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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's been a while since we've dug into the "court politics" inside of the Kremlin.  With Putin's sham election complete, now is a good time to look at what might be going on behind the scenes.  Here's a recent in-depth look at Russian politics (the real ones) from The Atlantic Council.  I've only started reading it, but it looks quite interesting as it's looking at who might succeed Putin when he eventually retires (likely death in office, but who knows).

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/all-the-autocrats-men-the-court-politics-of-putins-inner-circle/

Steve

wouldn't call it a sham election though. Ironically this was probably one of the fairest ones since he was elected for the first time. Russians did show up in droves to support the war.

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27 minutes ago, kraze said:

wouldn't call it a sham election though. Ironically this was probably one of the fairest ones since he was elected for the first time. Russians did show up in droves to support the war.

BS of the highest order.  You have zero proof of this and just about no one who knows anything about election processes outside of Russia agrees with you.

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Some important stats from Rob Lee on countermeasures against drones. 

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I think people underestimate the countermeasures to UAVs, which are often fairly cheap. >40% of downed Shaheds are shot down by mobile teams with Zu-23-2 and HMGs, EW poses a serious threat to FPVs/Shaheds, and Osa-AKM proved effective against Orlans when paired with new tech.

Just making the point that what we see in Ukraine may not be representative of other wars, and future developments may affect the offense-defense balance regarding UAVs and their countermeasures.

 

 

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Interesting they can intercept the video feeds. Definitely eludes to a dynamism of counter-drone warfare. 

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Videos of Russian soldiers watching Ukrainian FPVs strike Russian targets after intercepting their video feed in Kherson Oblast. They are alerting their colleagues what the FPVs are targeting.

Both sides do this. They can task EW or their own FPVs to stop the adversary's FPV, and can alert troops to turn on their trench EW jammers or take cover.

 

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

BS of the highest order.  You have zero proof of this and just about no one who knows anything about election processes outside of Russia agrees with you.

There is one estimate by a Russian exile newspaper that roughly half of the votes for Putin were faked based on released counting numbers vs. times when people usually go to a polling station.

That would mean Putin got something like 43%, missing an absolute majority.

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4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

There is one estimate by a Russian exile newspaper that roughly half of the votes for Putin were faked based on released counting numbers vs. times when people usually go to a polling station.

That would mean Putin got something like 43%, missing an absolute majority.

Considering that he basically: controls the media, makes real opposition disappear (or kills them outright), has central control of internal security who are arresting anyone who even has a whiff of real dissent, and anyone running against him is basically approved by him - Russia isn't even close to a functioning democracy at this point anymore than North Korea is.  To come here claiming otherwise is disinformation of the worst sort.

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2 hours ago, kraze said:

wouldn't call it a sham election though. Ironically this was probably one of the fairest ones since he was elected for the first time. Russians did show up in droves to support the war.

Completely agree. Of course, there were ballot papers throwings, but I doubt it were on 30 % level, as claimed some analysts. I've seen screenshots of Russian social media, where members of polling stations committees with visible scare tell each other that on their stations weren't any throwings, but Putin has won with overhelming margin.  We all could see queues of Russian citizen in European countries, which demonstratively said they come to vote for Putin, in Germany they openly demontsrated DNR flags, and "St.Georgian stripes" - "out of spite to the whole world"

Yes, on some foreign polling stations Davankov has won - "liberal" and "anti-war" candidate of "New peoples" party, for which called to vote many of Navalnyi followers 

But here is Davankov today have a meeting with Putin - his words is just "loyal oaths"

 "I congratulate you with a confident victory! I want to say that these actions of Kievan regime has no excusses. I was in 29 regions during my election campaign and I can say in all regions people work for our victory. You absolutely said right that our common goal to win in SMO. It's very important do not remain this confrontation for our next generations. It have to be solved by our. And many people came to me on my meetings and say "Only Vladimir Putin capable to win in this conflict, I will vote for him"

Other Russian influent "liberal" from "libertarian wing" of Navalnyi team - Mikhail Svetov, who now migrated to Argentina said that vicotry of Russia will be profitable for Russian "relocants" (swaggering Russians hate the "political refugees" word concerning themeselve), because this will rise authotity of Russia and will force West to cancel sanctions, which in many things affect Russians abroad.

One more influent "liberal" blames Ukrainians that Putin again came to power (!!!)

Nobody did so much for promoting of current president of Russia, as Ukrainians. Those Russians who tired of 25 years of dictatorship in Russia - do not forget to give thanks brothery Ukrainain people for more 6 years under the thumb of regime

He meant Ukrainains with own "unjustified rusophobia" and mockery over impotent Russian opposition forced liberals to vote for Putin. They are all clynic idiots, sicking with chauvinism.  

