How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think this is overdone and too simplistic in many ways.  I mean they have been waging terror strikes for two years now, have we seen up surges in people fleeing?  Brutality has to have a political goal, unless this is just spite and vengeance for the UA killing thousands of RA soldiers. There is no evidence of Ukraine being cowed, in fact when these strikes occur the opposite happens.

When there is no more children hospital left what will happen? Drive everyone with cancer and their families out of the country? It can be rebuild and russia will strike it again, their missile production outpaces building construction. US position has not changed, Poland may or may not do something about missiles heading to them. Its a red line and the response is not there. Hopefully it comes in the coming days, but i doubt it.

Syria is a key example I think of russia checking every UN protected hospital,.. off the list and crossing unanswered red lines in rebel controlled areas. Now these places are shells of what they were, because nobody that can will stay in a city that has no heating, no medical capacities, no power to keep refriderated goods from spoiling and the daily occurance of death and mayham on market places and bakeries. No matter how many crimes assad and putin commited there, the people flee. 

This is less critical about Kyiv but smaller Towns, where russia has been increasing their shellings and bombings. those will more and more lack everything needed to live. Having to evacuate them all would be a catastrophy. 

 

Edited July 9 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Kraft said:

When there is no more children hospital left what will happen? Drive everyone with cancer and their families out of the country? It can be rebuild and russia will strike it again, their missile production outpaces building construction. US position has not changed, Poland may or may not do something about missiles heading to them. Its a red line and the response is not there. Hopefully it comes in the coming days, but i doubt it.

Syria is a key example I think of russia checking every UN protected hospital,.. off the list and crossing unanswered red lines in rebel controlled areas. Now these places are shells of what they were, because nobody that can will stay in a city that has no heating, no medical capacities, no power to keep refriderated goods from spoiling and the daily occurance of death and mayham on market places and bakeries. No matter how many crimes assad and putin commited there, the people flee. 

This is less critical about Kyiv but smaller Towns, where russia has been increasing their shellings and bombings. those will more and more lack everything needed to live. Having to evacuate them all would be a catastrophy. 

 

So some sort of infrastructure denial?  I don’t know, Ukraine is a big country to try and pull that sort of campaign.  I mean maybe earlier in the war but do we know what Russian missile production looks like?  In Syria they did not have sanctions and were not bleeding out on the battlefield.

I am sure there is some sort of master plan here but frankly it is a complete mess.  Terror is not being done at scale to really have the effect they are looking for.  Lobbing missiles on sporadically does not build up enough pressure. People get used to it - see London during the Blitz.

A lot of people have been harping on “Russia Sux” and frankly I think it has become a cognitive crutch at the tactical level.  But operationally and strategically, I can make no sense out of this clown show.  They cannot pull together a coherent strategic strike campaign. And yet, they can somehow keep generating troops to send to their doom.  The closest they came was when they tried to take out electricity infrastructure, which was looking like it may go somewhere but really did not pan out.  So now they go back to shopping malls and hospitals?

As to Western responses, well billions keep flowing and we keep moving those red lines…and stuff like this makes that easier.  The US position has not changed…it is sending billions in support of Ukraine. 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So some sort of infrastructure denial?  I don’t know, Ukraine is a big country to try and pull that sort of campaign.  I mean maybe earlier in the war but do we know what Russian missile production looks like?  In Syria they did not have sanctions and were not bleeding out on the battlefield.

I am sure there is some sort of master plan here but frankly it is a complete mess.  Terror is not being done at scale to really have the effect they are looking for.  Lobbing missiles on sporadically does not build up enough pressure. People get used to it - see London during the Blitz.

A lot of people have been harping on “Russia Sux” and frankly I think it has become a cognitive crutch at the tactical level.  But operationally and strategically, I can make no sense out of this clown show.  They cannot pull together a coherent strategic strike campaign. And yet, they can somehow keep generating troops to send to their doom.  The closest they came was when they tried to take out electricity infrastructure, which was looking like it may go somewhere but really did not pan out.  So now they go back to shopping malls and hospitals?

As to Western responses, well billions keep flowing and we keep moving those red lines…and stuff like this makes that easier.  The US position has not changed…it is sending billions in support of Ukraine. 

Yep, we need to stand against the serial mass murdering, child kidnapping, city leveling, political/economic terrorist known as Putin.  He's everything that humanity should oppose.  He's just so sick, sending thousands upon thousands to their death for nothing when he already was King of a petro-based money factory.  

[FancyCat]

Decent point about the Blitz, was not Hitler a proponent of terror bombing? Only have wiki sources, but things like Rotterdam, Belgrade, etc, maybe Putin and co just like the idea of demolishing civilian targets for whatever notions of lowering morale despite it being against conventional ideas? 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly cannot understand the Russian logic in any of this.  First, is the theory that if they keep hitting children’s hospitals that Ukraine will tap out?  Why on earth is that even thought to be viable? Especially after they tried a bunch of brutality in this war and it got them nowhere.  And then there is the response from the West.  Killing sick children only leads to us pushing more resources and taking the leash off targeting restraints.  Does Russia honestly think we are going to go “whoa, hey they are hitting hospitals…we should back off?”

