How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The underwater USV problem is basically what it's been for at least 80 years - listening for the high speed screws of torpedos with passive sonar.  And watching for their wake if they're near the surface.  I don't know that there are a lot of other options - RF won't work through the water. Active sonar won't have the speed or spatial resolution, and advertises your position.  Navies have done various things to make active and passive sonar more effective, like using towed buoys so they're spatially separated from the ship, and helicopter dropped active and passive buoys for the same reasons.  But water sucks to look through.

Maybe sharks with laser beams.

But there no reason at all the UUVs can't come in slow and quiet. That is why I agree with The_Capt about big ships, unless somebody makes a major breakthrough. 

On the plus side if Taiwan gets on this bandwagon the way it should, the bill the Chinese would have to pay to invade would be astronomically higher.

Naval dolphins may become a MUCH bigger thing.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

870 km from closest point on the border. 

Both these refineries maintained about 10 % of Russian oil products output. Reportedly, one of this refineries lost 70 % of output, so total loss Russia oil production capabilities already declined on about 15 % or even 20 %

The ground war may have hit defensive denial primacy or whatever @The_Capt is calling it, but the UA is definitely hitting Russia where it hurts.  If the RA doesn't figure out how to defend against this, there will be a few more "window incidents" in the near future. 

Edited March 16 by sburke

[chrisl]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But there no reason at all the UUVs can't come in slow and quiet. That is why I agree with The_Capt about big ships, unless somebody makes a major breakthrough. 

On the plus side if Taiwan gets on this bandwagon the way it should, the bill the Chinese would have to pay to invade would be astronomically higher.

Naval dolphins may become a MUCH bigger thing.

Even slow boats have fast screws - little propellors don't move much water per turn, so they need more turns, and you have to stay ahead of the currents and wind.  If they want slow drive noise they'd have to go with big paddlewheels, or robotic rowboats that have big flat surfaces that move a lot of water per stroke or per paddle board in the water and probably have a big reflective radar signature.  You can do steam or compressed gas powered for the final couple miles, but those will also have an acoustic signature.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think you have just articulated why Russia cannot simply sit back on defence.  Add to this political considerations etc.  A defensive war against an opponent that can hammer really expensive stuff, like infrastructure - while the same opponents warfighting infrastructure is effectively inside NATO nations is a sure fire way to losing in the long run.

Putin needs to keep the pressure up until something gives because he really has no real other viable options.  If he can get the west to falter and start talking ceasefires, he can then reframe this fiasco as the greatest Russian victory since Bagration.

It is a weird artifact of the current analytical milieu that while everyone has an opinion about the dire effects of loss in Ukraine on the West, nobody spends much time thinking about what a loss would mean for Russia. It's especially odd when we have a recent example of what happens to a post Soviet era successor regime that fails in absorbing a neighbor. I'm talking about, of course, post Gulf War Iraq. 

Putin might hold on. He might manage to stave off further dissolution of state. But the general situation would be a parlous existence of continued sanctions, hostile and well armed neighbors, continued demographic decline and the political evaporation of the Russkiy Mir. In fact, this is exactly what will happen in pretty much every outcome except a decisive victory for Moscow. 

Russia must stay on offense for many of the same reasons Germany did in WWI and if it loses is likely to in a similar way.

 

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Free-Russia fighter from "Liberty for Russia Legion" checks captured Russian recons in Belgorod or Kursk oblast - Typhoon-K MRAP, using by recon brigades is in the cadre.

Russian Volunteer Corps uses captured BTR-82A to fire on the enemy position

 

Edited March 16 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think you have just articulated why Russia cannot simply sit back on defence. 

This is what we've been saying since late February 2022... Putin has no Plan B because there is no Plan B to be had.  Well, except surrendering to end all of this misery.  Show of hands who thinks Putin has even contemplated that?

Since February 2022 I have not been at all surprised, not even a little, that Putin has kept the war going.  He has no realistic option but to continue it.  What has surprised me is how incompetently Plan A has been tweaked and reapplied.  Even with my deeply held belief that Russia Sux™ I expected they would have figured out SOMETHING other than meat assaults up until this point.

That being said, it does seem that Russia is finally getting better at some things.  It's recent drone strikes on previously untouched high profile Western assets (HIMARS and Patriot) are definitely a major improvement for them after more than 1.5 years of coming up empty.  The use of glide bombs, though crude, was also effective and forced Ukraine to do something to counter, though we don't quite fully understand what it is.  Improving the quantity of FPV drones and the effectiveness of using them is another thing to be troubled by.

The trouble for Russia is that all of these improvements are coming late and they don't have an immediate payoff in terms of Russia's stated objectives of occupying much of Ukraine.  All they are doing, at least currently, is making Ukraine pay a higher price for keeping the war going.  And it's not nearly as much as the price Ukraine is imposing upon Russia for continuing the war.  The refineries, air assets, and naval assets lost within the past few weeks are all extremely deep and long term wounds for Russia.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

33 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Even slow boats have fast screws - little propellors don't move much water per turn, so they need more turns, and you have to stay ahead of the currents and wind.  If they want slow drive noise they'd have to go with big paddlewheels, or robotic rowboats that have big flat surfaces that move a lot of water per stroke or per paddle board in the water and probably have a big reflective radar signature.  You can do steam or compressed gas powered for the final couple miles, but those will also have an acoustic signature.

