How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

[Blazing 88's]

 

[Blazing 88's]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

....I wonder if this might be taken into account for M1E3

 

 

Good video and in depth:

 

[Eug85]

23 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Wow - spectacular stuff alright - Someone should be getting in touch with the Ukrainian Government ASAP and let them them know that Eug85 has said they are done  .

Do you think there will be a dash to Kursk next? It's unlikely, the Russians have transferred enough units for the offensive to get bogged down. They are even starting to gradually push out the Ukrainians. They recently recaptured a number of villages west and east of Sudzha

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Eug85 said:

How good, you answer your own question. I can also add that we do not know the criteria for assessing the success of the Kursk operation, because we do not know its goals. If it was carried out in order to stop the advance of the Russians in the Donbas by pulling reserves to another direction, then this is definitely a failure.

As for grind, this is how they won wars, for example, this is how they defeated Germany in World War II. We see the same thing now: no brilliant strategic operations, but superiority over the enemy in manpower, technology and means of production

"You're traveling through another dimension -- a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind".

I am afraid to ask, but how do you define technological superiority.  I know I am gonan regret asking but what the hell.

[keas66]

Just now, Eug85 said:

Do you think there will be a dash to Kursk next? It's unlikely, the Russians have transferred enough units for the offensive to get bogged down. They are even starting to gradually push out the Ukrainians. They recently recaptured a number of villages west and east of Sudzha

I think I'd be more concerned about Glushkovo If I were the Russians

[alison]

13 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I don't like Musk nor the Israeli regime, but in this case I hope they have a lil bromance and send a little gift to Khadyrov.

I get this might be meant in jest, but I don't think it does much for the reputation of the west to entertain the idea of a billionaire private businessman arranging the assassination of a foreign politician, no matter how disagreeable of a dictator he might be.

It is a lot more difficult to make the case to the Global South that we are not the bad guys when we are seen assassinating people we don't like, or when we give billionaires a pass for behavior that would see any ordinary person thrown in prison.

I guess the GWoT has desensitized people because there has been a glut of government ordered assassinations over the past 20 years, but that still doesn't make them right. Sometimes I wonder if the whole deep state conspiracy/can't trust the government thing has been fueled by these sorts of actions. Like, you're covert operatives, guys, at least try to keep your wetwork a secret! 

Anyway, I think being the good guys means we have to do better. Everyone knows every country gets its hands dirty behind the scenes, but there's degrees of wading into the muck, and at least with the war in Ukraine the west has managed to stay on the cleaner side, for now. Personally I would prefer to keep it that way, since it might pay off in helping build relationships that could be useful in the next conflict.

[FancyCat]

Quote

German arms manufacturing giant Rheinmetall has successfully tested its Skyranger 35 air defense system on the Leopard 1 tank chassis, seen here firing a stream of 35mm shells at a proving ground.

Rheinmetall appears to be moving towards fielding a new, lower cost SPAAG.

 

[sburke]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I ave thought for a long time that the single most effective sanction that we could impose on Russia would be to remotely brick every Iphone, every BMW, and every Mercedes in the country. The only conceivable reason for NOT doing that is that we are listening to everything, all the time. 

Also, Musk doesn't want video evidence that battery of a Cybertruck makes a bigger boom than a fueled and ammoed BTR.

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, alison said:

I get this might be meant in jest, but I don't think it does much for the reputation of the west to entertain the idea of a billionaire private businessman arranging the assassination of a foreign politician, no matter how disagreeable of a dictator he might be.

It is a lot more difficult to make the case to the Global South that we are not the bad guys when we are seen assassinating people we don't like, or when we give billionaires a pass for behavior that would see any ordinary person thrown in prison.

I guess the GWoT has desensitized people because there has been a glut of government ordered assassinations over the past 20 years, but that still doesn't make them right. Sometimes I wonder if the whole deep state conspiracy/can't trust the government thing has been fueled by these sorts of actions. Like, you're covert operatives, guys, at least try to keep your wetwork a secret! 