It is phenomenally dumb and has no win angle.  Do they think that Russian support for this war will go up by hitting hospitals?  No evidence of that.  I simply cannot see a “win” by doing stuff like this in any direction.  It does not attack critical military infrastructure. It does not aid military objectives.  It does not aid strategic objectives, or political ones for that matter.  It comes off as spiteful and small…not to mention illegal.

So why would they decide to do this?  It makes no sense.

Think violent drug cartels.  The answer to any problem involves escalating the violence and outrage.  In Darwinian terms, if you want to be on top and you're not smart, you need to be violent.  And the less on top you are, the more violent you need to be.  At least this is what those with limited intelligence believe.

Russians have a pathological obsession with the West's perceived weakness when it comes to death.  They aren't wrong.  A portion of the West is easily convinced that everybody would just be better off if Ukraine surrenders.  Hell, we even had a Ukrainian making that argument.

Steve

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Think violent drug cartels.  The answer to any problem involves escalating the violence and outrage.  In Darwinian terms, if you want to be on top and you're not smart, you need to be violent.  And the less on top you are, the more violent you need to be.  At least this is what those with limited intelligence believe.

This is wise indeed.  The heart of fascism and bullying in general.  

[chuckdyke]

You don't negotiate with a dog with rabies, you put it down. I apologize to all dogs who suffer from rabies. 

[Letter from Prague]

I think looking for logical, well-thought-out reasons behind this is misplaced. Russians are brutal because that is their culture - see even Russians living peacefully in the West assaulting refugees and stuff. They do it because it is who they are, not because they have a good reason.

But do not underestimate the psychological warfare of the double standard - Russia can specifically target hospitals and nobody will do anything (because escalation) but if Ukraine hits one house, not even an apartment building, accidentally, the West collectively loses their minds. That has impact in showing off how Russians truly are higher on the food chain.

[Offshoot]

On the debate about how far out defence against drones should reach. Just waiting to see multi-layered cages.

 

[Carolus]

3 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

On the debate about how far out defence against drones should reach. Just waiting to see multi-layered cages.

 

"You see Ivan... if cover of metal cage is big enough to reach enemy capital... you can walk to Kiev without fear of drone!"

[Probus]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And this has almost nothing to do with this thread and so I've tired of it as well.

Now a message for all.  I agree with Kraft that we've gotten ourselves too deep in the weeds of the tech and are losing focus on the war.  I know there's not a lot of information being churned out right now, but what is coming into this thread is not really getting enough attention.

As one that has helped derail us into the weeds, I'd be happy if we returned to 1 page of posts per day that are all relevant.

Steve

You got it!  It was a really interesting deep dive though.  But we do need to refocus.

I hope I haven't been ninja'd already.  Just think, Russia.  The superpower Russia, has to come begging to North Korea.  That has to be telling.

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Grabbed them by the oil and gas orders and squeezed.

[dan/california]

 

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Grabbed them by the oil and gas orders and squeezed.

I wonder if the Russian MOD is even capable of finding most of the Indians it has shoved in the meat grinder at this point? Once you reach the point of sending guys back to the front on crutches  suspect little distinctions like nationality are getting lost in the fog. 

I guess it does mean Russian recruitment efforts in India will be dialed way back.

[ArmouredTopHat]

It truly is crazy how ingrained alcohol is to the Russian culture and its negative effects on health. 

Or the fact that alcohol makes up a major part of the country's income. 

Edited July 9 by ArmouredTopHat

[Kraft]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The closest they came was when they tried to take out electricity infrastructure, which was looking like it may go somewhere but really did not pan out.  So now they go back to shopping malls and hospitals?

Theres ~3 hours of guaranteed electricity per day in Kyiv, with 60-70% of the infrastructure gone at this point.

It is worse in regions closer to the frontline, I'd say the goal is nearly complete, so they are going to the next lowest priority which is hospitals.

Interception rate has been decreasing since 2024, the last attack was roughly 50% interception.

In winter there will not be enough generators to supply every town and village with one and these local gathering spots will be a big target for russian strikes. 

[Probus]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Theres ~3 hours of guaranteed electricity per day in Kyiv, with 60-70% of the infrastructure gone at this point.

It is worse in regions closer to the frontline, I'd say the goal is nearly complete, so they are going to the next lowest priority which is hospitals.

Interception rate has been decreasing since 2024, the last attack was roughly 50% interception.

In winter there will not be enough generators to supply every town and village with one and these local gathering spots will be a big target for russian strikes. 

Well that is not good. F***ing Russians.

[ArmouredTopHat]

18 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Theres ~3 hours of guaranteed electricity per day in Kyiv, with 60-70% of the infrastructure gone at this point.

It is worse in regions closer to the frontline, I'd say the goal is nearly complete, so they are going to the next lowest priority which is hospitals.

Interception rate has been decreasing since 2024, the last attack was roughly 50% interception.

In winter there will not be enough generators to supply every town and village with one and these local gathering spots will be a big target for russian strikes. 