Or ride the current where it's available?
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/15/3025
 

Quote

The most obvious feature shows strong northward sea surface currents off the east coast of Taiwan Island; this is the Kuroshio. In the Taiwan Strait, the sea surface currents are relatively weak compared with that of the Kuroshio. The average sea surface current speed in the Kuroshio region is 0.62 m/s, 0.71 m/s in summer, and 0.55 m/s in winter. In the Taiwan Strait, it is 0.29 m/s on average, 0.32 m/s in summer, and 0.28 m/s in winter. The sea surface currents in the Taiwan Strait generally flow northward but are affected by the topography.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea#Hydrology
 

Quote

Mean surface circulation is cyclonic; waters around the perimeter of the Black Sea circulate in a basin-wide shelfbreak gyre known as the Rim Current. The Rim Current has a maximum velocity of about 50–100 cm/s (20–39 in/s). Within this feature, two smaller cyclonic gyres operate, occupying the eastern and western sectors of the basin.[48] The Eastern and Western Gyres are well-organized systems in the winter but dissipate into a series of interconnected eddies in the summer and autumn. Mesoscale activity in the peripheral flow becomes more pronounced during these warmer seasons and is subject to interannual variability.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Operation in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts still under a fog of war. 

Today we had only free-Russian fighters "presentation" of 25 captured enemies, among them was platoon commander of 45th engineer-sapper brigade of Western military district, which unit set minefield, was attacked and destroyed. 

Free-Russia fighters wrote, Russian aviation is dropping many KABs/FABs on own villages and settlements, and its number is more that was in Bakhmut.  

Russian milbliggers became more pessimistic (therea are no more reports about completely repelled attack) - they report  about fierce clashes, especially in Kozinka and Spodariushyno. Graivoron is under artillery shelling. Belgorod is under periodical MLRS strikes and... under fallings of Pantsyr S1 launch stages. For today more than a dozen buildings got damages, were destroyed and damaged more than two dozens of cars

  

It is interesting to contemplate a situation similar to the left bank of the Dnepr where Russia can't dislodge a bridgehead into its lines (in this case prewar border).  With the last batch of incursions I was sure that the free-Russian fighters would eventually withdraw and they did.  But this time?  Hmmm... I don't know, maybe they are planning on staying.  Even a symbolic occupation of undisputed Russian territory is a pretty significant development.

Steve

[Haiduk]

MiG-29 with AASM Hammer guided bomb

[Kinophile]

Cool. 

 

 

[Kinophile]

Cool. 

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

Samara getting hit again 

Ref the drones used, good thread. 

 

Edited March 16 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Even slow boats have fast screws - little propellors don't move much water per turn, so they need more turns, and you have to stay ahead of the currents and wind.  If they want slow drive noise they'd have to go with big paddlewheels, or robotic rowboats that have big flat surfaces that move a lot of water per stroke or per paddle board in the water and probably have a big reflective radar signature.  You can do steam or compressed gas powered for the final couple miles, but those will also have an acoustic signature.

 

Quote

 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-magnetohydrodynamic-drive-is-realand-you-can-build-one/

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/05/darpa-works-to-make-a-practical-ultraquiet-superconducting-magnet-drive-for-submarines.html

 

There is at least some evidence that DARPA is working on an MHD drive. Apparently one of the biggest problem is that the electrodes wear out, that matters a lot less when it only has to work for ten kilometers, once. 

[omae2]

I was watching some warporn, bad habit of mine, when it realy struck me.

Why dont the ukrainians highjack the russian tv stations when its hight time at saturday or sunday and show a bunch of Ruaf soldier torn apart by drone strikes. Like the whole point of this raid or i dont know what to call it that the free russian legion do is to strike fear into the hearth of the russian population when the election is due. But most of the population getting its information from the tv. That will only tell propaganda. Rest from the net. Seeing the futile death of this young fellas would give them a perspective whats to come when the war reaching them. Seeing the reports of russian army beating back terrorist only enforce the goverment power. Even in their culture that kind of pointless and cruel end is something that surely make an emotional response. So why not they doing that?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It is a weird artifact of the current analytical milieu that while everyone has an opinion about the dire effects of loss in Ukraine on the West, nobody spends much time thinking about what a loss would mean for Russia. It's especially odd when we have a recent example of what happens to a post Soviet era successor regime that fails in absorbing a neighbor. I'm talking about, of course, post Gulf War Iraq. 

Putin might hold on. He might manage to stave off further dissolution of state. But the general situation would be a parlous existence of continued sanctions, hostile and well armed neighbors, continued demographic decline and the political evaporation of the Russkiy Mir. In fact, this is exactly what will happen in pretty much every outcome except a decisive victory for Moscow. 

Russia must stay on offense for many of the same reasons Germany did in WWI and if it loses is likely to in a similar way.

