Fenris Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 I think there's a BTR in this clip somewhere. Good luck modelling improvised armour in the CM release covering this one. Has anyone else noted that there seems to be a marked reduction in the number RU BMPs showing up in clips being posted or am I imagining things? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kraft said: "destroying russian vehicles doesnt matter" the new drone proof Z-Sturm assault chicken cages. As amusing as this sort of thing appears, I think it's just the reality of forced adaptation. Here's a thread posted today with clips of RU guys on a bike with a side car that is eventually hit by an FPV. We've been seeing a reasonable number of bikes being used recently and what's also interesting is the numerous wrecks they pass along the road. It's like they're being forced further and further down the vehicle food change - AFVs, then military transports, then civilian transports and now motorcycles, all of which lie wrecked on the side of the road. Hopefully it's a further indicator of the effect of RU loses. Posting a link because the first clip ends up showing the rider's injuries so it's restricted (nothing too gruesome). https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1797315983759049004 Edited June 3 by Fenris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Fenris said: As amusing as this sort of thing appears, I think it's just the reality of forced adaptation. I know and the reality applies for either side, not just russia of course. Probably to more western armies than many people here think. A couple hundred planes won't solve this, you would have to solely win by air and only the US can realistically do that. It was meant as a jab at the idea that russias vehicle losses at Krynki dont matter because hordes of infantry and their chicken cage motorcycles will frontally assault a ww1 trench better than a BTG or 10, that are listed on Oryx now instead. Edited June 3 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 49 minutes ago, Fenris said: When we saw this kind of thing at the start of the war on the UKR side it was understood they were using anything they had that could shoot. The more we see of it coming from RU sources the more it indicates to me that their losses are biting. As to personnel, I too have been wondering for a long time how they do it. That is not an indirect fire system, it is an industrial party noise maker. If I am not mistaken that is a rocket pod from a helicopter? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 1 hour ago, FancyCat said: Its tough going for both sides. Glide bombs still rain on Kharkiv, despite the lesser restrictions, according to the article, the airfields where the bombers take off and fire them off, are off limits, located in Voronezhv. i pulled some paragraphs. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/01/us-ukraine-weapons-kharkiv-biden/ Yup. This is the same thing we were discussing about F-16s. The problem is that Russia can fly from very distant bases and drop the bombs well before they enter any sort of practical kill zone. I think the only thing that could be assured of getting them is a Patriot battery pretty close to the front. And we know what a bad idea that is. The only way to end the glide bomb menace is to destroy a few hundred aircraft on the ground. Which isn't going to happen. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 It's hard to imagine this is sustainable for Russia for another year: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 46 minutes ago, Fenris said: I think there's a BTR in this clip somewhere. Good luck modelling improvised armour in the CM release covering this one. Has anyone else noted that there seems to be a marked reduction in the number RU BMPs showing up in clips being posted or am I imagining things? We've seen waves of BTRs before. It seems to be a function of a BTR based unit being used until it's all used up. Which means dozens of blown up BTRs within a fairly short period of time and space. In the past I've taken it as a sign of BMP shortages, but if it was then they were temporary. That said, I do remember seeing a graph of Russian vehicle losses a month or so ago which showed a pretty convincing trend line that seems to indicate this time it's more due to BMP shortages. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 4 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: Feel like this is relevant to the topic on hand. It does truly baffle me how the Russians are putting up with such reckless, casual waste of life on a continued basis. I know states and peoples are quite resilient when it comes down to this, but there surely has to be a point where it all starts to catch up and create real pressure. This is something I've been thinking about for a while. I get how folks can not care when it's other RU men getting slaughtered, especially from minority ethnicities. What I can't fathom is why they themselves would then just repeat the process when they are put on the meat conveyer? Do they not know what's going on? But what can they do if they realize they are about to have an 80% chance of death/serious wound? Can they mutiny? It's RU culture, you can't trust anybody. What can they actually do when told to make a hopeless, probably suicidal attack? I keep waiting for mutinies, but if it's happening we sure don't hear about it. We've had a few anecdotes of groups refusing to attack but I suspect the security teams move in very quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 15 minutes ago, The_Capt said: That is not an indirect fire system, it is an industrial party noise maker. If I am not mistaken that is a rocket pod from a helicopter? Yeah it's an airbourne rocket pod. Used on both jets or helo's. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: The only way to end the glide bomb menace is to destroy a few hundred aircraft on the ground. Which isn't going to happen. Maybe not with F16s and ATACMs or Storm Shadows, but I think once Ukraine runs out of refineries and radars to blow up with long-range drones, they might go back to these sort of actions. They don’t need to take out every plane, but if they can destroy a few percent every few months, that will have an effect. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 42 minutes ago, danfrodo said: This is something I've been thinking about for a while. I get how folks can not care when it's other RU men getting slaughtered, especially from minority ethnicities. What I can't fathom is why they themselves would then just repeat the process when they are put on the meat conveyer? Do they not know what's going on? But what can they do if they realize they are about to have an 80% chance of death/serious wound? Can they mutiny? It's RU culture, you can't trust anybody. What can they actually do when told to make a hopeless, probably suicidal attack? I keep waiting for mutinies, but if it's happening we sure don't hear about it. We've had a few anecdotes of groups refusing to attack but I suspect the security teams move in very quickly. I would postulate that any attempts to seriously mutiny or otherwise disobey orders are treated very harshly. We hear a lot of horror stories about caging soldiers, denying them medical treatment and just general poor levels of treatment by other units or officers as typical measures put in place. The thing with such measures is it does not eliminate the reasons why the soldiers are understandably upset, and one wonders if it might lead to more dangerous implosions down the line as things drag on. Incidents where Russian officers are killed are ones to look out for if large enough units of soldiers finally snap and decide to take matters into their own hands. Its happened before in Russian history in similar situations and these were not exactly pretty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Yup. This is the same thing we were discussing about F-16s. The problem is that Russia can fly from very distant bases and drop the bombs well before they enter any sort of practical kill zone. I think the only thing that could be assured of getting them is a Patriot battery pretty close to the front. And we know what a bad idea that is. The only way to end the glide bomb menace is to destroy a few hundred aircraft on the ground. Which isn't going to happen. Steve I think F-16 can substantially reduce the glider bombing threat simply with presence. I mentioned this in an earlier post but simply painting the offending incoming jets with their search radars would probably result in an effective mission kill and a jettison of bombs. Depending on the AMRAAM version Ukrainian F-16s will use the kill box might be a little more generous than we assume and force the VKS to be even more cautious. Its not going to stop every bomb strike but a consistent enough presence of F-16s will significantly hamper effective sortie rate and hopefully give some relief to the soldiers on the ground. Right now they can fly with near total impunity for glide bombing outside of the lesser chance a Patriot is moved up into range. We have already seen how slow it takes for the Russians to adapt as their operations are constrained, so we might even see a bunch of kills as well prior to this. Edited June 3 by ArmouredTopHat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Maybe not with F16s and ATACMs or Storm Shadows, but I think once Ukraine runs out of refineries and radars to blow up with long-range drones, they might go back to these sort of actions. They don’t need to take out every plane, but if they can destroy a few percent every few months, that will have an effect. For sure Ukraine can do a lot of things to make the glide bomb campaign more costly for Russia. However, as I said it will take a massive effort to effectively put a stop to it. And that won't be happening any time soon. There's just too many planes coming from too many airfields to degrade the capability quickly. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 52 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Maybe not with F16s and ATACMs or Storm Shadows, but I think once Ukraine runs out of refineries and radars to blow up with long-range drones, they might go back to these sort of actions. I don't think Ukraine is holding back on hitting airfields because they are too far down on the priority list Long range drone strikes have been successful because they are hitting undefended targets. Airfields are defended. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 12 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said: I don't think Ukraine is holding back on hitting airfields because they are too far down on the priority list Long range drone strikes have been successful because they are hitting undefended targets. Airfields are defended. That and planes have a tendency to move more than refineries Ukraine had some good success early on because, as we were just discussing, they hadn't put in the resources to hardening distant airfields because they didn't see the need. Once Russia saw that Ukraine could smash UAVs into airfields hundreds of KMs from the border, they made berms, bunkers, decoys, management plans, etc. to mitigate the opportunities for Ukraine. They might also have figured out flaws in their previous air defenses and shored that up. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Russian telegrammer Two Majors on the Zaporizhzhia front on the dangers of Ukrainian drones: https://t.me/dva_majors/44195 Quote They write to us from the Zaporozhye Front: 🖋I wish you good health! I would like to report on the situation and write recommendations in the Zaporozhye direction. Ukrainian reconnaissance actively uses drones of various types - reconnaissance, attack - kamikaze and even redirecting signals from our headsets. In addition, their artillery calibrates their fire using drones, making their attacks more accurate. Electronic warfare is blocking our communications and navigation. Therefore, camouflage and cover become vital. The ban on movement during the day was introduced for a reason. Unfortunately, we have lost many people precisely because of non-compliance with these rules. They detect any movement and open fire. There were cases when guys a few hundred meters from the positions went out to eat or just breathe out - and received shrapnel wounds. Safety rules are now very strict, and breaking them means being irresponsible with your life. Disguising equipment and shelter is also the number one security issue. Khokhol directs the artillery and records the coordinates for each flash. Therefore, even a slight movement of cars can cause an artillery strike. We constantly update camouflage nets, collect fresh vegetation, and so on, so as not to give away positions. Near the front line the situation is even worse. There, evacuation is a real roulette. In a matter of minutes you can lose a lot of blood, and the ambulance transport will not have time to arrive; there is not always enough of it! This leads to severe irreversible consequences. Therefore, there we try to stay as collected as possible and not take risks unless absolutely necessary. In general, the situation is very tense, but we hold on! We must strictly follow the rules - this will help us survive. If someone forgets about safety even for a minute, there can be extremely negative consequences both for himself and for the entire group. I hope this information will help you gain a better understanding of the realities on the front lines and help you prepare appropriately. Be careful and vigilant! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 9 hours ago, poesel said: If this drone's prototype had been shown here, it would have been dismissed as not good enough because it is prone to easily get stuck in terrain. But sometimes something is enough, even if it only works in favorable circumstances. Ukrainian ground kamikaze drone blows up Russian dugout. I have seen russian ugvs do the same to Ukrainian trenches too. I imagine it happens once in a sector then the local troops spend 15 minutes putting branches or holes in front of their strong points and the problems stop. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Quote WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 3, 2024 ■ Casualties above 7-day average despite a drop in combat engagements ■ Artillery & special equipment losses at record 7-day losses ■ Fewer strikes, improved strike ratio ■ Janovsky: 40 14 added; 30-day ratio at 2.4x https://mastodon.social/@ragnarbjartur@masto.ai/112551698739795438 I am sure a lot of EW equipment in Belgorod is having smoking accidents these days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 6 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: I would postulate that any attempts to seriously mutiny or otherwise disobey orders are treated very harshly. We hear a lot of horror stories about caging soldiers, denying them medical treatment and just general poor levels of treatment by other units or officers as typical measures put in place. The harsh discipline is a big influence in what makes the Russian effectively have a different morale effects table than other nations' units. But there are other factors, which IMHO include at least the following significant ones. 1) fear of being captured by the Ukrainians; this creeps up consistently in the videos - RUS soldiers consistently talk about surrendering being the worst fate. This would be a huge factor as it eliminates the simplest option of getting away from combat. I do not know the reason for this belief - obviously we do not see everything on videos, but those we see do not suggest that the Ukrainians subject the POWs to atrocities. As opposed to Russians themselves, who seems to starve the prisoners to the edge of death. 2)Culturally low value of human life - I think that the evidence of this war in particular strongly supports the thesis, that Russians culturally assign low value to human life, which includes their own. It has long been a subject of jokes that Russians use human life as a disposable asset in lieu of machines * but I was not sure if it has any relation to reality. Well, it has. A hypothesis suggests itself, that the Russian life feels so unpleasant and dangerous, that they are not willing to expend much effort to keep it. To a psychologist trained in the West, they probably exhibit symptoms of a depression. *e.g. An old Polish joke recounts a dialogue in a Russian trench during WWII: Comrade commander, German tanks incoming. How many? 20. Take a grenade, make them run away. 5 minutes later: Comrade commander, the tanks have run away. Good lad, give the grenade back . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxromana Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: 1) fear of being captured by the Ukrainians; this creeps up consistently in the videos - RUS soldiers consistently talk about surrendering being the worst fate. This would be a huge factor as it eliminates the simplest option of getting away from combat. I do not know the reason for this belief - obviously we do not see everything on videos, but those we see do not suggest that the Ukrainians subject the POWs to atrocities. As opposed to Russians themselves, who seems to starve the prisoners to the edge of death. It's like the Germans in WW2 ... especially on the Eastern Front ... THEY knew what THEY had been doing there and (rightly) feared what would be done to them in return, should they be captured/lose. I would suggest that the average Russian soldier well understands that their side's behaviour is barbaric towards all and sundry and are, therefore, afraid that they will be treated the same. It must come as a surprise to those who are captured that they are NOT treated as they have been treating Ukrainians. We know that Ukrainian POWs and civilian Hostages have been welcomed back home when they return and have, indeed, been welcomed as heroes ... but I can't recall any sources mentioning how the Russian POWs exchanged for them have been teated by THEIR side? Prison? Penal Battalion at the Front? Anyone know? Edited June 3 by paxromana 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 Video of the destruction of the carefree Russian convoy around Kursk. Looks like it was all FPVs and not himars. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 o.O Quote EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Ukrainian Special Forces and Syrian Rebels Decimate Russian Mercenaries in Syria An exclusive video obtained by Kyiv Post shows Ukrainian forces (#HUR) attacking enemy checkpoints, foot patrols, convoys of military equipment in Syria. kyivpost.com/post/33695 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 21 minutes ago, Offshoot said: Video of the destruction of the carefree Russian convoy around Kursk. Looks like it was all FPVs and not himars. From the map looks like about 2.5kms from Ukrainian border, well within FPV range. Why send an expensive HIMAR to do the job of about 100k worth of drones. RA likely thought they were safe in Russia or took a wrong turn. Of course we are looking at logistical trucks, can’t disperse these like AFVs/IFVs at the best of times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 (edited) Russians managed to lose a significant part of another S-300/400 battery from a GMLRS strike recently. More complacency about western weapons hitting valuable assets again. Why the hell are they not relocating such valuable assets the moment they knew HIMARS could hit them? Edited June 3 by ArmouredTopHat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 3 Share Posted June 3 5 hours ago, cesmonkey said: Russian telegrammer Two Majors on the Zaporizhzhia front on the dangers of Ukrainian drones: https://t.me/dva_majors/44195 That's a particularly sober/somber perspective from what has been one of the less active fronts. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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