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Any who now will say about "innocent peaceful Russians, who are just hostages of Putin's dictatorship" - go to hell and damn you! They just voteed for a war and loyality to Putin's policy. Only one type of real good Russians exists - those, who openly say that Russia is a rashist  state, who stand for Ukraine victory, support UKR army, recognize collective responsibility and agree that Russia have to pay reparations, who consider Russian soldiers are not "our poor boys", but invaders, murderers and rapers, which went at war just for money, Rashist ideology or just for opportunity to kill, who sit in jails for own position, who at last fight with a weapon in free-Russia units or make diversions inside Russia. 

So, I wish Russia to burn in flame, collapse and croack in agony. In order our planet at last get rid of this stinky sh...t spot on the map.    

Edited by Haiduk
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21 hours ago, Sojourner said:

His grip must be slipping. I read he got only 85%.

Actually, he got 105%. But, as the modest person he is, Putin reduced it to 85% to show some respect for the other puppets candidates.

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31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Considering that he basically: controls the media, makes real opposition disappear (or kills them outright), has central control of internal security who are arresting anyone who even has a whiff of real dissent, and anyone running against him is basically approved by him - Russia isn't even close to a functioning democracy at this point anymore than North Korea is.  To come here claiming otherwise is disinformation of the worst sort.

You are quite right that the election was simply a bad joke. Putins cronies put numbers from 75 to 100 percent on a wall, or perhaps a handy political prisoner, an threw darts at them. Unless of course the Czar himself had a preference. 

Having said that, expecting our Ukrainian friends to be entirely rational about Russia two years into an existential war is perhaps more than can reasonably be asked for. And that "party" outside of the Russian embassy is exhibit one on why we STILL need a visa ban.

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Belgorod today. 

What happened? Do you really cry in terror, old vata pussies? Strange, you so joyfully cried recently, when S-300 were flying over your heads to Kharkiv, ruining the city. Get an answer now.  No mercy.  Let Belgorod will turn... well not in Avdiivka or Bakhmut, but at least in northern districts of Kharkiv.

 

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54 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting they can intercept the video feeds. Definitely eludes to a dynamism of counter-drone warfare.

I didn’t realize this wasn’t common knowledge. Commerical drones, especially FPV-type have open video channels on known frequency. Video is not encrypted at all.

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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Some important stats from Rob Lee on countermeasures against drones. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting they can intercept the video feeds. Definitely eludes to a dynamism of counter-drone warfare. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I didn’t realize this wasn’t common knowledge. Commerical drones, especially FPV-type have open video channels on known frequency. Video is not encrypted at all.

All of the above is just one example of how even medium budget purpose built military drones with significant AI, even for targeting in the last kilometer, will turn the volume up to 11 as soon as someone builds a real automated line to build the things. Of course the way Russian oil refineries are bursting into flames the Ukrainians seem to have taken this thought to heart.

Among other things it seems like longer range drones could move "back" to the terrain following guidance the U.S. used for its cruise missiles before GPS, with image recognition for the last bit.

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57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Only one type of real good Russians exists

Sorry my friend but I have to disagree. The only good Russians are those that are feeding the worms in Ukrainian soil. Russians who openly support Ukraine today will suredly turn against her tomorrow. 

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3 hours ago, kraze said:

wouldn't call it a sham election though. Ironically this was probably one of the fairest ones since he was elected for the first time. Russians did show up in droves to support the war.

I wouldn't call it a sham election either...because I wouldn't call it an election. It was a propaganda exercise. As to fair, well...

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Pro-Ukrainain Chechen troops inside the building of administration of Gor'kovskoye rural territory, which includes Gor'kovskoye itself and four tiny villages around - all they can be seen on the scheme on the door. 

Hm... What Russian milblogger "Thirteen" hints with this "Shebekino is town of Russia too". Did Russians lose Shebekino? %)

Image

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57 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You are quite right that the election was simply a bad joke. Putins cronies put numbers from 75 to 100 percent on a wall, or perhaps a handy political prisoner, an threw darts at them. Unless of course the Czar himself had a preference. 

Having said that, expecting our Ukrainian friends to be entirely rational about Russia two years into an existential war is perhaps more than can reasonably be asked for. And that "party" outside of the Russian embassy is exhibit one on why we STILL need a visa ban.

I can fully understand and sympathize with their positions and sentiments.  But lies are lies, no matter who is pushing them.  We either try and hold onto objective truth or we can just become another echo chamber showing one sided war porn and offering weak analysis.  We are challenged enough to avoid our own biases without completely abandoning what this entire thread was supposed to do in the first place.  I oppose disinformation no matter the source.

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