dan/california Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Quote https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/12/congress/bucks-out-00146537 Buck announces he will leave Congress early, further driving down GOP majority Buck's decision will leave Republicans with a paltry 218 seats in the chamber, and Speaker Mike Johnson didn't know about the announcement ahead of time. Except that we are literally at the point where a couple of people skipping their flu shots, eating some bad crab cakes, or losing their ability to tolerate the endless stupidity could flip the chamber to the Democrats. A two vote majority isn't really. 34 minutes ago, Eddy said: Yep, I kind of equated it to a private members bill in the UK. More a way of highlighting something than actually getting a bill through. Not exactly the same but hopefully you get my gist. The problem, I'm guessing, is that even though it expresses ire with the current speaker there is not a lot that can change given the divisions the ousting of the previous speaker exposed. Well, on top of the other problems like linking it to the border, Gaza etc. This isn't going to happen, is it? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I had the time to listen to Perun's talk from 9 days ago: Not surprisingly, it was well worth the listen. Regarding the military spending discussion of the past few pages, Perun made two points that are quite relevant. One he made explicitly, the other he made indirectly. The explicit point is it doesn't matter how much or how little Russia is spending on this war if it isn't sustainable within the timeframe Russia needs to "win" this war. He used the example of artillery shells and artillery systems throughout the discussion. As we've pointed out here, it doesn't matter if Russia is producing 3x as many shells as Ukraine receives if it requires 6x that rate to get anything done. It's made even worse if Ukraine only needs maybe the 1 it has to do what it needs to stay in the war. Quantitative superiority of supply without examination of demand is something many people repeatedly (since this war began) fail to take into consideration. Yet it is critical to understanding where things are headed. The indirect point Perun made is about Russia's real costs of fighting this war. He covered a lot of aspects, though he did not directly speak about the inaccuracy of how GDP spending is calculated. What he did do was lay out, without saying so, that there's a large amount of non-military spending that Russia is doing explicitly because of the war that is not counted as part of the defense budget (and therefore not in the GDP calculation). What Perun talked about is how taking away so many men from jobs is driving up the labor costs. This requires wages be raised in order to attract workers who would otherwise go to fight in Ukraine. This has an immediate impact on defense spending because now Russia either needs to increase it's military budget to cover the extra costs or offset those costs by lowering quality and/or lowering the amount of material purchased. None of this is evident in the GDP number. Further, some of these industries that are raising wages aren't in the defense sector. To the degree wages are raised explicitly to compete with military compensation without a proportional increase in GDP contribution (i.e. higher sales levels), then what we see is a hidden military cost. Because if there was no war there would be no increase in military compensation and therefore no extra hit to the economy. But here's the really interesting bit that Perun highlighted... Many of these industries are owned by the Russian government. He cited the case of a government owned business that went bankrupt and was bailed out by a government owned bank. In a more Laissez-faire economy those hits would by the free market and therefore, legitimately, wouldn't be counted as defense spending. Which means every Ruble that is spent shoring up a failing government enterprise is a hidden defense related cost. As Perun put it, Russia is "robbing Peter to pay Peter". It's like the Russian government saying "Our economy earned $100 and we spent $6 buying a bullet. That is 6% military spending. Oh, and we had to spend $3 to bail out the company that makes the bullet because it isn't economically viable any more. But that's not 9% military spending because the bank isn't in the military sector". The point of all this is the actual real world % of Russia's GDP spent on this war is most definitely higher than 6% because there are so many related costs that aren't counted as part of the defense budget. Just something to keep in mind when looking at stats. Everything is relative. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: The point of all this is the actual real world % of Russia's GDP spent on this war is most definitely higher than 6% because there are so many related costs that aren't counted as part of the defense budget. Just something to keep in mind when looking at stats. Everything is relative. Lies, damn lies, statistics, and economic statistics. Reminds me of the old joke! Two economists are walking in the park. As they're walking, they come across a pile of dog ****. One economist says to the other, "If you eat that dog ****, I'll give you $50". The second economist thinks for a minute, then reaches down, picks up the ****, and eats it. The first economist gives him a $50 bill and they keep going on their walk. A few minutes later, they come across another pile of dog ****. This time, the second economist says to the first, "Hey, if you eat that, I'll give you $50." So, of course, the first economist picks up the ****, eats it, and gets $50. Walking a little while farther, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $50 to eat dog ****, then you gave me back the same $50 to eat dog ****. I can't help but feel like we both just ate dog **** for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $100 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) Where the heck is the RuAF... Edited March 13 by Kinophile 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Il-76 Engine fell off, as cause? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Il-76 Engine fell off, as cause? Kinda weird that someone "just happened" to be videoing that particular plane, just at the moment the engine fell off, just before it flew behind obscuring terrain? Edited March 13 by JonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 18 minutes ago, JonS said: Kinda weird that someone "just happened" to be videoing that particular plane, just at the moment the engine fell off, just before it flew behind obscuring terrain? Not sure of the timeline. It's much lower there so is it possible the engine burned through its support and fell? Puts this vid after the seen ones where its higher with flames. Engine matches. Still, four engines down to 3 and it pancakes? Can't even level off? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 You can probably maneuver a plane like that with a dead engine, but a missing one would kind'a throw off the center of gravity a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: Il-76 Engine fell off, as cause? The Boeing guy in charge of doors just got a job there. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pugstorm Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, MikeyD said: You can probably maneuver a plane like that with a dead engine, but a missing one would kind'a throw off the center of gravity a bit. As well as a asymmetric lift and drag profile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: Not sure of the timeline. It's much lower there so is it possible the engine burned through its support and fell? Puts this vid after the seen ones where its higher with flames. Engine matches. Still, four engines down to 3 and it pancakes? Can't even level off? If the fire had caused enough damage that the engine fell off, then their might well be significant damage and weakening in the wing above as well (and e.g. in the electrics and mechanisms for the flaps for landing). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 There were more strikes against Russian petro industry this night. Four refineries or depots hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.I. Joe Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 49 minutes ago, TheVulture said: If the fire had caused enough damage that the engine fell off, then their might well be significant damage and weakening in the wing above as well (and e.g. in the electrics and mechanisms for the flaps for landing). Agreed. Losing power from one engine on a four engine aircraft generally shouldn't be too serious an emergency. Even the weight shift and asymmetric drag from having it fall off would probably not be too hugely significant (the engine would likely be close to the C of G in that position), but the fire and whatever else may have caused it to fall off hints at other systems and structural damage... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardiebloke Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Not convinced this will make any difference whatsoever but I would take it as a sign that the BSF isn't doing so well. Quote Russia tightlipped on reports navy commander sunk by Black Sea losses https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/11/kremlin-declines-to-comment-if-naval-chief-sacked 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 An update from Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi: https://t.me/osirskiy/615 Quote Today's day began with moving to the area of operations in the direction of the enemy's active actions. I worked in two brigades, where the situation is gradually becoming more complicated and there is a threat of enemy units advancing deep into our battle formations. After a detailed analysis and assessment of the situation, together with the commanders and officers of the headquarters, all necessary decisions were made regarding the reinforcement of the specified military units with reserves, ammunition, and EW means, which will in the future ensure the stability of our defense on this part of the front. In general, the operational situation on the Eastern Front remains difficult. The enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, concentrating the main efforts in Terna, Ivanovske, Berdychi, Tonenke, Verbove and Robotine districts. At the same time, probably due to the high level of losses, the activity of the enemy in other areas of the front decreased significantly. This happened thanks to timely management decisions to strengthen the defense of this section of the front, timely replacement of units that lost their combat capability, as well as due to the courage and resilience of our soldiers. During two weeks of fierce fighting, the enemy suffered extremely high losses. However, all the settlements that he tried to capture remained under our control. Together with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, state and departmental awards were presented to our servicemen who distinguished themselves in battles with the Russian aggressor. At the same time, there are still enough issues that need to be resolved on the spot, so we continue our work. We will win! Glory to Ukraine! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) RUS get to 3 [in fact 2- third fly away] Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters. Everything observed from RUS drone. First, one missile with a cluster warhead flew (judging by the number of charges, Tornado rather than Iskander) and after two damaged machines could not fly away - single hits with precision ammunition. Unfortunately, in the current conditions, the Russian reconnaissance and strike complex has achieved the efficiency it was expected to have before the war. In 2022, for many reasons, it did not work out, in 2023 it worked on average, but unfortunately this year we already see the mythical <5 minutes for HVT (high-value targets). Currently, there is no margin for error for Ukrainians. Of course, this is only the result of the fact that RUS drones fly 40-80 km at home in the Ukrainian hinterland. Event took place 11.03; in one of helicopters both pilots were killed according to other Ukrianian channels (as always,treat his considerations with grian of salt whenc omes to details, but clip seems genuine. Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines) Edited March 13 by Beleg85 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 16 hours ago, ASL Veteran said: Who is sponsoring the discharge petition? If it's a Democrat I wouldn't put too much into that - it's possible it could go through, but every Republican who pushes this forward is basically torpedoing the speaker's authority and he would then become ineffective at moving future legislation going forward (the Speaker of the House must be able to get his caucus to agree to different things to pass legislation and if his authority is undermined then he would be ineffective). So that basically means the Republicans would need to find a new Speaker. I'm not sure how many Republicans want to go through that again just to pass this (as important as this is to some here, the US has a lot of big issues to tackle). Besides, none of us on this board know what's going on within the Republican caucus - the leadership likely already has a plan / agreement on what to do. There are a lot of Democrats who will refuse to vote for this as well simply because they don't want to agree to anything that sends money to Israel. I haven't seen anyone talking / writing about this Discharge Petition and if nobody is talking about it then I doubt it has any legs - but we'll see. The votes might be there to pass it if the Speaker brings it to the floor, but just because the votes might there for regular order that doesn't mean that a Discharge Petition will succeed. Even if every Democrat signed it (and not every one will) you would basically have to get enough Republicans to sign on and then look for a new Speaker of the House. The thing to understand right now is that the Speaker already has no authority. His sole leverage is that nobody wants to go through another debac-tacular leadership election again. And with Buck's retirement and NY23 coming up, the Republican margin will be down to 1 vote for a while. It will then go back up to...2. So, there is little Johnson can do to punish recalcitrant members and plenty they can do to ruin his day, every day. The inescapable fact the derives from the above is that there is no plan or agreement. Johnson is a cipher...and Trump's cipher at that...in the House. He has no party loyalty to rely on (as Jefferies does) and his team is made up of pols who have more experience, cliques that support them, etc (i.e. Scalise, Jordan). What plan there is, is simply to stymie aid as long as possible because that's what Trump wants. Thus, the discharge petition. To the vote, that the discharge petition is even happening tells you it has legs and in this case there are actually two (one from a Democrat and one from a Republican) but it is a hard road to travel and it takes time. How would the vote go? You probably lose about 10 to 15 Democrats but you also probably gain 70 to 100 Republicans. If the vote were a secret ballot, you probably would get 150 plus. Ukraine aid is that rare thing...it is truly popular and bipartisan. If they get the discharge to the finish line, it almost certainly passes...Johnson be damned. Edited March 13 by billbindc 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: RUS get to 3 [in fact 2- third fly away] Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters. Everything observed from RUS drone. First, one missile with a cluster warhead flew (judging by the number of charges, Tornado rather than Iskander) and after two damaged machines could not fly away - single hits with precision ammunition. Unfortunately, in the current conditions, the Russian reconnaissance and strike complex has achieved the efficiency it was expected to have before the war. In 2022, for many reasons, it did not work out, in 2023 it worked on average, but unfortunately this year we already see the mythical <5 minutes for HVT (high-value targets). Currently, there is no margin for error for Ukrainians. Of course, this is only the result of the fact that RUS drones fly 40-80 km at home in the Ukrainian hinterland. Event took place 11.03; in one of helicopters both pilots were killed according to other Ukrianian channels (as always,treat his considerations with grian of salt whenc omes to details, but clip seems genuine. Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines) Russia starts to work like a modern military. Concerning if this becomes routine. Ukraine does not have enough systems for consistent air denial for drones over the whole frontline and behind. Unless something new appear (drone interceptors to counter drones), this will continue to be painful. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 58 minutes ago, Carolus said: Russia starts to work like a modern military. Concerning if this becomes routine. Ukraine does not have enough systems for consistent air denial for drones over the whole frontline and behind. Unless something new appear (drone interceptors to counter drones), this will continue to be painful. I'd argue it's already routine. This is the 4-5th video I've seen of deep strikes in the last month. But, UKR typically doesn't sit and suffer like the Ivans. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 ... June? Not.. Great.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Carolus said: Russia starts to work like a modern military. Concerning if this becomes routine. Ukraine does not have enough systems for consistent air denial for drones over the whole frontline and behind. Unless something new appear (drone interceptors to counter drones), this will continue to be painful. Ukraine is going to have to adapt as Russia did to the initial threat of HIMARS. For example, not parking 3 helicopters so close together. Yes, it complicates logistics, but having logistics simplified by having 3 less helicopters to support isn't a great outcome. