How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

36 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I don't think a flechette round is going to do anything that your basic 5.56/7.62 isn't- the problem looks more like drones are very difficult to hit, rather than current ammunition doesn't do enough damage.

It's got me wondering though- how big do jammers need to be to be effective? Could you stick one inside a 40mm grenade with a parachute and bloop them off into the sky a la instant EW barrage balloons?

What about a magazine fed AGL with 40mm HEAB in combination with new nifty sights for range acquisition?

https://soldiersystems.net/2023/03/01/enforce-tac-23-rheinmetall-squad-support-weapon-40/

[Billy Ringo]

Is it remotely possible that, with several re-iterations of development, drones coupled with AI will be so advanced and cost efficient to produce in mass that warfare simply isn't tenable on the battlefield?  Autonomous battles that don't gain nor hold ground.  Simply devastate and kill other technologies.  Tanks, ships, aircraft can't reasonably be protected.

Unlike the know-how and cost of nuclear weapons, drones will be available to virtually any force at some point in the future.  (Technology advancements are typically exponential, so what we see in 10 years will likely be "decades" ahead of what we see today.)

Just thinking outside of the box here...

 

Edited March 7 by Billy Ringo
addition

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is it remotely possible that, with several re-iterations of development, drones coupled with AI will be so advanced and cost efficient to produce in mass that warfare simply isn't tenable on the battlefield?  Autonomous battles that don't gain nor hold ground.  Simply devastate and kill other technologies.

Unlike the know-how and cost of nuclear weapons, drones will be available to virtually any force at some point in the future.  (Technology advancements are typically exponential, so what we see in 10 years will likely be "decades" ahead of what we see today.)

Just thinking outside of the box here...

 

Can a Type I civilization (or one heading that way) still wage war without destroying itself?  I think the answer is "yes" but likely not if they are all on a single planet.  So future swarming AI becoming a WMD on par with nuclear of bio weapons is a possibility, and even may create a temporary Great Peace.  However, as soon as humans spread out over the solar system we will lose the ability to fill it all with AI killbots - space being really, really big.

Or we ignore the dangers and simply kill ourselves out before we get that far.

Edited March 7 by The_Capt

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am honestly amazed that anything I write causes anyone to think about anything “all day”, but that must be the pressure of Canadian culture.

 

Imagine how his boss feels.  This was a workday after all.

[The_Capt]

Just now, sburke said:

Imagine how his boss feels.  This was a workday after all.

JonS strikes me as a "retired gentleman of leisure".  Sitting on his back veranda watching "the labour" work his plantation while he ponders the modern mysteries of humanity. 

[Carolus]

10 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is it remotely possible that, with several re-iterations of development, drones coupled with AI will be so advanced and cost efficient to produce in mass that warfare simply isn't tenable on the battlefield?  Autonomous battles that don't gain nor hold ground.  Simply devastate and kill other technologies.

Unlike the know-how and cost of nuclear weapons, drones will be available to virtually any force at some point in the future.  (Technology advancements are typically exponential, so what we see in 10 years will likely be "decades" ahead of what we see today.)

Just thinking outside of the box here...

 

At that point it simply comes down to who has more production lines and the resources to feed them as swarm is pushing against swarm to reach the other side's power plants or other strategic nodes which disrupt output. 

[sburke]

That brilliant mastermind Putin finally succeeded in forcing Sweden into NATO.  A very stable genius!

 

[kimbosbread]

31 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is it remotely possible that, with several re-iterations of development, drones coupled with AI will be so advanced and cost efficient to produce in mass that warfare simply isn't tenable on the battlefield?  Autonomous battles that don't gain nor hold ground.  Simply devastate and kill other technologies.  Tanks, ships, aircraft can't reasonably be protected.

The critical limitation is range/power. If these are battery or fuel powered, and they wanna fly, there’s a serious issue with persistence.

[mediocreman]

Hi,

As a Swede I thought today would be a good day to stop lurking for a bit and drop a comment. Been playing cm for 20 years and following this forum for a long time.

