The_Capt Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 47 minutes ago, pintere said: Much as I hate to be "that guy", word from the Kharkiv front is not good. It seems there is not much in the way of minefields, fortifications and men to defend at all. The attached BBC article interviews a Ukrainian soldier who stated that the Russians had just "walked in". https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo A Ukrainian telegram channel (which included a video of Russians marching in column) had this to say: "Ukrainian defence is apparently not so robust in Kharkiv region after all. Ruzzian infantry is just marching. Our drone operators are also commenting about the poor defence. I say like it is… Vovchansk will be occupied very soon " The impression I get is that, just as the Russians were complacent in Fall 2022 on this front, so too have the Ukrainians been complacent in preparing for the possibility of a serious attack in this area. I hope to be proven wrong, time will tell. It is the fact that they are walking...and the UA can see them walking that is blowing my mind. Artillery? FPVs? Sniper? In the grand scheme this is still pretty minor as invasions go but to let it happen uncontested with the RA walking in is not a good thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 On 5/11/2024 at 6:47 PM, ASL Veteran said: The bumbling clown David Axe though... Wonder when he'll repeat his "US special forces are fighting in North Korea" and claim that they're behind all the explosions and sabotage in Russia soon? But as for the rest of those clips... even just being in the home guard, that makes me very appreciative of how densely forested Sweden is. The idea of having to just trying to exist in remotely open areas with the prospect of being personally targeted by tiny drones roaming around is disturbing, bordering on horrifying. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 hours ago, The_Capt said: Well sure, but for the cost of this next gen F35 tank I can buy and employ a few hundred thousand drones. 4 hours ago, hcrof said: This is the fundamental thing. Cheap computing power has fundamentally changed the relative value of few, expensive and special. It isn't worth it, and you never have even ten percent of them that you actually need. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 hours ago, hcrof said: So I think we will have to disagree on that one. Watching videos of stuff getting blown up in Ukraine makes one think that everything is being watched all at once, and to an extent it is, but how much processing power is required to simultaneously watch thousands of km2 is a level of detail to pick up something within a few minutes? Not all that much. There are even array detectors that only record changes, not the actual images. Everything is the same size once you put it on a detetector array (meaning I can use the same tools from microscopy to astronomy because it's all ending up on similar sized arrays and the only difference is scale factor) and change detection is pretty easy. Computers are cheap and happy to sit and watch images all day and all night and alert you with a summary of changes and how likely they are to be interesting to you, and they don't get distracted by something happening in one corner of the image and ignore the rest, or forget to pay attention to the corners. Having the computer figure out what's actually interesting is trickier, but for a lot of things not all that hard. If you have some idea of the reflection or emission spectra of the things you're looking for and there aren't a lot of other things that match them, it's easy. Even if there are other things that match them there are probably secondary characteristics you can use for filtering. Even cheap, lower power computers can do this. Someone with a bunch of GPUs that burn money faster than they earn [crypto]coin can rent those out for image processing of enormous amounts of ISR data. Or a company that has enough computing power to sell everybody the latest and greatest videogame platform on Black Friday/Cyber Monday without going down can rent that to governments to process all the ISR data there are and still have cycles left over except the day after thanksgiving (that would be the day to stage for your surprise attacks). Computing is cheap and getting cheaper. ISR is more interesting because with certain capabilities (semiconductor design/mass fab) it becomes very cheap, but without them it's expensive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASL Veteran Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 12 hours ago, dan/california said: The question is can air supremacy be achieved by anybody, ever again. All of the issues that tanks are having have direct correlates with the challenges facing manned aircraft. And the whole world has watched Ukraines air defense system essentially stop the Russian Air Force cold, and Israel's system knock down essentially the entirety of a big missile strike. I think a LOT of countries are going to draw the lesson that a many layered integrated air defense system is a LOT more useful than actual aircraft. And those integrated air defense systems are going impose denial, or at least REALLY heavy casualties on even first tier air forces. We will certainly learn more when Ukraine finally gets F-16s into the fight. But I am not expecting them to change the game all that much. I would love to be wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 44 minutes ago, The_Capt said: In the grand scheme this is still pretty minor as invasions go but to let it happen uncontested with the RA walking in is not a good thing. Well, looking at a slightly more zoomed out map, right now at least they're apparently on the wrong side of the river for Kharkiv. Doesn't exactly look like that axis is a defensive priority. