How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

EDIT: got too angry, deleting this.

Edited May 26 by Letter from Prague

[ZellZeka]

16 minutes ago, Tux said:

No, sorry, there’s no convincing argument here:

Granted, for the sake of this discussion. 

Assertion/speculation.  Needs support.

On the contrary to what?  Also, this is baseless assertion again (feel free to add a base for it though).  Also, you don’t get to introduce what turns out to be an assertion as an “argument” and then immediately leap to calling it a “fact”.

Overall, given that you’re the one who identified “logical thinking” as the basis for your argument, your grasp of how rational inductive reasoning works seems to be lacking.

 

tl;dr - You don’t have a rational argument here.  You have a stream of thought which ends in a conclusion that you find meaningful but you cannot expect anyone else to find it convincing.

Well, please forgive me, I’m just new to this forum and I lack the skills of reasoned communication, unlike much more experienced participants.

 

In any case, I believe that communicating with you will improve my argumentation skills

[ZellZeka]

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

EDIT: got too angry, deleting this.

Here is an example that I remember well: Thousands of Czechs went to a rally in support of Russia

[chuckdyke]

We have English speaking NATO members and the Continental NATO members. The statements of some US politicians that the Continental NATO members are not pulling their weight start to rub the wrong way. 

[Tux]

29 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Here is an example that I remember well: Thousands of Czechs went to a rally in support of Russia

From your own link:

“[The demonstration was organised by] a new political party known as PRO. … [The] group, whose name in English stands for Law, Respect, Expertise, has no seats in parliament.”

Forgive me if I don’t expect a Prague Putsch any time soon.

Every country has its extremists, with or without external provocation and support.  Spotting them in the wild doesn’t mean they represent a majority opinion.

Edited May 26 by Tux
Formatting

[Letter from Prague]

57 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Do you want to say that the moods of the Czechs differ from the moods of the Slovaks who are close to them in spirit and worldview?

Yes. Based on being one and living in the country.

Also based on the election results - most of the parties with actual presence are pro-West, including the populists (who had some anti-war messaging in the presidential elections and it is thought that's what lost them the elections). There is one pro-Russian far right party nobody wants to touch with about 10 % of votes. The president is former NATO general and heavily in support of Ukraine.

Meanwhile Slovakia has just (2023) elected openly pro-Russian and anti-West parties and (2024) openly pro-Russian and anti-West president. Though given that the Slovak prime minister recently got shot for his pro-Russian stance, I'm feeling the results are not that one-sided either, the country is pretty divided. They might follow Hungary's path or they might not.

[Letter from Prague]

I'm still not convinced the early warning radar is not a Russian psyop. Ukraine has been going after Russian air defence pretty strongly last few months - whether to increase efficiency of their strategic strikes or in anticipation of F-16s which should arrive "this summer" or some other reason I don't know. And they have been successful too, if the information on Russia removing air defence from basically everywhere else on their borders is correct.

It is suspicious that radars are now suddenly untouchable. I wonder if this will extend to S-300 and 400 as well, those are ballistic missile defence and as such part of nuclear defence too.

[cesmonkey]

 

[ZellZeka]

44 minutes ago, Tux said:

From your own link:

“[The demonstration was organised by] a new political party known as PRO. … [The] group, whose name in English stands for Law, Respect, Expertise, has no seats in parliament.”

Forgive me if I don’t expect a Prague Putsch any time soon.

Every country has its extremists, with or without external provocation and support.  Spotting them in the wild doesn’t mean they represent a majority opinion.

 

But this does not change the fact that thousands of Czechs responded and took to the streets to support them

[Tux]

8 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

 

But this does not change the fact that thousands of Czechs responded and took to the streets to support them

No, it doesn’t.  Do you still think thousands of Czech people at this demonstration supports your claim that “Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia”, though?

The answer is no, it doesn’t, and in fact the article you linked to specifically mentions that the party who organised the demonstration have zero parliamentary representation. That suggests that their position specifically isn’t representative of most Czech citizens.

We also have Letters from Prague telling us, as a Czech person himself, that this pro-Russian position is not widely popular in a Czechia.  Of course, in isolation, his contribution is only anecdotal but do you see how your link actually supports his assertion more than it does your own?