Thank you all for contributing to this thread, checking it daily. Always a good source for news and discussion, so much knowledge and experience gathered is hard to get elsewhere. 

I always was all for our countrys neutral stance combined with a strong Defense but last decade has of course swayed us all in Sweden a bit. I have my background in the army, cv90. Seeing us finally start to retake our capabilities regarding defense is good.

Anyways thanks for having us in the club I guess (why am I thinking about brothers Marx)?

Carl 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, mediocreman said:

Hi,

As a Swede I thought today would be a good day to stop lurking for a bit and drop a comment. Been playing cm for 20 years and following this forum for a long time.

Thank you all for contributing to this thread, checking it daily. Always a good source for news and discussion, so much knowledge and experience gathered is hard to get elsewhere. 

I always was all for our countrys neutral stance combined with a strong Defense but last decade has of course swayed us all in Sweden a bit. I have my background in the army, cv90. Seeing us finally start to retake our capabilities regarding defense is good.

Anyways thanks for having us in the club I guess (why am I thinking about brothers Marx)?

Carl 

We all know what this...and don't try to deny it.  This is Sweden's inevitable march to global furniture dominance.  NATO spending will be siphoned to a blooming Swedish military office furniture line and reinforce the home market.  As we fight for the Global South, it is all just a cover for selling more "Bekväm" chairs.  It all ends with Sweden ruling our bums - or at least where we put them - like emperors

By 2125 the entire world will be living on Swedish smart furniture on three different planets.  

[Kinophile]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However, as soon as humans spread out over the solar system we will lose the ability to fill it all with AI killbots - space being really, really big.

Greg Bear would beg to differ.

The Forge of God

Anvil of Stars

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We all know what this...and don't try to deny it.  This is Sweden's inevitable march to global furniture dominance.  NATO spending will be siphoned to a blooming Swedish military office furniture line and reinforce the home market.  As we fight for the Global South, it is all just a cover for selling more "Bekväm" chairs.  It all ends with Sweden ruling our bums - or at least where we put them - like emperors

By 2125 the entire world will be living on Swedish smart furniture on three different planets.  

Sounds pretty good, tbh. 

I, for one, welcome our future Svehdish Overlords - Hej! Hej! Hej! 

[Kinophile]

Czechs FTW yet again 

https://kyivindependent.com/czech-company-invest-hundreds-of-millions/

[Kinophile]

Moldova has zero time for RUS nonsense 

https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-signs-defense-deal-with-france-macron-pledges-unwavering-support-against-russian-threat/

[beardiebloke]

Saw this and thought it was pretty wild.  Drone fitted with a really long spool of fiber optic cable to avoid EW.  Obvious practical issues but if the distance is not so great it should work.

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C4N23bHKkBN

[omae2]

I'm just throw this up because it crossed my mind and i wonder what other would say, but i feel like we getting to an age where firepower is getting less important than processing power.

I know it sounds stupid but hear me out.
 

Unmanned vehicles going to take over basic roles that was operated by flesh. That means that physical limitation gonna be widen. What we see now is really the most primitive part of unmanned assets. They gonna evolve rapidly.

For example an UAV now is fairly limited by the pilot but once it has autonomy its gonna do ridiculous maneuvers to avoid fire and hit the target. Which means that target tracking with fire have to kept on a level of the capabilities of the UAV. Most of the aa systems are operating in a fairly limited range, trying to shoot down things that cannot change directions quickly. As soon as this range widens the old system will not be able to shot down new assets in time.

So because you can only defend things for a certain point with armor but the main effort gonna be to hit the target on a weak spot with certainty.

For that you need a lot semi conductors and micro electronic manufacturing capabilities. Explosive size don't have to be big, its the spot where the hit happens that matter. So high tech armies gonna be able to do things without flesh. Basically no political backlash from intervention or invasion cause you have nobody that is effected in your voting pool.