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 18 minutes ago, chrisl said: Not all that much. There are even array detectors that only record changes, not the actual images. Everything is the same size once you put it on a detetector array (meaning I can use the same tools from microscopy to astronomy because it's all ending up on similar sized arrays and the only difference is scale factor) and change detection is pretty easy. Computers are cheap and happy to sit and watch images all day and all night and alert you with a summary of changes and how likely they are to be interesting to you, and they don't get distracted by something happening in one corner of the image and ignore the rest, or forget to pay attention to the corners. Having the computer figure out what's actually interesting is trickier, but for a lot of things not all that hard. If you have some idea of the reflection or emission spectra of the things you're looking for and there aren't a lot of other things that match them, it's easy. Even if there are other things that match them there are probably secondary characteristics you can use for filtering. Even cheap, lower power computers can do this. Someone with a bunch of GPUs that burn money faster than they earn [crypto]coin can rent those out for image processing of enormous amounts of ISR data. Or a company that has enough computing power to sell everybody the latest and greatest videogame platform on Black Friday/Cyber Monday without going down can rent that to governments to process all the ISR data there are and still have cycles left over except the day after thanksgiving (that would be the day to stage for your surprise attacks). Computing is cheap and getting cheaper. ISR is more interesting because with certain capabilities (semiconductor design/mass fab) it becomes very cheap, but without them it's expensive. This is where the defense department has to commit long term. They need to build specialized fabs that can do the specialized semiconductors the civilian market won't support, IN QUANTITY. Buying five hand built systems per year, produced by the modern equivalent medieval master craftsmen has to stop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 21 minutes ago, Hapless said: Well, looking at a slightly more zoomed out map, right now at least they're apparently on the wrong side of the river for Kharkiv. Doesn't exactly look like that axis is a defensive priority. I don't think that map is accurate. Here's Deep State's situation map. https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.1648/36.5419 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 12 hours ago, dan/california said: The question is can air supremacy be achieved by anybody, ever again. All of the issues that tanks are having have direct correlates with the challenges facing manned aircraft. And the whole world has watched Ukraines air defense system essentially stop the Russian Air Force cold, and Israel's system knock down essentially the entirety of a big missile strike. I think a LOT of countries are going to draw the lesson that a many layered integrated air defense system is a LOT more useful than actual aircraft. IADS is reactive. A properly equipped and trained airforce is absolutely going to find a way around or through it, given enough time and opportunity. I would argue that both Israel and Ukraine are far from representative of typical IADS. Israel is a tiny country which has "played tall" to use a strategy game term to the extent that they've basically used cheat codes in the "game": no budget on Earth can compare to the combined American-Israeli budget that's gone into research and construction of Israel's IADS, and I don't think any country on Earth with that small an area to defend has even found itself in a prolonged conflict, so it's the absolutely largest total IADS effort going into defending a country the size of New Jersey. Ukrainian air defences were hardly state of the art by the time of February 2022, so the issues would likely have more to do with the Russian airforce looking more like the extremely large plane collection of a billionaire Tankie obsessing about the USSR than a 21st century, modern airforce. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Anthony P. said: IADS is reactive. A properly equipped and trained airforce is absolutely going to find a way around or through it, given enough time and opportunity. I would argue that both Israel and Ukraine are far from representative of typical IADS. Israel is a tiny country which has "played tall" to use a strategy game term to the extent that they've basically used cheat codes in the "game": no budget on Earth can compare to the combined American-Israeli budget that's gone into research and construction of Israel's IADS, and I don't think any country on Earth with that small an area to defend has even found itself in a prolonged conflict, so it's the absolutely largest total IADS effort going into defending a country the size of New Jersey. Ukrainian air defences were hardly state of the art by the time of February 2022, so the issues would likely have more to do with the Russian airforce looking more like the extremely large plane collection of a billionaire Tankie obsessing about the USSR than a 21st century, modern airforce. It all comes back to the same set of cost curves. When computing power is dirt cheap defense costs a LOT less than offense, and the problem is only going to get worse. The platforms that let the U.S. air force do this today are already costing fifty million dollars and up. Can their possibly enough of the next generation of exquisite platforms to defeat a large opponent that isn't utterly incompetent? Keep in mind everybody else has watched what happened in Ukraine too, We are not the only people taking notes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 8 hours ago, ZellZeka said: A residential building exploded in Belgorod. Pay attention to the timer in the video. This is the local time displayed on the CCTV camera. The explosion occurred at 11:21, accurate to the second. This happens when someone sets the clock mechanism to explode. Perhaps. It's also interesting that they are inadvertently bombing their own territory: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 hours ago, poesel said: I guess the Ukis would be very, very happy if they could put a 'Shotgun-APS' on every SPG & HIMARS they have, even if that only worked 50% of the time. Btw: you missed the 'low power radar' part. No point in reaching out for kms if your weapon range is two digit meters. A low power radar will always look like a beacon for a much longer range than it functions effectively as a radar. An enemy that knows you have them will just toss some sensor/munition package into the mix to fly into your radar until it's gone. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 56 minutes ago, dan/california said: It all comes back to the same set of cost curves. When computing power is dirt cheap defense costs a LOT less than offense, and the problem is only going to get worse. The platforms that let the U.S. air force do this today are already costing fifty million dollars and up. Can their possibly enough of the next generation of exquisite platforms to defeat a large opponent that isn't utterly incompetent? Keep in mind everybody else has watched what happened in Ukraine too, We are not the only people taking notes. Well, an F-4 Phantom costed a lot more than a Corsair too, but the SA-2 (and the SA-3, SA-6, SA-8) didn't come close to being the end of it. Air defences balloon in cost just the same as the planes do. IADS has much the same high costs and training requirements that planes have, and it's never been a guaranteed defence against an airborne foe: the Russian airforce hasn't exactly won, but when you look to the extreme punishment Ukraine has suffered at its hands in spite of receiving state of the art air defences from the West, you'd hardly say that they've won either. And the VVS is the short bus branch putting commercial GPSs on the canopies of their fighters in 2024. I think the same thing goes for both the future of the tank and for planes: you need a spear just as much as you need a shield. Otherwise, having even the finest shield will mean that you're just standing there, blocking thrusts and slashes... until you miss just once and get skewered like a kebab. It's easy to look at all the pictures and films of downed aircraft or brewed up AFVs and reach the conclusion that the future will be to just dig in and chuck swarms of drones at each other until someone cries uncle. But they don't show the factories, powerplants and guns destroyed by the planes which weren't shot down or the soldiers getting blasted by the tanks which weren't destroyed by drones. And we've been here before at least once with ATGMs and the "death" of the tank back in 1973, yet Ukraine and Russia are both gobbling up every serviceable tank they can get their hands on despite the tank's latest death over two years ago. That lone T-34 in the Victory Day parade must be quite worried by now. Edited May 12 by Anthony P. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Update from Oleksandr Syrskyi: https://t.me/osirskiy/689 Quote The situation at the front remains tense. The enemy is actively attacking our units in several directions with the aim of advancing deep into the territory of our state. The units of the Defense Forces are fighting fierce defensive battles, the attempts of the Russian invaders to break through our defenses have been stopped. Our intelligence, artillery, units of unmanned systems are working. We know the enemy's plans and react flexibly to all his actions. To strengthen the defense, all necessary measures are taken and decisions, including personnel, are promptly made. This week, the situation in Kharkiv Oblast has significantly worsened. Currently, there are ongoing battles in the border areas along the state border with the Russian Federation. The situation is difficult, but the Defense Forces of Ukraine are doing everything to hold defensive lines and positions, inflict damage on the enemy. In the Kupyansk, Siversk, Lymansk, Pokrovsky directions, fierce battles continue, the situation is changing very dynamically. In some areas, the enemy has partial success, in others, the Defense Forces push the enemy out and improve their tactical position. In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy does not stop trying to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, continues its offensive east of the city. Unsuccessfully tries to restore the lost position in the Klishchiivka area. Despite the difficult situation at the front, units are being rotated to rest servicemen and restore the brigades' combat effectiveness. Together to victory! Glory to Ukraine! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty's Mighty Moustache Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Putin set to replace Shoigu as defence minister https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-69000698 MMM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said: New Perun that is for once very topical Watched it and finally we have a word for those "barn on wheels" Russian vehicles - Perun calls them "Assault Shed" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said: Putin set to replace Shoigu as defence minister https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-69000698 MMM Rybar posted his thoughts on the new guy: https://t.me/rybar/60003 Quote ️Well, Russia has a new Minister of Defense - Andrei Removich Belousov . More precisely, his candidacy has just been submitted for approval, but everyone understands everything. This once again demonstrates that the Russian system never follows the opinion of the population and does not rely on its aspirations and hopes (no matter how many forecasts someone makes). In practice, the appointment of Belousov as Minister of Defense means the beginning of a large-scale audit and restructuring of all financial models within the defense department, as well as potentially the abandonment of “feigned” beauty . Belousov is a fairly tough and effective leader who works 24/7, knows how to count and is Vladimir Putin’s confidant (primarily on economic issues). In conditions of severe time pressure, Belousov will definitely prefer not slide reports, but two Excel plates on 1 sheet with two economic options. And he will make a decision based on this sign, because he knows how to count . Belousov is the person who always had his own point of view on many things, albeit unpopular. This is probably exactly what the Russian defense