[ZellZeka]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

No, it doesn’t.  Do you still think thousands of Czech people at this demonstration supports your claim that “Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia”, though?

The answer is no, it doesn’t, and in fact the article you linked to specifically mentions that the party who organised the demonstration have zero parliamentary representation. That suggests that their position specifically isn’t representative of most Czech citizens.

We also have Letters from Prague telling us, as a Czech person himself, that this pro-Russian position is not widely popular in a Czechia.  Of course, in isolation, his contribution is only anecdotal but do you see how your link actually supports his assertion more than it does your own?

In Ukraine, pro-Russian parties are also not represented in parliament, but this does not negate the presence of significant pro-Russian sentiments in Ukrainian society

 

 

In addition, many of my friends and relatives here in Ukraine also support Russia. And Zelensky’s extremely unsuccessful policy aimed at mobilization is forcing more and more Ukrainians to support Russia.

 

I recommend abandoning Ukrainian propaganda, it greatly distorts reality

Edited May 26 by ZellZeka

[danfrodo]

deleted

Edited May 26 by danfrodo

[Tux]

7 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

In Ukraine, pro-Russian parties are also not represented in parliament, but this does not negate the presence of significant pro-Russian sentiments in Ukrainian society

Well yes, you’re right, because pro-Russian parties have been banned in Ukraine.  I’m not aware that they’ve been banned in Czechia so, on the face of it at least, no representation in Czech Parliament means not many people want to be represented by them in Czechia.

 

16 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

In addition, many of my friends and relatives here in Ukraine also support Russia. And Zelensky’s extremely unsuccessful policy aimed at mobilization is forcing more and more Ukrainians to support Russia

Ok, well that’s your friends’ and relatives’ right, confusing though I may find it (‘I don’t want the trauma and inconvenience of mobilisation, therefore I support the people trying to kill us’ - I mean wtf?!).  What is clear though is that they represent Czech opinion even less than those thousands who turned out to support PRO, don’t they?

[ZellZeka]

6 minutes ago, Tux said:

Well yes, you’re right, because pro-Russian parties have been banned in Ukraine.  I’m not aware that they’ve been banned in Czechia so, on the face of it at least, no representation in Czech Parliament means not many people want to be represented by them in Czechia.

 

Ok, well that’s your friends’ and relatives’ right, confusing though I may find it (‘I don’t want the trauma and inconvenience of mobilisation, therefore I support the people trying to kill us’ - I mean wtf?!).  What is clear though is that they represent Czech opinion even less than those thousands who turned out to support PRO, don’t they?

Agree, if Ukraine capitulates right now, all bloodshed will stop immediately. People in Kharkov will stop dying under Russian bombs, the residents of Kherson will stop dying under Russian artillery shells, and our infrastructure will stop suffering. Agree, there is a certain logic in this.

 

The West will also breathe a sigh of relief, because the threat of nuclear war will immediately cease. The defeat of Ukraine is beneficial to everyone and, conversely, the victory of Ukraine is not beneficial to anyone

Edited May 26 by ZellZeka

[Sojourner]

I recommend abandoning Russian propaganda, it greatly distorts reality.

[Tux]

For the record, all, I’m well aware that ZellZeka’s posts so far are almost comically familiar in tone, content and even syntax to a certain category of posters this thread seems to attract one of every couple of months.  As noted previously I think it’s always important to engage in good faith on the off chance that such is reciprocated.

If/when we find out it’s not I will happily drop out and let nature take its course.  

[FancyCat]

The Polish Foreign Minister was interviewed by the Guardian, interesting interview, European defense industry is still worried about long term spending, he does give tidbit of U.S response to Russian nuclear weapons use in Ukraine.

Quote

He was sceptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: “The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them.  “I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/25/poland-foreign-minister-radoslaw-sikorski-long-term-rearmament-europe

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Agree, if Ukraine capitulates right now, all bloodshed will stop immediately. People in Kharkov will stop dying under Russian bombs, the residents of Kherson will stop dying under Russian artillery shells, and our infrastructure will stop suffering. Agree, there is a certain logic in this.