[mediocreman]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We all know what this...and don't try to deny it.  This is Sweden's inevitable march to global furniture dominance.  NATO spending will be siphoned to a blooming Swedish military office furniture line and reinforce the home market.  As we fight for the Global South, it is all just a cover for selling more "Bekväm" chairs.  It all ends with Sweden ruling our bums - or at least where we put them - like emperors

By 2125 the entire world will be living on Swedish smart furniture on three different planets.  

It's that obvious is it? Well, our pm Kristofferson was just quoted saying "it is a new epoch for Sweden" so I am not gone deny any rumors of an aspiring empire of "klöka"-sofas and meatballs 

On topic, one of the CV90:s operating in Ukraine right now I was a crew member on when we tried them for desert conditions at fort Irwin back in 07. Happy to see that they perform well in Ukraine and save lives of their current crews. Wish we send more cv:s and hopefully our Jas 39 Gripen aswell. I think there is strong political will actually for sending fighters.

[Tenses]

17 minutes ago, omae2 said:

I'm just throw this up because it crossed my mind and i wonder what other would say, but i feel like we getting to an age where firepower is getting less important than processing power.

I know it sounds stupid but hear me out.
 

Unmanned vehicles going to take over basic roles that was operated by flesh. That means that physical limitation gonna be widen. What we see now is really the most primitive part of unmanned assets. They gonna evolve rapidly.

For example an UAV now is fairly limited by the pilot but once it has autonomy its gonna do ridiculous maneuvers to avoid fire and hit the target. Which means that target tracking with fire have to kept on a level of the capabilities of the UAV. Most of the aa systems are operating in a fairly limited range, trying to shoot down things that cannot change directions quickly. As soon as this range widens the old system will not be able to shot down new assets in time.

So because you can only defend things for a certain point with armor but the main effort gonna be to hit the target on a weak spot with certainty.

For that you need a lot semi conductors and micro electronic manufacturing capabilities. Explosive size don't have to be big, its the spot where the hit happens that matter. So high tech armies gonna be able to do things without flesh. Basically no political backlash from intervention or invasion cause you have nobody that is effected in your voting pool.

We need MALE class drones with laser dome zapping 10 small drones at a time at horizontal distance of 20km. THAT firepower, time to deliver and cost effectiveness would put as back at the point, where tanks(unmanned) and other stuff is back as a primary force projection in land warfare.

 

As we are nowhere near this kind of technology we will have to make something up as a stopgap to avoid ugly brawl as we see now. 

Edited March 7 by Tenses
spelling

[kimbosbread]

17 minutes ago, Tenses said:

We need MALE class drones with laser dome zapping 10 small drones at a time at horizontal distance of 20km. THAT firepower, time to deliver and cost effectiveness would put as back at the point…

What do you mean by “cost effectiveness”!???? Airborne lasers and associated power systems are never cheap nor light!

I think very small missiles are the best bet: Basically a small, optimized drone with limited endurance (or even a little solid rocket motor) that can be fired off your bigger platform. Unit cost needs to be on the order of $1000 or less. Big challenge in my mind is the missiles targeting system. Ghetto thermal is probably not enough range or resolution at missile speeds, radar is presumably too heavy and complex, and optical seems like it wouldn’t give you range or resolution either. Starstreak’s laser grid approach seems like it might be economical, but it requires more complexity on the launch platform presumably.

If your micro missile was two stage: Electric prop until target acquisition by sensor, and then solid rocket boost for last 0.5-3km, would that work? Or is pure electric prop fine?

[The_Capt]

49 minutes ago, omae2 said:

I'm just throw this up because it crossed my mind and i wonder what other would say, but i feel like we getting to an age where firepower is getting less important than processing power.

I know it sounds stupid but hear me out.
 

Unmanned vehicles going to take over basic roles that was operated by flesh. That means that physical limitation gonna be widen. What we see now is really the most primitive part of unmanned assets. They gonna evolve rapidly.