 

 

 

 

Very good point.  I have said before and will re-state here and now, a free fall Russian collapse will make the current war a fond memory compared to what would likely happen next.  Our best case scenario is a slow and steady decline of an isolated Russia until they are pretty much a client state of China, who will of course recognize “being shackled to a corpse” and all that entails.

I think a full Russian failure is in the cards without a major regime change in a direction that simply remains extremely remote - I.e. full Russian pivot back towards democracy and a European facing political ruling class.  The question is really “how fast?”

 

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, chrisl said:

the funny thing is that they refloated the fleet (because he destroyed it on the first day of a two week exercise) and he did it again. Then they just kept changing rules until they validated that they could defend themselves from conventional attacks that they were designed for and pretended attackers would do what they were asked.  Or something like that.

Fixed targets like the kerch bridge are somewhat easier to defend against drones. Basically a lot of nets.  Torpedo nets to several meters deep and up a few meters above the surface for the speedboat drones, birdblock/deer net for the aerial drones (probably so much plastic it will consume a month of russian oil) and radars/missiles for ships and planes. Like a huge aviary.  Ships basically have to be turned into minesweepers/fishing trawlers with nets hanging from bow mounted cranes to get the same kind of net coverage.  On the positive side, they can probably feed the crew from all the sea life they sweep up in the nets.

I used to hate war games where there were “rules” on what we could or couldn’t do. History is full of events wher an opponent didn’t “play by the rules” and the other got smeared because they didn’t think the “inferior” opponent was smart enough to be innovative enough to beat the crap out of them.

i’ve never understood the concept unless it was structured specifically to determine is something was or was not possible, and then to determine the best possible defense against it. One doesn’t do that by designing a training operation and putting rules in place to ensure one gets the results one wants. If one is trying to train some one to “think on their feet,” one doesn’t do that by saying “Oh, but you can’t do this or that. This is one of the reasons one should play CM missions with as many different opponents as possible. No one thinks or sees the the same way. IF EVERYONE’S THINKING THE SAME THING, SOMEONE’S NOT THINKING!

 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is interesting to contemplate a situation similar to the left bank of the Dnepr where Russia can't dislodge a bridgehead into its lines (in this case prewar border).  With the last batch of incursions I was sure that the free-Russian fighters would eventually withdraw and they did.  But this time?  Hmmm... I don't know, maybe they are planning on staying.  Even a symbolic occupation of undisputed Russian territory is a pretty significant development.

Steve

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is interesting to contemplate a situation similar to the left bank of the Dnepr where Russia can't dislodge a bridgehead into its lines (in this case prewar border).  With the last batch of incursions I was sure that the free-Russian fighters would eventually withdraw and they did.  But this time?  Hmmm... I don't know, maybe they are planning on staying.  Even a symbolic occupation of undisputed Russian territory is a pretty significant development.

Steve

Hey, here’s a thought, maybe Belgorod  can hold an election and vote to become part of Ukrain!

Edited March 16 by Vet 0369
Clarity

[Baneman]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

... It will be very interesting to see what the Kremlin says about the campaign against its refining capacity once it is done with its fake election silliness. I can see at least a possibility that Putin goes all in threatening nuclear retaliation over them once it doesn't interfere with the everything is fine theme he has been pushing for this so called campaign.

Although they then have to admit/prove that it's Ukrainian and not a "smoking accident".

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If those USVs bring UAS with them those nets will have to cover the entire ship.  I am interested in a few ideas beat nets.  First are very small unmanned bots who swim in and manually cut the nets up.  Second is tandem attacks.  Third are standoff EFP which will simply blow through the nets.

Surely nets will simply drive the USV's to have a terminal underwater phase ?

38 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I used to hate war games where there were “rules” on what we could or couldn’t do. History is full of events wher an opponent didn’t “play by the rules” and the other got smeared because they didn’t think the “inferior” opponent was smart enough to be innovative enough to beat the crap out of them.

i’ve never understood the concept unless it was structured specifically to determine is something was or was not possible, and then to determine the best possible defense against it. One doesn’t do that by designing a training operation and putting rules in place to ensure one gets the results one wants. If one is trying to train some one to “think on their feet,” one doesn’t do that by saying “Oh, but you can’t do this or that. This is one of the reasons one should play CM missions with as many different opponents as possible. No one thinks or sees the the same way. IF EVERYONE’S THINKING THE SAME THING, SOMEONE’S NOT THINKING!

 

The classic is the Japanese Midway wargames where the Opposing force hid their carriers nearby ( IIRC it was even almost exactly where irl the American carriers were positioned ) and thrashed the attacking force.

That was deemed impossible, the opfor guys were chastised and it was replayed for the Japanese "win".
And then in reality ... 

Edited March 16 by Baneman

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

Pekka brings another good graph. 

Stars n stripes, really? 

Edited March 17 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

Quote

Current situation at Russian refineries

 The Ukrainian Armed Forces are adjusting the volume of Russian oil refining.  The question of whether there will be a fuel shortage is no longer relevant.  The only question is when it will come.  There will be enough supplies for a month and a half

I doubt the Ivans will sit still, but it's certainly a very good amount of damage. 

Edited March 17 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]