 

The West will also breathe a sigh of relief, because the threat of nuclear war will immediately cease. The defeat of Ukraine is beneficial to everyone and, conversely, the victory of Ukraine is not beneficial to anyone

Ladies and Gentlemen, it appears we have a russian troll!  He finally gets to his point.  The only way for the suffering to stop is for UKR to capitulate.  I am hoping this post leads to an immediate ban because you are obviously just an RU propagandist.

And same with NATO countries, the only way to ensure you are not attacked is to capitulate now!  

[ZellZeka]

Ukraine's problems with anti-aircraft weapons have opened up the possibility for the Russians to use attack drones. For example, these Iranian Mohajer-6.

[Tux]

3 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Agree, if Ukraine capitulates right now, all bloodshed will stop immediately. People in Kharkov will stop dying under Russian bombs, the residents of Kherson will stop dying under Russian artillery shells, and our infrastructure will stop suffering. Agree, there is a certain logic in this.

 

The West will also breathe a sigh of relief, because the threat of nuclear war will immediately cease. The defeat of Ukraine is beneficial to everyone and, conversely, the victory of Ukraine is not beneficial to anyone

Just like the bloodshed stopped in Bucha when Ukraine was defeated there?

The last serious response you’re getting from me is this:  you are not currently capable of rational argument, so educate yourself and teach yourself the intellectual discipline required to master it before you expect others to be swayed by your arguments.  Once you have done that you will understand for yourself how utterly nonsensical your above post was and the absurd conclusions that would stem from it if it was anywhere close to correct.

 

Ok, I’m done.

[ZellZeka]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ladies and Gentlemen, it appears we have a russian troll!  He finally gets to his point.  The only way for the suffering to stop is for UKR to capitulate.  I am hoping this post leads to an immediate ban because you are obviously just an RU propagandist.

And same with NATO countries, the only way to ensure you are not attacked is to capitulate now!  

I apologize, but then it is necessary to ban all Ukrainian propagandists as well. In addition, the administrator made it clear that he will not tolerate Ukrainian propaganda

[ZellZeka]

2 minutes ago, Tux said:

Just like the bloodshed stopped in Bucha when Ukraine was defeated there?

What happened in Bucha is the direct fault of the Ukrainian government as well as the low discipline of Russian soldiers. If the government had evacuated civilians from the combat zone in advance, nothing like this would have happened. In the event of capitulation, only a relatively small number of Ukrainian nationalists will suffer, while the majority of Ukrainians will be free to continue living their lives. 

[danfrodo]

Bucha was the direct fault of the Ukrainians?  If you said that to my face I would be very tempted to punch your teeth out.  If you said that inside Ukraine you would probably not live long, and deservedly so.  

You are quite obviously a russian troll, not ukrainian.  We are not the imbeciles that you might find on facebook.

I suppose all the washing machines would've safe also given a capitulation?

Edited May 26 by danfrodo

[ZellZeka]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Bucha was the direct fault of the Ukrainians?  If you said that to my face I would be very tempted to punch your teeth out.  If you said that inside Ukraine you would probably not live long, and deservedly so.  

You are quite obviously a russian troll, not ukrainian.  We are not the imbeciles that you might find on facebook.

 

The Russians marched as liberators, they did not intend to shoot civilians. However, the idiotic behavior of some Ukrainians, who, dressed in civilian clothes, attacked Russian convoys and killed Russian soldiers, forced the Russians to be overly suspicious and aggressive.

[Grey_Fox]

33 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Agree, if Ukraine capitulates right now, all bloodshed will stop immediately. People in Kharkov will stop dying under Russian bombs, the residents of Kherson will stop dying under Russian artillery shells, and our infrastructure will stop suffering. Agree, there is a certain logic in this.

 

The West will also breathe a sigh of relief, because the threat of nuclear war will immediately cease. The defeat of Ukraine is beneficial to everyone and, conversely, the victory of Ukraine is not beneficial to anyone

If you just give Hitler what he wants, he'll be happy and we'll have peace in our time.

Edited May 26 by Grey_Fox