For example an UAV now is fairly limited by the pilot but once it has autonomy its gonna do ridiculous maneuvers to avoid fire and hit the target. Which means that target tracking with fire have to kept on a level of the capabilities of the UAV. Most of the aa systems are operating in a fairly limited range, trying to shoot down things that cannot change directions quickly. As soon as this range widens the old system will not be able to shot down new assets in time.

So because you can only defend things for a certain point with armor but the main effort gonna be to hit the target on a weak spot with certainty.

For that you need a lot semi conductors and micro electronic manufacturing capabilities. Explosive size don't have to be big, its the spot where the hit happens that matter. So high tech armies gonna be able to do things without flesh. Basically no political backlash from intervention or invasion cause you have nobody that is effected in your voting pool.

Not stupid at all.  Precision is reliant on processing power.  So is speed.  Those two factors relieve firepower requirement pressures which we used to deliver through massed fires.  This explains why the UA is using far less artillery ammunition in this war yet is have greater effects than RA fires.

Precision beats mass.  But massed precision beat everything.  Which of course will require greater processing power.  It is why data and processing are to my mind more important than ammo and fuel right now.  Yet when you ask a roomful of officers “what is our data advantage?”  You are likely going to get blank stares.

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, mediocreman said:

It's that obvious is it? Well, our pm Kristofferson was just quoted saying "it is a new epoch for Sweden" so I am not gone deny any rumors of an aspiring empire of "klöka"-sofas and meatballs

It makes sense.  You contact Amazon to get your drones, but Ikea to get your CV-90 and Gripen

51 minutes ago, mediocreman said:

On topic, one of the CV90:s operating in Ukraine right now I was a crew member on when we tried them for desert conditions at fort Irwin back in 07. Happy to see that they perform well in Ukraine and save lives of their current crews. Wish we send more cv:s and hopefully our Jas 39 Gripen aswell. I think there is strong political will actually for sending fighters.

Let's also not forget that the CV-90 is a sexy beast.  That has to count for something, doesn't it?  I had the rare privilege of sitting inside one of the last remaining S-Tank (Stridsvagn 103) and it was like a high end Volvo with a gun.  A beautiful piece of military hardware.

Thanks for delurking!  Always fun to know whose hanging around reading this thread.

Steve

[Vacillator]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

It all ends with Sweden ruling our bums - or at least where we put them

They don't do toilets yet?  Or do they?  Sorry, OT so I'll disappear again.

[Eddy]

General Zaluzhnyi's sabbatical was short lived. Got himself a nice easy gig  

Valerii Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine appoints ex-army chief as UK ambassador - BBC News 

[FancyCat]

what about EW tho? the last RUSI stated drones were dropping like flies due to EW, what prevents just the proliferation of EW anti-drone platforms? Aside from expensive missiles that strike them of course. But at that point, its egg and chicken. 

Also, a key issue for non-manned platforms is of course, the ability for the enemy to take over, seen on one hand with EW, once they lose connection, they generally fall to the ground, sure, the ability for self-contained instructions can occur, but at that point, its just a missile sorta, networking them together into a cohesive unit requires connecting them to talk to one another. And we aren't near enough to AI to deploy independent robots and definitely not near enough for them to back fire on the deployer. 

[cesmonkey]

Quote

Citizens from LAC countries have also played a more direct role in the conflict as foreign fighters for both sides. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publish exact data on the number or nationality of LAC fighters who join their ranks, but estimates range from several hundred to more than a thousand fighters total spread across each front. 

On February 23, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, sat down with Elizabeth M.F. Grasmeder, Adjunct Professor of National Security Policy with Duke University, and Andrei Serbin Pont, Executive Director of CRIES-LAC, for a conversation on X (formerly Twitter) about the role of foreign fights from LAC on both sides in Ukraine. Together, they unpacked the motivations of fighters for joining both Ukraine and Russia, why Moscow and Kyiv have turned to recruiting foreign fighters, and the broader implications of war in Ukraine for Latin American countries. 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-years-later-lac-and-russias-war-ukraine
Two Years Later: LAC and Russia’s War in Ukraine