know what proportion of the current Ukrainian armed forces fit into the true definition of "volunteer".  We also do not know what proportion of the Russian armed forces today fit into the category of "mercenary" (fighting for money).  My feeling is that the bulk of Ukraine's forces are more-or-less fighting for their country (even if not truly by choice) while the majority of Russia's forces are more-or-less fighting for their own selfish reasons.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

How he is seen as a credible candidate is beyond the cognitive abilities of most people. The French had to put up with some Louis no 14 or 16 they were all narcistic idiots. At least the French never elected them. 

Edited Friday at 02:24 AM by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

17 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

More from Kastehelmi.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1838304397043925164.html

This position has reached its sell-by date. It has now extracted the necessary quantity of Russian blood and charred wrecks; hopefully at a 5x multiple of Ukrainian blood and charred wrecks.

The terrain in the area is flat, so there are no decisive natural obstacles which could help the defender. The main supply road is on FPV range.

Again, trying to grok the operational nature of terrain in a 'transparent' FPV world. What does that 'flat open countryside' behind do to the 1940s Russian army that must now advance across it, a day's walk/30 mins drive away from the Donetsk railhead?

I mean, it's not like the UA front is now unhinged and the road to Kramatorsk or Dnipro suddenly lies wide open to Vatutin.

One of the constants in this war is that if Russia wants to take something it can.  Eventually.  All Ukraine can do is delay the loss and ensure that Russia pays a high price for it.  Hopefully while maintaining a vastly lower losses in the process.

The importance of knowing this is that when some place falls we don't go running around saying the sky is falling.  It still happens, and the Putin Bots for sure push that message, but we've seen the fact we've seen this happen so many times before indicates the chances of the sky falling this particular time is low.

In the big picture all Ukraine can hope for is that the cumulative losses Russia suffers for taking what it's trying to take add up to collapse.  We've seen this happen twice in the war so far, but unfortunately not recently.  And the reason why is that Russia learned more about its limitations.  Specifically, it generally can either walk or chew gum, not both at the same time.  And certainly not also juggling balls.  This allows Russia to fight in one spot to the point of exhaustion and then stop before it translates into a collapse.

Kursk is an interesting side case where the front Ukraine struck was not weak directly because of the fighting, but the poor response was.  This separates it from the Dnepr crossings where the front and the response were weak directly because of the fighting.

So... to LLF's point...

Losing Vuhledar is not, itself, a problem for Ukraine.  The Russian creeping offensive may continue for a while, but unless Ukraine's lines collapse (not retreat, but fall apart) then it is just one more unfortunate piece of Ukraine under Russia's worn out boot heel.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another thing that came to mind when I read LLF's above noted post is the future of Ukraine.

Historians believe one of the reasons both Germany and Japan became such economic powerhouses in the 1960s is because they lost all of their legacy industrial infrastructure.  They didn't have the option to get another decade out of an out-of-date factory because the Allies wiped it off the face of the Earth.  So they had no choice but to build brand new industrial capacity with the current tech and techniques.

Ukraine has potential to follow this model.  Old Soviet cities, like Vuhledar, were built explicitly and narrowly to support some sort of industrial purpose.  Even before this war I was reading about cities like this, dotted around Russia, dying natural deaths as their industrial purpose faded or disappeared at the same time the demographics shifted.  This causes a number of long term problems because neglect is rarely a productive thing.

The cities that Russia is destroying in Ukraine are very unlikely going to be rebuilt along Soviet lines.  Some won't be rebuilt at all because there's no reason to rebuild them.  This is a really horrible way to do corrective urban planning, but when Russia gives you lemons you might as well make lemonade (and check for Polonium)

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/26/politics/zelensky-biden-harris-washington-visit/index.html

Zelensky makes urgent in-person plea to Biden and Harris who highlights her contrasting approach to Trump.

 

Quote

Harris's money quote.

“In candor, I share with you, Mr. President, there are some in my country who would instead force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, who would demand that Ukraine accept neutrality and would require Ukraine to forego security relationships with other nations,” she said outside her ceremonial office next to the White House. “These proposals are the same of those of Putin, and let us be clear, they are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”

 

The picture exceeded the file size to post it easily, but it says it all. Everybody's cards are on the table.

 

[kimbosbread]

5 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Canada risks becoming irrelevant in the dangerous world ahead and regardless who wins, I think our southern neighbour will expect much more progress than is being planned.

Risks? You are our hat! That said, as Capt said Canada has produced some exceptional soldiers, so it’s not all bad!

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Here is the thing…humanity is not a menu. One cannot simply pick and choose a world they want and then expect it to happen. It takes work, sacrifice and competition. Because if you are not willing to do that, then someone else will decide what world you are going to live in for you.

So in the end, it really doesn’t matter what the younger generation “wants”, it is about what they will fight and sacrifice for. What they are willing to do to make that world. Who they are willing to stop in making the world they do not want.

This in my mind is the number one driver of automated war… not having enough boots on the ground, or the support personnel to get those boots there, well-equiped, healthy, ready to kill and secure in their chosen gender identity and whatever else might be important at the time.

[kimbosbread]

Unrelated to hats, Trump and other amusing topics: Why hasn’t Ukraine taken out the rest of Russia’s refinineries within 1000km? Is US pressure that strong? Is Saudi saying they’ll drop under $100 a harbinger of more strikes (and likely an agreement with the US and Israel vis a vis Iran)?

[Eug85]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

All Russian soldiers in Ukraine are volunteers, lured by Russian oil and gas profits, wages that for many, outmass whatever average wage they would get in their home town. Asking why won’t Ukrainians die and leave their families worse off is a bit silly when we have the results of Russia throwing money at their soldiers but also throwing them into appalling situations on the front. 

what’s the wages of Ukrainian soldiers? Anyone know? 

Soldiers who have signed a contract and are on the front line receive a monthly salary comparable to Russian salaries of about $2,500. Soldiers in the rear receive a salary of about $500 per month. I don't know anything about the salaries of mobilized Ukrainians. I assume that they are comparable to contract soldiers. The main difference with Russians is the salary, which is given in one payment for signing a contract - about $20,000, which Russians receive immediately after signing the contract. This is a huge amount by both Russian and Ukrainian standards. Families of Ukrainians whose relatives died on the front line can receive $24,000.