Anyway, I think being the good guys means we have to do better. Everyone knows every country gets its hands dirty behind the scenes, but there's degrees of wading into the muck, and at least with the war in Ukraine the west has managed to stay on the cleaner side, for now. Personally I would prefer to keep it that way, since it might pay off in helping build relationships that could be useful in the next conflict.

It was indeed in jest, although I personally wouldn't mind if Khadyrov had drew its last breath just now.

Anyway I agree that 'The West' have to at least play by the rules if we want others to live by them. In that light, mistakes have been made in the past.

OTOH, the Israeli regime already went muuuch further down that rabbit hole so doing that wouldnt hurt it further. I guess Musk should just go back to managing his other companies instead of this dopamine fueled twitter spree.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

That is really funny!

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Eug85 said:

Who would have thought. After two and a half years of war, Ukrainian officers have not learned to command their units. It seems that the Ukrainians neglect to systematize and use military experience. While the Russians seem to be successfully systematizing the experience gained during the war and increasing the effectiveness of their troops.

I don't think this is a fair statement.  I think it is a fair statement that both sides have shown some significant improvement for a subsection of their forces in terms of effective fighting techniques.  However, by and large the rest of the forces are fighting along Soviet lines.  The difference is that, generally, the average Ukrainian unit fights better than the average Russian unit. 

We've also seen Russia go to inhuman extremes to keep their offensives going, including barrier troops and dispatching walking wounded to frontline positions.  Russia learning that meatwaves are the most economical way to wear down Ukraine is certainly a tactic, but I hope one that Ukraine doesn't view as a model to emulate.

So, overall, no.  I do not think one can say that Russia is getting better relative to Ukraine in a military sense. 

Steve

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Eug85 said:

To be honest, at any level, Ukraine's situation is getting worse, while Russia's situation is improving.

Russia improving like the old Russian proverb?

"Everything will be better.
Today may be not as good as yesterday,
but it is better than tomorrow."

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

Russia improving like the old Russian proverb?

"Everything will be better.
Today may be not as good as yesterday,
but it is better than tomorrow."

Followed by a sound of emptied vodka glass smashing into the fireplace.

[The_MonkeyKing]

long term loss ratios continue to be surprisingly stable:
https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine (Oryz data overtime)

 

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

At absolutely maximum panic, there is a war on people, level panic, how long would it take to produce a thousand of them? How long to produce 5000? And price?

 

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

"You're traveling through another dimension -- a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind".

I am afraid to ask, but how do you define technological superiority.  I know I am gonan regret asking but what the hell.

Very simply, it is the ability to produce more weapons than your opponent. During the Second World War, the Russians produced more weapons than Germany (the numbers of tanks produced are impressive). Today, Russia produces more weapons than Ukraine. In my opinion, this is obvious. Russia has an advantage over Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

Better than mounting it on a Leopard 2 chassis, but ideally it should be on a truck to bring acquisition and sustainment costs down even further.  That includes getting rid of the notion of armor for the gun system.  Because, in my view, these things are most likely going to be useful behind the front shooting at the enemy's strategic level drone/missiles and not mixing it up at the front where drones are tiny and unlikely to present good targets for this system.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Eug85 said:

Very simply, it is the ability to produce more weapons than your opponent. During the Second World War, the Russians produced more weapons than Germany (the numbers of tanks produced are impressive). Today, Russia produces more weapons than Ukraine. In my opinion, this is obvious. Russia has an advantage over Ukraine.

Sure, Russia has a lot of advantages over Ukraine because of its size and scale of industrialization.  But that was even truer in February 2022 than it is today.  And yet, Ukraine is still holding its own and even capable of inflicting serious harm (Kursk, ammo depots, airfields, oil refineries, Black Sea Fleet, etc.).  Therefore, it's pretty obvious that material advantages are only part of the equation and, thanks to Western allies, not necessarily the most important one.