The good news is that the Russians have not hit any nuclear power stations (There are three unoccupied iirc) Just yet, which means there should be some level of power generation left. If they decide to hit those (I Imagine they have been quietly told doing so will ensure an intervention) then who knows at that point...

[Carolus]

43 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

The good news is that the Russians have not hit any nuclear power stations (There are three unoccupied iirc) Just yet, which means there should be some level of power generation left. If they decide to hit those (I Imagine they have been quietly told doing so will ensure an intervention) then who knows at that point...

They don't need to hit the nuclear plants themselves, only the transformers. They're are two kinds - those that transform voltage up for long-distance transport and those that transform down to low voltage for distribution.

When the latter nodes are destroyed, Ukraine can also not get any juice from the EU. The high-voltage would arrive, the cities would not be able to access it.

This is basically what some bloggers have been saying that Ukraine should have been doing for two years now in terms of targets in Russia, especially since it would knock out the electrified railway in Russia (which is like 60-70% of locomotives).

But for some reason, except for one or two single occasions, they never did. Refineries and oil depots seem to be the most common strategic targets.

It is likely that the shortages in the cities are timed to provide most electricity for the weapons factories and other things which keep Ukraine alive, and unfortunately there is that qualitative difference between living and surviving.

Edited July 9 by Carolus

[Letter from Prague]

24 minutes ago, Carolus said:

This is basically what some bloggers have been saying that Ukraine should have been doing for two years now in terms of targets in Russia, especially since it would knock out the electrified railway in Russia (which is like 60-70% of locomotives).

Realistically, they probably couldn't do that. Transformers are much smaller targets than refineries, so hitting them with Ukrainian domestic weapons would not work very well, and striking into Russia with Western weapons is forbidden.

edit: also the West would probably freak out if Ukraine targeted "civilian infrastructure". I already heard enough complaints about the oil infrastructure being attacked.

Edited July 9 by Letter from Prague

[ArmouredTopHat]

36 minutes ago, Carolus said:

They don't need to hit the nuclear plants themselves, only the transformers. They're are two kinds - those that transform voltage up for long-distance transport and those that transform down to low voltage for distribution.

When the latter nodes are destroyed, Ukraine can also not get any juice from the EU. The high-voltage would arrive, the cities would not be able to access it.

This is basically what some bloggers have been saying that Ukraine should have been doing for two years now in terms of targets in Russia, especially since it would knock out the electrified railway in Russia (which is like 60-70% of locomotives).

But for some reason, except for one or two single occasions, they never did. Refineries and oil depots seem to be the most common strategic targets.

It is likely that the shortages in the cities are timed to provide most electricity for the weapons factories and other things which keep Ukraine alive, and unfortunately there is that qualitative difference between living and surviving.

Well the other good news is that historically air based bombardment has never really done much to break a country. It can and will cause problems and disruption, but it never wins a war by itself. Even precision ( A word I dont use much for the Russians) only goes so far, especially when the EU can at least provide things like generators and repair assistance. The Russians simply dont have the capacity to carpet bomb cities into ruin from the air either (just when they get into artillery range) 

Its probably why Ukraine are keen to ensure Kharkiv does not fall under widescale artillery range,  because the Russians will bomb it to ruin if they can. 

The winter is going to suck for sure, but this wont be breaking the Ukrainians or their will to fight. if anything this sort of brutality towards people only hardens their resolve. 

*Edit* Another note is that this sort of attack will hopefully spur the west into broader support, especially on the Air defence side. There are are bunch of incoming / possible incoming patriot systems that will provide a lot of relief if they do turn up (And free up the more mobile systems to go and hit planes)

Edited July 9 by ArmouredTopHat

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting, very recent, report from Chasiv Yar front:

https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/well-defend-it-with-our-lives-visiting?r=wy11y&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

Theres ~3 hours of guaranteed electricity per day in Kyiv, with 60-70% of the infrastructure gone at this point.

It is worse in regions closer to the frontline, I'd say the goal is nearly complete, so they are going to the next lowest priority which is hospitals.

Interception rate has been decreasing since 2024, the last attack was roughly 50% interception.

In winter there will not be enough generators to supply every town and village with one and these local gathering spots will be a big target for russian strikes. 

Yeah while everyone has been focusing on tanks and drones in the thread, everyone seems to have missed that Ukraine is facing some bad scenarios this winter. Russia's ramped up attacks on civilian and major infrastructure will cause severe problems for Ukraine, and the west needs to do more to ensure they can resist, if nothing else than to prevent another refugee wave to the EU.

At this rate, I fully expect Ukraine to begin targeting Russian civilian and major infrastructure if the West does not allow the use of its weapons to hit military targets in Russia.

From a FT article in the beginning of June,

On 6/5/2024 at 3:20 AM, FancyCat said:

 “If no measures are taken, according to our modelling, then probably the population will have only two to four hours of electricity [per day] in January,” said Dodonov.

If you think Ukraine will let their country freeze to death while Russia sits pretty lobbing missiles at hospitals without undertaking retaliation in a bid to stop them, your silly. Better for the west to control Ukraine's response than the alternative.

Edited July 9 by FancyCat