How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

In a potentially kinetic environment, who would you prefer to have your six: 

1. Germany

2. France

3. UK

(edited choice 1)

 

Depends on context of the kinetic environment (there are many variations of that environment).  If we are talking disciplined well coordinated response any of those three would be great.

If you need “zero to f#cking 60 at the bat of an errant eyelash” go with the less traditional partners like Jamaicans or Afghans.

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Latest 3rd Assault Brigade video. Can turn on English subs.

 

With a bit of a recruitment pitch at the end.

 

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Depends on context of the kinetic environment (there are many variations of that environment).  If we are talking disciplined well coordinated response any of those three would be great.

If you need “zero to f#cking 60 at the bat of an errant eyelash” go with the less traditional partners like Jamaicans or Afghans.

We really missed the boat not getting Afghans who were not on the Taliban's good side set up in Ukraine with their whole families. It worked really well with the Chechen exiles.

Edited March 17 by dan/california

[Sojourner]

47 minutes ago, poesel said:

Btw, Putin won the election. With twice the candidates and the age of the candidates 20 years younger (on average) than the US election, it must have been more democratic and better.

His grip must be slipping. I read he got only 85%.

[Kraft]

Some month(s?) ago there was the topic of Krynki and sustaining a Bridgehead /expanding it.

Here is an example of what happens when the pressure is too high on the 2 km marshland route, a Marine with a simple wound that was tied off who could not be evacuated for 14 days. Graphic as the wound turned to necrosis and the limb needs to be amputated. Those with heavier wounds that could not cross either do not need to be evacuated anymore.

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

The more forward looking U.S. military stuff is starting to refer to the FLOS, and the FLOR. The forward line of sensors, and the forward line of robots. This would seem to be case study.

Edited March 18 by dan/california

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Depends on context of the kinetic environment (there are many variations of that environment).  If we are talking disciplined well coordinated response any of those three would be great.

If you need “zero to f#cking 60 at the bat of an errant eyelash” go with the less traditional partners like Jamaicans or Afghans.

Caesar felt the same way about his German bodyguard/calvary. The more things change....

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

Solving the manpower crisis

 

Thanks!  It's been too long since we've had a Ukrainian frontline pet vid.  Much needed!

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

 

[cesmonkey]

WarGonzo reports  on Putin's post-election comments:
https://t.me/wargonzo/18802

Quote

Vladimir Putin ended his speech at a press conference at the election headquarters with words of gratitude to the Russian people and stated that he was determined to do everything to achieve national development goals in all areas. Main points from the speech:

- First of all, we need to solve problems within the framework of the Northern Military District: strengthen defense capabilities, strengthen the armed forces.

— The initiative at the front belongs entirely to Russian soldiers. This is more than active defense.

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have concentrated a group of up to 5 thousand people in the border zone. Enemy losses amount to up to 40%, a third of them are irrevocable.

— The total number of four groups of traitors is up to two and a half thousand people, they are thrown into “meat assaults.” If the enemy likes the “meat grinder,” then it is even beneficial for Russia.

— Attacks on the border areas are still ongoing, but the enemy’s losses are close to critical.

— At some point, it will be necessary to create a certain sanitary zone in the territories subordinate to the Kyiv regime.

“There is no death penalty in Russia, but “we will treat traitors as if they were in a war zone.”

— There are military personnel from NATO countries in Ukraine, but there is nothing good for them there, they die in large numbers.

— On the contact line we hear Western speech. I would very much like France to play a role in a peaceful settlement in Ukraine; all is not lost.

— In any situation, we will proceed from the interests of the Russian Federation. We are for peace negotiations, but not because the enemy is running out of ammunition. We are in favor if they really want to build peaceful, good-neighborly relations between the two states in the long term, and not take a pause for rearmament for one and a half to two years.

— China is developing by leaps and bounds and, what is very important, the structure of the economy in China is changing towards innovation. And we try to do the same ourselves. We will achieve common successes for the benefit of the Russian and Chinese peoples.

 

[Carolus]

Without giving any details, I do not work in the defense industry, but the company I work for provides certain products used by companies in the military industry branch seated in Germany and the US.

The current demand for these products in 2024 has doubled, in some cases it has quadrupled. We are happy to oblige because none of the involved materials experience a bottleneck. What is needed mostly is qualified workers. 

Bt yeah, it is noticeable that over the last two years, capacities inside our customers have been created which now demand supply to cover their increased output.

Edited March 18 by Carolus

[Holien]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

what a sense to strike broken helicopter it's unclear - either this was "false flag",

False Flag...

New HD web cam perfectly framed helo with broken window, fueled to make a bigger bang.

Clearly not flown in ages...

Done in day light, no easy to identify drone, could be anything that destroyed it.

My money on a False Flag, let's see what else happens....