Steve

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Very simply, it is the ability to produce more weapons than your opponent. During the Second World War, the Russians produced more weapons than Germany (the numbers of tanks produced are impressive). Today, Russia produces more weapons than Ukraine. In my opinion, this is obvious. Russia has an advantage over Ukraine.

you said

Quote

superiority over the enemy in manpower, technology and means of production

so unless you meant "superiority over the enemy in manpower, production and means of production" you need to define TECHNOLOGY

Even Russians say that Ukraine is outdoing them on drone development not to mention wiping the Black Sea fleet without really having a navy.

Edited 8 hours ago by sburke

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Russia improving like the old Russian proverb?

"Everything will be better.
Today may be not as good as yesterday,
but it is better than tomorrow."

All this is fun, but after delving into the current situation it becomes sad. Western aid has noticeably decreased compared to previous years. Anti-Ukrainian forces in the West feel increasingly confident and receive more and more support from the population. The number of volunteers willing to defend Ukraine is steadily decreasing, and the effectiveness of mobilized Ukrainians is low, which greatly affects the combat capability of Ukrainian units. Personally, I do not find much reason to be cheerful.

[sburke]

Russian Soldiers Charged With Killing U.S. Man Who Fought for Moscow in Eastern Ukraine (msn.com)

Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, identified the suspects as Russian Armed Forces servicemen Vitaly Vansyatsky, Vladislav Agaltsev, Vladimir Bazhin and Andrei Iordanov.

According to investigators, three of the men tortured Bentley on April 8, leading to his death. Vansyatsky and Agaltsev then allegedly blew up a car with Bentley’s body inside and ordered Bazhin to conceal the remains.
The men face charges including abuse of power resulting in death, as well as desecration and concealment of a body.

The motive behind Bentley’s murder has not been disclosed, but his allies have speculated that he may have been mistaken for a spy. Bentley’s wife, Lyudmila, previously claimed that Russian soldiers from a tank battalion abducted him.

Bentley, nicknamed “Texas” by his fellow servicemen, fought for the Donetsk-based Vostok battalion between 2014 and 2017 and became a Russian citizen in 2021.

Edited 8 hours ago by sburke

[Eug85]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

you said

so unless you meant "superiority over the enemy in manpower, production and means of production" you need to define TECHNOLOGY

Even Russians say that Ukraine is outdoing them on drone development.

Today this superiority is not so obvious and I think in the future Russia will produce more drones than Ukraine. By the way, Ukrainians admit that Russians have outpaced them in technology by launching mass production of FPV drones on fiber optics. These drones are resistant to electronic warfare. There are more and more complaints from Ukrainian soldiers on the Internet.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

All this is fun, but after delving into the current situation it becomes sad. Western aid has noticeably decreased compared to previous years. Anti-Ukrainian forces in the West feel increasingly confident and receive more and more support from the population. The number of volunteers willing to defend Ukraine is steadily decreasing, and the effectiveness of mobilized Ukrainians is low, which greatly affects the combat capability of Ukrainian units. Personally, I do not find much reason to be cheerful.

As a troll he is somewhat above average....

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Eug85 said:

Today this superiority is not so obvious and I think in the future Russia will produce more drones than Ukraine. By the way, Ukrainians admit that Russians have outpaced them in technology by launching mass production of FPV drones on fiber optics. These drones are resistant to electronic warfare. There are more and more complaints from Ukrainian soldiers on the Internet.

source?  anything?  "on the internet" is about the worst source statement one can use these days.. especially if one doesn't provide an example.

Today I won the lottery.  I know it is true cause it was on the internet.  I posted it.  Where is my damned money!

an FPV using fiber optics is not gonna fly 10 km.  it is also gonna trail a fiber optic cable leading back to the operator.  That really doesn't sound like a technological advantage.