department needs today. #WSRF #Russia @rybar and his thoughts on Shoigu's new role: Quote ️Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been promoted to the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Where exactly Nikolai Patrushev will go is still unknown. Perhaps for him, just like for Medvedev, in due time they will come up with an additional position and a separate direction in which he will work. Or perhaps Nikolai Platonovich simply received his long-awaited resignation. What will Shoigu’s arrival mean for the Security Council? Renewal and shake-up (personnel loyal to Shoigu will need to be brought in). At this stage, a certain almost caste system has developed in the structure of the Security Council with no opportunity for upward growth for individual employees. Perhaps , in the current conditions, this will mean restructuring the mechanism of work of the Security Council on a slightly different plane. Maybe. Quote By the way, the withdrawal of the FSMTC (Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation) from under the wing of the Ministry of Defense has become clear: the structure responsible for the Russian defense industry and export operations, following Shoigu, went under the supervision of the Security Council and its new head. Actually, nothing fundamentally has changed: the same person has the leverage. However, through the Security Council, it may become easier to resolve certain bureaucratic obstacles to clear the road for the FSMTC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said: Putin set to replace Shoigu as defence minister https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-69000698 Could it be? EDIT: Guess not. Edited May 12 by Vanir Ausf B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosuri Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 5 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said: Putin set to replace Shoigu as defence minister https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-69000698 MMM Whoa. There's been rumours in the past few days, but they were wrapped in so much hyperbole that it was difficult to judge if there was anything real behind. Looks like we'll know soon enough what Shoigu's next post will be ... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 minutes ago, mosuri said: Whoa. There's been rumours in the past few days The other half of those rumors were that Gerasimov is also out, possibly replaced by a rehabilitated Surovikin. Stay tuned 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I wonder if it even means anything, or it they are rearranging deck chairs on Titanic ... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Similarities to the sidelining of Sergei Ivanov in 2016 seem to be happening today in Moscow. Worth noting that the direction of Russian policy didn't change appreciably but instead Putin curtailed the status of potential competitors: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/20/world/asia/myanmar-civil-war.html It will be weeks before the meaning of all of this will become clear but I'd say watch what happens with Patrushev's sons, watch Diumin, watch if there are any changes made in leadership at the Rosgvardia. And whatever you do, don't spend a second on what office Patrushev is offered when all is said and done. He's unlikely in any case to have the influence he exerted up until today unless he overtly or covertly usurps Putin. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, dan/california said: It all comes back to the same set of cost curves. When computing power is dirt cheap defense costs a LOT less than offense, and the problem is only going to get worse. The platforms that let the U.S. air force do this today are already costing fifty million dollars and up. Can their possibly enough of the next generation of exquisite platforms to defeat a large opponent that isn't utterly incompetent? This is incoherent. Strategically, is the US military (and The West generally) an offensive force, or a defensive one? If it's defensive (as in, maintain-the-status-quo defensive), then there's nothing to fret about. Defensive primacy? Bring it on, baby! If you're worried about /restoring/ the status quo, then your argument kind of fails at the first hurdle, since it presupposes that any actor can somehow magically overcome this defensive primacy. So, which is it; defensive primacy, or Serbia could overrun Europe tomorrow if they wanted to? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 7 minutes ago, JonS said: If you're worried about /restoring/ the status quo, then your argument kind of fails at the first hurdle, since it presupposes that any actor can somehow magically overcome this defensive primacy. We've seen this in Ukraine. Defensive primacy doesn't mean you get to keep all your territory if enemy is fast enough or overwhelms you in a specific place. And it also doesn't mean your enemy won't just lob missiles at your hospitals and kindergartens forever, because they can't and you can't stop them with only defensive weapons. edit: or you have allies that don't have your trench system and want to help them - but the enemy is already there. Or, speaking of Serbia, you want to stop ongoing genocide. You can't protect even yourself just by defending, much less others. (In a hilariously stretched connection I've had the same conversation with regards to "this is why I train muay thai and not aikido".) Edited May 12 by Letter from Prague 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said: The other half of those rumors were that Gerasimov is also out, possibly replaced by a rehabilitated Surovikin. Stay tuned Apparently Gerasimov is staying (towards the bottom of the article) Russian defence minister and long-time Putin ally Sergei Shoigu to be replaced | World News | Sky News Quote As he continues to confirm his top team, Mr Putin has also proposed Sergei Lavrov remain as foreign minister. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's general staff, will remain in his position as well. Edited May 12 by Eddy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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