[sross112]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

— In any situation, we will proceed from the interests of the Russian Federation. We are for peace negotiations, but not because the enemy is running out of ammunition. We are in favor if they really want to build peaceful, good-neighborly relations between the two states in the long term, and not take a pause for rearmament for one and a half to two years.

Did Putin actually refer to Ukraine as an equal sovereign political entity and not a wayward Russian possession? If so, that is a pretty big change in rhetoric out of Moscow. 

[hcrof]

9 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Did Putin actually refer to Ukraine as an equal sovereign political entity and not a wayward Russian possession? If so, that is a pretty big change in rhetoric out of Moscow. 

Not sure about that - they say the government is illegitimate. They say that all russian speaking areas of Ukraine should be part of Russia. But I don't think they have ever claimed the whole country - all their maps of a future Ukraine show a small rump state centred on Kiev. 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

I thought RA FPV usage and effectiveness was on the rise.  To the point there was fear of UAS parity.  These charts would suggest otherwise.

[Kinophile]

 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Carolus]

800.000 plus another 700.000, mostly 155mm with some 122mm (?) apparently.

Didn't read anything about 105mm for the light howitzers or 152mm for the soviet legacy equipment (the latter seems to be supplied to a large degree from Bulgaria).

Still needs a lot of funding. Only one third is funded so far.

 

 

Edited March 18 by Carolus

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

To be clear, Im not quite buying his argument here. 

It's possible (no drone) but I'm put off by two factors - his insistence on naming Photoshop as the editing tool (Premiere Pro and After Effects are the right tools), and shutter speed.

PS can be used certainly, but it's comparatively labourius and awkward. AE and PPro are tightly integrated and much more flexible - they're designed to work together. If you have PS then you have PPro and AE - they all come with Adobe Creative Content as a single subscription. Why bother using PS if you have PPro and AE right there? Lack of this basic knowledge on his part gives me pause but is not a definitive point. 

Using a drone would be very easy, but they're are by now many RUS operators capable of doing this attack from a decent distance. Why bother not using one?

In the same breath it's even easier to use a basic drone with no payload, fly it into frame and then scrub it in the timeline before it gets too obvious that it's not armed. The camera is locked so its very simple to scrub the drone out with empty frames - and anyone walking up to the helo as well.

Its obviously a staged even (durr a fueled helo with missing windshield?) but I'm Not yet convinced by this argument of no drone. 

There are some counters to my doubt. The major one is the last section he highlights and gives not a lot of time to, but which I personally view as a serious question:

 

The dark smudge travels with the cloud, yet the following darker cloud has no such tailing smudge (so it's not a lensing artifact). The "gaseous" cloud overlays the helo yet that would put it out into the sunlight, out of the hellos shadow and a Camera like this simply wouldn't pick up that fine gas. Also the gas would go out, and to frame left more than towards camera. It feels additive, ie a visual effect added in post. I even bet that one could find that exact explosion effect in some commercial VFX library. 

TLDR I suspect there was a drone, but it was unarmed. I suspect the helo was bombed manually and the explosion,  though real, has been visually augmented with a preceding "explosion" that is actually a stock video file of a studio-shot VFX asset. 

[Battlefront.com]

It's been a while since we've dug into the "court politics" inside of the Kremlin.  With Putin's sham election complete, now is a good time to look at what might be going on behind the scenes.  Here's a recent in-depth look at Russian politics (the real ones) from The Atlantic Council.  I've only started reading it, but it looks quite interesting as it's looking at who might succeed Putin when he eventually retires (likely death in office, but who knows).

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/all-the-autocrats-men-the-court-politics-of-putins-inner-circle/

Steve

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's been a while since we've dug into the "court politics" inside of the Kremlin.  With Putin's sham election complete, now is a good time to look at what might be going on behind the scenes.  Here's a recent in-depth look at Russian politics (the real ones) from The Atlantic Council.  I've only started reading it, but it looks quite interesting as it's looking at who might succeed Putin when he eventually retires (likely death in office, but who knows).

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/all-the-autocrats-men-the-court-politics-of-putins-inner-circle/

Steve

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000649465131

Another take on the same basic thing. He seems to think Putin is at least considering changing out some of his top people for younger models that can that can be relied on for the rests of Putin's presidency/life. In part this seems to be an attempt to forestall anyone developing anything resembling an power base. Let us hope he chooses poorly.

Edited March 18 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Another take on the same basic thing. He seems to think Putin is at least considering changing out some of his top people for younger models that can that can be relied on for the rests of Putin's presidency/life. In part this seems to be an attempt to forestall anyone developing anything resembling an power base. Let us hope he chooses poorly.

Loyalty over competence is usually the criterion for dictators, so hopefully he'll get some real idiots.  Folks who's main skill is ladder climbing and brown nosing, but will be put in charge of things that actually require competence.  Then will choose subordinate managers also chosen for loyalty over competence, all the way down the chain of decision makers.  Hopefully.