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 hours ago, kimbosbread said: Lies, damn lies, statistics, and economic statistics. Reminds me of the old joke! Two economists are walking in the park. As they're walking, they come across a pile of dog ****. One economist says to the other, "If you eat that dog ****, I'll give you $50". The second economist thinks for a minute, then reaches down, picks up the ****, and eats it. The first economist gives him a $50 bill and they keep going on their walk. A few minutes later, they come across another pile of dog ****. This time, the second economist says to the first, "Hey, if you eat that, I'll give you $50." So, of course, the first economist picks up the ****, eats it, and gets $50. Walking a little while farther, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $50 to eat dog ****, then you gave me back the same $50 to eat dog ****. I can't help but feel like we both just ate dog **** for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $100 Good one! For sure the GDP numbers for all countries are so flawed it's hard to conceive of them being useful, but the fact is they are used for all kinds of things. Including our discussion here. It's so easy to take a statistic at face value and make judgements based on them. We here need to keep in mind that we're better than that We should always poke and prod the stats put in front of us to suss out applicability and accuracy to whatever point is being made. In the recent GDP discussion it is probably true that Ukraine is spending a bigger % of its economy on this war than Russia is. That's logical and we don't need GDP numbers to come up with that. However, it doesn't automatically follow that Russia can afford this war longer than Ukraine. First and foremost because fundamentally Russia's war is a war of choice and Ukraine's is a war of necessity. That makes a difference. Perun's talk also emphasized that there's a difference between economic activities during a war and after. It is entirely possible that Russia has to end the war because it is not economically feasible to continue it, but also possible that it can bounce back faster and stronger than Ukraine even though Ukraine "won" the war. Note that I said possible, because I for sure don't think it is probable. Anyway, Perun's point was that economies during a war function differently than economies after one. Russia's costs during this war are horrific, but the costs to it after are possibly much worse. Many of us here have argued that Russia is fooked long after this war unless a better form of government takes over. And even then... Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Per our earlier conversation, I think this gives a good sense of how willing the House is to defy the former guy when something is really popular: 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/12/2024 at 8:34 AM, The_MonkeyKing said: https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/30664/ukraine-battlefield-dynamics-manpower-fortifications-and-ammunition/ My notes: They made another trip to UKR front lines. They are doing these around every 3months. Ukraine's Challenges: Ukraine faces a triple threat with manpower, fortifications, and ammunition shortages. Mobilization remains stalled at political level, hindering long-term force generation. This decision also has a long lead time to effects on the battlefield Last year we saw you cannot make brigades in couple of months Fortifications are being worked on now, but only lately. Ammunition depends on external factors like US aid and Europe commitment drones are going to help to bridge the gap to an extent. These problems are the same as last trip three months ago. Ukraine leadership changes are still an unknown. Generally seems the leadership is on the same page about the main challenges as the front line troops The war is at an intersection. Many things can go either way, US support, UKR mobilization... Depending on these the war can change radically. Even a Harkiv-style collapse for the Ukrainians is not out of the question on the "bad timelines". Overly extended summer offensive and pointless commitment of reserves to those attacks have depleted Ukraine Especially Ukrainian infantry has been under extreme strain, battalion might be in OK condition but only have a couple of platoons of fully mission-capable infantry. Unlikely to see any strategic level offensives from the Ukrainians in 2024 Some Russian challenges: Russian Force Quality: While a concern in 2023, Russia has demonstrated a capacity to sustain casualties and maintain a baseline level of force quality. This has been shown in practice during the summers stubborn defense and the bloody assaults we are now seeing. UKR has reported increased discipline and executions by the RU Manpower: So far Russia has been able to compensate for it casualties with recruitment. This has been surprisingly successful. Several 100k last year and now in the tens of thousands a month. Unkown how long Russia can keep up. If they cannot a new mobilization wave is going to be required. Equipment availability: Main limiting factor for the Russians at this moment. Ukraine's Evolving Tactics: Shortage of Soviet-era AA ammunition is a major concern. and now also western ammunition UKR is having increasing success with small mobile AA defenses (MANPADS, AAA, HMG) supported by well integrated sensors and coordination. This is against RU cruise missiles and suicide drones. Especially in parts of the front UKR is developing integration of assets, intelligence and troops to a whole new level. Big steps compared to three months ago Drone war moving more towards competition in quality and integration rather than quantity. Ukraine Battlefield Dynamics Manpower, Fortifications, and Ammunition.mp3 45.48 MB · 857 downloads Thanks for your consistent monitoring of this important OSINT analysis. We might not always agree with Kofman (OK, we often disagree), but he's out there gathering facts with a professional background that is to be respected. I wonder how much of the decision to do a wholesale military leadership change was based on some of the fundamentals that Kofman points out haven't been improved by the previous leadership. It would appear manpower generation, at the very least, is something that is seeing early and significant attention. Kofman's point about the tail end of the summer offensive is valid. I think many of us here share the opinion that the offensive should have been ended earlier. Though some of that is definitely coming as hindsight, it did seem that the last phase of fighting wasn't bearing fruit and throwing the last reserves into it wasn't the best course of action. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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